KTFA Members "News and Views" Saturday Morning 11-2-19

KTFA:

RockCharlie29:  Something to ponder,

Market share... Iraqi market share has grown over the last 5 to 10 years in 2019 started to contract Iraqis GDP 90% consists of oil sales.

We have seen the IMF talk to countries in the middle east about finding new ways to support their economies other than oil. Because they know the price of oil is going to come down.

Iran attacked Armco in SA which drove oil prices up for about a week.

Until President Trump opened up our oil reserves it's brought the prices back down within two weeks.
With the technologies that we have to extract oil it is much cheaper today for us to extract oil than 10 years ago.

President Trump is renegotiates trade deals because the petro dollar is going to die as will the federal reserve.

United States economy is the largest in the world it consists of 77% of the world markets China has lost 2 trillion worth of market share United States has picked up 2 trillion in the last 2 years.
In December of this year OPEC is going to meet again and discuss cutbacks on production in order to stabilize the market price of oil President Trump wants cheap oil and can do it in days by opening up our reserves again.

While there's many factors in determining currencies value market share plays a big part.

My point is this Iraq has no choice but to add value to their currency in order to enter are markets in order to gain market share.

The thieving politicians in Iraq could put it off previously due to the fact that Iraq was gaining market share with Iraq's market share contracting due to OPEC cutbacks they really have no choice but to add purchasing power to their currency.

This is all in IMO  a lot of what the CBI has done has been done for a while when you take into consideration the articles that KTFA has / is provided a lot of it what has been told to us was told to us over a year ago that we're just now starting to see.

But I truly believe they have no choice they cannot put this off much longer if they do President Trump could open up our reserves and decimate their economy I remember him stating he would like to see oil prices around $23 a barrel let that sinking for a minute.
I'm Smiling and so should you.

Samson:  China announces preliminary agreement with Washington on trade

1st November, 2019
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the Chinese and US negotiating teams reached a preliminary agreement on trade between the two countries.

Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He had a telephone conversation with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that the two sides "had a serious and constructive discussion on how to address the main points of concern and reached agreement on principles." The ministry said the two sides also discussed the arrangement of the following discussions on the subject.

For his part, the US Trade Representative's office announced "progress in various areas" during the White House and Mnuchin discussions with China. The US office did not confirm the initial agreement announced by the Chinese side.

The United States and China are working on an agreement on trade that is intended to end the "trade war" waged by the administration of US President Donald Trump earlier.  LINK

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Samson:  Oil Prices Rise 4% On US-China Trade Talks

2nd November, 2019
Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Friday, supported by signs of progress in US-China trade talks and stronger-than-expected economic data in both countries, including US jobs and Chinese factory activity.

Brent crude futures ended the session up $ 2.07, or 3.5%, to settle at $ 61.69 a barrel but ended the week down about 0.4%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $ 2.02, or 3.7%, to settle at $ 56.20 a barrel, but fell 0.8% over the week.

A Reuters survey showed that oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the current and next year. A survey of 51 economists and analysts predicted Brent would average $ 64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $ 62.38 a barrel next year. Another Reuters survey found that OPEC output recovered in October from an eight-year low.

Concerns about global economic growth and oil demand eased after US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Friday the "first phase" of a trade deal with China appeared to be in good shape and was likely to be signed around mid-November.   LINK

Samson:  British newspaper: Saudi investors are beginning to move their money out of the country

2nd November, 2019
Confidence of Saudi investors has become shaky as a result of the situation in Saudi Arabia, noting that many businessmen have begun to transfer their money out of the Kingdom.

The newspaper said in a report published by the "BBC" excerpts from it and saw it (information), that "the reduction of government spending by Saudi Arabia strictly in accordance with the economic reform plan pursued by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman paid off for the first time in three "But at the same time, businessmen have been hit hard by new government measures that have raised costs for them and shaken investor confidence as Mohammed bin Salman tries to reform the Middle East's largest economy."

She added that "Saudi Finance Minister, Mohammed Jadaan Egypt that "sentiment has become positive, "where statements projected budget indicates that government spending in 2020 will fall to 1.02 trillion Saudi riyals compared to the projected budget for this year, amounting to 1.05 trillion riyals, while it is expected to decline to 955 billion riyals in 2022.” The newspaper pointed out that "local capital owners are divided about the impact of the decline in government spending on the local market where some see that there is a rise in the activities of the local market, while the other section that the local market is still not benefited from this decline yet," stressing that "some companies The local government still suffers from the imposition of fees on foreign labor, which constitutes about 90% of the private sector, in addition to the government's efforts to implement the Saudization law.

Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, does not hide that “there are fears that expectations of a decline in government spending will not be realized due to the decline in the world oil price, in addition to the time the government needs to implement its mega projects that will contribute to the growth of the state's dependence on non-oil sources of public income. For the country.

"The confidence of businessmen and businessmen has not yet recovered from the Crown Prince's campaign against corruption in 2017, in which more than 300 business leaders and princes were held at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, and had to pay a lot of money and hand over financial assets to secure their release," she said.

 "What happened has led many Saudi capitalists to transfer their money abroad, which contributed to the slow growth of investment in the local economy, and the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi slowed the flow of foreign investment to the Kingdom."  LINK

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Samson: Lebanon's banks continue to operate for a second day after two weeks of closure

2019/11/2 12:24

Banks in Lebanon continue to operate for the second day in a row, after resuming their activities on Friday, after two weeks of closure due to protests calling for change in the country.

The Central Bank of Lebanon has pledged not to impose restrictions on the movement of funds, measures that could hamper the availability of the currency and investment Lebanon needs to weather its worst economic crisis. More than $4 million is expected to be withdrawn from banks that are struggling in the US currency, adding to pressure on the lira. The reopening of the banks followed the resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri this week, a key demand of protesters, who blocked main roads and rallied in public squares.

Lebanese have been protesting since October 17 to demand an end to rampant corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades. There were fears that the reopening of Lebanese banks could lead many customers to withdraw their savings, but by mid-Friday, the banks appeared to be operating normally. There were no signs of long lines or frustrations at four branches of various banks in central Beirut, and customers leaving the branches said they were operating normally.

In some parts of the city, some local banks had people waiting in line, but crowds were expected two weeks after the closure.

ATMs continued to operate during the crisis, although many stopped using the long-accepted US dollar as a second currency. The central bank has not imposed any capital controls, which would undermine confidence in the economy, but private banks appear to have imposed their own restrictions. Some banks do not allow clients to withdraw $ 2,000 a week in foreign currency, and some impose a total ban on the transfer of funds abroad.  LINK