KTFA Thurs. Night CC: "FRANK26…..3-14-24……IQD UPDATE: THE SOUND HEARD AROUND THE WORLD"

KTFA

Thursday Night Conference Call

FRANK26…..3-14-24……IQD UPDATE: THE SOUND HEARD AROUND THE WORLD

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NBzmu16aws

KTFA Wed. Night CC: "FRANK26….3-13-24….IQD UPDATE……DR SHABBI WAS A GENIUS !"

KTFA

Wednesday Night Conference Call

FRANK26….3-13-24….IQD UPDATE……DR SHABBI WAS A GENIUS !

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE… ORANGE= IMPLEMENTATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL26G5FMxqE

KTFA Members Thoughts on " official cost of a US dollar will be 1.32 Iraqi dinars instead of 1,320 dinars"

KTFA:

Frank26:  "PARLIAMENT & MALIKI STATE THE OBVIOUS!!! BUT... WE TOLD YOU THERE WAS A REASON FOR 1310!!!"..............F26

Coordination Framework seeks early election to curb al-Sudani's growing popularity: analysis

3/11/2024

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is strikingly popular among the Iraqi people, but the parties who once supported him are organizing to take him down, a report by Medialine suggested.

"Iraq's ruling coalition plans to call for early elections in an attempt to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani," it said.

Al-Sudani belongs to the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties loyal to Iran. But after assuming the premiership, "al-Sudani changed his approach toward the parties and came to disagree with many of their political positions."

A leader in the Islamic Dawa Party, which al-Sudani led until stepping down in 2019, told The Media Line that Coordination Framework parties have been meeting for about five months and plan to call for elections in 2024 or early 2025.

"The plan is to attack the prime minister, belittle his achievements, bring him down popularly, and create more political and economic problems, after which the Iraqi street will go out in demonstrations demanding the overthrow of the government, and then call for early elections, and not nominate al-Sudani again, or grant him any position," the source, who asked to remain anonymous, said.

The source noted that two previous Iraqi prime ministers had lost their positions after the Iraqi public turned against them. "The party fears that Al Sudani may announce the formation of a new political party or alliance, run in the upcoming elections, and become the ruling political majority in Iraq."

The dispute between the Coordination Framework and al-Sudani relates to the prime minister's approval of US Federal Reserve policies to prevent currency smuggling, according to the report. "These measures reduced the circulation of US dollars in Iraq and increased the price of the dollar."

Al-Sudani also implemented several policies that have boosted his popularity. "He increased government salaries and wages for retirees, launched major development projects in the capital and several Iraqi governorates, and announced plans to improve infrastructure and expand the nation’s road network."

According to official statistics, he also significantly reduced unemployment and passed a social security law for workers in the private sector and announced a plan to build 1,000 schools and more than a million residential units.

Since mid-2023, at least 10 countries, including some in the Gulf Cooperation Council, have announced new investments in Iraq. The exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market has also stabilized since November 2023.

A September 2023 opinion poll by the Government Advisory Board found that al-Sudani enjoys a 78% approval rate. Another poll by the nongovernmental Iraq Statistics Organization found him to have an approval rate of 51%, the highest of any Iraqi official.

The Iraqi government is currently weighing the question of changing the currency so that the official cost of a US dollar will be 1.32 Iraqi dinars instead of 1,320 dinars. Implementing such a decision is likely to significantly increase al-Sudani's popularity.

Abbas al-Musawi, adviser to the former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, said in statements to Iraqi media that al-Sudani's achievements are "for everyone", while also saying that al-Sudani will not be reelected as prime minister.

"We are not afraid of al-Sudani. We have our audience, and it is a stable audience," al-Musawi said.

Jaafar al-Khudairi, a member of the National Wisdom Movement, one of the Shiite parties within the ruling Coordination Framework, told The Media Line, "The Dawa Party is trying to state that only its cadres are capable of running the state, but this is not true."

He said that the parliament is discussing a new law regarding elections and that new elections might be called after that law's passage.

Karar Sahib, director of the Iraqi Media Observatory, told The Media Line that al-Sudani has faced constant criticism on Iraqi television.

"There are channels affiliated with the Shiite religious parties, which were the most offensive, as they only showed the negative aspects of the decisions, and tried to exaggerate them," he said.

He said that consistencies across different channels suggest that there may be a single writer behind the criticism.

Sahib defended al-Sudani's achievements. "Iraq is now making an unprecedented renaissance," he said. "It is true that the situation is still below ambition, but it is much better than before."

Muhammad al-Bouflah, a former professor of political science at the University of Baghdad, told The Media Line that the current political climate is a result of the premier's attempt to fracture the coalition. He also said that the Coordination Framework will succeed in holding early elections only if Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr comes out in favor of the plan.

"I do not think that Muqtada al-Sadr will return to trusting the Coordination Framework after they removed him from the political process, and therefore the prime minister will continue to complete his term as president," he said.

Former Member of Parliament Shaiban al-Kilani told The Media Line that the disputes have to do with the different parties' attempts to vie for power.

"The disputes are only over shares of the cake," he said, "and are not disputes over the popularity of the current prime minister."  LINK

Iraq’s ruling coalition may call for early elections

A poll by the nongovernmental Iraq Statistics Organization found Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani to have an approval rate of 51%, the highest of any Iraqi official. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani in Munich, Germany, on February 18 2023. (photo credit: PUBLIC DOMAIN)

By HUDHAIFA EBRAHIM/THE MEDIA LINE

MARCH 10, 2024 14:20

 Iraq’s ruling coalition plans to call for early elections in an attempt to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani.

Al Sudani belongs to the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties loyal to Iran. But after assuming the premiership, Al Sudani changed his approach toward the parties and came to disagree with many of their political positions. 

A leader in the Islamic Dawa Party, which Al Sudani led until stepping down in 2019, told The Media Line that Coordination Framework parties have been meeting for about five months and plan to call for elections in 2024 or early 2025. 

“The plan is to attack the prime minister, belittle his achievements, bring him down popularly, and create more political and economic problems, after which the Iraqi street will go out in demonstrations demanding the overthrow of the government, and then call for early elections, and not nominate Al Sudani again, or grant him any position,” the source, who asked to remain anonymous, said. 

The source noted that two previous Iraqi prime ministers had lost their positions after the Iraqi public turned against them. 

Party fears creation of new political party

“The party fears that Al Sudani may announce the formation of a new political party or alliance, run in the upcoming elections, and become the ruling political majority in Iraq,” the source added.

The dispute between the Coordination Framework and Al Sudani relates to the prime minister’s approval of US Federal Reserve policies to prevent currency smuggling. These measures reduced the circulation of US dollars in Iraq and increased the price of the dollar. 

Al Sudani also implemented several policies that have boosted his popularity. He increased government salaries and wages for retirees, launched major development projects in the capital and several Iraqi governorates, and announced plans to improve infrastructure and expand the nation’s road network.

According to official statistics, Al Sudani also significantly reduced unemployment. In addition, he passed a social security law for workers in the private sector and announced a plan to build 1,000 schools and more than a million residential units.

Since mid-2023, at least 10 countries, including some in the Gulf Cooperation Council, have announced new investments in Iraq. The exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market has also stabilized since November 2023.

A September 2023 opinion poll by the Government Advisory Board found that Al Sudani enjoys a 78% approval rate. Another poll by the nongovernmental Iraq Statistics Organization found him to have an approval rate of 51%, the highest of any Iraqi official. 

Al Sudani has spurned many political allies and opponents. He did not support former Speaker of Parliament Mohamed al-Halbousi and worked for his removal. He also removed most of the leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces—a group of Iranian-backed militias—from government positions.

The Iraqi government is currently weighing the question of changing the currency so that the official cost of a US dollar will be 1.32 Iraqi dinars instead of 1,320 dinars. Implementing such a decision is likely to significantly increase Al Sudani’s popularity. 

Abbas al-Musawi, adviser to the former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, said in statements to Iraqi media that Al Sudani’s achievements are achievements “for everyone,” while also saying that Al Sudani will not be reelected as prime minister.

“We are not afraid of Al Sudani. We have our audience, and it is a stable audience,” al-Musawi said. 

Al Sudani has faced heavy criticism on Iraqi television

Jaafar Al-Khudairi, a member of the National Wisdom Movement, one of the Shiite parties within the ruling Coordination Framework, told The Media Line, “The Dawa Party is trying to state that only its cadres are capable of running the state, but this is not true.”

He said that the parliament is discussing a new law regarding elections and that new elections might be called after that law’s passage. 

Karar Sahib, director of the Iraqi Media Observatory, told The Media Line that Al Sudani has faced constant criticism on Iraqi television. 

“There are channels affiliated with the Shiite religious parties, which were the most offensive, as they only showed the negative aspects of the decisions, and tried to exaggerate them,” he said. 

He said that consistencies across different channels suggest that there may be a single writer behind the criticism. 

Sahib defended Al Sudani’s achievements. “Iraq is now making an unprecedented renaissance,” he said. “It is true that the situation is still below ambition, but it is much better than before.”

Muhammad Al-Bouflah, a former professor of political science at the University of Baghdad, told The Media Line that the current political climate is a result of Al Sudani’s attempt to fracture the coalition.

He also said that the Coordination Framework will succeed in holding early elections only if Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr comes out in favor of the plan. 

“I do not think that Muqtada al-Sadr will return to trusting the Coordination Framework after they removed him from the political process, and therefore the prime minister will continue to complete his term as president,” he said. 

Former Member of Parliament Shaiban Al-Kilani told The Media Line that the disputes have to do with the different parties’ attempts to vie for power. 

“The disputes are only over shares of the cake,” he said, “and are not disputes over the popularity of the current prime minister.”    LINK

DCDriver:  I would just like to clarify something. If the Dinar came out at an exchange rate of 1.32, you would exchange that for .76 USD. That’s where people are getting the .76 cents from. 1.32 is not better than 1.00. There is always a mistake with that calculation IMO

RealtorMC:  From the article: "the official cost of a US dollar will be 1.32 Iraqi dinars instead of 1,320"

Something always happens in the translation, but from how this is written, it sure looks like they're saying 1 IQD will be 1.32 USD

We'll see what they come out when they finally release it. Either way, we win and Jesus always wins!!!

KTFA Monday Night CC: " FRANK26……3-11-24……IQD UPDATE…….WHO’S YOUR DADDY"

KTFA

Monday Night Conference Call

FRANK26……3-11-24……IQD UPDATE…….WHO’S YOUR DADDY

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE… ORANGE= IMPLEMENTATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02YISYsRTUw

KTFA Wed. Night CC: "FRANK26….3-6-24……IQD UPDATE"

KTFA

Wednesday Night Conference Call

FRANK26….3-6-24……IQD UPDATE

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE… ORANGE= IMPLEMENTATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWn_hhqtiXg

KTFA Members "Forex Thoughts and Opinions" Wednesday 3-6-2024

KTFA:

Dano2668:  IQD/USD? We are holding IQD, not converting to IQD. Should the chart not show this? around “.36” when you first open the chart to change the currencies it shows “Euro/USD”, wouldn’t we keep them in the same order and simply change the “EURO” for “IQD”?
…trying to understand what I’m looking at. .36 is still better than .0008 but ?   Thank you for the clarification when you have a moment.

DeepWoodz:    From Investopedia…

”A widely traded currency pair is the euro against the U.S. dollar or shown as EUR/USD. In fact, it is the most liquid currency pair in the world because it is the most heavily traded.1 The quotation EUR/USD = 1.2500 means that one euro is exchanged for 1.2500 U.S. dollars. In this case, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quote currency (counter currency). This means that 1 euro can be exchanged for 1.25 U.S. dollars.”

From forex.com…

“Currency pairs are also known as forex pairs. If you buy a currency pair, you’re buying the base currency and selling the quote currency. The bid (buy price) represents how much of the quote currency you need to buy one unit of the base currency. If you sell the currency pair, you’re selling the base currency and buying the quote currency.”

So currently,(according to forexlive) yes you can buy one dollar for 2.78 dinar. So currently, yes the exchange rate we are looking at is round about $0.35.

Frank made a comment that makes sense. Perhaps they are waiting for supply and demand to bring the rate up equal to or greater than a dollar before releasing it to the citizens. Or perhaps they can change the rate at will. I don’t know. Perhaps they are watching some metrics to ensure the dinars ability to maintain its value on its own. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Harlequinc3:  Deepwoodz, you are correct. 

Think of / as meaning ‘into.’ So IQD ‘into’ USD is what we want to do here. So IQD/USD. 

Then you have to remember reading left to right means ‘multiply’ and reading right to left means ‘divide.’ Think of the / like a fraction.

So to go from IQD ‘into’ USD — IQD/USD — that number is .36. Since you’re reading left to right (IQD into USD) you multiply the .36 by the base (say, $100) which is $36. If you had $100 of dinar it would be worth $36. 1 dinar is worth $.36. 

If you wanted to convert USD into IQD, you’re now reading right to left (divide) — $100/.36 = 277.78 IQD. Meaning, if you had $100 and travelled to Iraq, they would give you 277.78 dinar. 

Another way to think of that is to say it takes 2.77 dinar to equal $1. 

Let's see something. The CBOE is a futures options board -- it's not an exchange rate, it's an options contract based on a future date. It's taking bid/ask prices on the dinar "sometime in the future" (which is anywhere from 1 day to 6 months.) If we knew the date of that contract closing, we'd be able to say, okay, the rate will be XYZ on THAT date. Now, this lends itself to Frank's "second set of books" and a managed float of the dinar. The CBI would know the rate at any specific point in time and use the "sterilized" auctions accordingly.

Notice Toronto SX showing .345 and CBOE is 2.92. As 2.92 goes up, .345 goes down. Therefore, doesn't that imply 2.92 is NOT an exchange rate, but an actual dollar amount and the .345 is the currency pairing's exchange rate? So, IF that .345 were to drop to .31 -- that would make 3.22 the other way. Again, that's NOT the actual rate, I think it's showing the value of the dinar on futures options.

Gotta say, I think this is proof of what Frank's been talking about. Can't be a coincidence this skyrocketing started at 1.31 back in December. What a coincidence.

I'm open to anyone's thoughts on this.

~~~~~~~~~~

Dano2668:  Here's what I found

"What is a Currency Pair?
A currency pair is a unit of measurement in foreign exchange trading. It represents the exchange rate between two currencies. It is always quoted in two parts, with the first currency being the base currency and the second currency being the quote currency.

in the EUR/USD currency pair, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quote currency. This means that you are buying one euro for a certain amount of US dollars. The exchange rate for a currency pair is fluctuating, based on supply and demand in the market.

Now, the tricky thing about Forex can be understanding the order that the pairs are listed in. For instance, there are a host of pairs that the USD is the second currency listed (for example, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD), but there are also many pairs that the USD is the first currency listed (for example, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY).

if you buy a pair, you are buying the Base (first currency listed) and selling the quote (second currency listed), so Buying the EUR/USD means that you are buying Euros and Selling U.S. Dollars–this is the same thing as going to the Exchange and “selling” U.S. Dollars for Euros because you are buying Euros against U.S. Dollars.

So..... "USD" would be listed first! Watch market

~~~~~~~~~~

USMCCret22:  Loving the clarity. Thanks to all who provide info. The Great thing is that we can see a chart to see how things are moving.

Rubberman:  I would like to make an observation regarding the Forex Live thread. I got a little pumped when I read about it so I had to see it for myself. When I opened the chart I changed the default setting to USDIQD (no forward slash). This brings up the equities trading chart. It shows $1 =1309 IQD. It also shows NO volume for trading for as far back as I went.

It shows when the rate went from 1460 to 1310 on 3/21/23. It even shows when it went from 1190 to 1460 back on 12/21/21. The header of the chart is [US DOLLAR / IRAQI DINAR . 1D . ICE]. ICE is the Equities trading.

Now when I changed the header to USD/IQD, I see what all of the fuss is about. However, Lets note the header details: [US DOLLAR / IRAQI DINAR . 1D . CBOE ONE]. CBOE is the Chicago Board Options Exchange. So we are now all looking at the options trading for the IQD.

This chart is interesting as it tells us a lot about what the big boys know.

1. Options trading started on 7/22/2016 at $0.20 
2. There are several jumps and dips since inception and I believe if we could date these to the news (good and not so good) we could follow the charts to our intel.
3. The last jump started on 11/1/23 at $1.11 and until today where it's at $2.88.

What I get from this latest jump is the frenzy (caused by the CBOE members (they're excited)) that may carry over to the equity trading when Iraq goes international. As well as these members know or believe this will come out over $2.88. This also shows us how volatile the Forex may be in the beginning. Looks as if the Wales and sharks got to dinner early. They've been making profit on this since 2016.

Regarding the math, .36 dinar to the dollar is the inverse of 2.78 dollars per dinar. So it takes .36 dinar to buy 1 dollar. If you are to buy dollars.     R'man

************

Clare:  The Central Bank sets the ceiling for cash withdrawals for bank cards outside Iraq

3/6/2024 Follow-ups|..

The Central Bank of Iraq has set the ceiling for monthly and daily cash withdrawals for bank cards outside Iraq.

The Central Bank said in a document, a copy of which was obtained by Jarida, that the ceiling for cash withdrawals outside Iraq is $3,000 or its equivalent in other currencies, and the ceiling for daily cash withdrawals outside Iraq is $500 or its equivalent in other currencies.  LINK

Calandddlq:  IMO, 3K in IQD at $1310, that’s less than $3.00, but at 1:1 that would be more in line with the ceiling placed on card holders of other international currencies.

KTFA Membrs "News and Views" Tuesday 3-5-2024

KTFA:

RE: Monday Night CC:  https://fccdl.in/MeTj1sVDZZ

DeepWoodz:  imo.. thanks for the call Frank. Just a heads up… The listing USD/IQD = 2.81 would mean $1 = 2.81 dinar. Not the other way around. Even if this is true, definitely an improvement worthy of praise.  If you want to see the value of the dinar, simply list it the other direction. i.e….IQD/USD. Which equals .355.    1 dinar =0.35$

Frank26:  TEAMWORK !!! ...........I APPRECIATE YOUR HELP DW !!! TY KINDLY

DeepWoodz:  Something else I’d like to mention since you’re talking. I’ve been using Google the same way for several years now. You can type usdiqd into the search and Google has what I assume is a public rate of around 1310. So I am used to typing it in without the forward slash. 

When I do that in forexlive, I get the 1310 there also. It is interesting that without the /, the Iraqi and American flags pop up beside the pair. With the /, nothing pops up with the pair but the rates are much different (better).   Like you said, something is going on, and I like it.     Imo

Moparman:  I have found two exchanges so far showing the wonky movement of the dinar: the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. The CBOE is explicitly for options contracts. Intercontinental Exchange is still showing the 'official' rate of 1310 (IQD:USD -- the standard notation for ForEx pairing.)

The CBOE (USD/IQD) is showing USDIQD at 2.73 -- this means 2.73 dollars equals 1 dinar. The TSX (IQD/USD) is showing the inverse of that, which means .366 of 1 dinar equals 1 dollar -- .366 equals $2.73 per 1 dinar. They're responding in real time in sync.

As an example, a 25,000 dinar note would be $59,250 at that current rate.

Just thought it might help to post. No, this isn't the rate of the dinar currently -- it's futures options, which can run anywhere from 1 day up to 6 months -- but it absolutely shows something is going on with the dinar skyrocketing.

Addendum (I forgot to mention this): USD/IQD means how many dollars equal a dinar. IQD/USD (notice the inverse, it's flipped) means how many dinars equal a dollar. The 2.73 IS a dollar amount -- the inverse is how you'd calculate the exchange rate ($1 divided by .366 -- which is $2.73.) Someone was mentioning earlier that's not a dollar amount, but the USD/IQD way IS a dollar amount.

*************

Clare:  Dinar and dollar

March 4, 2024   Mohammed Rashid

Most of the crises that accompanied us led to the collapse of our national currency (the dinar) were due to the wars that were forcibly imposed on Iraq by some major powers for many years, and the dollar was the final command that dominated the economic scene and contributed to destroying the value of the Iraqi dinar.

In 1970, a piece of land with an area of ​​(600) square meters in the most prestigious place in our city of architecture was worth (5) thousand dinars, and today the same piece is worth (one billion) and (500) million dinars. This is how playing with the fate of peoples was in order to weaken them and control them. Its human and oil resources.

Today, the economic world is witnessing a qualitative boom in awareness, and very soon it will overthrow the “dollar” and its name will be changed in the coming period to “the dinar” and after a while to “the dollar,” and in the end it will completely lose its value and its printing price will be equal to (a number of cents).

In a televised interview with the “”Iraqi President, Engineer Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani””, he uttered a very important phrase (keep the dinar). Today, through my humble vision, I bear witness that the “”Iraqi dinar will return to its lofty economic value””, away from wars and violence, through a new era that imposes its cultural will in the region and the world.   LINK

DallasDude:  Well, this is as good as it gets as far as articles go...for some reason I am feeling a little more pep in my STEP today..

Moparman:  I believe when forex hits the desired number, we as investors go to the bank. This guy talking is just more proof that we will soon celebrate

************

Clare:  Saleh confirms Iraq's monetary sovereignty and reduces the effects of speculation in the parallel market

3/5/2024

The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, ruled out any effects on the exchange market due to “speculation” of the dollar in the parallel market.

Saleh told Al-Furat News Agency, “The effects on the exchange market no longer represent the real price operations of the basic market forces.”

He stated, “Parallel market operations are nothing but illegal speculative acts that profit from accidental profits on individual or marginal transactions and are undertaken by forces of speculators working against the law. This irregular parallel market has become isolated from the power of the official or regular market since the end of the legalization of economic transactions and the prohibition of... Any transactions in dollars in clearing debts within the national economy between natural and legal persons, as today any internal contracts, transactions or obligations concluded in foreign currency and denominated in a currency other than the national currency are not legally valid.”

Saleh noted that "this confirms the monetary sovereignty of our country through the stability of the national currency and dealing in it alone without the participation of foreign currencies in internal economic operations."

Raghad Dahham    LINK

Clare:  The Sudanese advisor details Iraq's financial situation and addresses exchange rates

3/5/2024   Baghdad

Today, Tuesday, the Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial and Economic Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stated the real growth rate in Iraq’s non-oil gross domestic product, while referring to Iraq’s financial situation.

Saleh said, in an interview followed by “Al-Iqtisad News,” that “the basis comes from the strength of the foreign asset reserves that Iraq possesses, which exceed 100 billion dollars, and they are the cover of the national currency, which means that there is complete coverage of the national currency issued in foreign currency, which provides "Ideal stability for the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, in addition to the fact that these foreign reserves embody Iraq's commercial efficiency, as these reserves cover more than 15 commercial months, while the global standard is only three months."

He added, "We must not forget that the surplus in the current account of the balance of payments relative to the gross domestic product also did not fall below (positive 8%), which is a high indicator that reflects the strength of the external sector in the national economy, that is, its stability and growth."  

He pointed out that "the real growth rate in Iraq's non-oil gross domestic product has touched (6%), and it expresses the growing activities of important sectors, most notably the reconstruction, construction and housing movement, and the development of the transport and digital communications sector, and there is a continuing movement in developing the agricultural sector thanks to government support for crops." We expect Iraq’s grain production in the next few months to reach 6 million tons.”    LINK

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Clare:  Official: The issue of Iraq’s accession to the World Trade Organization is coming soon

3/5/2024

Undersecretary of the Minister of Commerce, Sattar Al-Jabri, considered on Tuesday that the issue of Iraq’s accession to the World Trade Organization was imminent, while he stressed that the current federal government would achieve self-sufficiency and not depend on the importer.

This came during his hosting of a discussion session on the sidelines of the seventh session of the activities of the third day of the Al-Rafidain Forum 2024 - Baghdad, under the title “Humanizing the Global Economy.”

Al-Jabri said during the hosting that the governmental curriculum developed by the Iraqi government is based on a strategy to keep pace with the development taking place in the global economy, as the government signed bilateral international memorandums of understanding in the field of trade and economics.

He stressed that "Iraq is seeking to enter the World Trade Organization, and the issue is coming soon."

The Iraqi government official spoke about the issue of import and export, saying: There is no trade balance between exported and imported materials, as the monetary mass was going to other countries, and this is what the current government seeks to address by relying on self-sufficiency.

 At the beginning of 2024, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced its support for Iraq’s accession to the World Trade Organization, especially after the political obstacles that prevented it were removed.   LINK

KTFA Monday Night CC: "FRANK26….3-4-24…….FOREXLIVE.COM"

KTFA

Monday Night Conference Call

FRANK26….3-4-24…….FOREXLIVE.COM

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE… ORANGE= IMPLEMENTATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L69tLJTL0ZU

Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 IMF Article IV Mission

KTFA:

Clare: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 IMF Article IV Mission

March 3, 2024

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

March 3, 2024: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Jean-Guillaume Poulain, met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman during February 20–29 to conduct the 2024 Article IV consultation. The following statement was issued at the end of the mission:

Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly. Reducing oil dependence and ensuring fiscal sustainability while protecting critical social and investment spending will require a significant fiscal adjustment, focused on controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues. In parallel, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labor force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

The authorities should therefore seek to enable private sector development, including through labor market reforms, modernization of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.     

Economic Outlook and Risks

Growth in the non-oil sector has rebounded strongly in 2023 while inflation receded. Supported by increases in public expenditure and solid agricultural output, real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6 percent in 2023 after stalling in 2022. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5 percent in January 2023 to 4 percent by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation. The current account is expected to have recorded a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP and international reserves increased to US$ 112 billion.

These positive developments were supported by the normalization of trade finance and the stabilization of FX market. After some initial disruptions following the introduction of new anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) controls on cross-border payments in November 2022, the improved compliance with the new system and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s initiatives to cut processing time led to a recovery in trade finance in the second half of 2023. This ensured private sector access to foreign exchange at the official rate for imports and travel purposes.

In the meantime, the fiscal position worsened. Although the expansionary budget was under-executed due to delayed Parliamentary approval, the fiscal balance still declined from a surplus of 10.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to a deficit of 1.3 percent in 2023, due to lower oil revenues and an increase in expenditures by 8 percentage points of GDP, of which salaries and pensions contributed 5 percentage points as the authorities started hiring in line with the budget law.

Overall growth is projected to rebound in 2024 and risks are tilted downwards amid heightened uncertainty. Non-oil growth momentum will continue in 2024. Larger declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts could weigh on fiscal and external accounts. If regional tensions escalate, a disruption of shipping routes or damage to the oil infrastructure could result in oil production losses that could outweigh the potential positive impact of higher oil prices.

 In case of a deterioration in domestic security conditions, this could lead to a decline in business sentiment and suspension of investment projects. Over the medium term, non-oil growth is projected to stabilize around 2.5 percent given existing hurdles to private sector development. Furthermore, vulnerability to oil price declines has increased as higher expenditures are projected to push the fiscal break-even oil price above $90 in 2024. Absent new policy measures, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 7.6 percent in 2024 and widen further thereafter as oil prices are projected to gradually decline over the medium term. As a consequence, public debt would almost double from 44 percent in 2023 to 86 percent by 2029.

Policy Priorities

An ambitious fiscal adjustment would be required to help stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild fiscal buffers, while protecting critical capital spending. Most of the fiscal adjustment would have to come from reducing current expenditure, especially controlling the wage bill by limiting mandatory hiring and gradually introducing an attrition rule. The authorities should also seek to increase non-oil revenues by broadening the personal income tax base and making it more progressive, reviewing the customs tariff structure, and considering new taxes on luxury items.

In parallel, efforts to make revenue and customs administration more efficient should continue. Further savings could be obtained through better targeting social support and increasing cost recovery within the electricity sector. These adjustment measures should provide room for the expansion of the targeted social safety net.

The authorities should also strengthen public financial management and limit fiscal risks. The mission welcomes initial steps towards the establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA), which is crucial to improve cash management. Further progress is needed and close cooperation between the CBI and Ministry of Finance will be essential. The next steps are to define TSA design options and complete the bank account census. In future years, overall ceilings on the issuance of guarantees should be specified in the budget law and be enforced. The mission advise against the use of extrabudgetary funds and highlights potential fiscal risks associated with their use. As a second best, it would be important to ensure the Iraq Fund for Development has appropriate governance arrangements, including governing board independence while ensuring transparency of the Fund’s activities including by publishing its investment plans in the annual budget documentation and restricting its ability to borrow. 

The mission encourages the authorities to build on the CBI welcomed efforts to reduce excess liquidity. The CBI appropriately raised the policy interest rate and reserve requirements, introduced a 14-day CBI bill facility last summer, and scaled back its subsidized lending to the real estate sector. However, monetary policy pass-through has been muted, hampered by large excess liquidity and lack of market incentives in financial intermediaries, especially at state-owned banks. The CBI’s ongoing efforts should be supported by consolidating idle government deposits in a TSA, refraining from procyclical fiscal policy, reducing the reliance on monetary finance, and improving public debt management. In parallel, efforts to develop an interbank market with the help of IMF technical assistance should continue. The mission also welcomes the authorities’ steps to speed up the digitalization of the economy, reduce the reliance on cash and enhance financial inclusion.

Wide-ranging structural reforms are needed to foster private sector development and economic diversification. Iraq needs higher and more sustainable non-oil growth to absorb the rapidly growing labor force, increase non-oil exports and government revenue, and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to oil price shocks. Key reform priorities include:

• Adopting a comprehensive employment strategy aimed at phasing-out mandatory hiring in the public sector, leveling the playing field between public and private jobs, addressing mismatches between educational curricula and the skills needed in the private sector, and strengthening labor market institutions. The strategy should also aim at reducing informality and addressing legal, social, and cultural impediments to women’s participation in the workforce.

• Accelerating financial sector reform to improve access to credit. The authorities are committed to modernizing the banking sector and supporting banks’ ability to secure correspondent banking relationships and have taken steps towards consolidation of small private banks. Efforts to restructure the two largest state-owned banks should intensify, including by expediting certification of past financial statements and implementation of core banking systems, and enhancing corporate governance in line with best practices.

• Implementing a comprehensive pension reform. This is urgently needed to reduce the overall projected fiscal costs of the public pension scheme, better align the benefits and rules across the public and private schemes, ensure adequacy of pensions and intergenerational equity, and increase the ratio of workers participating in the private pension scheme.

• Combating corruption and improving governance, particularly by strengthening the institutional and legal frameworks needed to ensure the independence of the Integrity Commission and the Board of Supreme Audit, enhancing the publication of assets and conflicts of interests declarations for top level officials, and adopting an updated anticorruption strategy. Further, public procurement and business regulations should also be enhanced. The authorities should also continue to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and its effectiveness, including in the banking sector, guided by the priority actions identified in the MENAFATF Mutual Evaluation that will be concluded in May 2024.

• Removing other hurdles to private sector development by reforming the electricity sector to improve efficiency, cost recovery, and reliable access; simplifying procedures for business registration; and upgrading critical infrastructure.

The IMF staff team stands ready to support the authorities in their reform efforts and would like to thank them for constructive and productive discussions during this mission.

IMF Communications Department
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar.....iv-mission

KTFA Sat. Night CC: "FRANK26….3-2-24……IMO…SOMETHING IS GOING ON"

KTFA

Saturday Night Conference Call

FRANK26….3-2-24……IMO…SOMETHING IS GOING ON

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaXtkcR-lzA

KTFA Thursday Night CC: "FRANK26….2-29-24……CALM DOWN"

KTFA

Thursday Night Conference Call

FRANK26….2-29-24……CALM DOWN

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h8DQ25D26g