Frank26 Thoughts on Rates, Chap.7, Bonds and more.....12-25-2021

KTFA:

Frank26:  “IN 2003 THE RATE WAS 4500 TO 1……….IT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 1460 & CONTINUES TO BE REDUCED TO: 1 TO 1″……..F26

Economist: What The Central Bank Has Achieved In Terms Of Monetary Reserves Requires The Government To Reduce The Exchange Rate

16th December, 2021

The economic expert Wissam Al-Tamimi said, on Thursday, that the cash reserve achieved by the Central Bank exceeded 64 billion dollars, making it imperative for the government to reduce the dollar exchange rate a year after the decision to raise it by 23 percent.

Al-Tamimi said in a statement to Al-Maalouma, “The Central Bank’s assurances on achieving a cash reserve of 64 billion dollars, is only a message to the government regarding issuing a decision either to continue the exchange rate rise or reduce it.”

Frank26:  (WHICH DO YOU THINK THEY TOOK BASED ON ALL THE ARTICLES – F26)

He added, “There are many question marks on the government, especially since there is a great financial abundance achieved from oil revenues and the high exchange rate, at a time when no final accounts have been conducted so that everyone can know the recovered or realized funds for the current year.”

Al-Tamimi explained, “The cash reserve achieved by the Central Bank should be faced with a decrease in the exchange rate in the local market, especially since poverty rates have risen according to the statistics of the Ministry of Planning, which needs a quick treatment to remedy what the citizen may resort to to achieve a living, especially that the total prices the purchasing power of the citizen as well as the owners of the markets has increased and decreased, and therefore, continuing with this approach will lead the country to a dangerous slide.”   LINK

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Economist: The Monetary Reserve Achieved By The Central Bank Should Be Faced With A Reduction In The Exchange Rate    LINK

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Frank26:  “ARAB COUNTRIES DESPERATE FOR IRAQ’S CURRENCY TO BECOME A CENTRAL HUB IN THE MIDDLE EAST”…………F26

“Tsunami” scattered Turkish, Syrian, Lebanese and Iranian liras… How did that happen?

16th December, 2021

The currencies of four regional countries, namely Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Iran, are reeling under the weight of a group of overlapping elements, at home and abroad, and they raised serious questions during their resounding decline in 2021, whether they could withstand or perhaps improve a little in the year 2022 in light of the intertwined complexities of its causes.

This monetary instability of the four countries risks clearly threatening their political and social stability, which sometimes raises popular protests, and fears about the ability of the political authorities in them to contain the economic crisis or even the ability of this authority to survive, with the worsening deterioration of living conditions, and the combination of external pressures such as sanctions, in Creating conditions that do not suggest future stability.

Turkish lira

Turkey appears to be a unique case for understanding this complex scene, as the lira has witnessed a decline of more than 45% against the dollar since the beginning of 2021, while its largest loss was recorded by 30% since the end of last October alone, while the inflation rate exceeded more than 21%.

There is widespread debate in Turkey and abroad about what should be done to deter this deterioration, especially since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly intervened in the economic crisis, preferring to keep interest rates low according to his convictions that their rise would enhance the profits of the rich and increase the suffering of the poor. The Central Bank recently cut interest rates from 16 to 15 percent, this is the third time it has reduced the rate during this year.

The collapse of the lira and the rise in inflation rates sparked popular protests in Istanbul and Ankara, after the value of commodities, including food, rose dramatically, with the collapse of the value of the Turkish lira, which lost, for example, 18% in one day on November 23 last. In an attempt to contain fears, the Turkish authorities say that the inflation rate is 21%, but economists and opponents say that the authorities are hiding the real figure, which is 58%.

The salaries of the majority of employees and workers are no longer sufficient for them to make ends meet, after their pensions lost their purchasing power in light of inflation, in a country where the minimum wage is about 2,800 Turkish liras, which is equivalent to only about 200 dollars, knowing that the dollar was equal to eight liras before the current crisis and exceeded Currently the 13 lira.

According to the estimates of economic experts, due to the rise in commodity prices and the collapse in the value of salaries, many Turkish citizens resort to trying to buy dollars to ensure the remaining value of the money in their possession, and they also resort to buying dollars for merchants and industrialists to ensure the continuity of their businesses and their profits, and this craving for dollars enhances The loss of the lira in its importance and consequently the rise in the value of the dollar.

It is no secret to say that the Turkish lira is also affected by external factors, including the severe tension that affected relations with Washington, as well as competition and regional conflict with countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Turkish military involvement in northern Syria and the Libyan war, and disagreements with the French in particular, in addition to involvement in the war. Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean, which almost turned into a spark of fighting with Greece and the French, and escalating differences with Egypt.

One of the paradoxes of the Turkish lira crisis is that it left its negative effects on the areas under Turkish control in northern Syria, where the local authorities loyal to Turkey in those areas began to adopt the Turkish lira in financial transactions and commercial movement closely related to the Turkish economic wheel, and the collapse of the lira contributed to causing damage A significant increase in the incomes of the residents of those areas and their living ability and the rise in commodity prices, after they abandoned the adoption of the Syrian pound, in favor of the Turkish lira.

Syrian Lira

To demonstrate the extent of the deterioration of the Syrian pound, it is sufficient to point out that the dollar was equivalent to about 47 pounds about ten years ago, that is, with the beginning of the Syrian war, in which internal and external forces were involved, but it is currently equivalent to about 3,500 on the black market, after it had reached more than 3,500 months ago. From four thousand pounds.

The Syrian state has lost its economic viability, after many major cities and governorates came out of its control and production was disrupted, in light of the war that erupted since 2011 between government forces and armed opposition factions, which were dominated by “jihadists” and “terrorists” in the subsequent years.

And as soon as the fires of war began to fade dramatically, in light of an almost total international boycott of the Syrian state, with the exceptions of Russia, China and Iran, which maintained their military and economic support for Damascus, the administration of former US President Donald Trump imposed “Caesar’s Law” sanctions that tightened the screws on any Financial or economic dealings with Damascus, depriving it of the movement of funds and foreign trade relations, and also hit the heart of the reconstruction projects that had begun to loom on the horizon, and they could have contributed to ensuring the flow of foreign currencies into the country, and thus providing a certain type of monetary protection to the Syrian pound.

And in an unexpected development, Lebanon plunged economically, and its banking sector, into the worst crisis in its contemporary history, and one of the results of which was the banks’ detention of depositors’ accounts, then imposing strict restrictions on their withdrawals, especially those opened in dollars, which put additional pressure on the Syrian economy and on the lira. Syrian.

Many were not surprised when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced last July that the biggest obstacle to investment in Syria is the Syrians’ frozen funds in troubled Lebanese banks, noting that estimates speak of between $40 billion and $60 billion of frozen Syrian funds. In Lebanon, which is “enough to thwart an economy the size of ours.”

In an attempt to circumvent the sanctions and Western boycott measures imposed on Damascus since the beginning of its civil war, many bypass companies have been formed, taking advantage of the Lebanese banking system and the commercial movement between Lebanon and Syria, in order to make it easier for itself to pay the price of imported goods to the Syrian market through Land crossings with Lebanon.

Therefore, experts say that the faltering of the Lebanese banking system contributed to inflicting a blow to the core on the Syrian pound, for which Lebanon was a lifeline, as the United Nations estimates the size of the losses that hit the Syrian economy during ten years, more than 530 billion dollars.

It was remarkable that with the faltering of the banking sector in Lebanon, the dollar began to rise strongly against the Syrian pound, reaching the limits of 5 thousand pounds for the first time in the history of Syria, before the Syrian authorities imposed repressive measures against manipulators selling and buying dollars, so the pound recovered slightly and reached 3,500 against One dollar.

Of course, this collapse of the Syrian pound, in light of a situation the Syrians did not return to from inflation and high prices, left its devastating effects on large social segments, especially thousands of families whose breadwinners depend on fixed government salaries, and their ability to secure food and pay electricity and generator bills and basic needs was damaged. the other.

To demonstrate the extent of the collapse that afflicted millions of Syrians, the employee’s salary was before the recent collapse crisis, which has been rolling in since last year, and was, for example, about 30,000 pounds, equivalent to 600 dollars, but now, despite its increase to 60,000 pounds, its value is no longer equivalent to only about 13 dollars.

It is clear, according to experts, that without a regional-international settlement of the Syrian war, which restores life to the Syrian economy, it will be difficult for the lira to continue to stand firm and stop its faltering, in a country where the United Nations World Food Program estimates that more than 12 million people suffer from hunger. 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and unemployment is more than 42%.

Lebanese pound

There is no more indicative description of the Lebanese scene, the description used by the World Bank about Lebanon when it said that what it has been suffering from since the fall of 2019, constitutes “one of the three worst economic crises in the world in 150 years.”

Since the beginning of the year 2020, the lira has begun to lose its value against the dollar, as it was at the time 1,500 pounds to the dollar, and today it touches 30,000 pounds according to the exchange rate on the black market, which constitutes a collapse that the Lebanese have not known before.

While the state maintained the minimum wage at about 700 thousand pounds when it was equivalent to about 500 dollars before the collapse, the minimum wage is now equivalent to less than 30 dollars, in conjunction with the dollar shortage crisis, while the banks refrained from paying dollar deposits to their owners, except according to conditions Tight and stiff.

According to experts, among the reasons that contributed to the collapse of the lira, the Central Bank, in an attempt to stop the deterioration in the banking sector, asked banks in the summer of 2020 to raise their capital by 20% to allow them to continue to operate in a more stable manner, which required them to impose Severe measures on depositors and their money, to avoid falling under the control of the Central Bank directly if it continues to stumble.

In the opinion of experts, a network of mutual benefits between the bank, politicians and money exchange companies colluded within a complex network of mechanisms to absorb dollars from the market and the pockets of citizens, to secure their interests, including the ability of banks to continue, which contributed to strengthening the price of the dollar through the huge demand for it, And thus to the historical collapse of the Lebanese pound.

Of course, there are other factors that paved the way for this collapse, and the Central Bank intervened in this painful way for hundreds of thousands of depositors. The Lebanese economy was suffering from clear features of fragility, affected by the repercussions of the Syrian war and sanctions on Damascus, the mismanagement of the state, corruption and the massive waste of scarce resources, and the disruption of the flow of investments Arab and Western countries on the country, including the negative effects of the closure measures resulting from the Corona epidemic since the year 2020.

Experts also point out the fact that Lebanon relies more than 80% on importing everything it needs from abroad, which represents a drain on the dollar’s ​​resources over the past three decades, whose total value exceeded tens of billions of dollars, while the country lacks an export value that achieves a balance with the import movement. Tyrant in all consumer sectors.

The protest movement that erupted in the fall of 2019, in addition to causing a lot of damage to the production cycle and securing the state’s resources from various taxes and fees due to the closure and disruption of government institutions, dramatically weakened the confidence needed for any operation in order to withstand the dollar, and a general feeling prevailed That the worst is yet to come, and that the citizens’ refuge in general is to convert their savings in pounds into dollars to reduce the level of their monetary loss.

Among the facts that were indicative of the mismanagement of the crisis, and the extent of the collapse, the official estimates indicated that Lebanon’s reserves of the dollar amounted to about 31 billion dollars before the “2019 revolution”, but it declined within months to 16 billion dollars, while Opponents say that many big and wealthy statesmen have smuggled billions of dollars of their money from Lebanese banks abroad. All of this precipitated the dramatic deterioration of the Lebanese pound, while major merchants took advantage of the dollar shortage crisis to control the prices of imported goods from abroad. And vitality, medicine, fuel, electricity and others.

Economic experts almost agree that without an effective government that has a bold vision to address the intertwined economic collapse, Lebanon will not be able to restore confidence in its system, and thus the confidence of investors and donors who first demand the implementation of broad reform measures to resume its financial provision.

Iranian Toman

The Iranian national currency has often suffered from large and uncontrolled fluctuations, especially in recent years with the escalation of Western sanctions, specifically the US, not on the Iranian economy alone, but on hundreds of institutions, companies and people, in an attempt to force Tehran to make concessions regarding its nuclear program and its influence. regional.

Currently, the dollar exchange rate ranges around 31,000 tomans, and it often declines in large proportions. For example, about a year ago, it was equivalent to 32,000 tomans, but then it fell to 22,000 tomans, after the Central Bank of Iran was forced to pump a lot of currency exchange rates. The dollar in the markets to curb the collapse.

Only a few months have passed since the new president, Ibrahim Raisi, assumed the presidency, and he pledged, as a priority, to address the economic crises and stop the deterioration of the toman against the dollar. However, figures indicate that the dollar, when he took office, was equivalent to about 25 thousand tomans, and thus recorded a decline of about 25%.

The collapse of the value of the Toman left its harsh impact on the lives of millions of Iranians who, like the Turks, Syrians and Lebanese, found their financial savings evaporating before their eyes, so they began to resort to buying dollars, or gold coins and real estate, to save what could be saved of their money, a rush that naturally also contributed to enhancing the value of and strengthening the dollar.

It is similar and intersects the elements and factors that cause the collapse of the national currencies of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Iran, with the specificity and uniqueness of each case, but what is common among them is that the economies of these countries are intertwined and affected by each other and by the ongoing regional developments, especially in the security and military turmoil that occurs here and there, as It is also affected by the developments of the Iranian nuclear file in Vienna, and what is happening in its nights and behind the scenes.

There remains a question regarding whether a comprehensive detente in one of those countries will have a direct impact on the other three countries, and what is the extent of this positive change. It also remains important to pay attention to the possible political effects of the continuation of the dark tunnel entered by the Turkish, Syrian, Lebanese and Iranian tomans, when it will end, and most importantly, the outcome of its final cost.  LINK

Frank26:  “CHAPTER 7 = A FLOAT”……….F26

 Completing the payment of compensation for the State of Kuwait

21st December, 2021

The payment of the last remaining installment of the State of Kuwait’s compensation amounting to (44) million US dollars has been completed, thus Iraq has completed the full payment of the compensation amounts approved by the United Nations Compensation Committee of the UN Security Council pursuant to Resolution No. (687) for the year 1991, with a total of (52.4) One billion US dollars for the State of Kuwait.

It is hoped that ending the payment of compensation will contribute to removing Iraq from Chapter VII, as well as its impact on re-integrating the Iraqi banking system with the global banking system and benefiting from the financial abundance that will be achieved.

Central Bank of Iraq
Media Office 
December 21, 2021     LINK

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Samson:  Kuwaiti Ambassador : The United Nations will issue a decision to close the compensation file on Iraq

25th December, 2021

The Kuwaiti ambassador to Baghdad, Salem Al-Zamanan, confirmed today, Saturday, that the Compensation Committee will issue a decision to permanently close the file of financial compensation.

Al-Zamanan said, during his visit to Anbar Governorate, to the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “I am very happy to be among my family and brothers in Anbar, which is witnessing a major urban campaign,” noting that “Kuwait does not only support Anbar, but supports all of Iraq and is always concerned with its security.” and stability.”

He added, “Since 2003, Kuwait has been a supporter of Iraq in various fields and has participated in alleviating the suffering of the displaced by building camps and providing them with the equipment they need, caravan schools and mobile medical clinics.”

He pointed out that “Kuwait at the donors’ conference in 2018 had contributions through a $100 million grant, which was allocated to the stricken governorates, including Anbar Governorate,” noting that “there are pledges in the Kuwait conference that still exist, as one billion dollars were allocated for the rehabilitation of infrastructure, as well as billion dollar investment.

He continued, “We are always present with the brothers in Iraq, and they are our people, our brothers and our brothers,” stressing that “there are great plans in the future that will be announced soon.”

On the compensation file, Al-Zamanan said, “The compensation approved by the United Nations had a deduction to meet it, and a decision will be issued close to the Compensation Committee to close this file permanently.”

And the Prime Minister’s Adviser for Economic Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, announced in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA), last Thursday, that “Iraq has ended the Kuwait war compensation file, as it paid the last payment of dues about less than 45 million dollars,” noting, that “with this, it paid Iraq has fulfilled all of its obligations imposed on it under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter and relevant Security Council resolutions in 1991.   LINK

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Frank25:  “THE LAST BANANA PEEL OF CHAPTER VII IS CHAPTER VI”……..F26

Legal: The Government Can Remove Iraq From Chapter VI After Paying Kuwait Compensation

24th December, 2021

The legal expert, Ali Al-Tamimi, explained that the government is required to act before the Security Council in order to remove the name of Iraq from Chapter VI after paying Kuwait’s compensation in full.

Al-Tamimi told Al-Maalouma, “Iraq was placed under Chapter VII of the United Nations after the invasion of Kuwait under UN Security Council Resolution No. 666 in 1990, and it came after warnings, warnings and an economic siege imposed on the country, then international sanctions came to put it under Chapter VII.” 

He added that “the personality of Iraq has become weak in international law, and it is not permissible for it to contract, import, export and conclude agreements, meaning that the government is like a caretaker government.”

And he indicated that “Iraq exited from Chapter VII in 2017 under Security Council Resolution No. 2390, and entered into Chapter VI due to the presence of $4.5 billion worth of belongings with Kuwait as compensation for its invasion in the nineties of the last century.”

He stressed that “Iraq, after fulfilling all its obligations contained in Chapter VI, has terminated all material obligations to Kuwait, and the government, through its representative at the United Nations, must notify the UN Security Council of this, in order to issue a decision that Iraq ends Chapter VI, and this has positive economic repercussions for the money to return.” granted to Kuwait to the state’s financial treasury.   LINK

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Frank26:  “GOVERNMENT BONDS DO NOT SELL AT A PROGRAM RATE”…….F26

The Central Bank offers the second issue of government bonds

21st December, 2021

The Executive Director of the Iraq Stock Exchange, Taha Abdel Salam, announced, on Tuesday, that the Central Bank of Iraq issued the second issuance of government bonds, “construction bonds” worth 2 trillion dinars

The Executive Director of the market said in a news article published on the social networking page “Facebook” and followed by “Al-Iqtisad News”, that the Central Bank has launched the second issue of government bonds, “construction bonds” with a value of 2 trillion dinars, after the success of marketing the first issue by the bank, which will be listed. and traded in the Iraq Stock Exchange

He added that the new issue is offered for public subscription as of December 20, 2021 through the Iraqi banking system, with the same mechanism of the Central Bank of Iraq issued in Book No. 6/6/2916 on 10/24/2021 and the subscription ends on January 19, 2022    LINK