Bubble 4.0: Markets Reached ‘Record Levels’ Of Overvaluation, What's Next?
Bubble 4.0: Markets Reached ‘Record Levels’ Of Overvaluation, What's Next?
Davis Lin: 12-1-2024
David Hay and Jeff Dicks, Co-CIOs of Evergreen Gavekal, explain alternatives to a very frothy equities market, the outlook for the bond market, and the growth prospects for the economy under a second Trump term.
0:00 - Intro
1:05 - What is the Trump trade?
2:40 - Bond market recap
6:10 - Soft or no landing?
7:28 - Retail sales and the consumer
10:00 - Household net worth
11:20 - Real wages
12:25 - Fed monetary policy
13:40 - Global central bank policies
14:34 - U.S. dollar
17:20 - U.S. vs. emerging markets
18:45 - Deficit level
21:40 - Interest rate vs. Inflation
26:10- Tariffs and economic growth
27:25 - Bubble 4.0
31:33 - Alternatives to stocks
32:43 - Valuations point to lower returns
34:20 - Market cyclically
38:33 - U.S. the “envy of the world”
40:45 - Liquidity and market performance
24:45 - Economy now relies on foreign net savings
44:00 - Savings rate
45:30 - Mortgage spreads
48:22 - Mistakes of fixed income portfolios