KTFA Members "News and Views" Friday Afternoon 10-16-2020

KTFA:

Ross:  If they RI at 1:1 and if they stay at that rate for say several weeks without a float most people will exchange their IQD just to get off this roller coaster ride.  This would save Iraq a ton of money. What do you think ?

DCDriver:  IMO it’s about demand once it goes international. Just like the dollar has gains and losses so should the dinar IMO

StephenMac63:  If they RI at 1 to 1.... the iqd is already in use inside of the country, what they are looking for is a better value than 1190 it's sitting at now. CBI said the value will be 1 QD will equal 1 USD. That's for the inside of the country.

The Reinstatement.....thats for Iraq to have bragging rights to the world. This will be seen on Forex, CBI website, and at your local bank.

If Iraq was reintroduced to the world at a rate of 1 USD per 1 IQD, what would happen? Yes, many of the Dinarians will jump off the train and head-on with their lives. CBI is expecting that in any case. But more importantly, there were several laws that were put into place....and this allowed them to be International....of which has more value than being under sanctions, therefore, it's highly probable that we won't ever see 1 to 1. Iraq will always see, in-country, that 1 USD is 1 IQD. But it's the value that counts.

Once it's International and if it came out at 1 to 1, Forex would get a hold of this, and the currency market would be in a flurry. The only reason Forex would get a hold of it is because it would be international. With that labeling comes Laws, that offers protection to both Iraq and to International investors. As an International Investor, you would want International protection....and this is offered with the laws.

What kind of International Investor would purchase large amounts of IQD once it's International?

Hedge Fund Firms.....if they see that the IQD is at 1 USD and comes with legal protection, you can bet they would try and buy every single IQD possible because once it hit $4 per IQD (speculative), they would have made 3 dollars profit on a 1 dollar investment.

It is, for this reason, I do not see 1 IQD be 1 USD on Forex. I expect more. Yes, it will fluctuate at some point but everyone has to decide how long they want to be in it for. Liberal Hedge Fund firms will take a chance on getting involved with something speculative in hopes of striking it rich. Conservative firms will generally stick with a tried and true process, but they don't make as much, per se.

My guess, with the number of people that hold the IQD at this moment, 80+/- percent will exchange at a dollar( if it's even available at that upon entering the International arena)....and it wont take two weeks, probably more like 1 week. OK, more like 4 days max. The other 20 percent will probably exchange a note, set themselves up, pay off bills and start their plan while they wait and watch....just a guess.

Imo, of course SM63

Ross:  Thanks you said it so much better than I could. I tend to agree with you 100%  I too would be a 20%er. IMO most people who hold dinars are not aware of the excellent teaching we get at KTFA and would just be happy to just move on. We may not know the outcome of the election for awhile but if the dems (God forbid) get in they will tax us heavily to finance their programs.  Remember in their class warfare we would be considered the evil "rich".  However even if Iraq comes out at a fixed 1:1 for a period I think it will allowed to float well before EOY.  If it comes out much higher as we hope then this conversation is irrelevant but fun.  Now if someone would just push the button to get the ball rolling.

Samson:  The Iranian currency is undergoing the biggest collapse

16th October, 2020
The price of the dollar exceeded the barrier of 32,000 Iranian tomans, setting a record.

Today, gold markets also witnessed an increase after a limited decline, as the markets recorded the price of an ounce of gold at 16 million and 200 thousand tomans. 

And the head of the Central Bank, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, had expected that Iran's markets would witness increased pressure in the coming weeks, ahead of the highly sensitive US elections.  LINK

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Samson:  Sudan decides on the normalization of relations with Israel

16th October, 2020

Sudan decided to proceed with the normalization of relations with Israel after an American deadline that gives officials in Khartoum 24 hours to do so in exchange for removing the country from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, according to what a source close to the Sudanese leadership told i24News. The news station reported that the decision was made after heated discussions on Wednesday.

According to the network's report, the warning included an offer to remove Sudan from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, work to remove it from the list of travel ban countries, work to increase aid, and commit to facilitating private investment, arranging an investment conference in the country, and exempting Khartoum from billions of dollars in debt to the United States. Among other benefits. And the Sudanese Prime Minister, Abdullah Hamdok, last September, said that the country does not want to link its removal from the list of terrorism, which hinders obtaining foreign funding for the country's economy, with the normalization of relations with Israel. Sudan’s leaders did not rule out establishing relations with Israel as part of the US offer to provide economic aid worth $ 300 million, in addition to $ 3 billion in debt relief and investments.

Earlier this month, the vice president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, told Sudanese TV 24 station that his country attaches great importance to establishing relations with Israel so that it can be removed from the US terrorism list. Sudan does not have relations with Israel, which on September 15 signed two historic agreements to normalize relations with the UAE and Bahrain. And US sanctions were imposed on Sudan in 1993 over the background of its harboring of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. During the rule of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan received on its lands extremist Islamists, especially bin Laden, who lived there from 1993 to 1996 before moving to Afghanistan.

Sudan paid a price for that when the United States decided to impose sanctions on it, beginning in 1990, and included it on its blacklist of countries accused of "sponsoring terrorism."    LINK

DeepWoodz:  I may be naive but freakin awesome! Imo

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Samson:  Deputy explains the reasons for the high price of the dollar against the dinar

16th October, 2020

On Friday, a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Naji Al-Saeedi, revealed the reasons behind the high exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar in the local market.

Al-Saeedi said in an interview with Alsumaria News, "Any country that is exposed to a financial policy crisis, its monetary policy will be affected in turn," indicating that "Iraq Today, it operates according to a fixed exchange rate system, and it is very exaggerated and supports the external product, not the local."

Al-Saeedi added, "The shift from the fixed exchange rate to the creeping exchange rate, especially in periods of financial instability, will have a very negative impact on the expectations side, as if the price is raised to a point or two, it may affect four or five points in the market and this is for him."

Negative effects on low-income people and the simple citizen," stressing that "the use of inflationary financing or the new monetary issuance as the government borrowed treasury bonds from the central bank, the latter did not use the existing hard currency reserves, but rather used the new cash issue."

Iobey777:  This is another HUGE article! Speaks volumes! did they just tell us they are using the NSCN’s??(Lower Denominations)  WOW!!  

MilitiaMan:  So it appears they have issued bonds with a new cash issue. That would seem to be at a new rate too. As they were not very successful in selling bonds (if I recall) in the past while at a program rate. Again this is an example of using more of a negative slant with verbiage while telling us the positive. If they sold Bonds with a new cash issue and not at a program rate, then they'll be exposing that new cash issue in short order... imo.. ~ MM

Samson:  The government intends to apply income tax to salaries and allowances, starting from the current month

16th October, 2020

Informed political sources revealed that the government intends to issue a decision to apply the income tax law to the total salary since October

The Ministry of Finance imposes an income tax of 3% to 15% on the nominal salary of employees

The sources, who preferred not to be named, told Al-Iqtisad News that the government is directing a major crisis in providing liquidity to pay the salaries of employees, especially this month, noting that the salaries of this month are witnessing a large deficit after the government has exhausted internal loans and that oil revenues are not Enough for that

She noted that the application of the Income Tax Law on the total salary, not just the nominal salary, will give the government an amount of 600 billion dinars

The government applies an income tax from one dinar to 500,000 dinars at a rate of 3%, and if the salary is more than 500,000 to one million dinars, then the income tax is 5%, and if it is more than a million to 2 million, then 10% is applied, and if it is more than 2 million dinars, it applies. 15%  LINK

Itsmedt:  Don’t walk past this one. Income tax + a program rate= major civil unrest!  

MilitiaMan:  Exactly, there are many things showing up that equate to more pressure. This would be one of them.. Putting taxes on them without Purchasing Power? That will not fly.. imo !~ MM