The US Likely Has 8 Years—At Most—Before Crisis
The US Likely Has 8 Years—At Most—Before Crisis
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 19, 2025
Yesterday afternoon the US government published its annual report stating plainly that America has eight years left before a major financial crisis.
This is not hyperbole. This is not conjecture. This is not some wild conspiracy theory.
In fact, eight years until a crisis is probably the BEST CASE SCENARIO unless Congress takes serious action soon.
$1.2 Trillion Later, and Air Traffic Control is Still Using Floppy Disks
$1.2 Trillion Later, and Air Traffic Control is Still Using Floppy Disks
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 18, 2025
In 1988, a Professor of Anthropology at the University of New Mexico named Joseph Tainter published a book called The Collapse of Complex Societies.
Now, “collapse” is a strong word that conjures images of apocalyptic scenarios... Mad Max or Hunger Games drama. But that’s not what Tainter intended.
He uses the term ‘collapse’ in its academic, anthropological meaning, i.e. a breakdown of strength and order in society. In fact Tainter’s entire career has been devoted to investigating how large, sophisticated civilizations throughout history ultimately “collapsed”.
Some Clear Thinking On Why World War III Is NOT Happening Anytime Soon
Some Clear Thinking On Why World War III Is NOT Happening Anytime Soon [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 17, 2025
Today’s topic is so far-reaching, deep, and important that we had to dedicate an entire podcast episode to it. Frankly, it is one of the most interesting we have ever done.
With so much conflict in the world—and the potential for even more escalation, particularly in the Middle East—we have heard a lot of worry, concern, and even hyperbole in the media about “World War III.”
I actually have the opposite view: that after the recent strikes and counter-strikes between Israel and Iran, I wholeheartedly believe that World War III is far less likely than it was even just a couple of months ago.
What “Liberation Day” Could Have Been
What “Liberation Day” Could Have Been
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 10, 2025
On July 9, 1807, after Napoleon’s crushing victory over an entire coalition of European nations, the King of Prussia was forced to sign the Treaty of Tilsit, formally putting an end to the conflict.
The peace treaty was devastating for the Prussians; they were forced to pay heavy tribute and war reparations to France, limit the size of the Prussian army, and hand over roughly 50% of their territory to Napoleon.
153% Gain in Three Months
153% Gain in Three Months
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 11, 2025
We’ve been extremely consistent—practically shouting from the rooftops over the last year—that there was an absolutely outrageous investment trend that was going to make people who were paying attention a lot of money… and it wasn’t going to last.
What we’ve been saying over and over is that gold’s bull run was just beginning. At $2,000, we said it wasn’t the end. At $3,000, we said it wasn’t the end… But the bizarre anomaly was that while gold was heading to all-time highs, gold stocks were still remarkably cheap.
They’ll Ignore It Until It’s a Crisis [Podcast]
They’ll Ignore It Until It’s a Crisis [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 5, 2025
Think for a moment about how many times something has been whipped up into a national issue by either the big legacy media or prominent politicians.
The public has been subjected to what they call “a national conversation” about everything from transgender bathrooms to Confederate monuments to abortion rights to climate change.
This Is A $118 Billion “Strategy” For Insanity
This Is A $118 Billion “Strategy” For Insanity
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 3, 2025
Last week when I wrote about America’s new stablecoin legislation (bizarrely called the “GENIUS Act”), a number of readers wrote in asking me to clarify a comment that I made about the Bitcoin company ‘Strategy’, i.e. formerly MicroStrategy. I explained in the article that I am pro-crypto and have been since the early 2010s; for me it’s about freedom.
Many banks have proven time and time again that they simply cannot and should not be trusted with their customers’ money.
Bizarrely, The “GENIUS Act” Might Actually Be Pretty Genius…
Bizarrely, The “GENIUS Act” Might Actually Be Pretty Genius…
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) May 30, 2025
Peter Schiff isn’t just my partner at Schiff Sovereign-- we’ve been close friends for many years. And we generally see eye-to-eye on most things going on in the world.
But one area where we disagree is crypto. Not to put words in his mouth, but Peter is pretty vocal in his criticism of Bitcoin; he says it’s “useless” and a “total scam” and predicts it will go to zero.
Jamie Dimon Warns About America’s Coming Debt Crisis
Jamie Dimon Warns About America’s Coming Debt Crisis
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 2, 2025
Jamie Dimon is one of America’s most prominent and successful CEOs; he built JP Morgan Chase into a $4 trillion juggernaut, so it’s fair to say that he understands global finance in a way that most people-- and most politicians-- do not.
On Friday, Dimon sat down for a 30+ minute live interview at the Reagan National Economic Forum-- named after the 40th President who constantly preached cost-cuts and responsible spending.
This Will Either Make You Hopeful… Or Extremely Irritated
This Will Either Make You Hopeful… Or Extremely Irritated
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) May 29, 2025
Germany’s “Iron Chancellor” Otto von Bismark didn’t pass the world’s first modern Social Security system out of the kindness of his heart.
The year was 1889, and Bismark was fighting hard against the rising tide of socialism; the second volume of Karl Marx’s Das Kapital had been published just a few years earlier in 1885, prompting growing calls for strikes, protests, and wealth redistribution.
For Bismark, his social security program was intended to appease socialists while preserving the conservative political order that he had spent decades building. And on May 24, 1889, his new “Old Age and Disability Insurance Law” was passed by the Reichstag and signed by Kaiser Wilhelm II.
Five Years Later, “Mostly Peaceful” Is Back
Five Years Later, “Mostly Peaceful” Is Back
Notes From The Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) May 27, 2025
On August 24 in the year 410 AD, a large army of Visigoths entered the city of Rome and rampaged through the streets for three full days.
They ransacked public buildings. They destroyed monuments. They looted wealthy homes. And they stole just about anything and everything that wasn’t nailed down. Only some churches were spared, given that their king was a Christian.