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Mark Cuban’s Unconventional Lottery Advice: What He Says To Do If You Win Big

Mark Cuban’s Unconventional Lottery Advice: What He Says To Do If You Win Big

T. Woods   Tue, September 17, 2024   GOBankingRates

You’re holding your Mega Millions lotto ticket in your shaking hand. You look up at your computer screen announcing the winning lotto numbers, and then back at your ticket. The numbers match. You’ve just won the jackpot.

While this is the dream come true for any person who’s ever purchased a lotto ticket, it also comes with a lot of potential financial mistakes, risks and dangers. Just what, exactly, are you supposed to do when you come into extraordinary wealth overnight?

Mark Cuban’s Unconventional Lottery Advice: What He Says To Do If You Win Big

T. Woods   Tue, September 17, 2024   GOBankingRates

You’re holding your Mega Millions lotto ticket in your shaking hand. You look up at your computer screen announcing the winning lotto numbers, and then back at your ticket. The numbers match. You’ve just won the jackpot.

While this is the dream come true for any person who’s ever purchased a lotto ticket, it also comes with a lot of potential financial mistakes, risks and dangers. Just what, exactly, are you supposed to do when you come into extraordinary wealth overnight?

In June, when the Mega Millions jackpot reached $1.1 billion, Benzinga interviewed “Shark Tank” producer and “shark” Mark Cuban about how to handle such a windfall. Cuban, an experienced billionaire, had a lot to say on the matter.

First off, Cuban recommended playing the long game. As Benzinga noted, the Mega Millions winner was slated to receive one of two types of payout: a $1.1 billion annuity providing approximately $23 million per year for 30 years, or a single lump payout of roughly $528.8 million.

“Don’t take the lump sum,” Cuban told Benzinga. “You don’t want to blow it all in one spot.”

Cuban also recommended playing it safe with this kind of once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. That extends most crucially to the temptation to invest your massive winnings, which he suggested all lotto winners avoid. Whether you accept the 30-year annuity at $23 million per year, or take the single lump-sum payout, Cuban was insistent that you not risk your lotto money as an investor.

“You don’t become a smart investor when you win the lottery,” he asserted. “Don’t make investments. You can put it in the bank and live comfortably — forever.”

He’s likely right. The odds of hitting a jackpot twice — once as a player and again as an investor — are exceptionally rare. Why risk financial peace of mind on the hope of making another astronomical amount of money?

“You will sleep a lot better knowing you won’t lose the money,” he said.

Since Cuban can’t be with you every step of the way on your newfound billionaire journey, he also recommended that lotto winners immediately hire tax attorneys. Such an attorney can guide you and your winnings through the convoluted series of state and federal tax laws that come with winning a huge sum of money overnight, and keep the IRS at bay.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/mark-cuban-unconventional-lottery-advice-121404048.html

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And, Right On Cue, Gold Hits Another All Time High...

And, Right On Cue, Gold Hits Another All Time High...

Notes From The Fuield By James Hickman (Simon Black)  September 16, 2024

This is an anomaly we haven’t seen before.

Gold just hit yet another all-time high. But what’s strange is that, if you look at gold’s supply and demand fundamentals, the price should almost be falling. Not rising.

I’ll explain—

On the supply side, gold production is actually increasing slightly. The largest miner in the world, Newmont Mining, produced nearly 30% more gold in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. And across the entire industry (according to the World Gold Council), global gold mining output is up slightly over 2023.

And, Right On Cue, Gold Hits Another All Time High...

Notes From The Fuield By James Hickman (Simon Black)  September 16, 2024

This is an anomaly we haven’t seen before.

Gold just hit yet another all-time high. But what’s strange is that, if you look at gold’s supply and demand fundamentals, the price should almost be falling. Not rising.

I’ll explain—

On the supply side, gold production is actually increasing slightly. The largest miner in the world, Newmont Mining, produced nearly 30% more gold in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. And across the entire industry (according to the World Gold Council), global gold mining output is up slightly over 2023.

So much for shrinking supply.

But what about demand? Well, this is usually broken down into four main segments.

The first and (by far) largest segment of demand is jewelry. But global jewelry demand is down.

Signet Jewelers (which owns major jewelry brands like Kay, Zales, Jared, Blue Nile, and many others) has reported an 8.5% drop in revenue so far in 2024 versus 2023. Meanwhile China’s Gold Association reported a 27% decline in gold jewelry purchases in the first half of 2024.

Even on the high-end side, LVHM’s jewelry division (which includes the luxury brand Tiffany’s) also reported a 5.1% sales decline due to “an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment. . .”

So overall jewelry worldwide (which is THE biggest component of gold demand) is down. Worldwide.

The next segment which drives gold demand is investment demand, i.e. individual investors who buy bars and coins... but most often invest via Exchange-Traded Funds.

Well, the largest ETFs in North America (GLD and IAU, which comprise 80% of the market) are DOWN for the year, meaning they have been net SELLERS of gold, rather than buyers. Even in the month of August, these two combined for a big fat whopping 1.7 metric tons of net purchases, roughly $200 million.

That’s nowhere near enough to move the gold price.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, all of Asia’s gold ETFs COMBINED only purchased a net 0.3 metric tons (i.e. $30 million) last month. Again, this is simply not enough demand to move the gold price.

And so far for the year, worldwide, gold ETF holdings are DOWN by about 44 metric tons.

The third category of gold demand is industrial use. You might already know, for example, that there’s about 50mg of gold in your mobile phone thanks to gold’s unique chemical properties as an electrical conductor.

So mobile phone producers (along with certain medical device manufacturers and a handful of other industries) also buy gold. It’s pretty small demand, though— industrial and technology use only makes up about 10% of global gold demand.

That said, it’s worth pointing out that iPhone sales (which is a good proxy for global mobile phone production) are down substantially, from a peak of $48 billion in Q1/2021 to just $39 billion in its most recent quarter.

So, to summarize, jewelry demand is flat or down. Investment demand for gold is flat or down. Industrial demand is too small to matter, but even that is down. Meanwhile, supply is rising.

Rising supply and falling demand? It seems like gold prices should be falling right now. And yet gold just reached yet another record high. What gives?

Well, as we’ve said beforethe answer is central banks.

Poland is a great example; despite being a relatively small country, it bought 19 metric tons of gold last quarter alone. And it plans to buy at least another 125 tons in the future. That’s a lot of gold.

This is a trend taking place worldwide; central banks including China, Turkey, Qatar, India, Czech Republic, etc. have loaded up on gold this year. And in the second quarter of 2024, central banks purchased 183 metric tons of gold... which is far more than usual.

Central banks typically buy small amounts of gold, i.e. a few metric tons here and there. But over the past two years, they’ve been buying gold like crazy.

It’s pretty obvious why. They’re concerned about the world, and they’re concerned about the fate of the US dollar and US government finances.

Think about it— central banks around the world own TRILLIONS of dollars worth of US government bonds, i.e. US dollar foreign reserves. And they’re obviously worried.

Congress and the White House run outrageous budget deficits every year. The federal government’s dysfunction is a constant national embarrassment. The US national debt is set to soar by AT LEAST $22 trillion over the next decade. And inflation is far from being solved.

Foreign central banks know this. And they realize that, in a few years time, their trillions of US dollar reserves will be worth a lot less.

So they’re trying to do something about it now. And that means trading at least SOME of their dollars for gold... hence the feverish central bank gold purchases, and the all-time record high in the gold price.

We’ve already suggested that gold could easily go much higher... especially if Kamala wins. I think that’s easily a $10,000 gold price, which would suggest only a small percentage of US dollar foreign reserves invested in gold.

That doesn’t mean the gold price can’t fall in the meantime. Gold prices have been rising for so long, and, realistically, nothing goes up or down in a straight, uninterrupted line.

Some central banks will continue buying gold irrespective of its price. Others will be more conservative and try to play the market. Singapore’s central bank, for example, actually sold a bit of gold recently and are probably hoping for a pullback in prices to buy more.

But over the longer term, gold is still an extremely sensible hedge with a lot of upside.

Having said that, the real value we see right now is in gold miners.

Look at Newmont mining— and, this is not a recommendation, but just an example. Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, i.e. more than 80% of its revenue is essentially gold.

Gold is at an all-time high, yet Newmont’s stock price is about 40% below its record high from a few years ago.

Sure, it’s a much more complicated story; you have to consider gross margins and mining costs and country risk, etc. But the larger point is that gold stocks (especially relative to gold) are very cheap right now... especially when you consider where gold could be a few years from now.

 

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/and-right-on-cue-gold-hits-another-all-time-high-151422/

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Here’s How Social Media Warps Our Perceptions of Debt

I’m a Debt Expert: Here’s How Social Media Warps Our Perceptions of Debt

September 4, 2024 Vance Cariaga  GoBankingRates

Fancy meals, international vacations, luxurious nights out on the town — people share everything on social media. Or so it would seem.

One of the biggest problems with social media is that people only share what they want you to see. They’re not often sharing the difficult things we all go through, or even the mundane day-to-day life moments. And that has the power to skew the way we see all sorts of things — including debt.

This selective sharing can warp our perception of finances, according to Marc Russell, a Financial Literacy Educator, founder of BetterWallet and member of the Financial Board of  National Debt Relief, a company that provides debt settlement and relief services.

I’m a Debt Expert: Here’s How Social Media Warps Our Perceptions of Debt

September 4, 2024 Vance Cariaga  GoBankingRates

Fancy meals, international vacations, luxurious nights out on the town — people share everything on social media. Or so it would seem.

One of the biggest problems with social media is that people only share what they want you to see. They’re not often sharing the difficult things we all go through, or even the mundane day-to-day life moments. And that has the power to skew the way we see all sorts of things — including debt.

This selective sharing can warp our perception of finances, according to Marc Russell, a Financial Literacy Educator, founder of BetterWallet and member of the Financial Board of  National Debt Relief, a company that provides debt settlement and relief services.

“Social media is often viewed as a ‘highlight reel’ that only includes success and not the natural struggles of the creators,” Russell said in an email. “You see this often with some financial content.

Creators are quick to speak about the big financial goals they reached, like paying off debt, but not often do they discuss the sacrifices and the support they received throughout the journey.”

A More Honest Look

Russell has plenty of expertise in this area in his role as an active financial coach across various social media platforms. At National Debt Relief, he’s part of a team whose mission is to redefine the debt-settlement journey by empowering, supporting and guiding clients so they can improve their financial wellness..

Too often, Russell says, not enough information is shared on social media that provides a rounded view of the risks involved with debt.

“Creators won’t discuss cutting back on the things they love and mistakes they made along the way to becoming debt-free,” Russell said. “To be fair, I believe sharing the success motivates people to get started, but we all know that most financial goals are sometimes a long and arduous task that takes a high level of daily commitment.

The entire process can be daunting, and if the person you follow is only sharing the wins and not the complete story, it’s easy to lose motivation after the first rush of excitement.”

Another problem with social media is that algorithms favor short, snappy posts or videos — especially with TikTok. As Russel explained, the algorithm currently rewards creators if they post short, yet engaging videos.

“The challenge is that 30-second videos often include a hook, a little bit of context and a call to action,” he said. “The lack of context can be damaging to viewers, because it assumes that everything is a quick fix and there are limited steps to achieving their goal. This is particularly bad as it relates to paying off debt.”

Why it Matters

TO READ MORE:  https://www.gobankingrates.com/net-worth/debt/social-media-warps-perceptions-of-debt/?hyperlink_type=manual&link_placement=morefrom_link&link_position=8

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How To Access and Use Your Bank’s Financial Education Resources

How To Access and Use Your Bank’s Financial Education Resources

Kellan Jansen  Sun, September 8, 2024  GOBankingRates

Some research says only 57% of U.S. adults are financially literate. Those who aren’t financially literate struggle to make informed spending, saving and budgeting decisions. But whatever your level of financial knowledge, everyone has encountered problems they need help to solve.

If that’s where you’re at, your bank can probably help. Many institutions now have free learning resources available to customers. These can teach you new concepts, help you make complex calculations or just make it a little more fun to manage your money.

How To Access and Use Your Bank’s Financial Education Resources

Kellan Jansen  Sun, September 8, 2024  GOBankingRates

Some research says only 57% of U.S. adults are financially literate. Those who aren’t financially literate struggle to make informed spending, saving and budgeting decisions. But whatever your level of financial knowledge, everyone has encountered problems they need help to solve.

If that’s where you’re at, your bank can probably help. Many institutions now have free learning resources available to customers. These can teach you new concepts, help you make complex calculations or just make it a little more fun to manage your money.

Accessing Your Bank’s Free Resources

Generally, your bank’s website is the best place to look for these resources. Check the site’s menu bar for something like “learning resources,” “calculators” or “virtual coaching.” Click on whatever you find, and your bank will guide you from there.

Just note that you may need to get on your bank’s smartphone app to access everything. For instance, financial gamification is the concept of using gameplay to make managing money more engaging. If your bank offers it, you may get access only through an app.

If you don’t like having to look things up online, give your bank a call. An employee should be happy to direct you to what you need.

Types of Financial Resources Available

With that out of the way, it’s time to look at some common types of resources banks offer. Here are five you may get value from. Keep in mind that your bank may offer more than these.

Online Articles

Many banks have blogs where they share financial articles. Those can be good resources for learning new things. For example, maybe you’re ready to start saving for retirement but don’t know how to start. A bank’s blog might have articles that answer your questions.

You could learn whether a Roth or traditional IRA is better for your goals — and the tax implications of each. Or you could read about investment strategies that will put your money to work.

It’s true that a lot of this is easy to find on Google. But if you’re making financial decisions, you want the information you’re basing them on to come from trusted sources, and your bank should be trustworthy.

Financial Coaching

Some banks also offer financial coaching. This means meeting with a bank employee to discuss your personal financial situation and goals. You may be able to do that virtually as well as in person. But it depends on your bank.

Coaching is great for tough problems you can’t find answers to yourself. Here are some of the things you could discuss:

 

TO READ MORE:  https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/access-bank-financial-education-resources-210022906.html

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Your Bank’s Wealth Management Services Can Grow Your Assets

Your Bank’s Wealth Management Services Can Grow Your Assets — Here’s How

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy   Tue, September 10, 2024  GOBankingRates

Wealth management services offered by banks are generally reserved for high-net-worth individuals. While the minimum amount of investable assets varies by bank or institution, it’s typically at least in the hundreds of thousands of dollars — if not millions. These services encompass a wide range of financial planning, such as retirement, investment, taxes or accounting. In other words, these services help you grow your wealth.

Now, for mainstream consumers to get services and products normally reserved for high-net-worth customers it pays to speak up and ask for them, said Bobbi Rebell, CFP and personal finance expert at CardRates.com.

Your Bank’s Wealth Management Services Can Grow Your Assets — Here’s How

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy   Tue, September 10, 2024  GOBankingRates

Wealth management services offered by banks are generally reserved for high-net-worth individuals. While the minimum amount of investable assets varies by bank or institution, it’s typically at least in the hundreds of thousands of dollars — if not millions. These services encompass a wide range of financial planning, such as retirement, investment, taxes or accounting. In other words, these services help you grow your wealth.

Now, for mainstream consumers to get services and products normally reserved for high-net-worth customers it pays to speak up and ask for them, said Bobbi Rebell, CFP and personal finance expert at CardRates.com.

 “Be your own best advocate,” said Rebell. “For example, even if they don’t have the minimum balance, the consumer can point to their long history with the financial institution as a qualification for a higher status and the benefits that come with that.”

Rebell added that these individuals should also make sure they are fully aware of the services they are already entitled to because many people don’t use services they already qualify for simply because they are not advertised.

Here are services that can help you grow your assets, according to experts.

Check Different Savings Options Available

One of the best things you can do to leverage your bank’s wealth management resources is to gain a full understanding of all their product offerings and financial services, said Erika Kullberg, attorney, personal finance expert and founder of Erika.com.

To start, check out their different savings vessels to see which can offer you the best savings rates.

As Kullberg noted, some banks provide customers with access to traditional or high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs).

“While you take your time researching and making a long-term financial plan to grow your assets, keep your cash safe in whichever savings vehicle can help you grow your cash the fastest,” she said. “Often this is a CD, but that also makes your money less accessible. You need to balance growth with liquidity.”

Look At Investment and Brokerage Accounts

As Cliff Ambrose, FRC, founder and wealth manager at Apex Wealth noted, leveraging your bank’s wealth management services can be a powerful way to grow your assets and achieve your financial goals.

For instance, he said, banks offer a range of tools and products designed to enhance various aspects of your financial life.

These can include investment accounts such as individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and brokerage accounts, which can provide tax advantages and access to diverse investment opportunities.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/news/bank-wealth-management-services-grow-150059799.html

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Fiduciary Vs. Financial Advisor: How These Types Of Advisors Compare

Fiduciary Vs. Financial Advisor: How These Types Of Advisors Compare

James Royal, Ph.D. Mon, September 9, 2024 Bankrate

It’s easy to get tripped up when it comes to the world of financial advisors, and distinguishing fiduciaries from non-fiduciaries can be challenging. But when you’re looking for financial advice, then having a fiduciary on your side can help you get the expertise and direction that’s best for your situation, making it a better fit than a financial advisor who is not a fiduciary.

Here are the differences between a fiduciary and a financial advisor and what you need to know.

Fiduciary Vs. Financial Advisor: How These Types Of Advisors Compare

James Royal, Ph.D. Mon, September 9, 2024 Bankrate

It’s easy to get tripped up when it comes to the world of financial advisors, and distinguishing fiduciaries from non-fiduciaries can be challenging. But when you’re looking for financial advice, then having a fiduciary on your side can help you get the expertise and direction that’s best for your situation, making it a better fit than a financial advisor who is not a fiduciary.

Here are the differences between a fiduciary and a financial advisor and what you need to know.

What Is A Fiduciary?

A fiduciary is someone in a position of trust over the affairs of another. It comes from the Latin word fiduci, which means trust. A fiduciary is bound by law or oath to put their client’s interests ahead of their own, meaning those who engage a fiduciary should be able to fully trust them.

A fiduciary could be anyone with expertise — such as a lawyer, trustee or financial advisor — who must advise a client on the best way to proceed or otherwise act on their behalf.

What Is A Financial Advisor?

A financial advisor provides a range of advice and services around your financial life, including planning for retirement, managing your investments, preparing a budget, estate planning and much more. A financial advisor can construct a financial plan to help you grow your wealth.

Financial advisor is a catch-all term that includes many different kinds of advisors. There are those focused on specific areas such as investment advisors or wealth managers, or those with certain certifications such as specialists holding a certified financial planner (CFP) credential. The term may even include salespeople acting in the interest of a large financial institution who is looking to sell potential clients on the benefits of their products and services.

What Is The Difference Between A Financial Advisor And Fiduciary?

The roles of a fiduciary and a financial advisor may overlap in some ways, but may be dissimilar in other key dimensions. Here are a few of the biggest differences:

Duty Of Care

A fiduciary has a high duty of care for clients, meaning that a fiduciary must always put a client’s interests ahead of their own. In contrast, a financial advisor may only have to act according to a suitability standard, meaning that advice or products must be suitable to clients, rather than the best for their individual financial situation.

Area Of Practice

A fiduciary is a term that crosses domains, meaning that it can be used in areas besides finance. For example, lawyers are fiduciaries, as are the directors of a corporation, relative to its shareholders. In contrast, financial advisors concern themselves with issues related to assisting individuals in managing their money.

TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fiduciary-vs-financial-advisor-types-221830260.html

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Why So Few People Feel Secure About Money

Why So Few People Feel Secure About Money — Even When They Have Lots of It

And why the neighbors of lottery winners are often worse off.

Yahoo Creator  Sean Kernan  June 21, 2024

I’m not rich by any means. But I’ve done well enough to be comfortable, mostly because I saved aggressively early in my career. Yet I still feel like I’m only a stone’s throw from being in poverty, which is slightly irrational.  I remember having no money and having to budget until my next paycheck or risk groveling to my parents for help. It wasn’t a good life. And it still feels like yesterday, even though so many years have passed. Sadly, many people feel this way.

And to some extent — this stress can be constructive. It can mitigate risky spending. You’ll certainly never catch me with problematic expensive hobbies. But I wish I could feel more at ease about my station in life. Many of my friends are in this same psychological boat too. My buddy Brian is a software engineer, who has been making north of $180K per year — for years on end — while living in a low-cost area, and he’s still as cheap as he’s ever been.

Why So Few People Feel Secure About Money — Even When They Have Lots of It

And why the neighbors of lottery winners are often worse off.

Yahoo Creator  Sean Kernan  June 21, 2024

I’m not rich by any means. But I’ve done well enough to be comfortable, mostly because I saved aggressively early in my career. Yet I still feel like I’m only a stone’s throw from being in poverty, which is slightly irrational.  I remember having no money and having to budget until my next paycheck or risk groveling to my parents for help. It wasn’t a good life. And it still feels like yesterday, even though so many years have passed. Sadly, many people feel this way.

And to some extent — this stress can be constructive. It can mitigate risky spending. You’ll certainly never catch me with problematic expensive hobbies. But I wish I could feel more at ease about my station in life. Many of my friends are in this same psychological boat too. My buddy Brian is a software engineer, who has been making north of $180K per year — for years on end — while living in a low-cost area, and he’s still as cheap as he’s ever been.

So Why Are We Like This? How Do We Level Up And Counteract This Financial Anxiety?

The Origins Of The Problem

People tend to downgrade their financial standing. For example, per a survey by the financial firm Ameriprise Financial, only 13% of American millionaires classify themselves as wealthy. Even among those who had more than $5M in total assets — many still said they didn’t feel rich.

These weren’t people living in Silicon Valley, where $5M only gets you a shack. These were everyday people from all around the United States — still feeling underfunded.

Part of this is because of the disappearance of pensions — and fear that we’ll live on our savings and social security to get us through to old age. Both of my grandfathers had pensions, with one of them having two full separate pensions (military and government). But we are now the 401K generation — in a system that is more stressful than ever.

Why do people who have so much still feel sad about their financial standing?

Elizabeth Dunn, psychology professor at The University of British Columbia, and co-author of Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending, looked into this very question. She found that social comparison, in particular, drives much of our financial dissatisfaction.

How we compare our income to others of similar age, education, and region of residence, greatly shapes our self-perceptions and satisfaction. Unsurprisingly, those who compared themselves to groups of higher income, tended to be less happy and more anxious about money.

Unfortunately, a majority of people tend to do upward comparisons. The severity of this impact was most notable: “The income of the reference group is about as important as one’s own income for individual happiness.”

It pains me to admit it: I’m 100% a victim of this statistic. I often watch videos of lavish mansion tours on YouTube, despite knowing the likelihood of me ever owning such a property is slim (unless I somehow write the next iteration of Atomic Habits).

But I still enjoy oohing and aahing over the stunning architecture, classy furniture and paintings hanging on the walls. It’s entirely possible this admiration is only heightening my anxiety about money.

Yet I know as well as you that the person in that mansion isn’t likely to be happier than the rest of us. Within a year of becoming rich, or facing tragedy, the vast majority of people return to their baseline happiness.

What’s most telling is that winning the lottery can significantly impact your neighbor’s wellbeing. One study in Canada found that as the magnitude of someone’s lottery winnings went up, their neighbors odds of financial distress and borrowing increased alongside it.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/story/why-so-few-people-feel-secure-about-money--even-when-they-have-lots-of-it-212029309.html

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How To Manage A Major Financial Windfall

How To Manage A Major Financial Windfall

Danielle Antosz   Updated Mon, September 9, 2024  Moneywise

Virginia dad gives son $1M winning lottery ticket as wedding gift — how to manage a major financial windfall

Most newlyweds expect stand mixers, silverware, or new sheets as traditional wedding gifts. But for bride-and-groom Kiana and Aaron Andrews of Prince William County, Virginia, they received something a lot more valuable.

Just before their April wedding, Aaron's father, a frequent lottery player, purchased a ticket for the Virginia Lottery's Cash4Life draw — and won. He had the choice of either $1,000 every week for the rest of his life, or a $1 million lump sum payout.

How To Manage A Major Financial Windfall

Danielle Antosz   Updated Mon, September 9, 2024  Moneywise

Virginia dad gives son $1M winning lottery ticket as wedding gift — how to manage a major financial windfall

Most newlyweds expect stand mixers, silverware, or new sheets as traditional wedding gifts. But for bride-and-groom Kiana and Aaron Andrews of Prince William County, Virginia, they received something a lot more valuable.

Just before their April wedding, Aaron's father, a frequent lottery player, purchased a ticket for the Virginia Lottery's Cash4Life draw — and won. He had the choice of either $1,000 every week for the rest of his life, or a $1 million lump sum payout.

But rather than cashing out the ticket, Aaron’s father decided to give the winning ticket to his son as a wedding gift. His dad jokingly told Fox 5, "This was the best way to get him out of my basement."

Prior to receiving the ticket, Aaron and Kiana had decided to move in with Aaron’s father to help them save money. But now, with the help of a financial adviser, they've decided to take the lump-sum payment of $1 million, which allows them to help out Aaron's grandmother, set up college funds for their future children, and, one day, buy a home.

"I have a great father who has done nothing but look out for me!" Aaron told Virginia Lottery officials as he redeemed the ticket.

Lump Sum Vs. Weekly Annuity Payments

After speaking with a financial adviser, Aaron and Kiana decided to accept the $1 million lump sum cash payout rather than receive $1,000 every week for the rest of their lives. There are several benefits of taking the lump sum.

The $1,000-a-week payment only lasts as long as Aaron is alive. If he happens to die at a young age, for example, the payouts would cease and couldn’t be passed on to his heirs. However, taking the cash payout means he has access to the funds now.

It’s also worth considering that, while $1,000 a week sounds like a lot, the value of that money will change over time due to inflation.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/virginia-dad-gives-son-1m-100400194.html

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Shocker: Iran Funneling Billions Through the Fed’s System 

Shocker: Iran Funneling Billions Through the Fed’s System 

Notes From The Field By James Hickman / Simon Black September 9, 2024

When I was a kid growing up in the 1980s, my father used to go every summer for two weeks of military training as part of his commitment to the US Army Reserve. And whenever he flew home, we would always meet him at the airport.

But back then, my mom, sister, and I could all go straight through security and sit at the gate to wait for him. In fact that was normal all the way through the late 1990s.

Then, of course, everything changed after 9/11. The federal government took over airport security overnight, and for the past 23 years, we’ve been taking off our shoes, getting fondled by federal agents, and throwing away our liquids.

More than two decades after 9/11, most of these TSA Security rules (the majority of which have been adopted around the world) seem pretty stupid.

Shocker: Iran Funneling Billions Through the Fed’s System 

Notes From The Field By James Hickman / Simon Black September 9, 2024

When I was a kid growing up in the 1980s, my father used to go every summer for two weeks of military training as part of his commitment to the US Army Reserve. And whenever he flew home, we would always meet him at the airport.

But back then, my mom, sister, and I could all go straight through security and sit at the gate to wait for him. In fact that was normal all the way through the late 1990s.

Then, of course, everything changed after 9/11. The federal government took over airport security overnight, and for the past 23 years, we’ve been taking off our shoes, getting fondled by federal agents, and throwing away our liquids.

More than two decades after 9/11, most of these TSA Security rules (the majority of which have been adopted around the world) seem pretty stupid.

Does anyone honestly believe that a 3.4 ounce tube of toothpaste is OK, but 3.5 ounces of toothpaste is a security threat?

This is the kind of idiotic logic behind rules that add unnecessary inconvenience to people’s lives, without providing any discernible benefit.

The same thing applies to those ridiculous consent forms on countless websites across the Internet. Whenever we visit a site we are now forced to “accept cookies”, thanks to a law passed by the European Union’s most idiotic politicians.

They somehow think we are all safer and better off... and that our privacy is protected.

Except that our privacy isn’t protected. Mark Zuckerberg and the Google guys are still following us around the Internet watching everything we do and click. Not to mention the governments themselves grab our biometric and personal data, shove it all in a database, then leave it prone to breach by hackers.

But hey, at least we have those cookie notifications to keep our data safe, right?

It’s just another stupid rule that inconveniences people, without providing any discernible benefit.

Banking is another great example.

Some people aren’t old enough to remember, but it used to be a pretty simple process to open a bank account. You’d show up, sign some papers, and you were done. Now, we’re all threatened with imprisonment, forced to fill out a million forms, and every single transaction is scrutinized under anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism regulations.

The entire apparatus treats you like a criminal suspect rather than a valued customer. And for what?

Turns out, it’s all for nothing.

Laws like FATCA, CRS, and the USA PATRIOT Act were supposedly passed, at least in part, to cut off terrorist groups from the global financial system.

But all the regulators missed that Iran– a nation that has been blacklisted by the global financial system– sent hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas– a blacklisted terrorist organization. And then Hamas used that money to kill innocent Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023.

The US President himself agreed to release $6 billion in frozen funds to Iran for the release of a handful of Americans. So again, what exactly is the point of all that scrutiny in the financial system?

My mother has to jump through all sorts of hoops to prove that she’s not a criminal just to withdraw some cash from her bank account. But Hamas and the Taliban get hundreds of millions of dollars funneled to them, through the US banking system.

The latest example is actually the Iraqi banking system—which was set up in part by the US government after the 2003 invasion.

Top officials from the US Department of Treasury and Federal Reserve helped oversee the establishment of Iraq’s new financial system, including the anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering controls.

Well, big shocker, it turns out that the Iraqi banking system, i.e. the system set up by the US government, was used by terrorist groups to send money to Iran and to Hamas.

So once again, what exactly is the point of all these rules and regulations, which inconvenience regular, law-abiding citizens... if groups like Hamas can still receive ample funding through the system. It’s obvious the rules are pointless and have no real benefit.

The irony here is that so many governments around the world, including the US, are some of the most outspoken opponents of cryptocurrency.

The US Treasury Department hates crypto. They say it is dangerous to have an unregulated monetary system where terrorists and drug cartels can operate with total privacy.

Yet the very banking system that THEY established is what’s actually funding terrorists.

Everyone else has to suffer through daily friction and be treated like criminals, just to send some money from point A to point B; withdrawing $5,000 in cash brings a bureaucratic shock and awe.

And this is one of the biggest reasons why I think it makes sense to own crypto.

I’m not a crypto fanatic by any means. I don’t own it to speculate on the price. And most days, in fact, I don’t know the price of Bitcoin or Ether. Nor do I care.

To me there’s no point in trading dollars for crypto, only hoping to trade crypto back for more dollars. The larger idea is that crypto represents a way to send and receive funds outside of a system run by incompetent bureaucrats who constantly make our lives worse.

It’s similar to my belief that gold makes sense as a long-term store of value; I don’t trust the Federal Reserve or the White House with preserving the value of my savings. Gold is a great way to do so... without having to rely on the financial system.

With both crypto and gold, there’s no intermediary or incompetent bureaucrat standing in the middle.

That’s also why I’ve never seen any reason to debate which is better, gold vs crypto. There’s no reason to argue about it.

Both serve a useful purpose, and both are worth considering as part of any sensible Plan B.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

PS-

If you’re not sure how to get started on a Plan B, check out Schiff Sovereign: it’s packed with incredible insights, including both Plan B strategies and compelling investment research. It’s a highly educational, month-by-month guide that is designed to help you navigate the world from a position of strength, both personally and financially.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/shocker-iran-funneling-billions-through-the-feds-system-151402/

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Protecting Yourself From Both Scams And Tax Penalties

Protecting Yourself From Both Scams And Tax Penalties

Joe Cortez  Sun, September 8, 2024  Moneywise

California man loses life savings, owes more than $30K in taxes after falling prey to sophisticated scam

On top of losing his life savings to scammers, Chester Frilich of Concord, California is facing a tax bill of over $30,000 which could end in him losing his home.

As reported by ABC7 News, his problems began when he received a call from somebody claiming to be from Xfinity, who claimed his account was used to upload pornographic videos. An hour later, he heard from “Jason Brown” with the Federal Trade Commission, listing all of his credit cards and telling him he was under investigation for wire fraud.

In order to clear the issues, the scammers posing as the FTC said they would help him move his money to a “secure account,” which involved him sending thousands of dollars of gold and cash through couriers and UPS. He tapped into multiple accounts, including Certificate of Deposit (CD) and IRA accounts, to send over $200,000 in funds before the police informed him that it was all a scam.

Protecting Yourself From Both Scams And Tax Penalties

Joe Cortez  Sun, September 8, 2024  Moneywise

California man loses life savings, owes more than $30K in taxes after falling prey to sophisticated scam

On top of losing his life savings to scammers, Chester Frilich of Concord, California is facing a tax bill of over $30,000 which could end in him losing his home.

As reported by ABC7 News, his problems began when he received a call from somebody claiming to be from Xfinity, who claimed his account was used to upload pornographic videos. An hour later, he heard from “Jason Brown” with the Federal Trade Commission, listing all of his credit cards and telling him he was under investigation for wire fraud.

In order to clear the issues, the scammers posing as the FTC said they would help him move his money to a “secure account,” which involved him sending thousands of dollars of gold and cash through couriers and UPS. He tapped into multiple accounts, including Certificate of Deposit (CD) and IRA accounts, to send over $200,000 in funds before the police informed him that it was all a scam.

By using those accounts to send money, Frilich amassed a tax burden of around $30,000, which will end in the IRS putting a lien on his home if he can’t pay the bill or work out an arrangement with the agency.

While losing money in a scam is awful, getting penalized on top of it makes it even worse. How can you guard yourself from tax problems as you try to avoid fraud?

Why Early Withdrawal Penalties Matter

While most bank and investing accounts are designed to hold “liquid” assets — defined as cash or assets that can be converted to cash quickly and easily — some accounts are structured to effectively “lock down” money to pay interest and dividends over an extended period of time and are not considered “liquid.” Examples include the two types of accounts Frilich pulled money from: Certificate of Deposit (CD) accounts and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

Both are designed to keep money locked for an extended period of time, but in different ways. A CD is offered by banks or credit unions as a savings option, where consumers agree to deposit their money for a specific period of time before they can make a withdrawal.

CD terms can range anywhere from one month all the way to five years. IRAs are investment accounts designed to help you save money for your retirement. The earliest one can withdraw money from an IRA without issue is when the account holder turns 59½.

Anyone withdrawing money from either of those accounts before they mature will face penalties. Under federal law, banks are allowed to charge penalties for early withdrawal of CDs.

While the minimum penalty is seven days of simple interest if the withdrawal is done within six days of deposit, a larger penalty can apply for early withdrawal at any other time during the term.

TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/california-man-loses-life-savings-120300738.html

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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Thursday Evening 9-5-24

Awareness Leaflets About Buying The Dollar

 September 05, 2024    Based on the supervisory and supervisory role of this bank, it was decided that all electronic payment service providers direct all their agents to publish clear awareness leaflets inside their headquarters .. For more, click here   https://cbi.iq/static/uploads/up/file-172552761480088.pdf  https://cbi.iq/news/view/2665     

The Sri Lanka Dollar Dilemma Is An Example


 
Economical 09/04/2024   Yasser Al-Metwally   

   Many countries, or rather countries with emerging or emerging economies, share the phenomenon or characteristic of the fluctuation of dollar exchange rates and other effects on their economies and their exposure to financial and economic crises periodically.

Awareness Leaflets About Buying The Dollar

 September 05, 2024    Based on the supervisory and supervisory role of this bank, it was decided that all electronic payment service providers direct all their agents to publish clear awareness leaflets inside their headquarters .. For more, click here   https://cbi.iq/static/uploads/up/file-172552761480088.pdf  https://cbi.iq/news/view/2665     

The Sri Lanka Dollar Dilemma Is An Example
 
Economical 09/04/2024   Yasser Al-Metwally      Many countries, or rather countries with emerging or emerging economies, share the phenomenon or characteristic of the fluctuation of dollar exchange rates and other effects on their economies and their exposure to financial and economic crises periodically.

Of course, the size and extent of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations is different from one country to another, depending on the strength of its economy.
 
The rate of impact in rentier countries that rely on oil as a main source of their resources is relatively less and adopt a fixed exchange system, whether in an international currency such as the dollar or pegged to a basket of currencies.
 
Unless oil prices decline, here countries may have equal influence, and it may sometimes be in favor of non-oil countries, depending on how their balances of payments are affected.
 
The main indicator of the size of the effect is the rate of inflation occurring in a country, and some may be surprised that the
 
decline in oil prices may be to the benefit of non-rentier countries that depend on the volume of their exports of their other domestic products.
 
Here I give an example of this phenomenon.
 
When oil prices rise, the Turkish economy is affected by this due to its impact on production costs, which leads to the absence of some products on the one hand.
 
On the other hand, we find that during the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the imposition of the blockade on Russia, Russia was forced to reduce oil prices. Oil to compete and obtain revenues.
 
Turkey was among the countries to which Russian oil was supplied, in addition to China and others.
 
There was a recovery in the Turkish economy at that time, which led to a reduction in the costs of Turkish production of goods.
 
Promises from the beginning on the subject of the problem of the dollar and the fluctuation in its exchange rates, because the exchange rate process of these countries is linked to the dollar, which made them suffer from the presence of more than one exchange rate outside the state’s pricing system.

Here, a number of economists advise the necessity of changing the exchange system and trying to find exchange rates for the basket of currencies (that is, for each foreign currency in the components of the basket and with a specific relative weight according to the commercial areas with which the country is linked externally) in order to eliminate or reduce the parallel prices and bring them to a state of balance with the priceOfficial exchange.
 
These solutions prompted the BRICS group to attempt to get rid of the dollar’s ​​dominance in global trade financing, and it is continuing this project.
 
It has achieved modest results from cooperation, especially in the field of settling cash payments through its currencies, and it is hoped that it will be able to break the monopoly of the dollar in the long term.
 
There is Sri Lanka's experience.
 
How Was It Able To Control The Exchange Rate?
 
Sri Lanka has limited dealing in the dollar exclusively in banks and has prohibited its use and even its carrying, as
 
it is a legal violation of the dollar of unknown origin and is held accountable by law, that is, with a strict monetary policy against (dollarization), as that country has been able through it to achieve stability in the exchange rate and keep it away from the problems of dollarization and deal with the internal economy in two currencies, one of which is subordinated. For a foreign monetary system.
 
Other than that, some countries are trying to achieve a balance between the official and parallel prices through the process of regulating imports, preventing the entry of many goods that do not affect the citizen’s livelihood, and postponing personal desires, such as preventing the import of cars and luxury items for a while, and
 
this is what is allowed by the laws of the World Trade Organization.
 
That is, postponing the import of some goods to address the country's economic situation.
 
The bottom line is that the issue of currency exchange rate fluctuation is a global phenomenon that is not limited to a specific country, and everyone is trying to address it in their own way.    https://alsabaah.iq/102146-.html   

The Central Bank Of Iraq Reveals The Mechanism For Terminating The Electronic Platform

 September 04, 2024

    The electronic platform for external transfers managed by the Central Bank of Iraq began at the beginning of 2023 AD as a first stage to reorganize financial transfers in a way that ensures proactive control over them instead of subsequent control through the Federal Reserve auditing daily transfers.

This was an exceptional measure as the Federal Reserve does not usually undertake to do this.

 A gradual shift towards building direct relationships between banks in Iraq and accredited foreign correspondent banks has been planned, with an international auditing company mediating this to pre-screen remittances before they are implemented by the correspondent banks.

     During the year 2024 and until now, 95% of the transfer process has been achieved from the electronic platform to the direct correspondent banking mechanism between it and the Iraqi banks.

This means that only about 5% of it remains within the platform, which will be transferred using the same mechanism before the end of this year and according to the plan..

     Thus, some expectations about possible effects on the exchange rate and transfer operations are unfounded,

because the process will not happen suddenly or in one go at the end of this year,

 but rather it was already achieved during the past period with effort and careful follow-up, except for what remains of a small percentage that will be completed during the period. The next few.

     The Central Bank of Iraq confirms that trade with the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India, and China represents about 70% of Iraq’s foreign trade as (imports), which prompted the Central Bank of Iraq to find channels for transferring the currencies of the euro, the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee, and the Emirati dirham, via Correspondent banks are accredited in those countries,

 and (13) Iraqi banks have already begun conducting transfer operations with a pre-audit mechanism that has been agreed upon and approved, in addition to transfers in the dollar currency.

     With the provision of channels for personal transfers for legitimate purposes and foreign purchases through electronic payment channels and international money transfer companies, cash sales to travelers, and payment of cash dollars for incoming transfers to the destinations and purposes specified in the Central Bank’s published instructions.

     The Central Bank of Iraq stresses that it has placed external transfer operations and meeting requests for the dollar on sound paths and consistent with international practices and standards and the law on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

     He explains that providing the aforementioned channels for all purposes with the official price of the dollar makes this price the true indicator of economic practices, which is proven by the reality of price stability and control of inflation,

and any other price that is traded outside of those channels is considered an abnormal price that those who practice non-fundamental or illegal practices resort to.

 Those who stay away from official channels in their dealings and bear the additional costs alone by purchasing at a higher price than the official price in order to deceive others about the difference between the official price and others.      Central Bank of Iraq    https://cbi.iq/news/view/2664

 

For current and reliable Iraqi news please visit:  https://www.bondladyscorner.com/ 

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Three Key Trends That Will Shape the Future of America

Three Key Trends That Will Shape the Future of America

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black  September 5, 2024

You wouldn’t be especially impressed by someone’s insight if they told you that the world today is full of turmoil. That’s obvious— from wars and cultural clashes to cost of living crises and a pervasive sense of negativity.

More impressive is that William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted that the 2020’s would be like this nearly three decades ago in their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning.

According to their theory, societies move through cycles approximately 80-100 years long, with each cycle divided into four distinct "turnings." These phases mirror the seasons, with the Fourth Turning representing the harsh winter—a period of upheaval and transformation.

Strauss and Howe predicted that the next Fourth Turning would begin in the mid-2000s, ignited by a crisis that would set the stage for significant societal change.

Three Key Trends That Will Shape the Future of America

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black  September 5, 2024

You wouldn’t be especially impressed by someone’s insight if they told you that the world today is full of turmoil. That’s obvious— from wars and cultural clashes to cost of living crises and a pervasive sense of negativity.

More impressive is that William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted that the 2020’s would be like this nearly three decades ago in their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning.

According to their theory, societies move through cycles approximately 80-100 years long, with each cycle divided into four distinct "turnings." These phases mirror the seasons, with the Fourth Turning representing the harsh winter—a period of upheaval and transformation.

Strauss and Howe predicted that the next Fourth Turning would begin in the mid-2000s, ignited by a crisis that would set the stage for significant societal change.

The 2008 global financial crisis marked the beginning of this period. Since then, governments and central banks have been in a constant state of crisis management, employing measures like low interest rates and increased government spending to prop up the faltering system.

Today, as Strauss and Howe foresaw, this phase is characterized by a collapse of trust in institutions that have dominated since the start of the current cycle, just after World War II.

From the media, to government bodies like the justice system and Federal Reserve, to global organizations like the UN and IMF, these institutions are increasingly viewed as ineffective, obsolete, or downright harmful.

Historically, Fourth Turnings are marked by intense turbulence, often culminating in major conflicts or transformative events, such as the Great Depression leading to World War II, or in the cycle before that, the American Civil War.

While history doesn’t have to repeat itself exactly, the growing dissatisfaction across the developed world is palpable. Issues like healthcare costs, immigration, and rising inequality fuel a sense that society is no longer functioning as it should.

This widespread discontent often leads to political upheaval. As voters lose faith in current leaders, new political movements and parties gain traction.

But none of these ‘saviors’ are going to win by promising to cut spending.

Until their hand is absolutely forced, politicians will continue to borrow and spend as much as they can in a desperate attempt to cling to power. But to be fair, the public is also to blame— they largely demand it.

As Howe writes in the sequel to the Fourth Turning which he published last year:

“Like addicts acquiring tolerance, policy-makers have backed themselves into a corner: The public braces itself for the dark hour when the Fed can no longer ease and Congress can no longer borrow no matter how badly the economy founders.”

This scenario highlights three key trends that are likely to shape the future:

1. Huge Deficit Spending

The US deficit reached nearly $2 trillion in 2023, a historic high outside of wartime or national emergency.

In theory there is no limit to the level the deficit can reach. After all, the US Government can issue the debt and the Federal Reserve can buy it all.

But the problems show up in the value of the US dollar. Not just against other currencies— other governments are devaluing their currencies in the same way. Instead, the value of what a dollar is worth, in terms of real goods and services that people need to buy, is diminished.

The Fed is acting right now as if the inflation problem is licked. But, given the trajectory of future deficit spending, we are really just in the opening stages of a larger, wider inflation problem.

2. Increasing Conflict

The intensity of global conflicts has escalated, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This has accelerated a shift away from global trade and cooperation, as countries prioritize securing their own supply chains and others try furiously to develop parallel financial systems that leave them less vulnerable to the whims of US foreign policy.

This retreat from global integration is likely to increase tensions and create further instability.

3. Potential Monetary Resets

All of this leads to the potential for a monetary reset— typical during a Fourth Turning. The value of the reserve currency is being continuously debased and its status as a reserve currency can leave others vulnerable to the imposition of sanctions or even confiscation of their assets. That’s not sustainable.

There are so many possible permutations of how this could all play out that it’s difficult to say exactly what a global financial reset would look like right now.

But it would almost certainly mean the loss of the dollar’s global reserve status.

That is exactly why we always advocate having a Plan B, a solid backup plan to provide great optionality in tumultuous times.

That’s why we started Schiff Sovereign: Premium, a highly educational, month-by-month guide that is designed to help you navigate the world from a position of strength, both personally and financially.

In Schiff Sovereign Premium, we focus on what we think will work well amidst all the uncertainty, regardless of the sequence of events that occur.

It includes both Plan B strategies (such as maintaining your freedom of movement, and legally reducing your tax bill), as well as compelling investment research.

Our investment thesis focuses on real assets— the world’s most critical, valuable, and useful resources, as well as the businesses which produce them.

Real assets are a beneficiary of the huge debasement of currency that we are seeing. And right now, with central banks across the world starting to cut interest rates again, we should see that trend accelerate.

Gold in particular has already responded to the impending injection of liquidity that lower interest rates will bring, reaching all time highs on multiple occasions this year.

Gold mining stocks, however, haven’t yet followed suit... but are primed to do so. (In July’s issue, we explained why, and released research on two well-positioned companies in the gold mining industry.)

Commodities are also a beneficiary of the unfortunate trend of increasing conflict across the world. Not only are war-time economies typically inflationary, they also require a huge amount of industrial commodities.

But the chronic underinvestment in commodity supply over the past decade has set the stage for potential shortages. As these issues come to the fore, both prices and investment in production are likely to rise— a great opportunity for investors.

But even if these trends don’t play out exactly as expected, investing in companies that control some of the world’s most valuable real assets—especially including critical energy resources like natural gas and uranium—has very little downside.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/three-key-trends-that-will-shape-the-future-of-america-151390/

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6 Ways You Can Tell If a Recession Is Coming (And What To Do)

I’m an Economist: 6 Ways You Can Tell If a Recession Is Coming (And What To Do)

Laura Beck   Tue, September 3, 2024    GOBankingRates

Most people are worried about the economy, and the dreaded word “recession” is on many people’s lips. But how can you tell what’s actually happening and what’s not worth worrying about?

GOBankingRates spoke to economists and financial professionals to get the inside scoop on what’s going on in America right now. Here are six ways to tell if a recession is coming and what you can do about it.

Current Economic Outlook

Michael Faulkender, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Department of Treasury and currently the dean’s professor of finance at the University of Maryland, provided a measured perspective.

I’m an Economist: 6 Ways You Can Tell If a Recession Is Coming (And What To Do)

Laura Beck   Tue, September 3, 2024    GOBankingRates

Most people are worried about the economy, and the dreaded word “recession” is on many people’s lips. But how can you tell what’s actually happening and what’s not worth worrying about?

GOBankingRates spoke to economists and financial professionals to get the inside scoop on what’s going on in America right now. Here are six ways to tell if a recession is coming and what you can do about it.

Current Economic Outlook

Michael Faulkender, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Department of Treasury and currently the dean’s professor of finance at the University of Maryland, provided a measured perspective.

“I do not think a recession is coming but I do think the recent slowdown will continue. There are parts of the economy that are not growing — manufacturing and housing are still struggling,” he outlined. “Other parts like healthcare and government spending are still expanding. The outcome is overall anemic growth, but not yet decline. What the economy looks like one to two years from now depends mightily on the economic policies implemented following the election.”

However, Albert “Pete” Kyle, distinguished university professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, offered a more cautious view.

“Altogether, risks are tilted towards a recession coming either later this year or next year, but it is not as obvious that this will occur as it was in 2007 or 2000,” he said. “Currently, there are some stresses in the banking system. Banks and non-bank investors are sitting on bad loans related to commercial real estate, particularly shopping malls and commercial office space. These stresses are significant. Compared to the 2008 financial crisis, they are better recognized and probably not as severe.”

Kyle also pointed out another concerning factor — the stock market.

“The stock market is currently at a very high level as a multiple of GDP,” the professor shared. “While earnings are strong, it is not clear whether for how long these high earnings will continue into the future. If there is a decline in corporate earnings, stock prices could fall a great deal.”

Professor Jonathan Ernest of Case Western Reserve University offered a more optimistic perspective. “Currently, the labor market has remained relatively strong, the rate of inflation has decreased, and GDP continues to grow year-over-year. None of these measures would traditionally signal an imminent recession.”

6 Key Recession Indicators

Given these differing views, what signs should we be watching for? Here are six key indicators highlighted by our experts.

Yield Curve Inversion and Steepening

Abe Askil, CEO at Titan Capital Managers, pointed to a historically reliable indicator.

 

TO READ MORE: https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/news/m-economist-6-ways-tell-170258745.html

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