MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Friday PM 3-13-2020
KTFA:
DELTA/ Samson: Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate – determinants and alternatives
MilitiaMan: This is effectively the opposite of the plan. The why and why not to devalue. Imo!~
The Samson / Delta post in my view is telling us the CBI has explained they are not going to devalue for many reasons. The thing I like is that they use the reasons that support the opposite to occur.
They haven't come this far with the reforms to devalue. They are not of the mind at this juncture to hurt the citizens. That imo would be suicide.
They clearly see that revenues are in a pinch with oil down. Therefore, imo with out them saying as much they are saying with out saying they are going to raise the value.
The negative side of the equation, is devaluation, the positive side is revaluation, imo.. They have the money printed and ready to go, they have the tools in place to facilitate the transition.. imo.. ~ MM
Don961: agreed .. imo ...Alak is saying cover that deficit by expanding their economic horizons ... get rid of the corruption and stealing at the borders ...and elsewhere ... stop importing cheap goods and support local industry and agriculture ... stop wasting natural gas and other natural resources ... reign in salaries ... collect those taxes ... utilize real estate ...etc .. lowering the dinar value will not help all that
MilitiaMan: Thank you and I am pleased to see there are many of us that feel the same way! The CBI is supporting the view, too. They just say what they need to say about MRs, they just do it with out directly saying it.. A sort of "GREENSPAN - EASE" if you will. They have an inferred obligation to educate the citizens, yet, the delivery of that education is not the issue.. It is they have delivered it or are in the process of doing so.. imo ! ~ MM
Coco: Pre-Market Trading: DOW down 615 to 20,470. Friday is going to be ugly in the markets.
Harley1: you may be right....Also remember, Kim Clement prophesied not only 20,000 (I never thought of 20,000 on the way back down) but also when things appear to be at their worst is when it would happen coinciding with a financial breakthrough in the middle east which I guess would be around the corner....so it's looking like all things are coming together right about now. Travel industry (airlines, hotels, cruise, etc), entertainment industry, economies around the world, all on the brink of collapse right now in the middle of and due to a worldwide pandemic. May not be so far off after all.
ChrisC: This is looking almost exactly like I thought it would, minus the empty toilet paper aisle. I think we are looking at 15K unless something really impressive happens. This will be great in the end if everybody can just relax and see the good side. Trump tried to do this the easy way but they didn't want to play so I am imagining him as Nature Boy Rick Flair slamming some head into the turnbuckle and putting someone in a sleeper hold. Maybe as one of the Freebirds. They are going to RV soon and when the market hits 15,000 then everyone can get ready to get way richer than they were as long as Trump resolves the bank situation first. Who knows, if they don't head off the stampede it may go even lower. When cattle get scared, it is really hard to calm them down.
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Don961: Sources: The President of the Republic sets a "final" deadline for submitting a candidate for prime minister
Policy , 03/12/2020 17:22 Baghdad - Iraq today:
Well-informed Iraqi political sources said on Thursday that President Barham Salih had given the Shiite blocs until next Monday to agree on a new candidate for prime minister.
And quoted an "informed" political source that "Iraqi President Barham Saleh gave the Shiite political blocs until next Monday, to agree on the nomination of a new prime minister for Iraq so that he could assign him."
He added that, "Saleh sent during the past two days to the Shiite leaders concerned with the nomination of a new prime minister, a message urging them the importance of reaching a candidate no later than next Monday, which is the end of the constitutional deadline of two weeks to assign a new candidate."
The source quoted Saleh as affirming his "clear" assertion in his letter that "the end of the constitutional deadline means a constitutional violation that cannot be justified under any pretext, in addition to that article 76 of the constitution gives the president of the republic the nomination of whom he deems appropriate, regardless of the largest number of parliamentary bloc."
The source pointed out that “the president of the republic, to whom the constitution offers this option, may resort to it because he takes into account two basic issues. The first is that the position is from the share of the Shiite component, and therefore he does not want to be in any way a party to this conflict, and the second is that he takes into account the situation The complex composition of the Iraqi parliament that represents the different Iraqi ethnic, religious and sectarian components.
He continued, saying, "Therefore, any candidate cannot gain confidence from within Parliament unless it is agreed upon within the Parliament itself, at a time when these blocs are witnessing a sharp division due to the repercussions of the political situation."
He pointed out that “in light of the failure of the Shiite leaders and leaders to resolve its final position on this issue,” among the options presented in the event that the nomination of a new personality for the post was not reached, after the apology of the former commissioner, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, to reassign the resigned Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, In light of the semi-American-Iranian consensus. ” LINK
MilitiaMan: Sorry, these guys and gals seem to think the world is stupid, ignorant and blind. There is imo no reason other than blatant corruption that the Citizens and nation as a whole has not been given the opportunity to play on a level playing field..
They are getting hosed everyday the RI doesn't get implemented.. How much are they going to take. Demonstrations are one thing? Yet, they know there is another level to be had. Will the citizens decide to force their rights?
Sadly, they seem to not want to, to the extent that gets Purchase Power.. The bull has a ring in it's nose, it just needs to be pulled hard enough.. Timing is always at play!! imo.. Good luck to you Iraq.
Sadly, after all this time we still have to pray for you. A hand up has been given, imo.. The infidels have a virus? The neighbors of Iraq are the isolated ones globally, by and on their own.. Go figure., We shall see if this even has any legs... imo ~ MM
Samson: The Iraqi budget is based on the price of a barrel at 56 dollars and the current rates do not exceed 25 .. What are the solutions?
12th March, 2020
Former Iraqi Oil Minister and oil expert, Issam Chalabi, suggested that Iraq would lose tens of billions of dollars due to low oil prices due to the Russian-Saudi dispute and the lack of agreement of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" and Russia to cut production.
Chalabi said in an interview with local media and followed him "obelisk" that Iraq had set the price of a barrel of oil at 56 dollars per barrel for the current year 2020, but Iraqi oil will be within the levels of these days up to no more than 25 dollars per barrel, which means that we are facing a decline A large oil revenue could reach tens of billions
Russia's breach of its agreement with OPEC to cut oil production prompted a Saudi move and flooded the market, causing a sharp drop in prices and recording the largest daily decline in nearly three decades
The meeting of the oil-exporting countries "OPEC" ended last week without reaching an agreement on the amount of production cut proposed by Saudi Arabia, which was up to one and a half million barrels per day of the organization's production, so that the spread of the virus does not undermine what was reached in 2017 To maintain stable prices in a market where there is a surplus in production, Russia refused
Chalabi said that "the dispute prompted Saudi Arabia to take two main steps, the first of which is to increase rates that raise its current production by more than 9 million barrels per day to reach more than 10 million barrels and may reach 12 million barrels per day
He added that the second step taken by Saudi Arabia is to offer its oil in Asian markets at prices 6 to 8 dollars lower than the prices prevailing at the time
He pointed out that these steps led to a decline in prices in Asian markets up to $ 31 a barrel for North Sea oil "Brent" and up to $ 27 for US oil, which led to a significant drop in oil revenues for member states, especially for Iraq, which has no room to compensate for these. The lost amounts
He explained if we remember that the average price of oil calculated in the budget of Iraq for the previous year, which extended its impact to the budget for the current year 2020, is $ 56 per barrel, then Iraqi oil will be within the rates of these days, with limits not exceeding $ 25 per barrel, which means a significant reduction in revenue Oil may reach tens of billions
Chalabi warned that Iraq’s loss of tens of billions of dollars due to the loss of a large amount of oil revenues will greatly affect the provision of services, medicines and food, at a time when the country needs all the available funds to face the spread of the new Corona virus
Chalabi said that the effect will be significant on the operational budget, especially since there is not already an investment budget in Iraq, especially perhaps to provide salaries for the 7 million employees who receive monthly cash from the Iraqi government unless the state takes measures that are borrowing internally or externally. That this solution also needs time to implement it
Chalabi described the situation as "catastrophic" for Iraq, especially as it is going through critical political conditions as a result of the political blocs calling for positions and not forming a government that meets the demands of the people, noting that the only solution is to radically change the political process in Iraq and seriously consider the Iraqi economy and change the method of state administration