Bubble 4.0: Markets Reached ‘Record Levels’ Of Overvaluation, What's Next?

Bubble 4.0: Markets Reached ‘Record Levels’ Of Overvaluation, What's Next?

Davis Lin:  12-1-2024

David Hay and Jeff Dicks, Co-CIOs of Evergreen Gavekal, explain alternatives to a very frothy equities market, the outlook for the bond market, and the growth prospects for the economy under a second Trump term.

0:00 - Intro

1:05 - What is the Trump trade?

2:40 - Bond market recap

 6:10 - Soft or no landing?

 7:28 - Retail sales and the consumer

10:00 - Household net worth

11:20 - Real wages

12:25 - Fed monetary policy

 13:40 - Global central bank policies

14:34 - U.S. dollar

17:20 - U.S. vs. emerging markets

18:45 - Deficit level

21:40 - Interest rate vs. Inflation

 26:10- Tariffs and economic growth

27:25 - Bubble 4.0

31:33 - Alternatives to stocks

32:43 - Valuations point to lower returns

34:20 - Market cyclically

38:33 - U.S. the “envy of the world”

 40:45 - Liquidity and market performance

24:45 - Economy now relies on foreign net savings

44:00 - Savings rate

45:30 - Mortgage spreads

48:22 - Mistakes of fixed income portfolios

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_oiUS5lBrc

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