Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economic Updates Thursday Evening 8-22-24
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LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the 2024 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium — 8/23/2024 AT 10:00 AM EDT
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference on the economic outlook on Friday. That will follow minutes from the Fed’s July gathering released Wednesday. They indicated that most participants at the central bank’s meeting said it would “likely” be appropriate to lower the fed funds rate from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% at the September meeting — if data continues to come in as expected.
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Watch Live Here: BENZINGA
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Jackson Hole Preview: 5 Important Questions Ahead Of Jerome Powell's Fed Speech
Zinger Key Points
Investors anticipate insights on upcoming rate cuts, particularly in Powell’s Friday speech at 10 a.m. ET.
Analysts expect Powell to hint at rate cuts while emphasizing the Fed's data-driven approach to monetary policy.
Traders are anxiously awaiting the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium. This highly anticipated event could set the tone for the Fed’s future policy actions, especially as investors anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pivotal speech on Friday at 10 a.m. ET, where he is expected to provide crucial insights into the economic outlook and the central bank’s rate-cut plans.
Here are five important questions answered about this year's Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
1. What Is Jackson Hole?
The Jackson Hole Symposium is a prominent late-summer economic conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
The event attracts central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world and takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
2. Why Should Investors Focus On Jackson Hole?
Generally, the Jackson Hole Symposium holds particular importance for two key reasons: it occurs during the longest gap between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, offering potential clues on future monetary policy. It also takes place in August, when market activity is typically quieter due to summer holidays and a scarcity of other significant events.
Regarding the 2024 event, while a rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting is considered as a done deal by markets, investors are keenly focused on how quickly the Fed will proceed with additional cuts and what the economic outlook will be, with a special focus on inflation and the jobs market.
3. How Will Jackson Hole Be Covered?
Powell's speech at 10 a.m. ET Friday will be live-streamed, but the rest of the symposium's speeches will not be televised.
Although there isn't live coverage of the other sessions, major business networks typically feature a series of sideline interviews with key attendees, such as Fed officials, who could provide near-term views on monetary policy.
4. What Do Wall Street Analysts Expect From Jackson Hole This Year?
“The easiest thing for Chair Powell would be to repeat his message from July. An evolution of the July FOMC language would suggest the committee is ‘very close’ or ‘close’ to the point where easing is likely to occur,” noted Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated, “He is likely to support market expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September. But he is also likely to push back on expectations of cuts in November and December. He will repeat that the Fed’s decisions are data dependent.”
Goldman Sachs analysts “expect to hear more comments like those from Goolsbee earlier in August that the Fed’s job is not to react to a single data point.”
However, they also expect the Fed to reassure markets that it stands ready to act swiftly should the economy take a turn for the worse.
Greg Marcus, managing director, UBS Private Wealth Management, expects Jerome Powell “to hint strongly at rate cuts and try to calm the market. He'll make it clear that the Fed will be data dependent and won't commit to any one position but will continue to emphasize the importance of not forgetting that the Fed has a dual mandate.”
5. How Has the Stock Market Performed Historically During Jackson Hole?
Historically, the Jackson Hole Symposium has had a muted impact on the S&P 500's performance.
A Benzinga analysis of the past 10 events shows that the S&P 500 has generally remained flat during the symposium days (Thursday and Friday), with an average decline of 0.4% and a median return of 0%.
When extending the analysis to the entire week, the index shows a slightly better performance, with an average gain of 0.4% and a median return of 0.8%.
Over the past 10 events, the S&P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, recorded positive returns in six instances during the symposium days and in seven instances over the entire week.
Notable market reactions to the Jackson Hole events included 2022, 2019 and 2015.
In 2022, Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a 3.4% drop in the S&P 500 over two days, with the index down 4% for the week due to fears of prolonged high interest rates.
In 2019, uncertainty from Powell’s speech amid the U.S.-China trade war led to a 2.9% decline during the symposium days and a 1.4% loss for the week.
In contrast, 2015 saw the S&P 500 rise 2.43% during the symposium and 0.8% for the week, as markets were reassured by the Fed.
@ Newshounds News™
Source: BENZINGA
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Latam ecommerce giant Mercado Libre launches MELI dollar stablecoin in Brazil
Mercado Libre, the Latin American ecommerce giant, has launched the MELI dollar stablecoin in Brazil via its digital bank, Mercado Pago. The parent company is the Latin American equivalent of Amazon.com and has the highest market capitalization of any company in the region.
It’s a big deal because the digital bank has 52 million monthly active users across the entire region. While the company doesn’t break out the users by country, its financial report for Q2 2024 said the digital bank users in Brazil had grown 46% year on year.
Users can access the stablecoin via the Mercado Pago app, which also supports cryptocurrencies. The company is currently waving stablecoin transaction fees, whereas other crypto attracts fees of 1.5%. It partnered with crypto firm Ripio, which is providing market making.
Ripio is also a distributor of the Lift stablecoin, a yield bearing dollar token targeted at Argentinians. Paxos issued it out of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Meanwhile, the MELI stablecoin is issued by Meli Uruguay. Mercado Libre’s headquarters were originally in Argentina but moved to Uruguay, and its holding company is registered in Delaware.
The company has been interested in stablecoins for some time as it was a member of the Facebook-founded Diem stablecoin initiative.
In 2022 Mercado Libre launched the MercadoCoin as part of a loyalty program that started in Brazil.
@ Newshounds News™
Source: Ledger Insights
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