MilitiaMan Thoughts: "Exciting Times Ahead!" 11-5-2022
KTFA:
MilitiaMan: The Iraqi president refuses to accept Al-Maliki as his deputy, and the Sudanese is keeping the security institutions away from the control of the militias
MilitiaMan: This is a welcome sight to behold I will bet by many an Iraqi. I am sure there could be some blow back from this but, with what we have seen in the outcome of the fresh new GOI with it's PMs cabinet seated suggests that the PM Sudani is playing the line that was drawn in the sand by Al-Sadr.
We wouldn't be in the place we are in now with out there having been agreements made.
The GOI has forward movement and an agenda likely with timelines to be complete and along side and in tandem with the CBI.
Any interference now will likely not be tolerated. We have seen significant arrests of late. That could continue on into the future. The new system will be a part of that, hence the latest intensity we see for the push against corruption.
MilitiaMan Cont…….In the mean time lets see how the GOI and the CBI play their cards. The Kurds have agreements on the table too. They have an expectation of being a part of the second half of the 2022 Budget or EFSL designed to be outside of the Elite Politicians hands, yet for investment they are a part of that.
The amounts of money for investment are in the tune of $80 - $115 Billion.. Yep, with a capital B.
The Kurds didn't take part in the first half of the operational side of things in the EFSL, so with that amount of money being sliced and deals to possibly skirt constitutional rulings, is very interesting.
The UN, USA, etc, have been in those talks. The talk of no new contracts and present law suits being put to the side with respect to the Kurds makes me feel deals have been on the table for some time and are just now getting to the finer points if you will. The HCL is one of those finer points (Hydro carbon Law)
There needs to be clarity and some of the past may muddy the waters, hence no need for change with new VPs. The PM knows the score. I suspect the leader of the CF is now fully aware that times have changed..
Lets see what the days bring. We know there is ample talk of the budget being done in days. To that I am of the view they are talking about the EFSL (Emergency Food Security Law) prior to the 2023 being adjusted and completed.
The 2022 budget / EFSL wil have to play out the 2nd half prior top the 2023. We know they audited the 2003 - 2021. This time is different than in the prior few years. The 2019 FML saw to that.
The EFSL is different ball game.. IMO.. This all bodes very well for all.. imo ~ MM
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Planning announces the start of preparing the 2023 budget
The Ministry of Planning announced today, Thursday, that it will start preparing the 2023 budget, while it clarified about resolving its ceilings, and confirmed that it will work to reconcile the government's priorities and its ministerial program when writing it.
Deputy Minister of Planning Maher Hammad said, "The Ministry of Planning informed the Ministry of Finance that it will start preparing the budget for the next year," noting that "the 2022 budget that was prepared previously will be changed and amendments will be made to it for many considerations, including changing the situation and the government," noting that "we will work to make a consensus." With the government's priorities, program and ministerial curriculum in budget writing.
He added, "We are currently working in detail, as we communicate with the Ministry of Finance on the details that pertain to the common sides, whether as investment budget items or as loans," noting that "the budget ceilings have not been determined so far."
He continued, "The ceilings were set during the ministry's meeting with the Ministry of Oil, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, which shows the amount of production and export of oil and the expected price per barrel, and is reflected on the budget divisions and its needs," noting that "the Ministry of Finance needs greater efforts because it provides all operational amounts." In addition to the issue of appointments, contracts and the lack of salaries, in addition to many details such as electricity and gas provision for energy."
He stated, "This topic takes time in order to organize and arrange and take into account the heads of the main points or directions of the government," explaining that "the ideas of the Prime Minister are reflected in the government program and thus are reflected on us in the procedures."LINK
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MilitiaMan: So the Ministry of Planning is preparing the 2023 budget and they note there is to be a resolution to budget ceilings and they confirm they're to reconcile government priorities.
Well the government needs to have reconciliation within their budgets from 2003 to present that are a part of those priorities. That would be from 2003 - 2021 and through the 2022 budget too!! They are likely to have 2022 specifically done by now or we wouldn't be this close to having the 2023 budget ready to be completed.
The main players tell us the 2022 budget was previously prepared and that it will be changed with amendments.
They told us that during the EFSL process to the best of my recollection to on the table to do. Sadr would not have resigned with out that bit with the EFSL being sorted in the agreements.
They say there will be many considerations, including changing the "situation and the government". Those two items are clearly CBI and GOI related... The "situational" aspect? Is imo likely to do with economic and monetary reforms, and the latter, it being the implementation of government policy, which is to set the former in motion (MR).
They need to have the data on dollar/dinar amounts to be reflected in the spreadsheets pricing grids.
The ceilings set or yet to be set is hard to decipher, as they do say both above. Set and not set? lol I'll go with they were set, as they invoke the MOO,(Minister of Oil?) the CBI and the MOF. They all would know if it is done by now.
They would know the monetary statistics necessary to reflect the amounts of production, price per barrel of oil and it's divisions and it needs, etc. The MOF (Minister of Finance) has to be accurate in the details.
They will adjust the figures in the budget to reflect exchange rate changes, fairly simple. If that is the case, many people will need to know the calculations to input from the 2022 reconciled budget to be placed into the data set for the 2023..
The expectation is that according to data will not be long from now.. Imo... I really like the data they are putting out to support this view.. A lot!!! ~ MM
Samson: A completely new draft.. What is the relationship of the Russian-Ukrainian war to Iraq's budget for 2023?
4th November, 2022
The economic expert, Salam Sumaisem, confirmed today, Friday, that the new government will prepare a new draft of the 2023 budget bill and will not depend on the previous government’s draft because of different visions, while noting that the consequences of the Ukrainian-Russian war will affect the price of a barrel of oil that will be estimated in the budget.
Sumaisem told (Baghdad Today) that "the new government will prepare itself the draft budget law, as the government program needs a budget that differs from the draft prepared by the previous government," explaining that "the Sudanese have goals that he will work to implement through some exchange gates in the budget, especially related to investment funds and social expenditures related to poverty and unemployment.
She explained, "The dates for sending the draft budget law by the government to Parliament are related to constitutional issues, especially since the 2023 budget is supposed to be ready before starting in 2023," while Salam believes that "the price of oil in the budget will be linked to many factors, the most important of which are the conditions of the Ukrainian-Russian war." Especially as we approach the winter season.
She pointed out that "Iraq is used to setting the barrel's price significantly lower than its original price, and the financial surplus will be rounded for the next year, but we always do not know where these surplus funds go because there are no final accounts that reveal their fate."
She concluded by saying that "the 2023 budget is supposed to be different, especially in the development aspect, and not be different in the aspects of current spending, that is, the increase in expenditures and salaries only. The financial abundance should be a reason to increase development funds, until we notice an improvement in the file of food, health and social security reduce poverty and unemployment.
In previous statements, Finance Minister Taif Sami confirmed that "one of the most important priorities of the new government and the ministry is to present and approve the draft general federal budget for the year 2023." The Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, directed that the draft financial budget law for the next year 2023 be sent as soon as possible. LINK
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MilitiaMan: As we talked about earlier. There are two sides of the 2022 budget. There is the operational side (social expenditures) and the investment side. They tell us the have to have the 2023 budget done before implementation. They go on to say that the budget is linked to many thing including not only oil, but the borders, LNG, minerals, tourism, etc. etc. They say there are no final accounts? I feel that is likely to be a past circumstance and not present any longer. We know the past has been audited and or being finalized noted by the 2022 budget being finalized. imo ~ MM
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Samson: Parliamentary Finance reveals the date for the arrival of next year’s budget
4th November, 2022
Today, Friday, the Parliamentary Finance Committee announced the date of the arrival of the financial budget for the next year, noting that its delay was due to the submission of requests related to transferring it from items to a program budget.
Committee member Jamal Cougar told (Baghdad Today) that "the financial budget will reach Parliament at the end of this month," noting that "Minister of Finance Taif Sami is the one who prepared the budget while managing this file, and accordingly there will be no delay in completing it quickly and sending it from the government to Parliament."
Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani called for the completion of the budget and sending it to the Council of Ministers to vote on it and send it to Parliament. LINK
MilitiaMan: So it looks as though the may have done the transferring of items to a program budget. They need to have the calculations from the reconciled 2022 budget to the next 2023 budget. If that is the case.. Exciting times are ahead.. Lets see what the CBI has to say too... ~ MM