Preparing For The Escalation That’s Likely To Come
Preparing For The Escalation That’s Likely To Come
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) April 17, 2025
There’s rumors floating around alleging that top secret plans from the Chinese Communist Party have been leaked, indicating that China’s President Xi Jinping views this conflict with the US as the opening to a complete and total war.
Personally I’m skeptical if these leaked documents exist, and if they are legitimate. I don't think anyone has any way to know.
But I will reiterate my view that, while I don’t believe war is imminent or certain, it’s clear that the US and China are closer to conflict now than they have been since at least the 1960s when China participated in the Vietnam War.
It’s not hard to understand why. The two largest economic powers in the world are deliberately trying to hurt one another. And history is full of examples of economic wars which escalate into much larger conflict.
We can certainly hope that cooler heads prevail. But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action... and it’s imperative to acknowledge that this major risk exists.
How might things escalate?
First on the list is the very real and immediate risk of a cyberattack from China.
In fact that’s already happening.
Remember SolarWinds— the massive cyberattack in 2020 where state-sponsored foreign hackers compromised a widely used IT management platform to infiltrate US government agencies and major corporations?
That single attack gave the CCP access to countless US networks.
More recently, a top Chinese official admitted Beijing’s responsibility for the Volt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting US infrastructure, in a closed-door December 2024 meeting.
In 2015, Chinese hackers breached the US Office of Personnel Management and stole sensitive data on over 22 million federal employees, including security clearance files and fingerprints. They were inside the systems for months before they were detected.
And just this week, major US banks including JPMorgan raised the alarm after discovering the email system of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)— a US banking regulator— had been hacked, potentially to steal credentials that gain further access to systems and information.
It doesn’t really matter which of these can be directly linked to the CCP. Russian hackers, North Korean infiltrators, Chinese non-state entities— they are all in it together.
And the fact that China seems to leave everything intact after their attacks, without damaging or disrupting systems, is actually the scariest part.
We’re talking sleeper viruses. Malware that’s already inside the system.
And the target? Some of the most critical infrastructure in the country. The power grid. Water systems. Financial institutions. These aren’t exactly hardened digital fortresses. In fact, many of these systems are laughably insecure.
The US energy sector in particular still operates on shockingly low-tech infrastructure with outdated code. Same story with large parts of our financial system.
I’ve written before about how SWIFT—the nerve center of global financial transfers—was recently running outdated Windows (version 7!!) operating systems.
Bottom line, Chinese hackers and malware are embedded in vulnerable US systems. They have access. They have credentials. Let’s not be naive about this.
Imagine waking up one morning and your bank app doesn’t load. Your credit card doesn’t work. You can’t send a wire, can’t make payroll, can’t even pay your rent. Maybe you don’t even have electricity, or clean running water.
A Plan B for this scenario has never been more important.
The first step is easy— buy a secure home safe, and keep enough cash on hand to pay for a month or two of necessities.
Add some precious metals which allow you to maintain physical custody of some savings, with no third party in between you and your money. Have gold and silver coins and bars in a variety of weights so you could spend them in an emergency.
Holding some cryptocurrency isn’t a bad idea either— offline, on a hardware wallet that can also go in the safe. Again, this takes some of your savings out of the vulnerable financial system, and allows you to maintain physical custody of your funds.
Here’s another key point aside from money: China manufactures over 40% of the world's active pharmaceutical ingredients— the chemical compounds which make up drugs— and up to 95% of particular compounds, such as crucial ingredients in the antibiotic penicillin.
So even if the final product isn't labeled "Made in China," the underlying ingredients may still originate from Chinese manufacturers.
That’s a significant role in the global pharma supply chain that could cause massive disruptions if they chose to weaponize it.
So if you take regular medication, make sure to keep extra on hand.
Having a power generator is another good backup plan, whether it runs on propane or gasoline, or solar panels and batteries. The same goes for extra water storage.
Again, I’m not saying that there’s some imminent danger. But we shouldn’t ignore the risk. And the point is that there’s no downside to taking sensible precautions.
That’s the basic premise of a Plan B: identify the biggest threats against your safety and prosperity, and take reasonable steps now that give you confidence in the face of uncertainty.
These are all fairly easy steps to take that give us options to respond to whatever happens, since none of us know exactly how any of this will play out.
Soon, we’ll discuss additional Plan B strategies that give you even more dexterity in the event of prolonged system disruptions, and equally disruptive potential emergency responses from the US government.
To your freedom, James Hickman Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC
