Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Tuesday Morning 3-3-26

Airlines In The Region Are Losing Around $500 Million A Day

Money and Business    Economy News - Follow-up   WEGO Chief Business Officer Mamoun Humaidan said that daily losses for airlines are estimated at between $250 million and $500 million per day for companies that use the region's airports as a transit point.  He added that low-cost airlines are the most affected due to their lower profit margins.

Hamidan said that the aviation sector's problem has now branched out to include route changes and rising costs, and he expects IATA to intervene to solve the problem.

He noted that things were promising yesterday with the opening of some special flights to evacuate stranded travelers.

Meanwhile, travel company stocks suffered sharp losses yesterday, with their market value falling by $22.6 billion, amid escalating geopolitical concerns that have disrupted air travel globally.

Shares of U.S. airlines such as Delta Air Lines, United and American Airlines fell between 2% and 4%.

In Europe, shares of TUI fell by 10% and Lufthansa shares declined by 5.2%, while British Airways owner IAG lost about 5.5%.

Analysts from JPMorgan, Goodbody and Citigroup noted that Wizz Air is the most exposed in Europe due to its large presence in Israel.

On the other hand, Jefferies estimates that a 5% increase in fuel costs could reduce Delta and United's 2026 profits by between 5% and 10%, while American Airlines' profits could fall by about 35%.

The chaos in the global aviation sector worsened after airlines cancelled thousands of flights and changed the routes of others in the air, following the closure of large areas of airspace in the Middle East after military strikes carried out by the United States and Israel inside Iranian territory.

The widespread closure of airspace caused disruptions to extend to areas as far away as Brazil and Australia, as airlines were forced to cancel or divert flights that normally fly over the region. https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=66312

Gas Price In Europe Surpasses $700 As Iran Blocks Strait Of Hormuz

Today, 12:52   INA-SOURCES   The price of gas on the exchange in Europe has surpassed $700 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since January 2023 amid statements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the elite unit of the Iranian Armed Forces) on blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from London’s ICE.

The price of April futures contracts at the TTF hub in the Netherlands has jumped to around $711 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 59.015 euro per MWh (based on the current exchange rate of euro to dollar, figures for ICE are presented in euros per MWh).

The price growth since the beginning of the day has exceeded 30%.

Earlier, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to burn any tanker attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced later that the Strait of Hormuz was still open for civil navigation.

Moreover, state-owned oil and gas company Qatar Energy has announced suspension of production of LNG and related products due to Iran’s air strikes. Qatar is the world’s third largest LNG exporter after the US and Australia. Its LNG production capacity is 77 mln tons per annum. The country has also announced plans to expand its LNG plants to 142 mln tons.

The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.

As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.

SOURCE: TASS   https://ina.iq/en/economy/46018-gas-price-in-europe-surpasses-700-as-iran-blocks-strait-of-hormuz.html

Asian Stocks Extend Declines As Middle East Tensions Remain High

Today, 09:04   BAGHDAD-INA   Asian stocks fell for a second day, as an escalation in the Middle East conflict fueled investor concern about surging oil prices and inflationary pressures.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2%, extending Monday's 1.7% loss in the wake of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and its subsequent retaliation on neighbors. South Korea led equity market losses Tuesday, reopening following a holiday, with the Kospi sliding as much as 4.1%.

“The broader big picture is that the investment question is not primarily about Iran itself — it is whether the conflict leads to a larger value-at-risk episode driven by correlation into other markets,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.   Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
• S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% as of 11:22 a.m. Tokyo time
• Japan's Topix fell 2.2%
• Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3%
• The Shanghai Composite fell 1%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.7%

Currencies
• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
• The euro was little changed at $1.1689
• The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.34 per dollar
• The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 6.8842 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
• Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $68,317.88
• Ether fell 2% to $2,002.23

SOURCE: NDTV    https://ina.iq/en/economy/46006-asian-stocks-extend-declines-as-middle-east-tensions-remain-high.html

Crude, Natural Gas Prices Jump On Iranian News

Today, 12:57   Oil prices rose higher on Monday March 2, though not as much as expected, and stocks took that a relief sign and cut early losses toward the end of trading.

The conflict over and around Iran and the Persian Gulf was still raging, with no end in sight. Iran seemed not to be interested in talking about terms, probably because it wasn’t clear who would be the leader of the Iranian government.

Israel’s Saturday attack on the headquarters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, killed him and other top officials.

Prices of Brent crude, the global benchmark crude, and light sweet crude, the benchmark U.S. crude jumped when futures trading opened. Brent topped out at $82.37 a barrel but closed March 2 at $77.74 per barrel, up 6.7% on the day. Brent is still up nearly 28% on the year.

Light sweet crude finished at $71.23, up 6.3% on the day and up 17% year-to-date.

AAA’s daily gas survey put regular gas nationally at $2.997 on Monday, up more than a penny from Sunday and up about 5.6% this year.

The stock market fell like a rock at the open after futures plunged starting late on Sunday March 1. Prices moved steadily higher for much of the session and were actually ahead on the day.

But The Gains Dissipated After 3:30 P.M.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was 3 points to 6,882. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 73 points to 48,905. But the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 81 points to 22,749.

The Strait Of Hormuz Is The Key

The oil price decline and stock recovery were predicated on hopes for a short bout of violence, followed by real talks and maybe a deal.

But all eyes watching the situation were focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the 22-mile wide body of water through which oil and natural gas tankers must pass to get to global markets. Iranian territory is the north side of the strait, and Iranian naval vessels have fired on at least four ships.

Global tracking images show big fleets of ships parked outside the strait in the Persian Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman. Reports suggested insurance companies were refusing to cover losses if tankers tried to pass through.

Qatar had shut down liquid natural gas production on Monday. The Persian Gulf nation is the world’s largest liquid natural-gas producer.

Several Issues Are Still Search For Solutions:

Who will take control of the Iranian government and be able to negotiate?

Do the Persian Gulf nations have enough ammunition to fend off Iranian drone and missile attacks?

Will the conflict last more than a month? The longer the shooting continues, energy supplies will tighten, and prices will rise.   https://ina.iq/en/economy/46019-crude-natural-gas-prices-jump-on-iranian-news.html

Saudi Arabia's Aramco Ras Tanura Refinery Hit By Drone Strike, Shuts Down; Brent Crude Rises 9%

INA-SOURCES   Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the state oil giant, shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery on Monday following drone strikes in the facility, Reuters and Bloomberg report.

The reports of the closure sent Brent crude oil prices skyrocketing by 9.32%.

According to the Reuters report quoting an official, the Ras Tanura refinery of Aramco was shut as a precautionary measure. The situation was under control, the official said.

SOURCE: MINT https://ina.iq/en/economy/45928-saudi-arabias-aramco-ras-tanura-refinery-hit-by-drone-strike-shuts-down-brent-crude-rises-9.html  

LNG Tanker Dayrates Double To $200K In Less Than A Day - Bloomberg

Today, 09:08    INA-SOURCES   Shippers are demanding more than $200K/day for liquefied natural gas tankers in the Atlantic Basin, roughly double the amount obtained less than a day earlier, Bloomberg reported late Monday.

Those offer levels were at least triple the previous assessed price for an LNG tanker by shipping firm Spark Commodities, which came in at $61.5K/day earlier Monday - which was itself up ⁠43% from from the previous day.

The surge in vessel rates has followed Qatar's shutdown of LNG production as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began to spill across the Middle East region.

Transacted shipping rates - actual deals to lease vessels - are not likely to soar unless production cuts are prolonged in places such as Qatar and the U.A.E., Precision LNG Consulting's Richard Pratt told Bloomberg.

https://ina.iq/en/economy/46007-lng-tanker-dayrates-double-to-200k-in-less-than-a-day-bloomberg.html

Oil Prices Surge 13% In First Trades After Start Of US-Iran Conflict

Yesterday, 10:04   INA-SOURCES   Oil prices jumped as much as 13 per cent as trading resumed amid a widening aerial conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the combined forces of the United States and Israel.

Brent crude, a key global benchmark for oil prices, surged as high as US$82.37 per barrel in early trade, the highest since January 2025. It pulled back a tad to trade at US$79.86 – still 9.5 per cent higher than the close on Feb 27 and up about 30 per cent since the start of 2026.

The US oil benchmark – West Texas Intermediate crude – rose 6.95 per cent to US$71.68 after touching US$75.33 earlier, the highest since June 2025.

Rallying crude prices represent the market’s concern about supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean that handles a fifth of the world’s oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Some 15 million barrels of crude oil and 290 million cubic m of LNG pass through the strait each day from the Middle East to mainly Asia and Europe.

Analysts said tanker traffic through the strait has largely halted, with a self-imposed pause since the conflict began on Feb 28 as insurers warned shipowners that they would cancel policies and raise coverage prices for the region.

It comes as Iran retaliates against US-Israeli air strikes with missile and drone attacks on Israel and Arab states across the Middle East that host American military facilities.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre has reported at least four incidents of vessels coming under attack from “unknown projectiles” since March 1 around Hormuz Strait.

While the Iranian authorities have said they do not intend to shut the waterway, ships in the area have reported hearing radio broadcasts stating that transit through Hormuz was banned.

Mr Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citibank, said Brent is likely to trade in the US$80 to US$90 per barrel range over at least the coming week while the conflict is ongoing.

But in the case of a prolonged conflict, prices can surge to as high as US$120 a barrel, he added.

“Iran has not officially shut the Strait of Hormuz, but risk aversion from shippers is a real phenomenon. Transit volumes have already declined, with vessels parking outside the strait,” he said.

While constrained so far, attacks on the Omani tanker Skylight and on the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) Abu Al Bukhoosh offshore platform highlight the risks towards oil asset targeting as well, Mr Layton said.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ – the oil exporters’ cartel that includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia – decided on March 1 to increase its crude oil production target by 206,000 barrels per day for April.

While the hike is 1½ times bigger than the 137,000-barrel increments made by the group in December, analysts said it is unlikely to calm markets in the immediate term.

Mr Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at research firm Rystad Energy, said markets are more concerned about whether barrels can move through Hormuz than with spare capacity on paper.

“If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets,” he said.

For Singapore, more expensive crude will result in higher prices of petrol for car owners.

Higher LNG prices will have an even wider impact, as the Republic produces the bulk of its electricity from natural gas.

While gas is pumped into Singapore mainly through pipelines from neighbouring countries, LNG has seen an increasing share in the mix, especially after the Republic made a long-term supply deal with Qatar – the Gulf state ranked as the world’s top LNG exporter.

Rystad estimates that based on 2025 trade flows, a complete closure of Hormuz and a breakdown of shipping in adjacent waters would see 97.7 million tonnes, or 363.8 million cubic m, per day of LNG from Qatar, the UAE and Oman removed from global markets.

This corresponds to 22 per cent of global LNG supply.

Mr Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said energy prices will remain volatile even if alternative supplies offer some cushion.

“Speculative positioning in oil has been building for weeks amid expectations that conflict in Iran would eventually flare. When a crowded trade gets the headline it was waiting for, the first move is higher.

“The second move can be profit-taking. But in these nervy war-torn conditions, oil markets rarely travel in straight lines,” he said.

SOURCE: kathmandupost   https://ina.iq/en/economy/45925-oil-prices-surge-13-in-first-trades-after-start-of-us-iran-conflict-httpskathmandupostcomworld20260302oil-prices-surge-13-in-first-trades-after-start-of-us-iran-conflict.html

MilitiaMan and Crew: IQD News Update-Market Economy-State Power-Self Sufficient-REER

MilitiaMan and Crew: IQD News Update-Market Economy-State Power-Self Sufficient-REER

3-2-2026

The Crew:  Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man

Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn

Be sure to listen to full video for all the news……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olGyJmUNRtM

Is AI the Setup for the Greatest Wealth Transfer?

Is AI the Setup for the Greatest Wealth Transfer?

Taylor Kenny:  3-1-2026

As we navigate the complexities of the modern world, a growing concern is emerging about the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on our society, economy, and individual autonomy. A recent thought-provoking discussion among experts has shed light on a potentially dystopian future, where AI replaces a staggering 95% of current jobs, paving the way for a systemic shift from ownership to subscription-based access for virtually every commodity and service.

This radical transformation is not just about the way we live and work; it’s also intricately linked to a broader agenda that includes Universal Basic Income (UBI) and centralized control via digital currencies.

The implications are far-reaching, with the potential to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of a few behemoth corporations and financial entities, such as BlackRock.

To understand the magnitude of this shift, it’s essential to draw parallels with historical events. The Great Depression’s property tax hikes and the Roman “bread and circus” distractions serve as cautionary tales about how systemic control can be maintained through economic manipulation and social distractions.

The speakers in the discussion highlighted these examples to illustrate how governments and corporations might employ similar tactics to maintain control in an AI-driven world.

In this envisioned future, AI is not just a technological disruptor in the labor market; it’s a tool that can be exploited to control narratives, depress asset prices, and buy up assets cheaply before reinflating them under a new economic order supported by UBI.

The rise of AI-driven fake social media personas and the phenomenon of AI hiring humans to perform tasks it cannot complete itself are just a few examples of the increasing blurring of lines between human and machine activity.

Furthermore, concerns about bio-warfare facilitated by AI are emerging as part of the rapid AI arms race between global powers. The potential consequences are dire, and it’s crucial that we acknowledge the risks associated with this technological advancement.

Despite the bleak outlook, there is a glimmer of hope. The experts emphasize the importance of owning tangible assets like gold and silver as a form of financial security and resistance against total systemic control. In a world where subscription-based access becomes the norm, possessing physical assets can provide a safeguard against the whims of corporations and governments.

As we stand at the precipice of this AI-driven revolution, it’s essential that we take proactive steps to prepare for the changes that are fast approaching. Education and awareness are key to understanding the implications of this technological shift. By recognizing the potential risks and opportunities, we can make informed decisions about our financial security and individual autonomy.

Fear can be a motivator for sound decision-making, and it’s crucial that we don’t ignore the warning signs. By taking control of our financial futures and staying informed about the developments in the AI landscape, we can navigate the complexities of this emerging world.

For further insights and information, we recommend watching the full video from ITM Trading, where the experts delve deeper into the implications of an AI-driven future. By staying informed and taking proactive steps, we can ensure that we’re prepared for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

In conclusion, the AI-driven future is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that requires careful consideration and proactive action. By understanding the potential risks and opportunities, we can navigate this emerging world with confidence and ensure that our individual autonomy and financial security are preserved.

https://youtu.be/8jlhU_1h0_8

Coin Shops Say They're Swimming In So Much Silver And Gold That They're Having To Limit Purchases

Coin Shops Say They're Swimming In So Much Silver And Gold That They're Having To Limit Purchases

Dominick Reuter   Business Insider   Updated Sun, February 8, 2026

• Spot prices for silver and gold are stabilizing after a rocky stretch of record gains and losses.

• The market volatility has caused headaches for local coin shops that typically buy precious metals.

• "If you do this wrong, you run out of capital really fast," one shop told Business Insider.

If January was a party in the precious metals market, February is the hangover.

The per-ounce price of gold topped $5,300 and silver reached nearly $120 at the end of January before tumbling sharply. The stretch of record gains and losses has since stabilized in the early days of February.

"These price moves have done a lot of damage all across the line," HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel told Business Insider.

One type of business bearing the brunt of volatility is local coin shops, where people often trade in gold and silver. High prices have led to a huge influx of people selling, but some shops tell Business Insider they're running out of their usual places to offload excess metals.

As the market was in its tailspin, Tim Heuer said the shop he manages, University Coin & Jewelry in Madison, Wisconsin, was still doing deals.

Heuer said a customer came in to sell some silver when the spot price was $98 an ounce and falling: "By the time I wrote his check, silver was already down $3.50 from the time he walked in the door."

The recent volatility is putting those businesses in an uncomfortable position, beyond quickly changing spot prices that erode profit margins.

Local coin shops play an essential role in the circulation of physical gold and silver by providing a reliable way for individuals to sell their bars, coins, or scrap metal.

If someone bought a gold bar last year from Costco and wants to turn it back into cash, a local coin shop is one of the first places they might go.

And while these shops do turn around and sell some of what they buy, most of the metal is sold to refineries to be melted and minted into new bars or coins.

Precious metals refineries are experiencing major backlogs

That flow has been interrupted in recent months as the run in gold and silver prices has encouraged more people to trade in their metals, leading to a backlog of raw materials at refineries.

Jarret Niesse, president of Precious Metal Refining Services in Chicago, said his company stopped buying scrap silver back in October, when the price crossed $50 per ounce, sparking a frenzy of people trading in old silverware, platters, and other tchotchkes that had been gathering dust.

And the market has only gotten wilder since then.

"This entire crazy silver move that has happened, we have been sitting on the sidelines," he said.

Refineries like Niesse's are one step in the process. Much of the product they melt down gets further refined by other mints and exported to Asian markets, where demand for bars and coins is higher. With so much gold and silver to process, those refineries have also stopped buying, thereby cutting into the cash flow of local coin shops.

To Continue an d Read More:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coin-shops-theyre-swimming-much-105201247.html

“Tidbits From TNT” Monday 3-2-2026

TNT:

Tishwash: Reuters: Three drones shot down over Erbil airport in northern Iraq

Security sources told Reuters on Monday that three armed drones were shot down over Erbil airport in northern Iraq, where US forces are stationed.

Explosions were heard Monday morning near Erbil International Airport in Iraq's Kurdistan region, where forces from the US-led international coalition are stationed, according to an AFP correspondent.

Early this morning, an AFP photographer reported that air defenses shot down at least two drones near the airport, which houses a coalition forces base.

Since the start of the American-Israeli attack on Iran, Erbil, where a huge complex of the American consulate is also located, has been subjected to attacks by drones that are shot down by air defenses.  link

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Tishwash:  The Iraqi parliament postpones its session until further notice.

The Iraqi parliament decided on Sunday to postpone its scheduled session until further notice.

The council's media department stated in a brief statement received by Al-Sa'a Network that "the council decided to postpone its session scheduled for today until further notice  link

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Tishwash: Statement from the US Embassy in Baghdad regarding the demonstrations near the Green Zone

 The US Embassy in Baghdad issued a security alert on Sunday (March 1, 2026) regarding demonstrations taking place in areas near the Green Zone in the Iraqi capital.

The embassy said in a statement received by "Baghdad Today" that "the US mission in Iraq advises American citizens to exercise extreme caution, limit their movements, and remain in their places of residence when necessary, given the continued reports of missiles, drones, or projectiles being detected in Iraqi airspace, and to monitor active threats to US interests, including restaurants, businesses, and individuals."

The statement noted that "the southern bank of the July 14 Bridge in Baghdad is witnessing anti-American demonstrations, along with calls for demonstrations in various parts of the country, warning of the possibility of the gatherings turning into acts of violence, in light of a security situation that the embassy described as 'complex and rapidly changing'."

As a precautionary measure, the US mission directed its staff who are able to work from home to do so until further notice, and consular operations, including routine services for US citizens, were temporarily suspended.

She emphasized that "the Level 4 travel warning for Iraq (Do Not Travel) remains in effect, urging American citizens not to travel to Iraq for any reason, and to review their personal security plans if they are already in the country, and not to rely on the U.S. government for departure or evacuation operations."

The statement noted that "Iraqi airspace is currently closed, with the possibility of it being reopened or closed again at short notice," and called on "travelers to contact airlines for the latest information."

The embassy clarified that "work at its headquarters in Baghdad and the US Consulate General in Erbil continues on a limited basis and is restricted to essential operations only."

The embassy, ​​according to the statement, urged “American citizens to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive security updates, prepare contingency plans, ensure adequate basic necessities, keep their communication devices charged, avoid large gatherings and areas frequented by foreigners, and follow local media to stay informed of developments.”

link

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Tishwash:  Gasoline and dollar queues are the first signs... Is Iraq entering a tunnel of economic turmoil?

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, has quickly cast a shadow over the overall situation in Iraq, particularly the economic aspect.

Concerns related to energy markets and supply chains have resurfaced, with growing anxiety about the impact of any escalation of the conflict on oil exports, shipping routes, and the stability of the domestic market in a country almost entirely dependent on imports.

The exchange rate of the dollar has also seen a significant increase in Baghdad's Al-Kifah Street market, exceeding 160,000 dinars per 100 dollars, alongside a sharp rise in the prices of both foreign and Iraqi gold in the markets of Baghdad and Erbil. In a tangible indication of the "shock" spreading domestically, Iraqi cities witnessed signs of a fuel crisis.

For example, the city of Fallujah in Anbar province saw long queues at gas stations, revealing the public's sensitivity to any development that might be perceived as a direct threat to supply chains or transportation between provinces.

The government, for its part, attempted to offer reassurances to alleviate the confusion. The Ministry of Trade affirmed that the food situation in Iraq is "stable and under control," and that there are no indications of concern regarding the availability of food in the markets following the Israeli-American attack on Iran.

Ministry of Trade spokesman Mohammed Hanoun stated that "the government has given great attention to the food security file in anticipation of emergency circumstances, and has worked during the past period to strengthen the strategic reserves of basic commodities, especially wheat, in addition to ration card items such as rice, sugar, and oil." He emphasized that "the stock is good and sufficient to meet citizens' needs within a plan aimed at ensuring continued supply and market stability, with daily monitoring of market activity to prevent exploitation and price hikes."

Economically, "energy sensitivity" appears to be the most prominent issue. Iraq may theoretically benefit from higher oil prices, but at the same time, it faces the risks of disruptions to export routes, shipping, and insurance, along with the accompanying pressure on internal stability and prices, especially if the war escalates to a stage where economic infrastructure or maritime routes are targeted.

What about the Strait of Hormuz?

Economist Safwan Qusay warns Al-Mada that "expanding the scope of the war in the Middle East to include economic targets and closing the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a rise in global oil prices, forcing Baghdad to confront the challenge of managing risks, not merely monitoring figures."

Qusay believes that "Iraq needs options to mitigate the potential shock, including reaching an understanding with Saudi Arabia on arrangements to secure supplies in case some routes are disrupted, or relying on the reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq to ensure the financing of public spending for a period that may exceed six months if the crisis enters a phase of severe pressure."

Qusay goes further, discussing logistical alternatives, such as "expanding export routes towards Turkey by utilizing the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and its capacity, with the possibility of boosting exports by truck to Jordan, Kuwait, or Turkey, depending on developments in the security and trade situation."

Warnings of a more dangerous scenario .

In this context, political analyst Mohammed Naanaa told Al-Mada that "Iraq must prepare for the repercussions and consequences of a war with Iran, especially if the war escalates or the Iranian regime loses control of the internal situation." He warned that the most dangerous scenario is the possibility of the war leading to widespread internal disintegration, which could open the door to large waves of displacement towards the Iraqi border.

Naanaa stressed the necessity of "taking all necessary precautions to confront potential challenges and threats, including administrative and security preparedness and the management of resources and services in the provinces near the front lines."

According to field observations, Iraqi markets remain in a phase of "anticipation and questioning" rather than an actual crisis. However, observers note that this phase could change rapidly if the war continues and expands, especially given the sensitivity of consumer sentiment towards fuel and basic commodities, and the potential for rumors to ignite excessive buying that would disrupt the market even if stocks are stable.  link

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Mot: Procrastination

A Structural Shift in the Global Financial System that Nobody is Seeing

A Structural Shift in the Global Financial System that Nobody is Seeing

Miles Harris:  3-1-2026

The global financial system is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the inherent dynamics of its debt-based monetary structure.

In a recent video presentation, “The Structural Foundations of the New Financial System,” Miles Harris introduces a new series that delves into the intricacies of this evolution.

 The presentation provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamental pillars of the financial system, its historical context, and the challenges it faces in the modern era.

At the heart of the financial system lies a complex interplay between credit creation, collateral base, and settlement infrastructure. The speaker emphasizes that the system’s stability is threatened when credit creation outpaces the growth of underlying assets and collateral, leading to increased fragility.

As debt levels rise, the ability to settle transactions weakens, making the system more vulnerable to shocks. This is particularly concerning when credit expansion surpasses the growth of real assets and liquidity becomes concentrated in too few institutions.

To understand the current state of the financial system, it’s essential to examine its historical context.

The gold standard era provides valuable insights into how collateral definitions and settlement speed influenced financial stability and scalability.

The transition from asset-backed collateral (gold) to debt-based collateral (government debt) post-1971 marked a significant shift, enabling massive credit expansion but also creating paradoxes. The system now relies on debt to create collateral to back further debt, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability.

The expansion of shadow credit and offshore dollar markets has further complicated the financial landscape, increasing liquidity outside traditional banking systems.

While this has provided new avenues for credit creation, it has also reduced visibility and stability. The emergence of new technologies, such as programmable currencies and stablecoins, may increase transparency and settlement efficiency but also raises concerns about control and surveillance.

As the financial system continues to evolve, several key questions arise: Is debt growing faster than real resources? Is money too concentrated? Are financial promises becoming overly complex and opaque?

The presentation highlights the need for evolving settlement infrastructure, expanding or enhancing collateral, and upgrading liquidity mechanisms to address these challenges.

The ongoing transformation of the global financial system will have far-reaching implications in the coming years and decades.

It’s crucial to grasp the fundamental knowledge underlying this evolution to navigate the changing landscape. By understanding the structural foundations of the new financial system, we can better appreciate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

For those interested in gaining a deeper understanding of the evolving financial architecture, we recommend watching the full video presentation by Miles Harris.

The series promises to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics driving the transformation of the global financial system.

As the financial system continues to evolve, it’s essential to stay informed about the latest developments and trends. By doing so, we can gain a better understanding of the complex interplay between credit creation, collateral, and settlement infrastructure, and how they shape the future of finance.

https://youtu.be/3hoBg9-tXK8

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Sunday Afternoon 3-1-26

Japanese Shipping Companies Halt Their Vessels' Passage Through The Strait Of Hormuz

Money and Business   Economy News - Follow-up  Japanese shipping companies have halted operations in the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran.

A spokesman for Nippon Yusen said the company had instructed its ships to stop transiting the area on Saturday.

A spokesman for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said, "We are refraining from sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. Our vessels have been instructed to remain in safe waters," adding that the safety of the crew, cargo, and vessels is "the top priority," according to Reuters.

A spokesman for Kawasaki Kisen said that a number of its vessels currently in the Gulf are on standby, adding that unlike other routes, there are no options for diverting shipments.

The spokesman said, "We will not attempt to send ships through the strait or send additional ships to the area until the situation stabilizes."

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's busiest oil chokepoints. Approximately 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait, along with significant quantities of liquefied natural gas. https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=66194

USD/IQD Exchange Rates Increase In Baghdad And Erbil

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   The US dollar opened Sunday’s trading higher in Iraq, hovering around 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars.

According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars, up from Saturday’s156,000 dinars.

In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 157,500 dinars and bought it at 156,500 dinars.

In Erbil, selling prices stood at 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars, while buying prices reached 156,500 dinars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-exchange-rates-increase-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil

Gold Prices Surge In Baghdad And Erbil Markets

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   On Sunday, gold prices jumped sharply in Baghdad and Erbil markets, rising well above 1.155 million IQD per mithqal, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.

Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1.157 million IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1.153 million IQD, compared with 1.150 million IQD on Saturday.

The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 1.127 million IQD, while the buying price reached 1.123 million IQD.

In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1.160 million and 1.170 million IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 1.130 million and 1.140 million IQD.

In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1.230 million IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1.175 million IQD, and 18-carat gold at 1.007 million IQD.   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-surge-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets-4

EIA: Iraq’s Oil Exports To US Dip Over The Week

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Washington  Iraq’s crude oil exports to the United States dropped 211,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Sunday.

According to the data, Iraqi shipments averaged 160,000 bpd last week, 56.7% less than the previous week’s average of 371,000 bpd.

Total US crude imports from ten major suppliers fell to 6.101 million bpd, down 101,000 bpd from 6 million bpd the previous week.

Canada remained the top supplier at 4.050 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia with 444,000 bpd, Mexico with 414,000 bpd, and Venezuela with 339,000 bpd.

Imports also included Columbia at 240,000 bpd, Nigeria at 163,000 bpd, Libya at 139,000 bpd, Brazil at 115,000 bpd and Ecuador at 36,000 bpd.   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/EIA-Iraq-s-oil-exports-to-US-dip-over-the-week-4    

Bitcoin Recovers After Sharp Declines, Nearing $68,000

Money and Business  Economy News - Follow-up  The price of Bitcoin rose by more than 2%, significantly reducing the losses it suffered yesterday following the US-Israeli military strikes on Iran.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded positive net investments of $782 million last week, for the first time in six weeks.

Cryptocurrencies linked to gold, such as XAUt and PAXG, also rose to historic highs, exceeding $5,500, as investors sought to hedge against the closure of global markets during the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

On Saturday, countries in the region, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, were subjected to Iranian missile attacks, following the Israeli-American attack on Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=66204

Iraq Weighs Risks As Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Flows

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq joined an emergency meeting of the OPEC+ alliance on Sunday as escalating military tensions in the Gulf disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy markets that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption.

The meeting comes amid growing fears that the confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel could trigger wider disruptions to oil supplies, forcing producers to consider raising output to stabilize global markets.

Iraq is participating in the urgent consultations as one of the eight key OPEC+ members responsible for production adjustments, alongside Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

Delegates are expected to examine a potential production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) or more, significantly above earlier projections of around 137,000 bpd, according to industry reports.

Oil prices have already climbed to around $73 per barrel, their highest level since July, driven by concerns that the conflict could expand across the Middle East and further disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway handles more than 20% of global oil trade, making it one of the most strategically important chokepoints in the world energy system.

Analysts note that the bulk of the spare capacity capable of significantly increasing supply remains concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, potentially limiting the broader impact of production increases by other producers.

OPEC+ had previously raised production quotas by approximately 2.9 million bpd between April and December 2025, before pausing the increases early in 2026 due to weaker seasonal demand.

For Iraq, higher oil prices could translate into increased revenue if exports remain uninterrupted. However, the country remains highly vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes.

The government is closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz as several international shipping companies suspend operations in the area, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions. Iraq is among the region’s major crude exporters to Asian markets, which import roughly two-thirds of their oil from the Gulf region. Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90% of its oil imports, while roughly half of China’s crude imports originate from the region.

In response to rising risks, several Asian governments and energy firms have begun reassessing supply options and strategic reserves.

Japanese shipping companies have suspended operations near the strait, while India -the world’s second-largest oil importer- said its state-run refineries are evaluating alternative sources of crude, noting that existing reserves could cover roughly 20 days of demand.

South Korea has also convened emergency consultations and indicated it could release oil from strategic reserves if supply disruptions persist, adding that current stockpiles could support domestic demand for several months.

In Baghdad, the Iraqi Oil Ministry convened an emergency meeting today chaired by Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani, bringing together senior officials responsible for export operations to evaluate contingency plans.

A government source told Shafaq News that the meeting focused on ensuring the continuity of Iraqi oil exports to global markets amid the escalating regional conflict.

The discussions were prompted by Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed to commercial shipping following the intensifying military confrontation. Officials reviewed mechanisms to maintain export flows and mitigate potential disruptions should the conflict persist for an extended period.

According to maritime tracking data, more than 150 oil and gas tankers are currently waiting in Gulf waters outside the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate. Commercial vessels on both sides of the strait have largely halted movement, with the exception of Iranian and Chinese naval ships operating in the area.

European maritime security mission Aspides reported that vessels in the region had received radio messages warning that navigation through the strait was no longer permitted.

In parallel, several major oil trading firms and shipping companies have suspended shipments through the corridor amid ongoing military strikes and rising insurance risks.

Insurance providers covering war risks have also warned shipowners that policies for vessels transiting the strait may be cancelled or sharply repriced.

According to the Financial Times, insurance premiums could rise by as much as 50%. Dylan Mortimer, head of war-risk hull insurance at brokerage Marsh, said premiums that previously stood at roughly 0.25% of a vessel’s value could climb significantly.

For a tanker valued at $100 million, insurance costs for a single voyage could increase from around $250,000 to $375,000.

Risk consultancy EOS Risk Group also reported that several ships had received warning messages from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stating the waterway was closed, prompting at least three vessels to abandon plans to transit the strait.

The disruption intensified after Iranian state television reported that an oil tanker attempting to pass through the strait without complying with Iranian warnings had been targeted. According to the broadcaster, the tanker was struck and later reported to be sinking, though independent confirmation has not yet emerged.

Earlier, Iranian military officials announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned vessels that the route was unsafe amid ongoing military exchanges with the United States and Israel.

Economists warn that a prolonged closure of the strait could deal a severe blow to Iraq’s economy. Iraqi economic expert Nabil Al-Mirsoumi told Shafaq News that roughly 94% of Iraq’s oil exports pass through southern Gulf terminals, meaning any sustained disruption could sharply reduce national revenues.

He estimated that monthly oil income -currently around $7 billion- could drop to less than $1 billion if exports through the Gulf were halted.

Alternative export routes remain limited. Iraq can currently ship only about 210,000 barrels per day via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, in addition to small volumes transported by truck to Jordan.

Such levels would fall far short of covering government spending obligations, including salaries for the country’s vast public sector.

A prolonged export halt could also force Iraq to cut production dramatically, potentially to around one million bpd, which could damage reservoir pressure and reduce long-term production capacity.

The economic impact could extend beyond the oil sector. Lower crude production would reduce associated gas output used to fuel power plants, potentially worsening electricity shortages across the country.

Read more: Iraq braces for financial meltdown amid Hormuz closing threats

“Tidbits From TNT” Sunday 3-1-2026

TNT:

Tishwash: Iraq’s parliament to hold emergency Sunday session on regional security

 Iraq’s Council of Representatives announced it will hold an evening session Sunday to discuss recent security developments in Iraq and the region, as the country faces escalating tensions following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The session is scheduled for 9 p.m. and will include discussion of “recent security challenges in Iraq and the region,” along with a vote on members of permanent parliamentary committees. link

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Tishwash: Attempts to storm the US embassy in Baghdad and violent clashes in front of the Green Zone

The Iraqi capital, Baghdad, witnessed a dangerous escalation on the ground today, Sunday, March 1, 2026, following the influx of crowds of demonstrators towards the fortified Green Zone, where violent clashes broke out with the security forces tasked with protecting the diplomatic and sovereign headquarters.

Field reports indicate that hundreds of protesters attempted to storm the US embassy compound in Baghdad, expressing their anger over the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. Security forces are working to prevent the demonstrators from breaching the concrete barriers and reaching the embassy grounds, amidst an unprecedented atmosphere of security tension.

These disturbances in Baghdad coincide with a series of rapidly unfolding events that have swept through the region in recent hours, most notably:

Erbil Airport Targeted: The "Saraya Awliya al-Dam" group claimed responsibility for a suicide drone attack targeting US military bases at Erbil International Airport, in retaliation for what it described as attacks on sovereignty.

Leadership Vacuum in Iran: Tehran officially announced the martyrdom of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of military commanders and advisors in the "Epic Wrath" attack, and initiated procedures for the transfer of power under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution.

Popular and Diplomatic Reactions: The "banner of revenge" was raised above the dome of the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, and demonstrations took place in Nasiriyah, while US President Donald Trump stated that reaching a diplomatic solution was now "easier."

A state of high alert prevails among the Iraqi armed forces and diplomatic missions, awaiting developments in the coming hours amidst calls for de-escalation and others for further escalation on the ground.  link

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Tishwash:  Barak told the Sudanese about Trump's plan: mid-next week, followed by sanctions.

 A source within Al Jazeera's coordination framework revealed on Friday an American warning related to Iraqi political entitlements. The source stated that US envoy Tom Barrack informed the Iraqi Prime Minister that Washington might impose sanctions if Nouri al-Maliki is nominated for a high-ranking political position.

The source indicated that the potential US sanctions on Iraq may be announced in the middle of next week, and will initially target figures loyal to Iran, before later including leaders in the coordination framework.

US President's envoy Tom Barrack made his second visit to Iraq in less than a week. During his first visit, he met with four political leaders, none of whom included Nouri al-Maliki, the prime ministerial candidate nominated by the Coordination Framework.

 In today's visit, Barrack met with al-Maliki, in addition to two separate meetings with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan. Al-Maliki's office did not mention any sanctions or rejection of al-Maliki's nomination in the statement it distributed to the media after the meeting with Barrack.

Al-Sudani's statement was limited to mentioning a review of views on solving the region's problems and Iraq's pivotal role in building stability and promoting regional development.  link

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Tishwash: Trump praises Barack's role: He's doing a good job in Iraq

 On Friday, US President Donald Trump praised the performance of his special envoy, Tom Barrack, in Iraq, coinciding with a series of meetings the US envoy held with a number of officials in the capital, Baghdad, during his second visit in a week.

Trump stated in remarks reported by the media that "Tom Barrack is doing a good job in Iraq."

This praise came after Tom Barrack met on Friday with the outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, to discuss bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States, the general situation and developments in the region, and the importance of sparing Iraq from their repercussions, according to a statement from al-Sudani's office.

This meeting came after the US envoy met with Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition and the coordinating framework's candidate for the Iraqi premiership.

A statement from al-Maliki’s office said that during the meeting with Tom Barrack, he stressed the importance of “supporting the democratic process and strengthening political stability, emphasizing the need to respect Iraq’s sovereignty and the choices of its people, while the continuation of communication and coordination between the two sides on files of common interest was emphasized.”

The head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Judge Faiq Zaidan, also discussed with US Special Envoy Tom Barrack on Friday the role of the judiciary in supporting efforts to complete the remaining constitutional requirements during the next phase.

This is the second meeting of its kind in a week, amid a major escalation in the region, especially the American threats to strike Iran.

Last Sunday, Barak met in Baghdad with caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, before moving to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, where he met with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, and Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani. link

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Mot: Kids Say The Funniest Things — Straight From the Classroom:

TEACHER: Why are you late?

STUDENT: Class started before I got here.

TEACHER: John, why are you doing math on the floor?

JOHN: You told me to do it without using tables!

TEACHER: Glenn, how do you spell ‘crocodile’?

GLENN: K-R-O-K-O-D-I-A-L.

TEACHER: That’s wrong.

GLENN: Maybe, but you asked how I spell it.

(This kid’s got a future in politics.)

TEACHER: Donald, what’s the chemical formula for water?

DONALD: H I J K L M N O.

TEACHER: What?

DONALD: Yesterday you said it’s H to O!

TEACHER: Winnie, name one important thing we have today that we didn’t have 10 years ago.

WINNIE: Me!

TEACHER: Glen, why do you always come to school so dirty?

GLEN: I’m closer to the ground than you are.

TEACHER: Millie, make a sentence starting with ‘I’.

MILLIE: I is...

TEACHER: No, Millie — always say ‘I am’.

MILLIE: Okay. I am the ninth letter of the alphabet!

TEACHER: Why didn’t George Washington’s dad punish him for cutting down the cherry tree?

LOUIS: Because George still had the axe in his hand.

TEACHER: Do you say prayers before eating?

SIMON: Nope, my mom’s a great cook.

TEACHER: Clyde, your essay on ‘My Dog’ is identical to your brother’s! Did you copy?

CLYDE: Nope, same dog.

TEACHER: Harold, what do you call a person who talks when no one’s interested?

HAROLD: A teacher.

And finally, a sign of the times:

Due to current economic conditions, the light at the end of the tunnel has been switched off until further notice.

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Sunday Morning 3-1-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

Beijing’s Red Line: Can China Defend Iran Without Going to War With America?

China backs Tehran with missiles, cyber shields, and diplomacy — but stops short of direct confrontation.

 Overview (Key Points)

• China condemns U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran
• Beijing accelerates indirect military and cyber support to Tehran
• Arms deals expand — including supersonic anti-ship missiles
• Energy security and Belt & Road investments at risk
• Global power alignment enters a dangerous new phase

Following large-scale U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Beijing has drawn a strategic line: support Iran — but avoid direct war with Washington.

Rather than military intervention, China is moving through arms transfers, cyber integration, UN diplomacy, and energy contingency planning.

This is a geopolitical chess move — not a battlefield deployment.

Key Developments

1. Missile & Air Defense Acceleration

Beijing is reportedly fast-tracking arms cooperation with Tehran, including:

• CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles
• MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems)
• Ballistic missile components
• Loitering munitions (kamikaze drones)
• Air defense and anti-ballistic systems

The CM-302 is designed to penetrate advanced naval defenses — posing risk to U.S. carrier groups operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

China is helping Iran rebuild missile capabilities degraded in previous conflicts.

2. Cyber & Digital Sovereignty Strategy

Beyond weapons, China is fortifying Iran’s digital defenses.

Under provisions tied to China’s 2026–2030 planning cycle, Beijing is:

• Replacing Western software in Iran with closed Chinese systems
• Enhancing AI-driven cybersecurity tools
• Providing cyber defense architecture resistant to CIA/Mossad penetration

This aligns with broader strategic cooperation agreements between China and Iran, aimed at expanding Iran’s “digital sovereignty.”

Technology is now as critical as missiles.

3. UN Veto Power & Diplomatic Shielding

China strongly condemned U.S. and Israeli military actions, calling them violations of sovereignty and the UN Charter.

At the United Nations Security Council, Beijing has historically:

• Opposed additional sanctions on Iran
• Blocked authorization for military escalation
• Called for dialogue over regime change

Diplomatic shielding is Beijing’s first line of defense.

4. Energy & Belt and Road Exposure

China’s stake in Iran is massive:

• Heavy reliance on discounted Iranian oil
• Billions invested under a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement
• Infrastructure, telecom, and port projects
• Iran as a critical corridor in the Belt and Road Initiative

A prolonged war threatens:

• Oil supply stability
• Shipping lanes in the Gulf
• Energy price spikes
• Capital losses in infrastructure

Beijing is balancing support with self-preservation.

Why It Matters

This moment tests China’s superpower posture.

If Beijing:

• Intervenes directly → risk of U.S.–China confrontation
• Does nothing → credibility with allies weakens

Instead, China is choosing asymmetric reinforcement:

Missiles. Cyber. Diplomacy. Energy hedging.

It is defending Iran without firing a shot at America.

“Support Without Soldiers: Beijing’s Strategic Balancing Act.”

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

Escalation in the Gulf impacts:

• Oil pricing benchmarks
• Dollar liquidity via the petrodollar system
• Yuan internationalization efforts
• Energy settlement currencies

If China and Iran expand non-dollar energy settlements, this accelerates de-dollarization narratives already circulating within BRICS.

Energy instability reshapes currency stability.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Multipolar Military Shielding
  China is proving it can protect allies indirectly — reshaping how superpowers project influence without direct warfare.

• Pillar 2: Energy Security Drives Financial Realignment
  If Gulf shipping or Iranian exports are disrupted, China will accelerate alternatives — from yuan oil settlements to strategic reserves.

• Pillar 3: Cyber Sovereignty as Economic Warfare
  Replacing Western systems with closed Chinese infrastructure marks a deeper technological decoupling between blocs.

This is not just about Iran.

It’s about whether China can expand influence without triggering world war.

Energy, Cyber, and Power: The Quiet Front of Global Realignment.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Modern Diplomacy — “Beijing’s Red Line: Can China Defend Iran Without Going to War With America?”

• Reuters — “China condemns US-Israel strikes, urges restraint amid Gulf tensions”

~~~~~~~~~~

Shockwave in Tehran: Reports Claim Ayatollah Khamenei Killed in Israeli Strike

Unconfirmed reports of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s death send geopolitical tremors across the Middle East and global financial markets.

verview (Key Points)

• Reports claim Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike
• U.S. and Israeli officials reportedly believe he is dead
• No formal confirmation yet from Iran, Israel, or the U.S.
• Potential succession crisis inside Iran
• Major geopolitical and market implications globally

A dramatic and unconfirmed development has shaken the Middle East: senior Israeli sources reportedly believe Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, was killed in an Israeli airstrike targeting an underground bunker in Tehran.

If verified, this would mark the most consequential political event in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Key Developments

1. Strike on Underground Compound

Senior Israeli officials were reportedly informed Saturday evening that Khamenei’s body was found beneath rubble after a precision strike on his Tehran compound.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a televised address that there were “growing indications” the Iranian leader had been killed, though he stopped short of official confirmation.

Documentation of the body was reportedly presented to Netanyahu.

At this stage, no official confirmation has been issued by Iran, Israel, or the United States.

2. U.S. Reaction

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media indicating he also believed Khamenei was killed in the strike.

However, Washington has not released independent verification.

The absence of coordinated confirmation underscores the sensitivity and potential explosiveness of the situation.

3. Opposition Response

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi publicly celebrated the reported death, calling it the effective end of the Islamic Republic and urging Iranians to prepare for mass demonstrations.

His statement framed the moment as a turning point toward regime collapse, though conditions inside Iran remain unclear.

4. A Leader Since 1989

Khamenei ruled Iran since 1989, succeeding Ruhollah Khomeini.

Key background:

• Born in Mashhad in 1939
• Studied in Qom
• Served as Iran’s president from 1981–1989
• Survived a 1981 bombing that paralyzed his right arm

He has been the central authority in Iran’s political, military, and religious structure for nearly four decades.

His death would immediately trigger succession procedures within Iran’s Assembly of Experts — potentially destabilizing the region during an already volatile period.

Why It Matters

If confirmed, this would represent:

• The sudden removal of one of the longest-serving leaders in the world
• A potential power vacuum in Tehran
• Increased risk of retaliatory escalation against Israel
• Heightened volatility in oil markets
• Strategic recalculations across BRICS, NATO, and Gulf states

Iran is a central actor in Middle Eastern geopolitics — influencing energy flows, proxy conflicts, and global shipping routes.

Leadership uncertainty at the top could spark internal factional struggles or external confrontation.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

Iran plays a role in:

• Energy supply chains
• Strait of Hormuz shipping routes
• BRICS geopolitical alignment
• Sanctions and alternative settlement systems

Escalation risks could:

• Drive oil price spikes
• Strengthen safe-haven currencies short term
• Accelerate regional security realignments
• Impact de-dollarization discussions within emerging markets

Any disruption to Gulf energy corridors immediately affects global inflation expectations and currency markets.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Geopolitical Shock Risk
  A confirmed leadership decapitation strike could escalate military confrontation between Israel and Iran — with ripple effects through global markets.

• Pillar 2: Power Structure Realignment
  If regime transition occurs, Iran’s role within BRICS and its strategic alignment with China and Russia could shift.

Moments like this alter more than politics — they reshape energy markets, currency flows, and global security doctrine.

Until official confirmation emerges, markets and governments remain in a holding pattern — watching Tehran closely.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• The Jerusalem Post — “US, Israel believe Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in strike on underground bunker”
  

• Reuters — “Middle East tensions escalate amid reports of strike on Iranian leadership compound”

~~~~~~~~~~

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Thank you Dinar Recaps

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Late Saturday Evening 2-28-26

Iraq Condemns Iran's Attacks In Babil, Kurdistan, And Gulf States

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   Iraq’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday condemned a wave of Iran's regional attacks, after strikes reportedly hit Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil province and Iran launched missiles targeting sites in the Kurdistan Region and several US military bases across the Gulf.

 The ministry said the purpose of the attacks in Iraq is to draw the country into the ongoing regional conflict, a move Baghdad “categorically rejects.” It reiterated Iraq’s support for resolving disputes through negotiations and called for continued diplomatic efforts, including talks related to Iran’s nuclear program.

 The ministry also expressed solidarity with “brotherly Gulf states” affected by the strikes and stressed the need to respect state sovereignty and international law to prevent further escalation.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Iraq
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Republic of Iraq’s strong condemnation and denunciation of the attacks that targeted various areas, both in central Iraq and in the Kurdistan Region, considering such acts a threat to national security and stability.

The purpose of these aggressive attacks is to drag the Republic of Iraq into the ongoing war in the region—a war we condemn and call for its immediate cessation. Our policy is based on rejecting wars and believing in resolving conflicts through negotiations. Accordingly, we have been among the principal supporters of the negotiations that took place between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America.

From this standpoint, we condemn the ongoing military campaigns against our neighboring country, Iran, while reaffirming our view that any expansion of the war constitutes a threat to all countries in the region and will only prolong and perpetuate the conflict.

We express our solidarity with our brothers, and our firm rejection of the attacks that targeted some sisterly Gulf states. We call for respect for national sovereignty and adherence to international law in order to avoid any further escalation in the region.
The Ministry renews its commitment to diplomatic solutions and constructive dialogue to ensure regional security and stability.

Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Republic Of Iraq
28 February 2026    The Jurfal-Sakhr (also known as Jurf al-Nasr) hosts armed factions aligned with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The two consecutive attacks killed two fighters and injured six others.

 Separately, Iranian projectiles were reported to have hit the vicinity of Harir Air Base in the Kurdistan Region, as well as areas near Erbil International Airport.

Iranian state media also reported strikes on US military facilities in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain. US officials have not immediately confirmed the extent of the damage or whether there were casualties. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraq-condemns-attacks-in-Babil-Kurdistan-and-Gulf-states

Iraqi Factions Target US Military Bases

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Baghdad   The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) reported on Saturday that it carried out 16 operations using dozens of drones across Iraq and the surrounding region.

 In a statement, the group described the targets as “enemy bases,” indicating that further details would be released later.

******************************************

 Meanwhile, Saraya Awliya Al Dam, an Iraqi Shiite armed faction aligned with Iran, executed a “precision operation” with three drones targeting a US operations command in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, “in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran and in defense of Iraq’s sovereignty.”

 Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Al Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyed Al Shuhada —all aligned with the IRI and the Iran backed Axis of Resistance— have previously declared their readiness to join Tehran in confronting the United States and Israel.

 Earlier today, witnesses and security sources reported more than ten explosions near Erbil International Airport, which includes a military section used by US led Coalition forces, and at Harir Air Base, another facility hosting US troops.

 The Kurdish Counter Terrorism Service later confirmed that the Global Coalition intercepted and shot down several missiles and drones over Erbil province, without providing details on damage or casualties.

 These developments came hours after coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted sites inside Iran, described by Washington as actions against “imminent threats.” In retaliation, Tehran, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases in several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Media outlets also reported attacks on bases in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi Kurdistan.    https://www.shafaq.com/en/Security/Iraqi-factions-target-US-military-bases

Iraq Intercepts Nine Drones Targeting Military Bases

 2026-02-28 / Shafaq News- Baghdad    Iraq shot down nine drones targeting military sites in Dhi Qar and Basra provinces in southern Iraq, including four over Imam Ali Air Base, the Joint Operations Command said (JOC) on Saturday.

 According to a statement, three were injured in Basra, “as investigations and necessary procedures are ongoing in accordance with established protocols.”

 The JOC did not identify the party responsible for launching the drones.

 Meanwhile, a security source told Shafaq News that US air defenses at Victory Base inside Baghdad International Airport shot down a drone without causing losses.

 Earlier today, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported two strikes targeting one of its positions in Jurf al-Sakhr (also known as Jurf al-Nasr), north of Babil province.  

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Security/Iraq-intercepts-nine-drones-targeting-military-bases

The US State Department Told “Lwan News”: Our Operations Inside Iran Are Limited And Coordinated With Israel, And We Are Committed To Supporting Iraq.

America – One News   2/28/2026   The US State Department confirmed in exclusive statements to “Lwan News” that the United States is carrying out specific military operations inside Iran in coordination with Israel, noting that these moves came in response to the escalation of threats related to the Iranian nuclear and missile programs after exhausting diplomatic avenues.

 She stressed that the United States is not seeking to expand the war or enter into a comprehensive regional conflict, and that the priority of its actions is to protect its national security and the security of its allies, with a full commitment to supporting Iraq’s sovereignty and stability, and not to target Iraqi territory or infringe upon bilateral commitments with Baghdad, while continuing close coordination with the Iraqi government to ensure that its security is not affected by developments.

 The US State Department affirmed that the door remains open for a serious diplomatic path, and that the goal of the operations is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and achieve regional stability, noting that the Iranian regime is facing an unprecedented test, and the future of the stage is determined by the choices of the leadership in Tehran and its regional behavior, and that any escalation by factions linked to the Iran axis will have serious consequences.

 She added that her operations target the system responsible for destabilizing the region, not the Iranian people, and that any real change begins with respecting international law and stopping support for armed groups, stressing that the stability and sovereignty of Iraq is a top priority and that she exclusively supports Iraqi state institutions. https://1news-iq.net/السوداني-يقود-غرفة-عمليات-دبلوماس/

Government Advisor: Converting The Dollar To Multiple Currencies Enhances The Efficiency Of The Banking System.

Baghdad (INA) – Nassar Al-Hajj –   Advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, affirmed on Friday that the Central Bank's initiative to expand the capacity of banks enhances the flexibility of dollar management and trade finance. He also indicated that converting dollars into multiple currencies strengthens the efficiency of the banking system.

Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "The Central Bank's initiative to expand the capacity of private banks to support international trade for their clients represents an advanced degree of flexibility in managing dollar resources derived from oil exports, by allowing their conversion into multiple international currencies and their use in financing foreign trade.

" He pointed out that "this will facilitate import operations, reduce conversion costs and the risks associated with relying on a single currency, and enhance the smooth flow of transactions through global banking channels."

He added that "allowing the issuance of letters of credit in several currencies (such as the euro, the Emirati dirham, the Chinese yuan, the Jordanian dinar, and others) gives private banks greater ability to meet the needs of their clients and expands their correspondent banking network, which will positively impact the efficiency of banking operations and Iraq's deeper integration into the international trade system."

Saleh explained that "this mechanism comes at the same time within a framework of strict institutional compliance that aligns with international standards and regulations in general, and American standards in particular, thus allaying concerns about regulatory conflicts or currency misuse."

 He pointed out that "the process of converting dollars into other currencies, as a precursor to trade finance, is conducted through a transparent financial system subject to rigorous oversight and governance, which reduces the likelihood of suspicious transactions and enhances the credibility of the Iraqi banking system."

He added that "this will deepen mutual trust with international partners, especially the United States, by confirming that financial flows related to Iraq's foreign trade are consistent with international compliance rules and do not conflict with foreign policy or national security considerations of the countries involved, especially in an international environment characterized by escalating geo-economic competition and the use of financial tools in what is known as soft warfare."https://ina.iq/ar/economie/256085-.html

Sudani Leads Diplomatic “Operations Room” With Arab Leaders To Contain Escalation

Baghdad – One News    2/28/2026   The head of the Reconstruction and Development Bloc, Bahaa Al-Araji, and MP Alia Nassif, revealed in two separate posts on the (X) platform today, Saturday (February 28, 2026), that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is leading an active diplomatic “operations room” in communication with a number of Arab leaders, with the aim of formulating a unified position to contain the repercussions of the military escalation in the region.

 Al-Araji stressed that Iraqi moves seek to find serious ways to de-escalate tensions and block the path to “escalation efforts” that threaten the security and stability of the region’s peoples, noting Baghdad’s keenness to play a pivotal role in defusing escalating regional crises and promoting stability.  https://1news-iq.net/السوداني-يقود-غرفة-عمليات-دبلوماس/

President Barzani, Syrian FM urge regional cooperation after US-Israel strikes on Iran

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Erbil    Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani called for stronger regional coordination on Saturday during a phone conversation with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, as hostilities intensified following direct military exchanges between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

 According to a statement from the Kurdish Presidency, the two sides reviewed the latest security developments and assessed their impact on regional stability. They stressed the importance of enhanced cooperation to prevent further escalation.

 The call follows coordinated US and Israeli strikes on sites inside Iran, which Washington described as action against “imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Regional media also reported strikes on sites in Saudi Arabia and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.

 Authorities in the Kurdistan Region, in response, suspended schools and universities until March 4 across all public and private educational institutions, citing safety concerns.

 https://www.shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/President-Barzani-Syrian-FM-urge-regional-cooperation-after-US-Israel-strikes-on-Iran

MilitiaMan and Crew: QD News Update-Insights from Militiaman & Crew:Short SitRep

MilitiaMan and Crew: QD News Update-Insights from Militiaman & Crew:Short SitRep

2-28-2026

The Crew:  Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man

Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn

Be sure to listen to full video for all the news……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sUkCeYURfU

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Saturday Afternoon 2-28-26

IQD in the Crossfire: What a Trump-Iran Conflict Could Mean for Iraq's Dinar

27th February 2026 in Iraq Banking & Finance News, Iraq Industry & Trade News, Security

The Iraqi Dinar Caught in the Crossfire: What a Trump-Iran Military Conflict Would Mean for Iraq's Currency

The Middle East is once again on the edge. The United States has assembled its largest concentration of naval and air power in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, two carrier strike groups, dozens of warships, and hundreds of warplanes now positioned within striking distance of Iran.

Negotiations between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian officials in Geneva have reportedly yielded "significant progress", but the ultimate outcome may hinge on whether Iran is prepared to offer concessions significant enough for Trump to call a victory. With diplomacy fragile and military options on the table, one often-overlooked casualty of any escalation would be Iraq's currency, the dinar.

Iraq: The Battlefield Between Two Worlds

To understand what a US-Iran military conflict would do to the Iraqi dinar, you have to first understand Iraq's precarious geopolitical position. The country is simultaneously a close security partner of the United States and an economy deeply enmeshed with Iran.

Iraq spends roughly $900 million monthly on Iranian goods, a major portion of this historically going to electricity and gas. Iranian-backed militias are embedded within Iraq's state institutions. US troops remain on Iraqi soil. Iraq's government walks a tightrope between US alliance and Iranian influence, and its currency walks the same tightrope with it.

The Iraqi dinar's journey has been one of the most dramatic in monetary history. The currency dropped substantially from 3 IQD per USD before 1991 to about 1,310 IQD per USD today. Decades of war, sanctions, and corruption have slowly eroded its value.

In recent years, Iraq has made modest progress: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided structural guidance, oil revenues have been strong, and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has maintained a managed peg to the dollar. Iraq's position as OPEC's second-largest oil producer and strong international support drive steady economic improvements. But all of that relative stability would face severe pressure the moment US bombs begin falling on Iranian soil.

Scenario One: A Limited Strike

The most likely immediate military scenario, and the one that has been most openly discussed in Washington, involves a targeted, time-limited campaign against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Trump may order a targeted attack on select military sites inside Iran to pressure the country's leaders into agreeing to an acceptable deal, demonstrating US threats of action are real. The targets could include ballistic missile sites, facilities connected to Iran's nuclear program, or buildings used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In this scenario, the Iraqi dinar's fate would be shaped by several competing forces. On one hand, oil prices would almost certainly spike, and for Iraq, higher oil prices are a lifeline. Iraq's state budget is overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum revenues, and a sudden surge in global crude prices triggered by conflict fears would, in theory, fill state coffers. A better-funded government can defend its exchange rate more effectively.

On the other hand, a limited strike would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation, and Iraq would be squarely in the blast radius. Iran's kinetic retaliation plan relies on a reconstituted arsenal of over 3,000 ballistic missiles capable of striking US bases and allied territory across the region, and many of those bases are in Iraq.

US embassies in Iraq and other Arab states began to evacuate personnel in response to Iranian threats on American bases as far back as the lead-up to last year's Operation Midnight Hammer.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias like Kataib Hezbollah have already issued explicit warnings: leader Ahmad al-Hamidawi warned that any strike on Iranian soil would trigger a "total war" involving militias across the Levant.

For the dinar, this translates to a severe confidence crisis. When violence erupts on Iraqi soil, even if Iraq is not the primary combatant, foreign capital flees, domestic savers rush to convert dinars to dollars, and the black market premium widens dramatically. The Central Bank of Iraq, which sells dollars at auction to defend its peg, would come under enormous pressure. Its foreign exchange reserves, while substantial, are not unlimited, and a sustained capital flight could force a de facto devaluation.

Scenario Two: Sustained Military Campaign or Regime Change

Current contingency planning in the Pentagon is configured for sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if so ordered by Trump. A broader campaign aimed at degrading Iran's military capacity, or worse, one that tips into regime change, would represent a qualitatively different shock to the Iraqi economy.

Iraq's energy dependence on Iran is the most acute vulnerability. If war disrupts those supply lines, through Iranian cut-offs, infrastructure damage, or US sanctions enforcement, Iraqi power grids would come under renewed pressure. Blackouts would damage industry, commerce, and ordinary life.

Economic output would contract sharply, and the government's ability to pay civil servant salaries and maintain social order would erode. In such conditions, the dinar would face significant downward pressure regardless of what the oil price is doing.

There is also the migration and refugee dimension. A major war with Iran, a country of over 90 million people, could produce refugee flows that would dwarf anything the region has seen since 2003. Iraq, which shares a long border with Iran and already hosts displaced populations from earlier conflicts, would be on the front lines of that humanitarian wave. The fiscal and social cost could be immense.

For currency markets, the historical parallel is instructive. During the 2003 US invasion of Iraq itself, Iraqi currency markets experienced extreme dislocations. Capital flight, hoarding of hard currency, and the collapse of normal economic activity all preceded any formal devaluation. A war next door, one that also engulfs Iraqi militias and potentially Iraqi territory, could produce similar dynamics even without Iraq being the primary target.

The Oil Price Paradox

One of the most important, and often misunderstood, dynamics in this scenario is the double-edged nature of oil prices. A major US-Iran conflict would almost certainly send crude prices sharply higher, at least initially. Iran is a significant oil producer, and any conflict that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes, would trigger immediate panic buying in global energy markets.

For Iraq, this creates a cruel paradox. Higher oil revenues would, in theory, improve the government's fiscal position and its ability to defend the dinar. But the same conflict that pushes oil prices up would simultaneously disrupt Iraq's own oil export infrastructure, close off Iranian energy imports that keep the lights on, trigger militia violence, scare away foreign investment, and force emergency spending on security. The net effect on the dinar would almost certainly be negative, as the costs outweigh the revenue windfall.

The Sanctions and Banking Dimension

Any escalation would also intensify the already complex sanctions environment that shapes how the Iraqi economy interfaces with the global financial system. The Trump administration focuses on selective sanctions against Iraqi banks while conditioning waivers for Iranian energy purchases.

This policy could soon affect Iraq's economic partnerships and currency stability. Banks found to be facilitating Iranian transactions face being cut off from dollar-clearing networks, a potentially devastating punishment in an economy that relies so heavily on the greenback.

This creates a further squeeze on the dinar. If Iraqi banks are penalised for maintaining ties with Iran, ties that are partly economically necessary and partly politically unavoidable, the result is a fragmentation of Iraq's banking sector, reduced access to dollar liquidity, and a wider spread between the official and parallel exchange rates. Ordinary Iraqis, who already prefer to hold savings in US dollars rather than dinars, would accelerate that dollarization, further undermining confidence in the local currency.

Historical Lessons: What 2003 Tells Us

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq offers a partial precedent, though the situations differ significantly. In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, the Iraqi currency market experienced extreme volatility. The old Saddam-era dinar was eventually replaced with a new currency, and a managed peg to the dollar was established. Over time, with massive oil revenues and international support, the new dinar stabilised.

But the early years of post-invasion Iraq were characterised by exactly the kind of dynamics a new conflict would recreate: capital flight, dollarization, black market currency trading, and a gap between official and street exchange rates. The key difference now is that Iraq is not the direct target of military action, but it is the unavoidable collateral victim, geographically, economically, and politically sandwiched between the two combatants.

What Investors and Observers Should Watch

For those tracking the dinar, whether as currency speculators, businesses operating in Iraq, or observers of the wider regional economy, the key indicators to monitor are:

The Central Bank of Iraq's foreign exchange auction volumes and reserves. A sharp drop in reserves or a sudden suspension of dollar auctions would signal that the peg is under existential pressure.

The spread between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate. Historically, this spread widens during periods of political and security stress, and a significant widening would be an early warning of impending devaluation.

The status of Iranian energy supplies to Iraq. If gas flows are disrupted and the lights go out, the economic fallout would be rapid and severe.

And crucially, the behaviour of Iraq's Iranian-backed militias. If they activate in response to US strikes on Iran, Iraq would transition from bystander to active warzone, and the dinar would face its most serious crisis since 2003.

Conclusion: A Currency with No Good Options

The Iraqi dinar is, at its core, a hostage to forces far beyond Baghdad's control. Iraq's government has limited ability to insulate its currency from a major military confrontation between the United States and Iran, a conflict whose epicentre would be on its doorstep and whose shockwaves would run directly through its energy sector, banking system, and political fabric.

Administration officials have been unclear about what their objectives are as they confront Iran, and that uncertainty itself is a risk factor for the dinar. Markets hate ambiguity, and a conflict with no clear endgame is the worst of all possible scenarios for a currency already carrying the weight of decades of instability.

In the best case, a short, sharp military strike followed by a rapid return to negotiations, the dinar would likely suffer a temporary shock: a flight to dollars, a widening of the parallel market premium, and a drawdown of central bank reserves, but ultimately a manageable correction.

In the worst case, a sustained campaign, militia activation across Iraq, energy supply disruption, and a regional war, the dinar would face its most severe test since the 2003 invasion. The outcome would depend not just on what the US military does to Iran, but on whether Iraq can remain a bystander in a war that, by its very geography, it cannot escape.

This article reflects the geopolitical and economic situation as of late February 2026. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.

By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News

 https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2026/02/27/iqd-in-the-crossfire-what-a-trump-iran-conflict-could-mean-for-iraqs-dinar/

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Saturday Afternoon 2-28-26

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

REGIONAL WAR SPIRALS: Iran Retaliates After U.S.–Israel Strikes — Middle East in Full Escalation

Fears of broader conflict grow as military operations expand and global reactions pour in

Overview

In the last 24 hours, the Middle East has entered a dramatic escalation with Iran launching retaliatory attacks against Israel and multiple U.S. military bases across the region following coordinated strikes by Israel and United States on Iranian territory. Tehran’s response has escalated tensions well beyond the initial offensive, with strikes reported on bases in the Gulf and threats of continued retaliation. The situation is now actively testing global diplomatic, strategic, and economic fault lines.

Key Developments

1. Iran Launches Widespread Retaliatory Strikes

Iran’s armed forces unleashed a series of missiles and drones targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Tehran’s leadership framed these attacks as direct reprisals for the U.S. and Israeli strikes, emphasizing their willingness to sustain military pressure until they achieve what they consider “justice.”

2. Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage Raise Stakes

The Iranian counterstrikes reportedly hit both military and infrastructural targets, while Iran’s state media and aid organizations reported substantial casualties and damage in Iranian regions hit by the initial attacks. International concern is intensifying over civilian casualties and the broader humanitarian impact of the conflict.

3. Oil Prices Surge Amid Risk Premium Shock

The conflict’s timing could not be more consequential for global markets. Iran’s role in global oil exports — about 3.4 million barrels per day — and its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz have triggered immediate oil price spikes. Analysts warn that continued hostilities or disruption of shipping lanes could send Brent crude and WTI above recent six-month highs, with potential $100+ per barrel scenarios if the conflict expands.

Why It Matters

This escalation is among the most serious in the region in years:

• Regional Security Breakdown: Iran’s direct attacks on U.S. assets mark a sharp departure from previous proxy and indirect engagements.

• Global Energy Shock Risks: With Iran central to Middle Eastern oil flows, any threat to the Strait of Hormuz or export infrastructure could trigger major energy price shocks.

• Geopolitical Polarization: The conflict threatens to divide global actors along strategic lines, with Western governments pushing de-escalation and others warning against further confrontation.

This is not just regional conflict — it’s a potential catalyst for global energy shocks.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

For global financial observers, these developments could significantly influence currency and asset flows:

• Safe-Haven Demand: Heightened geopolitical risk often strengthens assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and Treasuries as investors flee uncertainty.

• Commodity Currency Volatility: Currencies tied to oil exporters and emerging markets may see heightened volatility as price expectations adjust.

• Risk Premium Recalibration: Markets are re-pricing geopolitical risk into bond yields, FX spreads, and equity valuations, shifting capital toward perceived stability.

In other words, currency and commodity markets are no longer driven purely by economic fundamentals — they are being reshaped by conflict risk.

This is not just military retaliation — it’s a reset in risk pricing across markets.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Financial Flows and Strategic Risk

• Geopolitical conflict is now a primary driver of capital allocation. Economic forecasts must factor in not only policy and fundamentals but also conflict risk premiums and defense spending shifts.

• Pillar 2: Energy Security and Monetary Stability

• With oil markets vulnerable to disruption, inflation expectations and currency valuations are being rewritten in real time, potentially accelerating shifts toward alternative energy and settlement mechanisms favored by emerging markets.

This is not just diplomacy failing — it’s the geopolitics of currency and commodities colliding.

Conclusion

The Middle East has slipped into a broader conflict mode, with direct confrontations involving major powers. What began as targeted strikes has expanded into multi-directional military engagement. The economic and geopolitical reverberations are global, influencing markets, energy pricing, and geopolitical alignments.

This is not just war — it’s the reshaping of global market expectations and strategic financial risk.

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• The Guardian — “Iran vows ‘no leniency’ as it launches reprisal attacks on Israel and US air bases”

• Le Monde — “US strikes on Iran reignite fears of rising oil prices”

~~~~~~~~~~

BRICS vs G7: The Rare Earth Power Shift That Could Reshape Global Finance

As critical minerals become the “new oil,” control of rare earth reserves is rapidly redefining economic power, currency leverage, and the future of global trade.

February 26, 2026

Overview (Key Points)

• BRICS nations control an estimated 72% of global rare earth reserves
• China alone holds 36–40% of world supply
• G7 countries lag significantly in reserves and refining capacity
• Critical minerals are essential for EVs, AI chips, and defense systems
• Mineral dominance could accelerate de-dollarization trends

The financial tug-of-war between BRICS and the G7 has now moved beneath the earth’s surface — into the realm of rare earth minerals. These strategic resources are becoming the cornerstone of the next industrial and financial era.

Key Developments

1. BRICS Holds the Resource Advantage

According to recent estimates, BRICS members dominate global rare earth reserves:

• China: 44 million metric tons (36–40%)

• Brazil: 22 million metric tons (15–16%)

• Russia: 12 million metric tons (9%)

• India: 6.9 million metric tons (5%)

• Vietnam (Partner): 22 million metric tons (15–16%)

Collectively, the bloc controls roughly 72% of global reserves, giving it significant leverage over pricing, supply chains, and export policies.

Meanwhile, G7 holdings remain comparatively limited:

• United States: ~1.5 million metric tons (~1%)

• Canada: ~830,000 metric tons

• Australia (Western ally): 18 million metric tons

• EU deposits (Greenland/Sweden): Promising but years from scale

This imbalance places BRICS in a structurally stronger negotiating position.

2. Refining Bottleneck: China’s Strategic Advantage

Even when Western nations mine rare earths — such as at Mountain Pass in California — much of the ore must still be refined in China. Refining capacity, not just reserves, determines real control.

Beijing has increasingly leveraged this position in trade negotiations, occasionally tightening export controls to the West. That capability transforms rare earths into a geoeconomic pressure tool, similar to how oil functioned in the 20th century.

3. US Response: Strategic Mineral Pacts

In response, U.S. leadership has pursued bilateral agreements, including a reported $550 billion critical minerals pact with Japan, aimed at diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on China.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also reportedly engaged in high-level discussions focused on “prudent de-risking” strategies, signaling growing urgency in Washington.

Yet despite these moves, rebuilding refining capacity and supply chains domestically will take years — not months.

4. Currency Implications: De-Dollarization Pressure

Control of rare earths does not just influence manufacturing — it affects settlement currency dynamics.

BRICS nations have openly discussed:

• Expanding trade settlement in local currencies
• Increasing yuan-based commodity transactions
• Reducing exposure to the U.S. dollar in strategic sectors

With China holding the largest reserves and dominating refining, Beijing could gradually promote the Chinese yuan in mineral trade settlements — particularly among developing economies.

If critical mineral contracts begin settling in yuan, rupees, or rubles rather than dollars, the long-term structural demand for USD could weaken incrementally.

Why It Matters

Rare earths power:

• Tesla electric vehicles
• Nvidia AI chips
• F-35 fighter jets
• Renewable energy infrastructure
• Advanced defense systems

This is not just about mining — it’s about who controls the future of technology, energy transition, and military capability.

In the 20th century, oil shaped geopolitics.
In the 21st century, rare earth minerals may define financial power blocs.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

For those tracking the global reset thesis:

• Resource dominance supports BRICS trade leverage
• Trade leverage supports local currency settlement
• Local settlement reduces dollar reliance
• Reduced reliance shifts global reserve composition

If mineral contracts increasingly move outside the dollar system, currency realignment pressures intensify.

This does not imply immediate dollar collapse — but it does suggest gradual structural shifts in global settlement architecture.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Trade Realignment
  BRICS’ control over critical minerals strengthens its negotiating position in global trade agreements and supply chains.

• Pillar 2: Monetary Diversification
  Strategic resource dominance creates a pathway for alternative currency settlement systems — especially in emerging markets.

The rare earth imbalance highlights a deeper truth:
The West owns many brands — but BRICS increasingly owns the inputs.

This is not just resource competition.
It is infrastructure competition for era. the next monetary

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Watcher Guru — “BRICS vs G7: Who Controls Majority of the World’s Rare Earth Reserves”

• U.S. Geological Survey — “Mineral Commodity Summaries: Rare Earths”

~~~~~~~~~~

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