MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Saturday Night 7-25-2020
KTFA:
AnotherMailman: With all of the salaries to be paid before the beginning of Eid (July 31st), we don't have long to wait to find out if they will be paid at a program rate or a new rate. I always thought Eid was a time of gifts to the citizens. Maybe the gifts will be their regular pay with the same purchasing power or increased purchasing power with the HCL included for the citizens! That would be nice! IMO
Ryan1216: That's a great way of looking at it. We'll find out shortly...... Hopefully the salaries will be paid with a new rate.
OlLar: “The Iraqi government may suspend official hours this week with a comprehensive ban” Is it me or does this seem very convenient and a little coincidental.
Samson: Ministerial Roundtable discussions express support for Iraqi government economic reforms
Reforms White Paper
At the start of the discussions, Dr. Ali Allawi outlined the nature and scale of the financial and economic crisis in Iraq.
Dr. Allawi told participants that this Iraqi government is revisiting all past decisions that have encumbered Iraq’s economy, allowed it to be wholly dependent on oil, and stifled the ingenuity and creativity of Iraqis.
Dr. Allawi said that the new Iraqi government is committed to submitting a wide-ranging White Paper to Parliament in September 2020 which will set out a roadmap to reorient the Iraqi economy and grow the private sector so that it can play its natural and leading role in the economy. LINK
GodLover: This is another article that clearly supports what I have been stating for a couple of months imo. I think it was in May when they first started talking of the reform paper (white paper) imo. Since then....per articles they had stated numerous times that PM K has 60-90 to submit the white paper, AFTER the approval of the borrowing law which was approved on June 24th per articles imo. 90 days would end roughly Sept 24th.....60 days is roughly end of August......imo. And again, although salaries have yet to be completely paid, this is how Iraq functions....none the less salaries are secured by the borrowing law for 3 months...per articles imo. Delta had stated iho that Sept. looks good. However, per articles salaries are secured for Sept...imo. I will stick my my original theory of them aligning this with the US fiscal year 2021 on Oct 1st imo.
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MilitiaMan: I see that this is suggesting a wide ranging White Paper. There is nothing specific in that. The borrowing law was first reported ti be rejected on 06/14/2020. But, pay attention to the reasons why they need the White Papers.
The world bank has a lot to say about what Iraq was in need of doing around or in early May 04, 2020. Both items are in the links below. Depending on who suggests what the accurate time frame for the clock to have been started for Iraq to have reforms underway "White Papers are in 60 - 90 days", imo, the World Bank has more weight in the matter and that was guidance in early May, not so much as the Borrowing Law being rejected in mid June.
The world bank signed an understanding with the CBI to manage Iraq's assets. Managing is to give guidance on critical matters and important ones too. Al-Nasseri wrote a paper to the new PM when he first took office and provided a copy of his paper with emphasis that past administrations were silent on the matters.
White Papers are known to be about what needs to be done and when things are done, they are reported into the White Papers and then checked off for future additions to the paper to be added from what has been completed. Completions beget new beginnings. As when steps are accomplished more steps are added, an so on.
Take note in the above. It speaks of WIDE RANGING WHITE PAPERS... That means they are a work in progress, imo. They are not the end all, as it seems to some to suggest.
They need to establish the rate of the IQD for to promulgate it to the world.
The World Bank states that Iraq will have issues with out getting the reforms done. They say borrowing is going to be difficult for Iraq to fund expenditures. Then today we see proof of that and with a qualification that they can get the monies through FINANCIAL REFORMS.. This is not theory. This is what they can do and it is coming from the Finance Committee.
The reforms will allow the money to flow, imo, that money will require an international rate.
Financial Reforms are not at a program rate for pete sake.
They have told us time and time again where they can get money. That is from the Reforms.
Reforms get Iraq into the secondary markets to do just that, hence they say it. They will use financial reforms to do so. Imo.
The GCC in post #100 are even discussing it today. (see below for the reason why they won't devalue. Devalue is to print more money. Same goes for Iraq. They are not going to print more money to devalue to pay salaries. It makes no sense and they have beat that drum plenty!!)
This is a bigger picture than just Iraq.. imo So the theory of being out into September is not being supported yet imo one bit.. If you have links to support the view they will extend reforms out to September with fresh information, then please bring it in. Love to see it.
In the mean time, we are imo watching the live progress on many fronts, not just Iraqs.. It supports they have financial reforms to pay salaries imo.. Peace. . ~ MM
" Parliamentary Finance Committee, Dill, asked the Ministry of Finance to keep its promises to pay salaries during the current month and the next three by making funds available through some financial reforms, increasing oil prices and internal borrowing, indicating that the government's borrowing procedures are still slow.
MilitiaMan: Take note too, that International investors at the 2018 KW conference are still waiting on the IQD to spring forth into action. Just as the courting of fresh investors we see on the Iraq Gov. web site and at length over the last few days.
Economic reforms are all over that site and in the World Bank links below I provide. Investments are all over in the news and energy businesses are all over the news as well. So, might want to rethink where we are.. imo As a more gradual approach for the GCC is in order per Fitch.
As in let the IQD GCC rise with the tide on the new international rate of Iraq. The GCC has Alak coming to the AMF when his workd is done.. imo. All good.. ~ MM
LINK
The agency said, "The devaluation will only return with a few competitive advantages over the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council due to the nature of their economies not diversified resources."
Social concerns are also likely to cause governments to refrain from devaluing currencies, as they may lead to higher costs of living.
"A potentially violent social response is a risk to both currency devaluation and fiscal rationalization, but fiscal policy may better be accommodated by a more gradual control," Fitch said.
The Arabs link
Don961: An economist warns of a "scenario" that will limit the Iraqi economy
Economie 07/25 2020 13:22 377 Editor: am
Baghdad today - Diyala
The economic expert, Rasim al-Akidi, warned today, Saturday, of a scenario that is being adopted by neighboring countries to obtain the dollar from Iraq, while he indicated that this scenario contributes to restricting the Iraqi economy to foreign policies.
Al-Aqidi said in an interview with (Baghdad Today), that "most neighboring countries adopt a similar scenario for several years, which is the payment of Iraqi merchants to pay money to buy their goods in dinars."
The economist pointed out that "these countries currently possess at least 35% of the Iraqi monetary block, and this is extremely dangerous."
He added, "Countries are investing their Iraqi monetary block in buying dollars through auctions from the central bank, through private banks."
He pointed out that "this scenario is not being talked about, and there are many parties that turn a blind eye to him despite his danger in transferring hard currencies abroad," explaining that "the Iraqi economy will be restricted to foreign policies." LINK
MilitiaMan: Sounds to me like they are serious about there being transferring of hard currency abroad. The Iraqi economy will be restricted to foreign policies. That last part, is what the IMF has told us they were to do, as in stopping the auctions.. Another key indicator that there are things afoot to support a change to the IQD is coming. They talked about the change in early June, and now again the late July, as they want the corruption gone. It also reflects that it wasn;t enough to date.. They suggest now the pressure is coming from foriegn policy makes it necessary to do so and now.. We shall see.. imo ~ MM
In the documents, the Central Bank proposes to transfer the currency auction to the Ministry of Finance
4/6/2020 13:26:37
The Central Bank of Iraq renewed its proposal that the Finance Ministry take over the sale of the dollar to the market directly for exchange in Iraqi dinars to cover budget expenditures without the central bank’s mediation.
The Central Bank attributed its proposal in its letter to the three presidencies, {Euphrates News Agency} obtained a copy of it until it “devotes itself to carrying out its tasks, which are numerous and important for financial stability and economic stimulus, and in order to get the bank out of the confusion that this issue causes.”
It is said that suspicions of corruption are continuously raised on the auction sale of the currency of the Central Bank of Iraq, most recently its support for Arhab.
LINK
After Coming Under Heavy Criticism ... The Central Bank Stops The Currency Auction
FA # 169
7. Adopting verification and control mechanisms on the currency auction to ensure the maintenance of hard currency from fraudulent fraud on the one hand and the collection of taxes efficiently and accurately to contribute to supporting the revenues of the general budget