KTFA Members "News and Views" Saurday 1-9-2021
KTFA:
DeepWoodz: Imo... So they are achieving an equal balance between the local markets prices on dollars and the CBI rate. Is that a SWEET SPOT? A good sign for sure! Somebody is running out of dollars and it ain’t the CBI.
Samson: Today, Saturday, the exchange rates of the dollar are resuming in the local markets
9th January, 2021
The exchange rates of the dollar recorded a rise in the main stock exchange and local markets for this Saturday.
A reporter / Mawazine News reported that "the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar recorded an increase in the Kifah Stock Exchange in the capital, Baghdad, as the selling price reached 144,500 dinars for each $ 100 bill, while the purchase price reached 143,500 dinars, for each $ 100 bill."
He added, "The exchange rates in the local markets also witnessed a rise, as the selling price of the dollar reached 144,000 thousand dinars for every 100 dollar bill." And that "the price of buying the dollar in the local market recorded 142,000 thousand dinars, for each $ 100 bill." LINK
Clare: THANKS DON! I BET THE CBI KNOWS WHAT REALLY IS GOING TO HAPPEN! IMO
Don961: Deleting 3 zeros or printing the 100 thousand dinars denomination .. Experts determine the best to face the change of the exchange rate
Baghdad Today - Special
A few days ago, two proposals have been put forward to reduce the effects of the devaluation of the dinar against the dollar, which was determined by a decision of the Ministry of Finance to fix the exchange rate at 1470 dinars against the dollar after it stabilized for more than 15 years, up to 1200 dinars, which caused bad effects on citizens, raising the prices of basic materials and reducing the value of salaries.
Parliament finances clarify its position
A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, MP Abd al-Hadi al-Saadawi, revealed, on Saturday, his committee’s opinion about deleting 3 zeros from the Iraqi currency, according to the proposals presented.
Al-Saadawi said in an interview with (Baghdad Today), that “the monetary policy in Iraq is one of the exclusive powers of the Central Bank and the financial policy is subject to the authority of the Ministry of Finance and the government, which is concerned with it, and it is not from the powers of the House of Representatives and the Finance Committee, meaning that changing the exchange rate or removing zeros from the currency is not relevant. Absolutely out of the House of Representatives.
Al-Saadawi added, “We do not see any tendency at the present time to delete zeros from the Iraqi currency by the central bank,” pointing out that “even the exchange rate of the dollar is subject to the powers of the central bank and it was recently raised after a decision inside the bank and if the government has another opinion about the exchange rate, then this matter Up to her ”
Expert: There are pros and cons
In turn, economist Safwan Qusay says in an interview with (Baghdad Today), "There is no urgent need to issue a new paper currency with a denomination of 100,000 Iraqi dinars or more, and the proposal to delete the zeros requires a bank effort and withdraw the circulating currency"
On the other hand, he added, "the level of circulation of the Iraqi dinar is very easy, therefore printing a large currency in denominations of 100 thousand Iraqi dinars or more will facilitate the process of large financial exchange," indicating that "the responsibility and task of issuing these categories of currencies rests with the Central Bank"
He continued, "The process of issuing money needs financial cover in hard currency or gold, in addition to the market’s need for time to absorb the level of devaluation of the local dinar that the government has recently undertaken
Qusay pointed out that "the step of deleting zeros from the currency raises the level of confidence in the dinar and reduces the burden of transferring cash as well as calculations, but conducting it now may confuse the market because it needs to withdraw the dinar from traders and inject a new currency."
Turn
Earlier, the former budget director at the Ministry of Finance, Hazem Hadi, confirmed that the devaluation of the local currency in the country caused a shock in the market, while the shock that occurred was necessary to finance the budget deficit instead of endangering state sovereignty, as he described it
Hazem Hadi said, in a televised interview with (Baghdad Today), that the advantages of the financial budget for the next year are "saving money and avoiding borrowing, because the size of the debt to Iraq has become very large and reached 160 trillion dinars, including internal and external loans."
Hadi added, "The internal debt decreased automatically with the rise in the value of the dollar against the dinar," indicating that "the shock that occurred in the market was inevitable, because covering the financial deficit by borrowing includes major disadvantages, including the loss of state sovereignty."
He pointed out that "the failure of the economic policy in the country in the past years has made Iraq a market for imported goods, and the Iraqi market has been flooded with these commodities, and also led to a decrease in revenues due to the decline in the price and production of oil, and all these factors caused a major financial crisis for the Iraqi economy."
Since the collapse of oil prices earlier this year, Iraq is facing an unprecedented liquidity crisis, the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi has had to borrow from the reserves of the Central Bank to pay nearly $ 5 billion a month, representing public sector salaries and pensions
The Iraqi local markets in Baghdad and other provinces have been turbulent since last week, after the decision to devalue the currency to compensate for the deficit in the 2021 budget
The decision sparked a wave of anger in the Iraqi street, but Al-Kazemi defended his government's move and said that he had two options: “Either the collapse of the regime and enter into overwhelming chaos, or we enter into a Caesarean section for reform
Al-Kazemi cited during a speech at the Iraqi Cabinet session held last Saturday, in several countries, including South Korea and Singapore, when they had previously taken "difficult decisions" in order to reform the economy LINK
Samson: Deputy reveals preparations for new demonstrations against the government
9th January, 2021
A deputy in Parliament, Basem Khashan, revealed, on Saturday, preparations for new demonstrations against the government.
Khashan said, "The demonstrations, which are being prepared, will start in Baghdad, and demands will be raised, including reforming the judiciary." He indicated, "It may extend to other governorates."
Concerning the arrests and threats to activists in the demonstrations, Khashan said that "the parties threatening the demonstrators are known, including currents close to the authority." LINK
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Samson: Absence of justice and reform .. Cougar reveals the most prominent observations on the 2021 budget
01/09/2021 13:25:53
A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, revealed, on Saturday, the most prominent notes on the 2021 budget.
In an interview with the Euphrates News Agency, Cougar said that there are several observations on the 2021 budget bill, the most prominent of which is the lack of fairness in the distribution between the provinces, and the lack of a reform imprint with regard to the ministries and the distribution of resources to them. He added that "reforms are absent in the budget except for the deductions and these." They are not called reforms, and what is in place in terms of reforms in this budget are taxes and deductions. ”
He stated that “there are no clauses in the budget for fighting corruption and no clauses about smuggled money and alien money and dealing with these points, ”stressing that“ even the reforms in it do not include timings, as an example of that. Automating border crossings and multiple salaries, no timing has been set. He explained that "among the important notes are the exaggerated numbers in the budget," stressing that "It is unreasonable in 2020 that an actual 72 trillion will be spent, and the new budget comes in at 164 trillion, which means twice the budget of the previous year + 20 trillion.
It is noteworthy that the House of Representatives will hold its session today, Saturday, to discuss the draft federal budget law for the current year 2021. LINK
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Don961: The economic theory remains that the exchange market is an information market that efficiently controls decisions on the supply and demand sides and the formation of prices and their ranges. It is a market highly affected by the quality and adequacy of the information available.
After the recent price shock in the exchange rate shock caused by monetary policy on December 19, 2020, by making a sudden reduction in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar by about 22% at once, and the dollar was offered from the window of the Central Bank of Iraq to buy and sell foreign currency at a new strict exchange rate and its rise in favor of the dollar from 1182
One dinar to 1450 dinars per dollar is a price phenomenon that still has profound effects on commercial exchanges and the movement of cash transactions in financing trade in general and the secondary or parallel exchange market in particular.
As this price shock led to the contraction of the parallel market and the change of its characteristics, behavior and dealings, especially with the official central market as well as the interactions in it.
To continue reading, click on the following link link
Don961: What is the fate of Iraqi money smuggled abroad?
- 5 Hours Elapsed
Iraqi money smuggled abroad has always been the focus of Iraqi attention, but it has increased in the recent period with the exacerbation of the financial problem that the country is going through, until it has generally become the focus of attention and a major demand for Iraqis, with the large size of these funds and the possibility of providing radical solutions to the great financial impasse. in Iraq.
High defendants and a political system that provides protection
Observers describe the state of corruption that the country has been experiencing for several years as being carried out by political agreement to share the country's capabilities through the ruling political class, while observers exclude that the current government or any other government will settle those files and recover smuggled money or arrest the main ones involved in them.
Perhaps the first of these operations was through the Minister of Defense in the first government of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, Hazem Al-Shaalan, who fled the country with about one billion dollars, and Iraqi courts have sentenced him to seven years in prison, but he is still outside Iraq as well as not recovering that money.
In addition to Al-Shaalan, there are many ministers, heads of bodies and officials who are accused or those who have been judged in corruption cases in billions of dollars, most notably the former Minister of Electricity, Ayham al-Samarrai, who escaped from prison outside the country.
And officials in the fight against corruption reveal that an official request from Iraq was submitted to the United States earlier to recover Al-Samarrai based on the legal and judicial cooperation agreement between Baghdad and Washington, but the American side did not respond to these calls because Al-Samurai holds American citizenship.
The other prominent file is the file of the Minister of Trade in the government of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and a member of the Dawa Party, Abdul Falah al-Sudani, who was accused of stealing $ 4 billion, and Iraqi courts sentenced him to 21 years imprisonment after his escape abroad.
Al-Sudani was handed over to the Iraqi authorities by Interpol in January 2018, but Iraqi courts released him in November of the same year, as the court's decision stipulated that he was released so that the complainants waived and decided to include him with a general amnesty.
This incident was followed by many other incidents and corruption deals that are still going on until recently, without resolving or taking legal measures against high-profile figures accused of them, and in many cases being satisfied with announcing that measures have been taken against moderate cadres in the Iraqi state.
The deep state and the victims of opening those files
What reinforces the belief in the large scale of corruption in Iraq is the amount of money that has been smuggled abroad as a result of systematic corruption operations that have been administered over the past years, as some estimates from former officials in Iraqi anti-corruption institutions reach that the amount of smuggled money amounts to 600 billion dollars, while Deputies in the Parliamentary Finance Committee and economists estimated the amount of money smuggled abroad at about $ 350 billion.
Member of the Finance Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, Representative Jamal Cougar, said, "Official figures for the amount of smuggled funds are not available, but estimates range from $ 250 billion to $ 350 billion, as mentioned by former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi in one of the discussions of the three presidencies."
He adds, "So far, Iraq does not have a mechanism in the context of retrieving that money, and we have not seen a real will to open this file," ruling out that Iraq will witness real movement in this context in the near future.
Cougar points out that what prevents the move to resolve this file is the fact that "the political actors who fled that money are still in power and represent the deep state."
He points out that "whoever opens this file will be a victim, as happened with the prominent politician Ahmed Chalabi and other integrity judges and others."
He continues, "This file is still dead because it is a political file par excellence and needs strong will and real mechanisms from the Iraqi government," noting that the Iraqi government is weaker than the parties and this is the main obstacle to resolving this file.
The Iraqi MP believes that the most appropriate mechanism for resolving the file of smuggled funds is through "handing over the file to international companies specialized in this field."
On the internationalization of corruption files and smuggled money, Cougar explains that "the Iraqi government has so far been unwilling to move in this context and does not have a real will, despite Western countries expressing their willingness to cooperate." Those endeavors ”.
Cougar concludes, "We have proposed several steps in this context, the first of which relates to exempting those involved from legal prosecution in exchange for returning those funds, and giving a percentage to informants of corruption money, yet there is no real will in the context of moving to resolve this file."
Corruption protection of the political system
On the other hand, the former head of the Integrity Commission, Judge Rahim Al-Aqili, estimates that the amount of money smuggled abroad is up to “600 billion dollars, because most of the corruption money is smuggled abroad,” indicating that “this volume of money is added to corruption money from outside the country's general budget, which It will reach the limits of another $ 600 billion through the seizure of internal state resources, including state real estate, natural resources and other aspects.
Al-Aqili pointed out that “recovering money smuggled abroad is a complex issue in all experiences around the world, and even what succeeded from those experiences continued for at least twenty years,” indicating that many complex reasons stand in the way of embarking on resolving this file, the most important of which is “failure The interest of successive governments and state institutions in this file, which requires the conclusion of bilateral agreements with the countries to which Iraqi funds have escaped, and the opening of legal channels for dealing with them.
And he continues, "Iraq has not put pressure on the countries that benefit from economic cooperation with him in this context, and no agreements have been concluded regarding the exchange of suspects."
The judge believes that the influential forces are keen to protect those accused of corruption for two reasons: “The first is that these forces want to continue with thefts, and the second is related to fear of threats to expose the accused to other parties involved,” noting that “the tools of oversight and the law are unable to resolve these files due to political influence. Who exerts pressure on her and prevents her from carrying out her duty, which led to the persistence and rampant corruption.
He believes that "many officials involved in corruption files have protected their other nationalities and laws that prevent the extradition of the accused."
Al-Aqili pointed out that “the threats and pressures that are exerted on the agencies concerned with combating corruption are boundless, but the pressures that lead to results are those that are exerted on judges, who do not enjoy security or job protection,” adding that “empowering the state’s tools concerned with combating corruption is The main focus for resolving this problem is not exceptional solutions, but rather strategic and institutional solutions that adopt stable and continuous rules.
He concludes that "the pillars of combating corruption are not limited to the investigative tasks and prosecution of the accused. There are steps that are no less important, such as imposing transparency, when everything is revealed in relation to corruption."
Influential people involved, and official procedures are absent
It seems that what complicates the resolution of this large file, which testifies to the great corruption of the current political era, is the involvement of influential figures and parties in these files, in addition to the failure of official tools to initiate internal procedures to prosecute the major accused and then start to approach external authorities to recover these funds.
On the other hand, a professor of economics at the Iraqi University, Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani, explains that “the return of smuggled funds requires at least five years, in addition to the necessity to institute legal cases against the accused inside Iraq and then go to foreign countries to seize these funds,” indicating that this task "Not easy."
He adds, "Estimates on these funds vary, but they are mostly estimated at 350 billion dollars, despite the existence of other estimates up to 600 billion dollars."
On the government's actions in this regard, Al-Mashhadani believes that "this file requires initiation of steps inside Iraq, and then the formation of an international lawyers team to follow up the file externally."
Al-Mashhadani points to an easier proposal related to “the possibility that the public prosecution team may file cases against those involved in corruption in the countries in which these funds are kept for seizure,” adding that “this procedure will limit the continuation of these operations.”
He points out that "the majority of countries are ready to cooperate, but Iraq has not taken the first steps because those involved in these issues are mostly influential officials in the Iraqi state."
Leaks about a political agreement
Despite observers' talk about the inability of the Iraqi government to resolve the file of money smuggled abroad and prosecute those involved in corruption cases, Iraqi newspapers reported news through informed sources, revealing an agreement between the Iraqi government and the heads of all political leaders to issue arrest warrants against officials. Involved in theft and smuggling of funds.
The Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada quoted unnamed sources as saying that “the committee has completed investigations with a number of government officials, and will soon issue arrest warrants against 22 officials between a former and current minister, an undersecretary, a director general, and the head of an independent commission,” expecting that “the deal will be returned nearly Approximately 150 billion dollars to the state treasury.
The newspaper, quoting the source, indicated that "the accused involved in large corruption files will be brought before the courts in the near future," while the source said that "the agreement stipulated the release of those accused or those involved in stealing money in exchange for returning it to the state treasury."
Show attempts
In a related context, observers rule out that the government will initiate the settlement of this file, especially given that it is unable to resolve its confrontation with groups outside the framework of the state, indicating that it is nothing more than show attempt.
On the other hand, Professor of Political Science Iyad Al-Anbar believes that “political will does not seem to be available to the current government in resolving these files,” indicating that “political forces will not allow the opening of corruption files because everyone is involved in them, in addition to the fact that the existing political norm does not classify hegemony over these files. State resources as corruption ”.
Regarding Al-Kazemi's ability to resolve these files, Al-Ambar points out that “Al-Kazemi is unable to fight the forces outside the framework of the state and that dominate more than one place of corruption, so how will he confront political partners who control state institutions”, pointing out that “any attempt to fight corruption begins with forming Parallel committees for the institutions concerned with this file are a non-serious show-stopping attempt aimed at marketing only.
He believes that “the existing equation in Iraq is that what is considered corruption by the political class as spoils and rights for political participation, and the entire political process is based on the distribution of positions and the sharing of the rentier economy and its resources in Iraq,” explaining that “Al-Kazemi is unable not only to open previous corruption files, but even About reducing this corruption in the future.
Regarding the case of Hazem al-Shaalan and other political figures involved in corruption and money smuggling, the amber shows that “there is a real inability even in the pursuit of those who lift the political cover and those who do not have partisan extensions, because they may open the door to other files, in addition to that it is not possible to accept selectively striking a citizen. Corruption ”.
Ahmed Al-Suhail
Arabic Independent LINK