Is China Dumping US Government Bonds?
Is China Dumping US Government Bonds?
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) April 9, 2025
You probably saw the headline this morning that China is retaliating against US tariffs with an 84% tariff of its own. This trade war is obviously far from over… which probably means that financial markets are in for a lot more volatility. Most people focus on the stock market. And that has obviously been a wild ride. But what’s happening in the bond market right now is actually a much bigger deal.
Remember that US government bonds have been considered a “safe haven” asset for decades. And that was the case, very briefly, late last week. Investors dumped stocks and then parked all that cash in the bond market
China: I See Your Trade War And Raise You A Cyberwar
China: I See Your Trade War And Raise You A Cyberwar
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) April 2, 2025
It was sometime in the spring of 323 BC when Alexander the Great-- the “King of the World”-- passed through the gates of ancient Babylon for the last time.
He had already conquered the city nearly a decade before. But his men were worn out from fighting in India and Persia, and Babylon was a secure place to give his army a much-needed rest.
They remained there for a few months, until, quite suddenly, Alexander became extremely ill on either the 10th or 11th of June and then died.
If tomorrow is “Liberation Day”, today is “Rational Day”
If tomorrow is “Liberation Day”, today is “Rational Day” [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) April 1, 2025
Tomorrow is being billed as Liberation Day— where tariffs will supposedly free America from those pesky, parasitic foreign markets.
But what’s actually going to happen?
This is the subject of today’s podcast.
Here’s How The US Might Force Foreign Nations Into Submission
Here’s How The US Might Force Foreign Nations Into Submission [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 27, 2025
On June 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon dispatched Treasury Secretary William Simon and his deputy to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to strike one of the most critical—and secretive—economic deals in modern history.
Three years earlier, in August 1971, Nixon had severed the final link between the US dollar and gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. That meant foreign governments could no longer redeem their dollars for gold, effectively turning the dollar into a pure fiat currency backed by nothing but political promises.
This Looks Like A Divorce. And It’s Going To Be A Messy One
This Looks Like A Divorce. And It’s Going To Be A Messy One
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 25, 2025
“I think we are making a mistake,” said the Vice President, in what the media is criticizing as an unclassified text message discussion.
The administration was discussing if, when, and how to strike against the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, which has been menacing commercial ships in the Red Sea since late 2023.
The media is focusing on the fact that someone had inadvertently (or perhaps intentionally) added a reporter from the Atlantic to the chat group. But once again the media has missed the point.
Nothing Combats Climate Change Like a Four-Lane Highway Through the Amazon
Nothing Combats Climate Change Like a Four-Lane Highway Through the Amazon
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 21, 2025
About eight months from now in November 2025, over 50,000 world leaders, bureaucrats, activists, celebrities, and VIPs will descend upon the Brazilian city of Belém for the United Nation’s annual climate change lollapalooza, otherwise known as COP30.
These esteemed experts will gather to lecture the world on how desperately the rest of us peasants need to cut carbon emissions. They’ll make “bold commitments” to end fossil fuels and pledge to save the Amazon rainforest.
This High-Risk Gamble Is Putting The Future Of The US Economy At Stake
This High-Risk Gamble Is Putting The Future Of The US Economy At Stake
Notes From the Field BY James Hickman (Simon Black) March 24, 2025
Russian-born Lydia Lopokova was not happy with her accommodations at the posh Mount Washington Hotel. The world-famous former ballerina complained that, in room 219, “the taps run all day, the windows do not close or open, the pipes mend and unmend.” Not to mention the hotel pool was absolutely frigid, even for someone who had grown up in frosty Saint Petersburg.
Lopokova coped by practicing her ballet moves late in the evening-- the only time when the crisp New Hampshire mountain air made it tolerable enough to exercise
It’s the Difference Between $70 and $140 Million
It’s the Difference Between $70 and $140 Million [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 18, 2025
A few years ago, I was at a private conference listening to a CEO of a silver mining company explain—quite matter-of-factly—how silver prices were being manipulated.
He laid out the whole playbook: how major Wall Street traders would flood the market with short positions in paper silver, drive the price down, and simultaneously accumulate physical silver at rock-bottom prices. Then, once they’d cornered enough physical supply, they’d let prices rise, selling into the momentum they themselves created.
$3,000 Gold Is Not The End Of This Story
$3,000 Gold Is Not The End Of This Story
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 17, 2025
On November 1, 2023, just as the price of gold reached its record high price of $2,000 per troy ounce, I clearly stated my position that $2,000 gold was just the beginning.
As usual, my argument was grounded in history. Back in the 1960s and 1970s, US government spending soared thanks to the mounting costs of the Vietnam War coupled with incredibly expensive social initiatives dubbed ‘The Great Society’.
The national debt exploded as a result.
Freedom Is Like Inflation: You Lose 2-3% Every Year
Freedom Is Like Inflation: You Lose 2-3% Every Year
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 13, 2025
My grandfather was born on April 19, 1915 in a dirty, one-room shack in the town of Bonham, Texas. Given the era, they had no electricity and no running water. And the family considered themselves fortunate that both mother and baby survived childbirth.
Pretty much everyone in the area was a farm laborer; they worked long, hard days in the unforgiving Texas heat trying to beckon life from ungenerous soil. But it was a living-- one that my grandfather joined at an early age.
Is the US Headed Toward Recession?
Is the US Headed Toward Recession? [Podcast]
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 11, 2025
By the late 1920s, the US economy was booming and had advantages that most of the world did not yet enjoy. Manufacturing in America was extremely competitive due to mass electrification powering factories. Farmers had traded out horses and mules for trucks and tractors.
US productivity was surging.