.Frank, TNT, Mike Maloney and more.....Saturday Night 8-24-19


Samson:  Contrary to expectations .. Standard & Poor's: Iraq's economy will recover .. This is what will happen to the non-oil sectors

24th August, 2019

The US financial services company, Standard & Poor's, on Saturday (August 24, 2019), expected Iraq to recover from the deficit in the 2019 budget, through the gradual recovery of non-oil economic activity.

The company said in a new report on a number of Arab countries that Iraq will record a budget deficit in 2019 and the coming years, due to low oil prices and the needs of large spending.

S&P revealed that growth in Iraq could recover in 2019, supported by expected increases in oil production and a gradual recovery of non-oil economic activity.

The company said it could cut its ratings for Iraq if the government increased spending beyond its expectations.

A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Ahmed Mazhar al-Jubouri, confirmed Thursday (22 August 2019), the absence of a supplementary budget in the budget for this year 2019, while talked about the existence of serious indicators of a deficit exceeding the 72 trillion for next year

Jubouri said, in a special statement to (Baghdad today), "The budget law is one, and there is no supplementary budget for the current year

Jubouri added that “the supplementary budget occurs when there is a surplus in imports, but when there is no surplus we do not need the supplementary budget, especially since the indicators for the budget of 2020 are alarming for more than 72 trillion dinars budget deficit, and therefore there is no so-called supplementary budget   LINK


Samson:   Standard & Poor's confirms its credit rating of Iraq at B- / B with a stable outlook  LINK  


Streamed live 103 minutes ago


Courtesy of Dinar Guru

Dinar Investor - Jeff   Article:  "Baghdad and Kurdistan agree on partnership in international conferences and meetings

When you look at a lot of the current articles coming out between Kurdistan and Baghdad, they're strongly suggesting/indicating that the Kurds and Baghdad have reached an agreement, just not publicly announced it. 

So, ultimately that's what we are waiting for...to publicly announce it...that they have agreed ...and that they have everything worked out on the oil and Article 140 for the numbers in the 2020 budget...and then after that to know if the stage is officially set, we want to see what their next actions are...do they advance straight to the formation of the government or do they do something directly after that. 

That's what we are looking for to know if the stage is officially set based on how fast they advance to the formation of the government.  That will tell you everything you need to know.



Jim32:  As OKIE would say...If the window was open any wider you would fall out.....if it don't happen this week then there aint cow in Texas.....I always enjoyed OKIE.


Tishwash:  Vietnam likely to keep dong strong this year

Vietnam has room to keep its currency strong until year-end despite pressures from a rising dollar and falling yuan, analysts said.

On Friday the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, crossed the 98-point mark in the last three sessions, its highest level since May 2017 and almost 3 percent up since June-end. 

The Chinese yuan fell for the sixth consecutive session to 7.0931 to the dollar, the lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, and edging closer to the crucial 7.1 mark.

Global markets plunged when China allowed the yuan to fall below the key 7 threshold in early August, and investors piled into gold, safe-haven Japanese yen and bonds amid heightened worries of a global currency war, Reuters reported. 

But the recent volatility in the global market does not seem to have a big impact on Vietnam, Harry Loh, General Director of the Singapore-owned United Overseas Bank Vietnam, said.

Given the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) clear policy orientation to maintain stability and liquidity in the forex market since the beginning of the year, it will likely keep the dong/dollar trading band at around 2 percent for this year, and so overnight shocks in the market would be unlikely, said Harry Loh.

Several securities companies had also forecast in recent reports that the dong/dollar exchange rate was unlikely to change by more than 2-3 percent, a band Vietnam has maintained in recent years even with global pressures. 

According to Bao Viet Securities (BVSC), by the end of July the exchange rate had not changed much since the end of last year, and so the SBV has "sufficiently large room" to manipulate the dong. 

The pressure from a rising dollar could be kept at bay until this year because Vietnam has abundant foreign currency reserves, it said. 

"Year-end mergers and acquisitions such as BIDV selling a 15 percent stake to South Korea’s KEB Hana Bank, plans by Vietcombank to sell a 6.5 percent stake and MBBank selling 7.5 percent to foreign investors is expected to bring a lot of foreign currency into Vietnam," BVSC said. It expected the value of these M&A deals to reach $2 billion. 

According to Viet Dragon Securities, because FDI prospects are "excellent" this year, foreign exchange reserves will increase, meaning the SBV will have "significant room" to make currency interventions.

Foreign investment in Vietnam is expected to top $20 billion this year, a record high, according to Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB).

On Friday the SBV set the daily reference rate for the dollar at VND23,127. This meant the dong had depreciated by 1.98 percent from a year ago and 1.32 percent since the beginning of this year.  link

Mike Maloney:    The US Dollar Is On Life Support - Got Gold?

Premiered Aug 20, 2019

ZeroHedge article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-23/jpmorgan-we-believe-dollar-could-lose-its-status-worlds-reserve-currency

What is at the core of the latest turmoil in markets? Is it a trade war? Is it a yield curve inversion? Or is it something far more simple...like the fact that the US Dollar is on life support?