Why Saudi Arabia’s Futuristic City Is A Sign Of Major Inflation To Come

Why Saudi Arabia’s Futuristic City Is A Sign Of Major Inflation To Come

Notes From the Field   By Simon Black/James Hickman  April 3, 2024

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

Did you hear about the new streamlined tourist visa to Saudi Arabia? I’m sure you’re standing in line for it already.

No? Me neither.

I was actually stationed in Saudi Arabia for a while when I was in the Army… and, the most unique ‘tourist’ attraction, at least for non-Muslims, is a place we used to call “Chop Chop Square” where they would do the public beheadings and dismemberments of convicted criminals.

Aside from that, Saudi Arabia has virtually nothing to offer tourists. At least for now.

But over the past few years the government has set itself on a path to building massive futuristic cities and giant resorts in an effort to bring tourists and diversify its economy-- including a recently streamlined visa process.

But to me, this screams of desperation… because it means that Saudi Arabia’s oil industry is in serious trouble.

As recently as just a century ago, what we know as ‘Saudi Arabia’ today was just a bunch of nomadic tribes roaming the desert who were constantly at war with one another.

Then one day a tribal leader named Abdulaziz Ibn Saud rose to power, a bit like Genghis Khan, and conquered everyone else. And in 1932, he declared himself sole ruler of the newly established Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Initially he wasn’t King of much at all; Saudi Arabia was mostly just a desert backwater in the early 1930s.

But things began to change quickly when a major oil discovery was made in early March of 1938. And over the years, Saudi Arabia’s prominence in the world grew dramatically.

By 1970, Saudi Arabia had overtaken the United States as the world’s #1 oil producer, with daily output more than tripling over the course of that decade to roughly 10 million barrels per day.

Ever since then there has been almost a Homeric mythology that Saudi Arabia has a sort of inexhaustible ocean of oil, and they could just turn on a spigot and fill up millions of barrels.

But that’s simply not true.

In fact, more than 40 years later, Saudi Arabia produces less oil today than they did in 1980. And there has long been speculation that Saudi oil reserves might actually be running low.

Not long ago, in fact, the Saudi government announced that they would make investments in their oil infrastructure to increase their maximum production capacity to 13 million barrels per day… but nothing further.

In other words, they set a hard ceiling for how much oil they were capable of producing, essentially shattering the mythology of their infinite oil capacity.

Then, just two months ago, they reversed their plans, and announced that their maximum drilling capacity would be 12 million barrels, and not 13 million.

Both of these should have been taken as obvious indicators that Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves are well past their peak… and that they know it.

But there is perhaps no greater indicator than the Saudi government’s desperate attempt to give its economy a gigantic sexy makeover.

For example, Saudi Arabia is building a ski resort in the desert mountains... where it occasionally dips below freezing in the winter. Then there’s Neom, the futuristic megapolis planned for the coast of the Red Sea featuring flying cabs and an artificial moon.

Then there’s The Line, a city stretching for 170 kilometers across the desert. And of course there’s the Red Sea Project, a luxurious resort the size of Belgium.

The more Saudi Arabia launches these sorts of projects, the more obvious it becomes that they are running out of oil and are desperately trying to diversify their economy while they still have time.

The fact that Saudi Arabia even started selling off small pieces of its state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, back in late 2019 is another indicator.

They could have IPO’d in 1988… or 2005… or any other time. But they didn’t. It seems like they know they’re in decline, and they’re trying to monetize the mythology of their oil reserves while they still can.

Now, Saudi Arabia isn’t going to run out of oil anytime soon; rather, the larger point is that supply and demand fundamentals will likely lead to much higher oil prices in the future.

And this is very inflationary.

Oil is the most important energy commodity in the world, and so its price influences the price of just about everything. If oil prices spike, then it’s not just the price of gasoline that goes up.

The cost of operating data centers with racks of servers and GPUs will increase. Food costs will increase. Manufacturing costs will increase. Virtually everything will increase in price.

Energy prices, like just about all prices, are ultimately about supply and demand. And the demand side is pretty easy to see— it will most likely continue increasing as emerging economies and global population grow.

Yes, there may be a time off in the future where oil is no longer necessary. But that’s still a long way out. Because guess what critical commodity you need to produce solar panels and wind turbines? Oil.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, it’s clear that one of the world’s biggest oil producers is in decline. At a minimum, they won’t be able to increase production commensurate with the increase in demand. And they’ve flat out admitted to that.

Meanwhile, another of the world’s biggest oil producers, the United States, is going out of its way to obstruct oil companies.

They create special taxes to penalize them. They refuse to follow the law and auction off concessions. They never miss an opportunity to demonize them.

Even in the financial industry, bankers and investors deprive the industry of the funds necessary for exploration. Hedge funds have taken over the Boards of major oil companies and forced them into inefficient green energy projects.

The United Nations hosts entire summits about phasing out oil production.

And let’s not forget about the fanatics who vandalize art museums and glitter bomb public sporting events to demand that the world “just stop” producing oil.

So, we have rising demand coupled with policies that restrict supply. The end result, predictably, has been rising oil prices, which are now hovering around $85-$90.

This is one of the reasons why the inflation numbers remain high; again, expensive energy impacts core inflation.

I write a lot about why we think the future is inflationary, and a lot of it has to do with the tidal wave of debt and government spending.

But that’s just one source of inflation. Higher energy prices are another.

Like the debt problem, however, the energy problem is also solvable. There’s plenty of oil in the world-- the issue is just misguided policy. There are also other technologies (like nuclear) which can provide abundant, cheap, clean energy.

 There doesn’t seem to be much appetite among the environmental fanatics who enjoy complaining, but not actually solving any problems.

Now, one way to offset this oil cost inflation is to own shares of the oil companies themselves; and right now, several of them that are very cheap since it’s apparently not socially acceptable to own them.

In our investment research newsletter the 4th Pillar, we highlighted a highly profitable oil producer that is practically debt-free, and trading at a very attractive Price/Earnings ratio of just 3.4.

The company was able to turn a strong profit when oil prices were low, and they’re positioned to do extremely well as oil prices go higher.

Of course, no one can be happy about the prospect of future inflation.

But there are solutions. And if you understand what’s likely coming, you can take steps now to reduce the impact or even potentially benefit from inflation.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  

Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

PS. I mentioned an oil company we have researched for our investment research newsletter the 4th Pillar. So far, we have added three to our portfolio. But oil isn’t the only critical real asset we discuss.

We’ve also detailed gold miners, iron works, shipping companies, agriculture, and so many more vital investments that make the world go round.

They all have something in common— they are great investments to guard against, or even benefit from, inflation, and they are all trading at extremely low valuations.

You can learn more about the 4th Pillar here.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/why-saudi-arabias-futuristic-city-is-a-sign-of-major-inflation-to-come-150337/

3 Times You Should Never Ask For $100 Bills at the Bank

I’m a Bank Teller: 3 Times You Should Never Ask For $100 Bills at the Bank

Andrew Lisa  Wed, April 3, 2024  GoBankingRates

According to data intelligence firm SAS Analytics, $100 bills account for 34% of paper currency in circulation in the U.S. and 82% of its value.

In short, most of our paper money is in hundreds — by a mile — but that doesn’t mean there’s never a bad time to walk into a bank branch and ask for one.

Whether you need a fresh, crisp C-note to put in a birthday card, a wedding envelope or just to stash in your emergency cash pile at home, you’ll want to pick your moment.

Here’s what you need to know.

A Note About the Curious, Cumbersome and Crime-Fueling C-Note

The Wall Street Journal and the New Republic are among several publications that have recently reported on a peculiar monetary irony. Although the $100 bill is far and away the most common note — it surpassed even the ubiquitous $1 bill in 2016 — it’s the least commonly used, by far.

ATMs don’t stock hundreds, many retailers don’t accept them and the mere sight of one makes register clerks reach for the counterfeit-detection pen. Look in your wallet. It’s likely you’re not holding any hundreds, and neither is the vast majority of upright citizens.

Bye, Bye, Benjamin?

As part of a longstanding campaign to stop printing and even recall existing $100 bills, the New Republic wrote, “Benjamins are the favorite currency of criminals and almost no one else.”

Rich tax evaders, corrupt foreign officials, money launderers, counterfeiters and other bad actors hoard them, but the law-abiding masses rarely use them except for overseas travel or special occasions.

As far back as 1976, an economist named James Henry called for an end to the $100 bill in an article in The Washington Monthly because — even nearly a half-century ago  — it was the preferred currency of organized crime and tax evaders almost exclusively. In 1945, the Treasury stopped printing $500 and $1,000 bills; and, in 1969, it recalled all remaining $1,000 bills, $5,000 bills and $10,000 bills because of their overwhelming prevalence in money laundering.

That leaves just the mighty C-Note at the top of the hill.

In short, there’s no bill quite like the Benjamin, and asking a bank for one isn’t like asking for any other denomination. Here’s when to avoid doing so.

Avoid Peak Banking Hours

Michael Ashley is a financial planner and the founder of the personal finance site Richiest, but he spent years as a bank employee at Wells Fargo and Citi, two of the largest financial institutions in the country and the world.

To Read Full Article Go Here:

https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/m-bank-teller-3-times-170019553.html

A Lesson In Learning To Say "No"

A Lesson In Learning To Say "No"

Tim Keown  ESPN Senior Writer

(Note: This Article can apply to Lotto-Winners, A Big Inheritance and Dinarians!)

HERE'S A CHALLENGE: Imagine what it feels like to be 21 years old, extremely successful, famously wealthy, wildly stressed and unbearably miserable. How, you might wonder, can all those conditions exist simultaneously?

Start here, with Cowboys All-Pro offensive tackle Tyron Smith, talking to his mother on the phone one day in 2012, his second year in the NFL, during a time of growing tension between him

"We've found a house," Frankie Pinkney told her son.

By this stage, wariness had become as intrinsic to Smith's identity as his brown eyes and bookcase shoulders. Silently, he awaited details. He had agreed to purchase a home in Southern California for his mother and stepfather. They would live in it; he would own it as an investment.

The agreed-upon budget was roughly $300,000, but over the course of the conversation, Frankie dropped the bomb. List price: more like $800,000.

Smith, now 23, is sitting at a polished wood table in the conference room of his lawyer's Dallas office. Surrounded by his girlfriend, accountant and lawyer, he fixes his eyes on a spot somewhere high on the floor-to-ceiling window. "Yeah, my parents wanted a house," Smith says. "But it was way bigger than mine and cost way more than mine."

It's not an easy topic for Smith to discuss -- recounting the conversation appears to be nearly as hard as being on the phone in the first place. He long ago gave up trying to pinpoint when it all went wrong, when the combination of family and money turned corrosive, when one ceased to exist without the other. He recites facts, stripped of emotion, as if determined to turn a painful time in his life into an after-action report.

"That call," he says. "That was the point where I said, 'That's enough.'"

At that precise moment, as he hung up the phone without giving his mother assent or encouragement, something hardened inside him. Reclaiming his finances, that was the easy part. Demystifying his new life -- being something other than a conduit for the wishes of those around him -- that was more complicated.

It works like this: We lack the linguistic dexterity to explain the myriad paths of young men who emerge from poverty -- or a simple lack of privilege -- and achieve riches by playing a game. When words fail us, a creation myth must fill the void, and so the modern professional athlete becomes our Sedna, a massive woman of Inuit legend who lives at the bottom of the ocean, controlling the underworld by providing fish to keep her people from going hungry.

Our version of Sedna frees himself from the streets -- the temptations, the poverty, the turbulent flow of every Bad Part of Town -- through a ceaseless, unquenchable devotion to his sport. Visions of The Escape accompany every rep on the bench press, every free throw in an empty gym. In short, his life is a series of made-in-Akron, Beats by Dre moments.

Yes, he will rise up to leave it all behind, but here's where the mythological sleight of hand appears: He'll bring it all with him too. He can't forget where he came from. The myth mandates loyalty and strikes down the ingrate.

And all those people who toiled alongside, those who believed in him and sheltered him and sacrificed for him? They'll also come along, for he's the sin-eater, absorbing all debts -- moral and financial -- so others can be absolved. And his people will never go hungry again.

Jeff Wilson His family's demands for money isn't an easy topic for Smith to discuss.

 IT LONG AGO became easier for an athlete to subscribe to this myth than to defy it with his personal story. Easier to nod and smile and tacitly agree to be a benign receptacle for our society's need to bundle its fairy tales into color-coded boxes.

Why else would newly minted professional athletes -- and let's cut the pretense: It's nearly always young black athletes -- invariably be asked whether they've bought their mother a new house? Or a new car? Or both? Does anyone know whether Aaron Rodgers moved his stay-at-home mother and chiropractor father out of their Chico, California, home and into a beach mansion? Has anyone ever thought to ask?

But could it be possible, ever so slightly possible, that athletes who come from similar backgrounds can have wildly dissimilar stories?

Smith's story is best told chronologically. And it begins, as so many do, in a van filled with cleaning supplies rattling down a desolate highway somewhere in the Mojave Desert.

 To Read Full Story Go here:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread141125/dallas-cowboys-tyron-smith-gets-control-battling-family-money

How To Become A Personal Finance Black Belt

How To Become A Personal Finance Black Belt

Written by Sam

David Allen in “Getting Things Done” compares productivity to the martial arts. He gives instruction on how to become a black belt in your personal productivity with a “mind like water” that allows you to handle anything that comes your way with a balanced response. When a stone is thrown into a pond, the water reacts with perfect balance. It reacts just enough to disperse the energy, no more, and then returns to a calm state. It doesn’t over or under react.

Becoming a black belt and having a “mind like water” in your personal finances is very similar. It means you can take whatever is thrown at you without knocking your finances out of control. You can respond to any situation with perfect balance. Unexpected events or changes in your finances, good or bad, can be handled with optimum efficiency, and little or no stress. It means you can direct the flow of money where you need it almost effortlessly.

In an effort to help people gauge where they are in their personal finance development, I’ve defined what people at the various “belts” might look like. Where are you?

White Belt

You’ve recognized there is a problem with your finances and have committed to taking control. Recognition that there’s problem may come as a nagging doubt that you’re not meeting all your financial goals or a harsh reality check as you face mounting debt.

You have a lot of stress concerning finances (even if you’re living within your means). You tend to fight with your spouse every time you discuss financial matters. You recognize your spending isn’t in line with your true values. You have no idea where all the money goes from month to month. You may be living paycheck to paycheck.

If you saved $5 on your phone bill, it would just disappear somewhere but you don’t know where. Your idea of an emergency fund is a credit card or Home Equity Line of Credit. You frequently pay late fees on your bills and unnecessary bank fees. Net worth? What’s that?

Despite your lack of financial control, you have a strong resolve to take action even though the thought of facing the “deep mess” of your finances seems overwhelming. You and your spouse have agreed to work together.

In an effort to get your spending under control, you’ve started using cash for your “out-of-control” budget categories. You’ve stopped using credit cards somewhat reluctantly and possibly out of the sheer pain of your dire financial straights.

Despite some complaining, your family has agreed to use cash as well. You’ve taken initial steps to figure out what your basic monthly income and expenses are and have tried budgeting for at least one month even though it doesn’t match reality yet.

Most importantly, you’re no longer willing to BE IN DEBT!

You’re no longer willing to constantly WORRY ABOUT MONEY!

You’re no longer willing to FIGHT ABOUT MONEY!

You’re no longer willing to PAY LATE FEES!

You’re committed to TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR FINANCES!

You’re committed to WORKING THROUGH FINANCIAL ISSUES TOGETHER WITH YOUR SPOUSE!

White belts come in many shapes and sizes. Of course, those steeped in debt and on the verge of bankruptcy can be white belts, but so can those who are living within their means (see below).

Being a white belt means you don’t have total control over where your money goes. Your spending doesn’t reflect your true values and is not conscious. The white belt is about recognition and commitment. You’ve recognized a need to change and are committed to doing what it takes to change.

Green Belt

You’re well under way implementing your financial-management plan. You’ve budgeted for at least 3 months in a row and have worked many of the kinks out. Your budget actually reflects reality.

To Read More Go Here:

http://www.gettingfinancesdone.com/blog/archives/2006/10/how-to-become-a-personal-finance-black-belt/

"8 Ways to Prepare to Become a Millionaire"

"8 Ways to Prepare to Become a Millionaire"

Written by Sam

 Today I went to lunch with a very wealthy person. I don’t know exactly how wealthy , but based on his frequent trips to Maui, the fact that he earns a free plane ticket every month through his frequent flier points, and the fact that the other day he decided to go out and buy a truck just because he’s never had one before, there’s good reason to believe he’s close to a seven-digit earner.

As I talked with him, it raised a lot of questions in my mind about how managing my finances will change as my wealth grows.   If I were a millionaire would I still need to budget? Would I still want to track all my spending? Would I still need to negotiate with my wife about finances?

 It seems logical that with an income over $1,000,000 a year you wouldn’t need to plan as vigorously. But in the end that’s a lie. Millionaires that manage their money irresponsibly can quickly lose it all and fall from grace (MC Hammer comes to mind).

Financial management principles are the same for millionaires and low-income-earners alike. Certainly the numbers your dealing with will change, but the basic principles and processes are still the same.

In fact, by following sound financial management principles and optimizing your frame of mind, you can accelerate the process of building wealth and know how to keep it when you arrive. Here are 7 ideas that will help you think about and manage money like a millionaire, regardless of your income.

 1. Be Who You Want To Be    Earning more money amplifies who you are.

 I’m going to borrow my first idea directly from my lunch partner who said “earning more money really just amplifies who you are.” While that might seem initially like a good thing, it really is a double-edged sword.

 For some, becoming a millionaire leads to a life of over-indulgence and decay. We catch glimpses of this in the popular media and entertainment world; drug addiction, abuse, and infidelity. Blemishes in your character will still be there if you become wealthy.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking that having more money will solve your problems. It could make them worse.

On the other hand, if you have a mindset of serving and making a postitive contribution to your family and community now, you will be able to manifest those contributions with even greater power and effectiveness when you’re rich.

 By focusing on the positive contribution you want to make in your life, you will be prepared to expand and amplify your contribution as you earn more money.

 2. Build Your Relationships   Earning more money amplifies your relationship dynamics.

 Let me tell you a secret: earning more money does not solve your relationship problems. Even though my income has increased significantly over our 10 years of marriage, we still tend to argue about the exact same financial issues.

 If you have bad arguments over $100, just think of the how intense they will get arguing over $10,000 or $100,000. Working out your finances as a couple isn’t about the dollars, it’s about your values.

 By making all your spending and budgeting explicit, and by working as a team, you can address those values differences before they get out of control. As you become more wealthy, you’ll have a trusted, agreed-upon system in place to manage your increase.

3. Spend Money Consciously, But On A Macro Level

http://www.gettingfinancesdone.com/blog/archives/2007/01/8-ways-to-prepare-to-become-a-millionaire/

The Easiest Way To Get The World’s 6th Best Passport

The Easiest Way To Get The World’s 6th Best Passport

Notes From the Field By Simon Black  March 27, 2024

On June 5, 1947, US Secretary of State George Marshall gave the commencement speech at Harvard University.

This was just two years after the end of World War II, and in this speech, he first proposed giving $12 billion (approximately $170 billion in 2024 dollars) in economic assistance to help rebuild Western European economies ravaged by the war.

But it was about more than just throwing money at the problem.

What became known as the Marshall Plan was also meant to remove trade barriers, increase economic cooperation between countries, and prevent the spread of communism.

Remember, this was at a time when people still widely understood that capitalism was a win/win system where people take risks and work hard to create value and mutual prosperity.

By the 1950s, it was obvious that the Marshall Plan was playing a key role in the recovery of Europe's economy and laying the foundations for the post-war boom.

It was in this spirit of cooperation— and gratitude for the US— that the US and the Netherlands got together in 1956 to sign the Dutch American Friendship Treaty (DAFT). Yes, I chuckled at the acronym too.

The point was to make it easier for Americans to live and invest in the Netherlands, and vice-versa, and it’s still in force today.

The treaty allows US entrepreneurs and freelancers to obtain legal residency in the Netherlands for the purpose of starting a business, with an initial requirement of depositing approximately EUR 4,500 (about $4,900) in a Dutch bank.

In the digital age, this allows a wide range of self-employed professionals, like IT consultants and freelance writers, to easily benefit from DAFT without needing to establish a traditional brick-and-mortar business.

And after five years of total residency, you can apply for Dutch citizenship.

Now, nothing against the Netherlands, but you may not want to live in a place where it rains about half the year. Or a 6+ hour time zone difference from the US might not work for you.

But the same treaty offers an even better deal in the six Dutch territories of the Caribbean— Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, Saba, Saint Maarten, and Saint Eustatius.

Under the treaty, US citizens are entitled to obtain legal residency in one of these islands without even having to start a local company or invest money.

To maintain your residency, you need to keep closer connections to the island, and cannot leave the country for longer than 12 consecutive months unless it’s for medical reasons.

Plus, this one strategy may allow them to accomplish several goals.

For example, some of the most basic elements of a Plan B include gaining foreign residency and cutting your tax rate.

By gaining this easy residency and moving outside of the US, you could also use the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion to earn $126,500 tax free in 2024. Double that for married couples, and add the Foreign Housing Exclusion, and you’re talking about well over a quarter million dollars each year you can earn tax free.

And because of the tax rules on these islands, in most cases, you should be able to minimize or even eliminate your taxation there entirely (although you should definitely consult a tax professional who understands your particular situation).

Finally, this strategy puts you on a five year path to be able to naturalize in the Netherlands, which comes with the sixth best passport in the world. That’s an amazing passport to pass down to future generations.

There is a downside however... in order to become a Dutch citizen, you generally must renounce your other citizenships. (They do, however, make exceptions if giving up your original citizenship would create a serious hardship or disadvantage.)

But that’s under current Dutch law. That could change in five years; after all, Germany recently did away with the requirement to renounce other citizenships.

Now, DAFT is obviously not for everyone. But the larger point is that it’s a good way to think about implementing a Plan B to combine multiple benefits of a single strategy.

For a remote worker who wants to move to a warmer climate, obtain a foreign residency, cut their taxes, and gain a second passport, this ticks a lot of boxes.

You may have entirely different goals.

But chances are, you can find ways to craft your own Plan B in a similar manner that allows you to gain multiple benefits from a single action.

For example, we recently wrote about the Greek Golden Visa, which allows you to gain a foreign residency by buying property. It’s a great “back up residency,” since there are minimal requirements to spend time within Greece.

It’s also a way to gain some investment return from your Plan B, by renting out the property when you’re not there. Plus, Greece offers great tax incentives to retirees who move there.

So you could gain a foreign residency now, and use the rental income to pay for the home you plan to retire in.

Even something as simple as contributing to a tax-advantaged retirement account can allow you to employ multiple strategies to not just cut your taxable income, but also save for retirement.

Depending on the structure, you could also gain more control and options over where your retirement money is invested or capitalize a new business from your retirement account without penalties.

There are a lot of tools out there to take back so much of your freedom and prosperity. It makes sense to use them to their full potential.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-easiest-way-to-get-the-worlds-6th-best-passport-150317/  

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

“It looks like fly crap to me. . .”

“It looks like fly crap to me. . .”

Notes From the Field by Simon Black / James Hickman  March 25, 2024

I’m on my way back home from Mexico City after an incredible weekend event here with more than 100 of our Total Access members.

First things first, if you’ve never been to Mexico City, I highly recommend it. A lot of people have a misconception that the city is some kind third world dump. It’s not. And most first-time visitors are stunned by the vast green areas, expansive parks, tree-lined streets, museums, architecture, and modern lifestyle.

In my opinion it also has some of the best restaurants in the western hemisphere. You can eat extremely well in Mexico City, but you don’t pay very much for it.

The event we held for our Schiff Sovereign Total Access members was also pretty great.

I started off the conference explaining why we should expect higher inflation in the future-- and I’ve written about this extensively. The US government’s own projections call for $20 trillion in additional debt over the next decade. And frankly we think they’re woefully underestimating the problem.

But even $20 trillion will likely prove catastrophic. That would mean the US national debt will reach $55 trillion.

If yields remain at today’s levels (roughly 4.5%), then the government will have to spend nearly $2.5 trillion per year, just to pay interest on the debt. That would make interest on the debt the #1 expense of the federal government, triggering a vicious cycle in which the Treasury Department would have to borrow more and more each year just to be able to pay interest on the money they’ve already borrowed.

To say this is unsustainable would be a massive understatement. And we believe that the Federal Reserve will step in to bail out the government by slashing interest rates to zero (or even negative levels).

Think about it-- if the national debt is $55 trillion, but the interest rate on that debt is literally 0%, then the government’s annual interest bill is zero… essentially saving them $2.5 trillion per year.

Sounds great. But it would come at substantial cost.

For the Federal Reserve to lower rates, it would require them to dramatically increase the money supply, what we typically refer to as ‘printing money’. They’re not actually printing physical currency-- it all happens electronically. But the effect is the same: it’s highly inflationary.

When the Fed ‘printed’ $5 trillion during the pandemic, the US economy saw 9% inflation. So, if the Fed prints $20 trillion or more to push interest rates down to zero, how much inflation will be see then?

No one knows. But it probably won’t be their magical 2% target.

My partner Peter Schiff came on the stage later and made similar comments. And with this inflationary scenario in mind, we sketched out a number of strategies, both personal and financial, that would make sense in the coming years.

It would be easy to study this problem and come away with a sense of dread. After all, a $55+ trillion national debt and $2.5 trillion in annual interest expense looks pretty scary. (Remember, these are based on the government’s own forecasts.)

But if you can understand the trend and its consequences, then you can also take completely rational steps to reduce their impact. That’s the entire concept behind a Plan B.

Peter and I both see overwhelming evidence of substantial inflation in the future. But this means we can prepare for it now, rationally. And we outlined a number of strategies to do so.

One rather obvious one is gold. And we talked about why gold will likely become very important in the future. My personal view is that gold will eventually displace the dollar as the global reserve standard, i.e. how foreign governments and central banks settle their accounts.

With a $55+ trillion projected national debt, and $2.5 trillion in annual interest expense, it’s hard to imagine the rest of the world continuing to allow the US dollar to remain the dominant reserve currency.

And it would be a similar outcome if the Fed ‘prints’ tens of trillions of dollars.

Either way, we see the dollar’s reign as the dominant reserve currency coming to an end over the next decade.

But since no one trusts the Chinese government, or some new ‘BRICS dollar’, gold is the most likely candidate to replace the US dollar since every government and central bank on the planet already owns it… and has confidence in it.

Gold has the added benefit that no single government controls it. And so single country dominates gold production; China, Russia, the United States, Canada, etc. all produce substantial quantities each year.

We later heard from a colleague of mine who runs one of the largest precious metals storage facilities in the world, based in Singapore. He gave me an insider’s view of the gold and silver markets, and sketched out why there may be a shortage coming, especially in silver.

He explained how many of the world’s largest commodities and metals exchanges have seen dwindling stockpiles… while many mines are doing direct ‘offtake’ agreements with large industrial consumers (like electronics companies).

The end result has been a trend of declining physical silver availability, and he believes this will ultimately drive the silver price much higher.

He added that silver is currently quite cheap compared to gold, with the silver/gold ratio currently at about 90:1, versus its historic average over the past several years of roughly 70.

We also had a presentation from a venture capital firm that talked about buying shares of prominent startups (Airbnb, SpaceX, etc.) in the secondary market, i.e. from employees or early-stage investors seeking liquidity. It’s an interesting way to take a discounted position in a high growth business whose value could explode in an inflationary environment.

As one could expect right now, there was also ample discussion about cryptocurrency, including a mini-debate between Peter and our guest Mark Moss, who also spoke at the event. More on that another time.

Perhaps my favorite part was hearing from the former President of Mexico, Vicente Fox. He spoke in the morning about how many short-sighted and dangerous leaders are ruining the world… and I couldn’t agree more.

During a Q&A session later, he told the crowd about the time that George W. Bush came down to Mexico to convince him to support the war in Iraq.

Former President Fox told us that Bush’s team rolled out maps of Iraq onto his desk and pointed at a tiny speck, saying, “There are the weapons of mass destruction.”

Fox stared closely at the table and brought his face closer to where they were pointing, and said, “It looks like mierda de mosca to me…” That’s Spanish for ‘fly shit’.

I want to extend my sincerest thanks to all the members who joined us for a wonderful weekend in Mexico City. The event, the restaurants, the personal discussions with each of you, and the camaraderie were all unforgettable.

And if you’re not currently a member but interested in joining Total Access, you can find out more about it here.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

 [Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/it-looks-like-fly-sht-to-me-150313/

The 7 Most Common Financial Regrets and How to Avoid Them

The 7 Most Common Financial Regrets and How to Avoid Them

MTN Staff • February 28, 2024

We all make money mistakes. But keep them to a minimum by learning from the regrets of those who came before you.

Advertising Disclosure: When you buy something by clicking links on our site, we may earn a small commission, but it never affects the products or services we recommend.

We all have financial regrets. Whether it’s not investing in that successful stock or splurging on a luxury item you didn’t need and couldn’t afford, money mistakes can leave us feeling guilty and frustrated.

But don’t beat yourself up. By exploring the regrets of those who have come before, you’ll avoid making the same mistakes and achieve your financial goals faster.

Following are some of the most common financial regrets, along with potential solutions that will help you avoid them. Not all will apply to you, but some will, so be sure and read the entire list.

1. “I Should’ve Saved More For Retirement”

Having a nest egg big enough to support you through your retirement means saving as much as possible for as long as possible. But it’s also critical to make sure that money is working as hard for you as you did for it.

The best way to do that? Working with an investment and planning professional who can help you grow your wealth.

A Vanguard study found that, on average, a hypothetical $500,000 investment over 25 years would grow to $1.7 million if you manage it yourself but more than $3.4 million if you work with a financial advisor. That’s twice as much! It’s life-changing.

The key is finding the right professional with your best interests at heart. In the past, this wasn’t easy. However, these days, some tools can make a difference.

If you have $150,000 or more in investable assets, Zoe Financial can connect you with rigorously vetted financial advisors. Zoe only works with unbiased fiduciary advisors who will act in your best interest and offer white-glove service. Best of all, finding an advisor through Zoe is complementary; schedule as many initial consultations as you’d like for free.

It only takes a couple of minutes to get personalized advisor matches. Why not click here and check it out right now?

Please carefully review the methodologies employed in the Vanguard white paper, “Putting a value on your value: Quantifying Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha.”

2. “I Should’ve Bought Long-Term Care Insurance”

Here’s hoping your retirement years are active, healthy and vibrant, and that you’re able to function as you always have, right up until the time you shuffle off this mortal coil.

But don’t bet on it. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7 in 10 people who turn 65 today will probably need some kind of long-term care.

To Read More Go to Original Article Here:

https://www.moneytalksnews.com/fast-ways-to-grow-your-nest-egg/

5 Reasons You Should Work for as Long as You Live

5 Reasons You Should Work for as Long as You Live

These benefits might make you think twice about retirement.

Alex Valdes • November 3, 2021

While countless workers dream of retirement, millions more have decided to work full time or part time after age 65: In fact, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that by 2024, there will be about 13 million working Americans age 65 and older.  Working longer might be your best option. Here are several reasons why.

1. Increase financial security

If you’re worried about outliving your savings, working longer is the answer. It can let you:

Wait to collect Social Security. Delaying claiming your benefits until age 70 earns you payments that are much larger than if you had started claiming at or before your full retirement age.

Keep adding to your retirement savings.

Leave your nest egg untouched longer. This means having more money to use later and giving your savings more time to grow and compound.

A couple of years ago, MarketWatch cited these findings from the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“The longer you work, the longer you can add to your retirement savings, the more time they have to grow, and the less you will need when you eventually retire. Throw in the boost to Social Security as well, and ‘delaying retirement by one year is roughly 3.5 times as impactful as saving an additional 1% of wages for 30 years,’ calculated financial researchers recently.”

2. Stay sharp

A job gives you projects to complete, tasks to perform, deadlines to meet and co-workers to team up with.

If all that vanishes in retirement, you may risk losing some mental acuity. One researcher found that people reduced their risk of dementia by 3.2% for each additional year they worked.

Another researcher found that folks who didn’t fully retire and kept working — whether through self-employment, part-time work or a temporary job — enjoyed better mental and physical well-being than those who retired completely.

3. Live longer

To Read More Go to Original Article Here

https://www.moneytalksnews.com/slideshows/why-you-should-work-for-as-long-as-you-live/

Europe Has Precious Few of These “Golden” Opportunities Left

Europe Has Precious Few of These “Golden” Opportunities Left

Notes From the Field By Simon Black/James Hickman

Located in Mediterranean Sea about halfway between Greece and Turkey is the island of Crete... which has attracted human civilization for more than 100,000 years.

Today roughly 600,000 people call the island home. But millions of tourists also visit the popular vacation spot each year. It’s known for it’s beaches, wine, and olive groves.

And at the moment, real estate is fairly reasonably priced.

It’s certainly not rock bottom cheap, but for such a popular destination, home prices could hardly be called expensive.

For example, a modest two bedroom stone villa next to a manicured olive grove with gorgeous views of the sea is listed for around €275,000, or USD $300,000.

image

A place like this on Airbnb could easily fetch $125 to $150 per night and would be fully booked for much of the year.

Now, I’m not here to encourage anyone to buy investment property in Greece. Personally I think there are much better investments right now. But buying property in Greece does have something special going for it that most traditional investments don’t have:

You can become a Greek, i.e. European resident, if you buy property.

Having residency in a foreign country is a completely sensible thing to do. It means that, in almost every case imaginable, you’ll have another place to go if you ever need it.

There are a number of places in the world that allow you to buy property in exchange for legal residency; often these programs are called “Golden Visas.”

But you would only want to go down that path if you actually enjoy spending time in the country.

And for some people, Greece is paradise. The weather, culture, ruins, history, food, etc. appeal to plenty of people who want to spend time or even retire there.

Portugal was the first of several countries in Europe to launch a Golden Visa back in 2012.

But as usual, the deal was too good to last. Swarms of foreigners came in, property prices went through the roof, and locals complained that housing was unaffordable.

So last year, the government of Portugal made their Golden Visa program much, much less attractive, and for the most part, property purchases no longer qualify.

Greece is the best game in town right now as far as European Golden Visa programs are concerned. 98% of the country’s territory, including hundreds of its idyllic islands, remains eligible for a Golden Visa in exchange for a property purchase of just €250,000.

But last year, the government raised the minimum investment threshold to €500,000 in the country’s most sought-after regions, including parts of Athens, Thessaloniki, and the islands of Mykonos and Santorini.

And we wouldn’t be surprised if they restricted the program further— after all, that is what tends to happen to these programs. So if you like the program, it’s better act soon.

Again, buying property under a Golden Visa program doesn’t make sense if you don’t enjoy spending time in the country.

But when it’s possible to get residency (which is a solid step in your Plan B) while generating positive cashflow from your rental income when you’re not using the place, that’s a pretty good deal.

Of course, Greece isn’t the only place in the world you can do this.

Panama still offers residency in exchange for a roughly $300,000 property investment— an amount which still goes a long way in Panama.

Panama’s program has also changed over time, so it also probably won’t last forever.

Then there are places like Mexico where you don’t even have to purchase a property to obtain legal residency; you just need to prove that your income or savings meets a modest threshold.

If someone asked where is the easiest place to gain residency in the Western Hemisphere, I think Mexico ticks that box. Almost anyone qualifies, and it is easy to maintain.

The larger point is that these aren’t radical steps. But they do give you another option.

And in a world full of Inspired Idiots, with so much looming risk and uncertainty, having additional options just makes sense.

But great options don’t last.

We go through periods where one residency may be easy and simple to obtain, and over time those rules change and become more difficult and cumbersome.

So when you find something that works for you, take action and make it happen.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/europe-has-precious-few-of-these-golden-opportunities-left-150301/

5 Financial Tips That Will Help You Make It to the Upper Class

5 Financial Tips That Will Help You Make It to the Upper Class

Heather Taylor   Mon, Mar 18, 2024

If you are in the middle class and attempting to make the leap into the upper class, what steps can you take to realistically reach your financial goals?

Making the following choices can help you reach your goal of being a member of the upper class.

Change Your Money Mindset

Progressing through each level of financial freedom, starting at self-sufficiency and ending with abundant wealth, requires making a shift in your money mindset.

In an interview with Grow (CNBC + Acorns), self-made millionaire Grant Sabatier said money should not be viewed as something you use to buy things. Reaching financial goals, including joining the upper class, requires making good choices with your money. Practicing good saving and investing habits allows your money to work for you.

Moreover, changes in your money mindset should be positive. Danielle Miura, founder of Spark Financials, said if you don’t develop the right mindset, you may drive in the right direction, but never get anywhere.

“If you want to move up the ladder, you have to know what you want and know how to get there,” said Miura. “When we are solution-oriented, we see the benefits of a problem rather than see it as a negative thing. This positive mindset will less likely derail you from your mission when events happen without your control.”

Change Your Financial Habits

As you begin to shift your money mindset and determine better choices to make with your money, you may need to change any financial habits which no longer suit your needs.

Scott Eichler, investment advisor and founder of Standing Oak Advisors, said a common financial habit keeping individuals in the middle class is consistently spending beyond their means. Those seeking to progress to the upper class need to save, invest and keep a low financial overhead.

“The first step to escape the middle class isn’t to invest smartly, it is to invest at all,” said Eichler. “The difference between the wealthy and the middle class is that the wealthy have learned to live below their means. This allows their means to grow and allows them to amass wealth.”

Take On Good Debt

There are two forms of debt: good debt and bad debt. Bad debt includes credit cards, medical loans and payday loans. This debt can be a drag on your finances and make you financially vulnerable.

To Read More Go to Original Article Here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-tips-help-move-middle-150018508.html