MilitiaMan "Thoughts on the CBI" Saturday PM 6-5-2021

KTFA:

MilitiaMan:  The CBI is to maintain stability and that is what they do. They defend their currency for many reasons and purposes.

Under the circumstances and progress we see in the monetary reform process while taking into consideration that there is a digital transformation going in Iraq, in the region and Globally down to the Human Capital Development side of things takes into consideration exchange rates and the effects both good and bad they have on the population of course, not to mention commercial and industries and others being inclusive that are affected. 

Exchange rates have a profound effect on day to day lives.

CBI knows that all to well and I think we both are too, well aware of that. My view as I have stated in respect to the deletion of the zeros project, is that this last devaluation was done for a few reasons aligned with the project.  

1) Is to stimulate the populace to bring in large notes to reduce note counts which creates value in the end.

2) It also is said to stimulate local production of local goods and services on the good side.

3) On the downside it creates inflation and that comes fast and furious, whereby, we get item #4.  

4) Instability, as we see in the news with protests to the devaluation and more building as the days go on.

With all the reforms having been progressing and converging at a pace unseen before and with the pressures that the devaluation brings there comes a time that the risk of more devaluation for the so called good side of the ledger becomes far to risky and the cost becomes a liability. One that may have far to many consequences! 

With that in mind, it is my belief the Government who will bare the brunt along with the CBI have a choice to make now as, they already of late increased auctions over the last month or so which didn’t cool the inflation.

So now will the CBi seek to defend the currency by selling more reserves, a negative, that hasn’t worked and risk the reserves?

I think not. My view, is with the massive amount of data we have been showing in articles with links to support the view, is that they are ready and are heavily pressured to go to a market economy.

That fact is in our face like no other.

 So to presume this particular time is like any other time in history is folly and not taking into account this is a digital transformation into a les cash society. Less cash has added value. Devaluation has more cash. Fairly simple concept.

Another simple concept to apply is to delete the zeros at a pre determined and calculated exchange rate that was market driven!! Interesting isn’t it. The CBI Didn’t  devalue this last move down to 1500, the market did. 

Thus, my view is I expect a strong ( like never seen before, as noted on Iraq TV.) international rate to be gamed off the devaluation with the help of the local bankers and traders who are fully aware of what is going to happen next. We have data that supports them saying so..

Let’s see what they do next! We are only as good as the data we get. Yes, we get some very good data. Imo ~ MM