KTFA: Vietnam

Henig: Economic growth and market upgrade to draw capital

February, 02/2023 - 10:48

HÀ NỘI — The prospect of economic growth and market upgradation is the driving force to attract cash flow into the stock market.

Việt Nam is among the world's fastest-growing economies with an average GDP growth rate of about 6.5 per cent per year in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The target of economic growth in 2021-2025 at 6.5-7 per cent per year was set out at the 13th National Party Congress despite the fact that the economy was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. However, VinaCapital forecasts that this growth can still be maintained in the 2023-25 period.

High economic growth will support the companies listed on the stock market. In 2023, the business results of listed companies may be affected by the slowing growth of exports and consumption and high interest rates. The earnings per share (EPS) growth is forecast to be in single digits in 2023.

However, from 2024, when inflationary pressures are gone, central banks around the world can loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy, and at the same time, the internal difficulties and challenges of the economy will be tackled, Việt Nam's economy will recover, and the stock market's EPS growth is likely to return to double digits.

Infrastructure investment will remain a priority focus of the Government for many years to come and will have a positive impact on the economy in the long term.

In July 2022, the Government issued Resolution No. 86/NQ-CP on the development of a safe, transparent, efficient and sustainable capital market in order to stabilise the macro-economy, and mobilise resources for socio-economic development.

The Resolution stressed the need to urgently implement measures to upgrade Việt Nam's stock market from the frontier market to the emerging market to attract investment capital. Currently, the stock exchanges and securities companies are testing the new trading system KRX, which can meet the requirements of launching new products, shorten the transaction time, and help the Vietnamese stock market meet the requirements of upgradation.

According to VinaCapital, the growth prospect of Việt Nam's economy in the next 3-5 years and the prospect of upgradation will be an important driving force to attract cash flow from both domestic and foreign investors. The size of the stock market will continue to expand thanks to increased liquidity and there are still many new companies likely to list in the coming years.

Both the Vietnamese economy and stock market are still in a high growth phase for at least the next five years, VinaCapital said.

VinaCapital also cited factors that are forecast to positively affect the market in 2023, including inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, public investment, and China's reopening.

Specifically, global inflation is likely to have passed its peak. The Bloomberg Global Commodity Index peaked in June 2022 and was down about 16 per cent by the end of 2022. US inflation also peaked at 9.1 per cent in June 2022, from where it started decreasing.

Central banks will be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. In 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates seven times. The Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates in 2023, but the increase will be much less than in 2022 as inflation pressure has subsided.

Pressure on domestic interest rates and exchange rates has decreased significantly. Specifically, the overnight interbank interest rate fell below 5.0 per cent by the end of 2022. Also in December 2022, credit institutions agreed to apply the maximum deposit interest rate of 9.5 per cent for all tenors, while previously, there were some small banks that pushed deposit rates up to 11-12 per cent.

In addition, public investment will be speeded up in 2023. The National Assembly has approved a public investment plan in 2023 with a total capital of over VNĐ700 trillion, an increase of about 25 per cent compared to the plan in 2022.

In addition, China ending the zero-COVID policy and reopening the economy will have a positive impact on the Vietnamese economy, especially the tourism sector. In the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese tourists accounted for nearly one-third of international visitors to Việt Nam. In addition, the reopening of China's economy will help reduce input costs for Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises using materials imported from China, and will promote exports from Việt Nam to China, especially for agricultural products, VinaCapital forecasts.

— VNS LINK

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Henig: FTAs provide a push for Việt Nam’s exports in 2023

February, 02/2023 - 14:00

The 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) to which Việt Nam is a member are expected to give a boost to Việt Nam’s export activities this year, towards the growth target of 6 per cent.

HÀ NỘI — The 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) to which Việt Nam is a member are expected to give a boost to Việt Nam’s export activities this year, towards the growth target of 6 per cent.

Phúc Sinh JSC, based in HCM City, has exported 50 containers of coffee, pepper, cashew nut and other products to Europe, the US and the Middle East in early 2023.

The company shipped about US$50 million worth of goods to Europe in 2020 and $63 million in 2021, which grew some 30 per cent last year.

It is among the hundreds of domestic firms that are effectively utilising the FTAs, contributing to raising Việt Nam’s agro-export revenue to over $53 billion in 2022.

Chairman and General Director of Phúc Sinh JSC Phan Minh Thông noted that with tax incentives, the deals will help Vietnamese goods compete with those from other countries despite difficulties forecast for this year as many major importers are expected to face inflation.

Import-export was Việt Nam’s bright spot in 2022, hitting a record of around $730.2 billion, of which $371.5 billion came from exports, statistics show.

Notably, thanks to the EU-Việt Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), garment-textile exports to the EU reached $4.46 billion, representing a year-on-year rise of 34.7 per cent.

The sector is projected to rake in $47-48 billion this year, which is within its reach as the FTAs will accelerate the relocation of investment from other countries to Việt Nam, according to Chairman of the Việt Nam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) Vũ Đức Giang.

Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên also held that the agreements will further prove their role this year as the market share of many key exports still remains limited in foreign countries.

— VNS LINK

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Henig: Food and beverage industry to do well this year despite modest economy

February, 03/2023 - 08:14

The food and beverage market is forecast to grow by over 18 per cent this year to VNĐ720 trillion (US$31 billion).

HCM CITY — The food and beverage market is forecast to grow by over 18 per cent this year to VNĐ720 trillion (US$31 billion).

A recent report by iPOS.vn said that, after an impressive rebound in 2022, the F&B industry is poised to achieve “sustainable growth”.

It predicted the market to top VNĐ938 trillion ($40 billion) by 2026.

It expected big players to push strongly this year to gain market share but smaller ones to exercise caution since the economic difficulties would continue in 2023.

New brands like Phê La and Katinat Saigon Kafe would enter, it said.

It forecast some business models to struggle in 2023, including food delivery because sellers would have to reduce their prices to be competitive.

The model developed strongly when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

A representative of Golden Trust, a company in food and beverage sector, told Việt Nam News that he expected "stable development", but brands should ensure quality in all aspects from infrastructure to services.

A report from Momentum Works said Southeast Asia’s food delivery spending grew by a modest 5 per cent to $16.3 billion in 2022 after a two-year COVID-driven boom.

For the first time in three years growth was driven by the smallest markets, the Philippines, Malaysia and Việt Nam.

Food delivery players in the region, including in Việt Nam, exited unprofitable businesses and markets, it said.

“Major players pivoted away from cost-intensive business models such as dark stores for groceries and dark kitchens for food delivery. This trend is expected to continue into 2023…”

Việt Nam has around 338,600 restaurants and coffee shops, with HCM City accounting for nearly 49 per cent followed by Hà Nội.

The food and beverage market was worth around VNĐ610 trillion ($26 billion) last year.

Of the 3,000 restaurants and coffee shops that took part in a survey done by iPOS.vn for its report, over 46 per cent said they do not have online service. But 83 per cent of them have started to digitise and adopt technology.

Đỗ Duy Thanh, F&B director of Horeca Business School, was quoted by markettimes.vn as saying that when an economy faces difficulties, investors flock back to industries that have high demand, and F&B is an example.

He expected that many new high-end restaurants to open this year.

The slump in the property market would cause people owning properties in good locations to invest in F&B hoping that would attract customers and thus push up the price of their property, he said.

According to the survey, Vietnamese consumers are ready to pay VNĐ40,000-VNĐ70,000 for a beverage, and VNĐ500,000 on special occasions.

Over 77 per cent of consumers said they would continue to spend at this rate or more in 2023.

— VNS LINK

Henig: Bình Phước seeks to become modern industrial province

February, 03/2023 - 09:24

The south-eastern province of Bình Phước is seeking to develop its infrastructure and reform administrative procedures to achieve rapid and sustainable development this decade.

BÌNH PHƯỚC – The south-eastern province of Bình Phước is seeking to develop its infrastructure and reform administrative procedures to achieve rapid and sustainable development this decade.

To industrialise, it plans to build roads to connect with neighbouring Đồng Nai and other provinces in the southern region.

The roads will also be connected with major traffic routes in the region, the Cái Mép-Thị Vải Port in Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu and the Long Thành International Airport in Đồng Nai Province.

The province also plans to build 35 industrial clusters in its 11 districts and towns by 2030 at a cost of VNĐ5.9 trillion (US$260 million).

Of them, 21 will be built on 583ha of land from now to 2025, and the other 14 will be built subsequently on another 580ha.

Priority will be given to technology, including information technology, supporting industries, agriculture, environmental protection, culture, sports, tourism, and healthcare, according to the provincial People’s Committee.

The industries to be developed include agricultural processing, rubber and plastic, metal, electronics, automobile components, and textiles and apparel.

They are expected to create around 30,000 jobs.

The demand for housing is expected to grow because of the new industrial zones.

Of the planned new residential projects, the Asian Holding Real Estate Company has invested in the 4.7ha Asian Lake View project in Đồng Xoài City.

It includes a residential area, shophouses and an area for entertainment.

Another is the 92.7ha Cát Tường Phú Hưng Complex Urban Area in Đồng Xoài City at a cost of $70 million.

To create the best possible investment climate, Bình Phước has been pushing ahead with administrative reforms, and the time needed to license a project is being cut down to a single day, while the online handling of administrative procedures will make assistance to businesses swift.

It will focus on attracting investments in technology, organic agriculture and processing of agricultural products like cashew, pepper and fruits.

— VNS LINK

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Henig: Việt Nam, Netherlands eye further cooperation in sustainable development

February, 03/2023 - 06:23

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in the economies of Việt Nam and the Netherlands and is deeply imprinted in the culture and people of the two countries, the diplomat told Đầu tư (Vietnam Investment Review).

HÀ NỘI Due to their similar geographical features and advantages, the Việt Nam and the Netherlands have increased their sustainable development partnership in agriculture, water management, and climate change adaptation, said Ambassador of the Netherlands to Việt Nam Kees van Baar.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in the economies of Việt Nam and the Netherlands and is deeply imprinted in the culture and people of the two countries, the diplomat told Đầu tư (Vietnam Investment Review).

Close co-operation between the two sides has resulted in new visions and the blooming of business cooperation, with a growing number of the Netherlands' companies doing business and investing in Việt Nam.

The Netherlands is the largest European investor in Việt Nam. With their investments and innovative and sustainable operations, the country's businesses actively contribute to Việt Nam’s progress, he said.

He added that but even more significant, Vietnamese companies setting up businesses in the Netherlands as well.

Regarding the two countries' co-operation in green trade, Kees van Baar said that Việt Nam and the Netherlands are delta countries and are vulnerable to rising sea levels resulting from climate change.

The countries also aim to become climate neutral in 2050 by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Currently, the EU is developing and implementing new rules and regulations to support its climate ambitions, like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.

He said that these new mechanisms will become effective in the coming years and will modernise and strengthen the rules for imports to the EU markets regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria.

For companies exporting from Việt Nam to the EU or being in the supply chain of an EU company, he added that there would be strong incentives to invest in ESG reporting to enjoy low tariffs and easy access to EU markets.

Therefore, the Netherlands invests in ESG capacity building for Vietnamese companies. In the framework of the GEFE 2022 event in HCM City, the embassy offered workshops. It will continue to do so in the context of the ‘Ready to Export’ programme, which is being implemented by the Dutch Business Association in Việt Nam and Vietrade.

Regarding the two countries’ hi-tech co-operation, the ambassador said that the Netherlands is a small country in terms of area, but it is the 15th largest economy in the world.

The Netherlands has a rich history of entrepreneurial innovation with world-famous inventions, ranging from microscopes and telescopes to CDs and DVDs, Bluetooth and Wi-Fi.

During his visit to the Netherlands last December, Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính visited the world-leading production and knowledge economy of the province of North Brabant and the Brainport region in and around the city of Eindhoven.

In response to PM Chính’s wish to strengthen bilateral co-operation in innovation and creativity, the Netherlands is ready to share with Việt Nam the knowledge and experience of our transition from a traditional agricultural and manufacturing industry into a world-leading high-tech hotspot, the ambassador said.

He added that they plan to organise in 2023 a mission of the Netherlands' businesses, knowledge institutes, and other stakeholders from the innovation ecosystem to Việt Nam to exchange ideas and discuss co-operation possibilities.

VNS LINK

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Henig: Garment, footwear exports aim to reach US$80 billion by 2025

07:00 | 02/02/2023

Under the development strategy approved by the Government, for the long term, the garment, textile, leather and footwear sectors are still key export industries of the economy.

Việt Nam's textile, garment and footwear sectors aim to achieve a total export value of US$77-80 billion in 2025 and $106-108 billion in 2030, according to the strategy for the development of Việt Nam's textile and footwear industry.
Under the development strategy approved by the Government, for the long term, the garment, textile, leather and footwear sectors are still key export industries of the economy.
Of which, the textile, garment, leather and footwear sectors continue to promote investment in the production of materials and auxiliary materials, as well as supporting industries.

They will encourage the production of fabrics from domestically produced yarn to reduce imports, and form a complete supply and value chain in the region.

For the leather and footwear industry, Nguyễn Đức Thuấn, chairman of Lefaso, said domestic enterprises needed to actively adapt to the requirements of the market and brands on sustainable development standards for products. They must reduce emissions in the production process, and increase the use of solar energy and highly sustainable products.

Also, according to the strategy, Việt Nam's textile and garment industry expects export turnover to reach $50-52 billion in 2025 and $68-70 billion in 2030.

The strategy also states that developing the fashion industry is considered a new direction. Accordingly, this sector will focus on developing designers, and raw material supply, production and distribution systems to form supply chains and create sustainable foundations for the development of Việt Nam's fashion industry as well as fashion centres in Hà Nội and HCM City.

The strategy encourages enterprises to gradually switch their production methods to FOB (free on board) and ODM (original design manufacturer) to add value to products, and build a private brand to improve the competitiveness of the businesses and products.

Materials are the most difficult factor in the textile and garment industry. Therefore, to promote the development of the textile and garment supporting industry, the textile and garment industry strives to have a localisation rate at 51-55 per cent in 2021 - 2025 and 56-60 per cent in 2026-2030.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to attract investment in the development of supporting industries and the production of raw materials and accessories for the textile and garment industry based on advantages in the free trade agreements Việt Nam has joined.

The projects to develop the supporting industry and the production of raw materials and accessories should be built in regions with a number of textile and garment enterprises to reduce transport charges and production cost and improve competitiveness.

The strategy also mentions the role of State management agencies in encouraging enterprises to invest in producing fiber, yarn, textile and dyeing with advanced technology and connections with domestic garment enterprises.

This approved textile and garment development strategy will help form industrial parks with wastewater treatment areas to attract textile and dyeing projects. Now, the infrastructure for textile, dyeing and fabric production is still limited.

Domestic fabric production only reaches 2 billion metres per year, meeting 25-30 per cent of the demand of the garment industry. Việt Nam's textile and garment industry currently must import 60-70 per cent of the raw materials. Việt Nam has joined many FTAs, creating conditions for textiles and garments to expand export markets with the tariff gradually reducing to zero.

According to Chairman of the Việt Nam Textile and Apparel Association Vũ Đức Giang, in the first quarter of 2023, the number of export orders decreased by 25-27 per cent due to the decrease in global purchasing power.

Therefore, businesses can produce lower-value products, and diversify markets and products to keep production and promote growth.

Chairman of Vinatex Lê Tiến Trường said that many businesses now only ran 70-80 per cent of production capacity due to a reduction in consumer demand. So, Vinatex was now focusing on raw material production more than garment production. The materials were always the first step in greening, creating a foundation for qualified materials as green requirements of the US and Europe.

Vinatex had organised the production of yarn products from recycled materials or organic materials. At the same time, the raw material production factories were equipped with solar power to meet green energy standards.

According to forecasts, the situation of Việt Nam's textile and garment industry in 2023 would be worse than in 2022. Therefore, businesses needed to follow the market's developments to have flexible solutions to ensure efficiency in production and business, as well as promote the export of goods, Trường said.

Source: VNS LINK