Iraq News Highlights and Points To Ponder Tuesday AM 7-2-24

Iraq's Economy Under The Bullets: How Violence Affects Investment

July 2, 2024  Baghdad/Al-Masala Event: The spread of weapons in Iraq represents a major challenge to security and stability in Iraq, while it is difficult to reach an accurate number that limits the number of weapons that Iraqis possess.

However, unofficial reports indicate that the number exceeds 15 million weapons, ranging from light, medium and heavy.

This widespread proliferation of weapons is mainly due to the inability to enforce the law on everyone, which creates a chaotic environment dominated by armed conflicts.

Tribal conflicts, especially in the southern and central Euphrates regions, are among the most prominent manifestations of this chaos, as tribes fight using heavy and medium weapons, leading to many casualties.

International armed groups are spreading in Iraq, whether on the border with Syria or in the northern regions of the country. These groups are often linked to neighboring countries, such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party, contributing to increasing the complexity of the security scene in Iraq and exacerbating the problem of the spread of weapons.

Dozens of Iraqis are killed every month due to the use of weapons, whether in tribal conflicts or in individual crimes.

As for the arms market in Iraq, it is difficult to control, according to a security source who says: “Weapons are traded illegally and at high prices, which makes it difficult for the authorities to control this market.”

Even doctors in Iraq face death threats while working in hospitals, reflecting the extent to which the spread of weapons affects various aspects of daily life.

The Iraqi police forces find it difficult to confront the loose weapons, as they fear intervening in armed conflicts for fear of being attacked.

This situation reflects the state's weakness in imposing its control over all areas and maintaining security effectively.

Under these circumstances, it becomes necessary to take serious measures to limit the spread of weapons in Iraq, by strengthening the capabilities of the security services and strictly enforcing the law on everyone, in addition to enhancing cooperation with the international community to limit the flow of weapons into the country.

In his government program, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani pledged to end the phenomenon of loose weapons outside the official and legitimate institutions.

The spread of weapons in Iraq has significant negative effects on the lives of individuals and society in general, as it contributes to the rise in rates of violent crimes, such as murder, theft, and armed assaults, which makes the daily lives of individuals more dangerous and increases the feeling of insecurity.

Armed conflicts between clans result in many casualties and destruction of property, and these conflicts are often long-lasting and exacerbate social tensions. https://almasalah.com/archives/95819

The Dollar In The Parallel Market.. Al-Sudani’s Advisor Presents A Different Vision And Economic Experts: An Imaginary Stability

2024-07-02 Shafaq News/ The advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister disagreed with what four economic experts said regarding the "stability" of the US dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, stressing that "the stability of the dollar is real and solid and not imaginary as some believe."

However, the economic experts said that the stability is "not reassuring," and what is happening now is a decrease in the dollar's volatility, while stability will occur when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank.

The Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, says, “The exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market today in our country does not constitute any relative importance in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1,220 dinars per dollar.

It is a stable trend for the exchange rate and the stable external value of the dinar revolves around it, which is embodied by the state of stability in the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent.”

Saleh added to Shafaq News Agency, "Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, whose value as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion,

which is the highest in the history of Iraq in the development of its international reserves, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market due to urgent international or regional political events here and there."

He explains, "After the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year, legally, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets and at a rate of 10 percent of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."

Saleh concluded by saying, “Accordingly, the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar to the dollar that the country is witnessing, even in the secondary markets above, is a real and solid stability and not an illusion as some believe.

Rather, it is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and fiscal policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country and containing the inflationary expectations that were caused by the forces of the parallel exchange market during the past years.”

But the economic researcher, Ali Abdul-Kazem, explained that “the stability of the dollar occurs when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank, but until now its price is more than 15 points above the official price in the budget, so there is no stability, but the fluctuation in the parallel market is somewhat stable as a result of several things, including the increase in the number of dollars that were for pilgrims.”

Abdul-Kazem added to Shafaq News Agency, "The budget has not been launched yet and its implementation began this month, and this also has an impact, as well as increasing the Central Bank's sales of dollars, and the recession witnessed by the markets reduces import operations, and all these reasons and others have helped to keep the dollar low in the current markets, as for the stabilization process, when the dollar reaches the official price, then it can be said that the dollar price has stabilized between the parallel and official."

The economic expert, Karim Al-Helou, agrees with what Ali Abdul-Kazem said regarding the instability of the dollar, “but these are temporary cases, because the issue of the dollar in Iraq is supply and demand. When bank transfers abroad increase without obstacles and routine, the demand for the dollar decreases, which leads to its decline.

When there are obstacles in Iraqi banks, especially with Iran, from which Iraq imports 13 billion dollars annually, we need hard currency to deliver it to Iran, or some places where a platform has not been opened, such as Iran and others, these require going to the market.”

Al-Halou explained to Shafaq News Agency, "This stability is temporary and lasts for days, and there are mafias specializing in the dollar that have huge amounts of dollars that they put down in the market, which leads to a decrease in its price, and then they buy it again and the supply decreases, which leads to demand for it and its price rises again."

He points out that "the budget has not been launched yet, and many projects are stalled due to the lack of advances for these projects, although the Prime Minister recently launched the delivery of advances, but it takes time due to the bureaucracy. Therefore, in this case, the demand for imported materials from abroad decreases, and therefore the demand for the dollar decreases, which leads to a kind of calm and stability that exists."

He explains, "Iraq imports 90 percent of its materials from abroad, most of which are in dollars. Some countries have opened platforms for them, and the Central Bank's transfers amount to 280 million dollars, which is a huge amount. In addition, citizens' travel for Hajj and other purposes, in addition to the summer vacation not starting for the sixth grade, all of this leads to a decrease in demand for the dollar."

“Therefore, all these factors lead the dollar to calm and stability. It previously fell to 144, but then rose again to 148, and the difference with the official 1320 is more than 15 points. Therefore, this is not stability. Rather, the correct stability is as it was before, when it was 1120 in the Central Bank and 1121 abroad. This situation continued for years, and strategic projects were set at 1121 for the dollar.

However, after former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi raised the dollar price against the dinar, the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, came and restored it, but the fluctuation continued, due to the presence of mafias, a political lobby, and banks affiliated with parties that have a relationship with the dollar file.”

Al-Halou concluded his speech by saying, “Therefore, the stability is not reassuring and not natural. Rather, it is merely periods for certain cases related to imports, travel, and all factors related to the exit of the dollar from Iraq.”

This is what the economic expert, Diaa Mohsen, also went to, who explained that “what is rumored about the stability of the US dollar exchange rate in the local market is a lie that some of those who ride the government ship are trying to promote, because the citizen knows that when the Prime Minister presented his government program to the Iraqi Council of Representatives, one of his priorities was to reduce the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, and many pages were created to promote this topic, but to no avail,” he said.

Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Mohsen attributed the rise in the US dollar exchange rate in the local market to a number of reasons that the Central Bank of Iraq could not address.

Either because it knows these reasons (and this is a disaster) but it cannot confront those responsible for this rise, or because it does not know these reasons (and this disaster is greater than the previous one) because the Central Bank of Iraq is entrusted with the money of the Iraqi people and not following up on this money and its spending doors is a breach of trust, he said.

He added, "Therefore, the talk about the stability of the US dollar in the local market is not true, because everyone knows that the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar occurred during the Eid al-Adha holiday, and there is a relatively long holiday. In addition to that, Iraqi traders have begun to use other methods than smuggling the dollar out of Iraq, which is represented by buying gold and smuggling it."

He continued, "In general, we do not believe that the monetary authority, with its confusion in taking measures, can control the exchange rate of the US dollar, nor do the executive authority's measures have the ability to limit currency smuggling operations, whether foreign currency or gold. As for prices, they will not exceed 1,500 dinars per dollar and will not fall below 1,450 dinars per dollar."

While the economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Shaikhli, believes that “the fluctuation in the dollar price is a natural matter, and it continues from time to time as a result of being affected by the smallest details, including the departure and return of pilgrims, so the price will remain between 1450 and 1500 dinars continuously, and the fluctuation between these two numbers is a natural thing.”

Al-Shaikhli pointed out during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, "There are some residents abroad who control the currency by issuing and withdrawing the dollar when anything happens inside Iraq, taking advantage of opportunities to manipulate its price. This situation exists in all countries of the world and may be very clear in Iraq because we have not witnessed this experience before, but this remains a natural issue, and we should not worry about it, but if it continues for a long time, it can then be considered an abnormal event."  LINK