"Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA Sunday 1-22-2023

KTFA: Vietnam

Henig:  Colours of Vietnamese economy in 2022 and 2023 outlook

January, 22/2023 - 07:36

In 2022, Việt Nam has emerged as a stronger, more resilient economy. It recovered strongly from the low "base" two years ago to shine a light in a world of challenges and uncertainties.

Võ Trí Thành*

Despite the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Việt Nam has seen an economic growth trajectory different from the general picture of the world economy over the past years.

In 2020, when the pandemic started causing devastating effects on a global scale, Việt Nam was among the few economies with positive growth (2.9 per cent) while major economies of the world witnessed a severe recession. In 2021, bucking the world’s strong recovery, the economy’s growth rate only reached 2.6 per cent.

Việt Nam has emerged as a stronger, more resilient economy over the past years. It recovered strongly from the low "base" two years ago to shine a light in a world of challenges and uncertainties.

The country’s gross domestic product grew at 8.02 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace over the past 25 years, backed by retail sales (reflecting final consumption), investment (especially FDI disbursement), and impressively increased exports.

We, however, cannot rest on our laurels. Global economic and political uncertainties, challenges and difficulties that have appeared since the end of the third quarter last year are likely to remain for this year. There are several factors that need to be taken into account.

First of all, aggregate demand is driving growth. Total retail sales last year increased by 19.8 per cent thanks to domestic consumption and tourism exceeding 2019 levels before COVID-19.

This increase will be difficult to maintain for this year when outbound tourism accelerates (actually seen by the end of last year), unless the attraction of international tourism is highly effective (it did not reach the target of attracting five million foreign visitors last year, and was much lower than 18 million visitors in 2019).

In late 2021 and early 2022, Việt Nam had high hopes that public investment would be the driving force for post-pandemic recovery. That's not to mention a two-year Socio-economic Recovery and Development Programme from 2022-2023 with support money amounting up to VNĐ350 trillion (US$15.4 billion), approved by the National Assembly from the beginning of 2022.

Investment disbursement and programme implementation were, however, slow despite a little improvement in the fourth quarter of 2022. By the end of November, less than 60 per cent of the public investment plan had been implemented. About VNĐ60 trillion from the economic recovery and development package was actually spent. Private investment was also stagnating; except for foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement which was quite good, reaching nearly $19.7 billion, an increase of 15.1 per cent compared to 2021.

Building public confidence, promoting public investment disbursement and the Recovery and Development Programme will have great implications for growth in 2023 and beyond.

Commodity exports last year also had a 10.6 per cent jump, fetching more than $372 billion. The downward trend was clearly seen when in the first nine months of the year, exports surged by 17.3 per cent. The significant drop in orders of manufacturing and processing firms in the last three months indicated an uncertain and lacklustre future.

In the last quarter of last year, S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index declined to below the crucial break-even point of 50. In November and December, it hit 47.4 and 46.3 respectively, down from 50.6 in October. This indicates that Việt Nam’s manufacturing sector can be in a contraction.

This is understandable when inflation in key markets, including the US and EU, was stemming consumer spending. In addition, as Fitch Solutions suggests, a likely rebound in demand from China after its zero-COVID policy was eased and the country reopened its economy on January 8 will not be enough to offset the impact of a further weakening in global demand.

Lessons learned during the pandemic such as closely monitoring the situation, being flexible in product transformation, taking advantage of FTAs, diversifying markets/partners, transforming governance methods, even restructuring, still have the same value.

The recovery and development programme has taken into account macro risks (inflation, public debt, financial speculation). But until the second quarter of 2022, the financial-monetary pressure was fully recognised. The pressure had been mounting since the end of the third quarter. Average inflation was low, but inflation still rose rapidly compared to the same period in the previous year. Consumer prices in December increased by 4.55 per cent from a year earlier.

The VND/USD exchange rate in October depreciated nominally by 8.9 per cent. The State Bank of Việt Nam was forced to widen exchange rate band from 3 per cent to 5 per cent and raise the operating interest rate twice, 1 percentage point each time. Little liquidity is left for economic recovery due to maturity mismatch problem in banking system and monetary tightening. Market confidence was eroded when many legal violations were discovered, further heightening stock and corporate bond market volatility.

Looking to the bright side, it can be said that many positive expectations are not baseless.

Many forecast that the world economy and many of Việt Nam's main partners will experience a mild recession. The US economy may have a soft landing and China's economy this year will grow better than last year (4.4 per cent compared to 3.2 per cent) due to easing the zero-COVID policy and stabilising the real estate market.

Financial-monetary pressure from outside is likely to ease. The Fed's policy will be more dovish, both in terms of intensity and frequency of interest rate hikes. High global inflation will peak and gradually decline this year. Liquidity tension in the Vietnamese financial and monetary market at the beginning of December last year was relieved by the central bank lifting the credit room by 1.5-2 percentage points. Monetary policy response led to the ease of pressure in foreign exchange market. At the end of 2022, nominal depreciation of VND/USD exchange rate was down to only about 3.5 per cent.

Disbursement of public investment and the recovery programme is expected to be accelerated. Along with it, substantial improvement in the investment environment and a commitment to structural reform will restore market confidence, thereby boosting investment and consumption.

Last but not least, Việt Nam still has a lot of potentials to attract quality FDI, especially when FDI flows to each country are highly selective and often characterised by comparative advantage, business environment, market connectivity and access (such as FTAs), trust in cooperation, and the guarantee of intellectual property rights.

It is believed that the ratio of realised FDI capital to registered capital increased from 54.3 per cent to 82.3 per cent between 2019 and 2022, and the rising proportion of FDI destined to high-tech and high value-added activities are signs that Việt Nam is capturing an increased part of global value-added manufacturing. This would be great growth momentum for the country in the future by creating jobs and making spillover effects to the whole economy.

In a world full of uncertainties and challenges, it is very necessary to "rethink, redesign, rebuild", and "take actions more decisively, wisely and flexibly” as stated by the Prime Minister.

Hopefully, Việt Nam can continue its path to success in 2023 like what it generally did last year. VNS

*Võ Trí Thành is a senior economist at the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council. A doctorate in economics from the Australian National University, Thành mainly undertakes research and provides consultation on issues related to macroeconomic policies, trade liberalisation and international economic integration. Other areas of interest include institutional reforms and financial systems. He authors Việt Nam News column Analyst’s Pick.   LINK

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Henig:  Industry and trade sector drives development

06:00 | 22/01/2023

(VEN) - Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien, a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, spoke with Vietnam Economic News about the 2022 industry and trade sector achievements and its 2023 plans.

Could you tell us about the industry and trade sector’s 2022 achievements and contributions to Vietnam's economic development?

In 2022, despite major adverse impacts and the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam experienced strong economic recovery and reached its macroeconomic targets.The country maintained macroeconomic stability, ensured major economic balances and reached high gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

The industry and trade sector contributed significantly to those achievements by realizing or exceeding targets set by the National Assembly and the Government. Vietnam reached an Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of nine percent (almost double that in 2021), and a 21-percent increase in total retail sales of goods and service revenues (almost triple the 8-percent target). In the first 11 months of 2022, the country’s budget revenues were 16.1 and 17.4 percent higher than the target and the same period of 2021, respectively.

Industry continues to be a major driving force of the country’s economic growth. Vietnam has maintained its leading position among countries and territories in terms of international trade while ensuring smooth supply chains of goods for the domestic market. The Ministry of Industry and Trade overcame difficulties and suggested solutions to ensure petroleum supply.

Vietnam has renovated trade promotion and improved the operational efficiency of its trade offices abroad.

The industry and trade sector has ensured sufficient power supply for people’s daily life and production in the post-pandemic period, contributing to production resumption and economic recovery.

Implementation of free trade agreements (FTAs) that Vietnam has signed contributed to the country’s foreign trade, while trade remedies reached outstanding achievements, protecting domestic production and markets.

Vietnam reached a record high foreign trade value of US$732.5 billion (up 9.5 percent from 2021) and exported US$11.2 billion more than it imported in 2022 (almost triple that in 2021), contributing to the country’s trade balance, foreign reserve, and interest rate and macroeconomic stability. This is the seventh year in a row that Vietnam has logged a trade surplus.

What were 2022 domestic market highlights?

In the post-pandemic period, the domestic market has recovered quickly and has done better than it did in the pre-pandemic period.

Domestic trade and shopping demand have grown well, while consumption stimulation programs, including trade promotion events, were held simultaneously throughout localities nationwide. Supply-demand connection was implemented efficiently, while goods prices were kept relatively stable, and domestic manufacturers were connected with leading distributors nationwide.

In 2022, Vietnam's e-commerce market value was estimated at US$16.4 billion, accounting for 7.5 percent of the country's sales of goods and service revenues. With an annual increase of 20 percent, Vietnam was ranked fifth among countries worldwide in terms of e-commerce growth by eMarketer.

The industry and trade sector are assisting businesses in different localities to promote supply-demand connections and find new product sources. Many large distribution systems have increased goods stockpiles and launched trade promotion programs to meet the growing demand for goods in the final weeks of the lunar year.

What are the industry and trade sector’s 2023 tasks, targets and solutions?

In the context of the complicated and unpredictable international situation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on the following key tasks.

The ministry will further efficiently follow and realize guidelines and policies of the Party and the State, especially those related to industrial and trade development, renovate and improve institution building (focusing on industrial development and policies), prepare action plans for and realize socioeconomic development and investment environment and national competitiveness improvement, while keeping eye on international and domestic situations to suggest relevant responses.

The sector will accelerate its restructuring based on science, technology, innovation and digitalization, speed up key infrastructure projects, simplify administrative procedures for new production and mining projects, provide suggestions for international economic integration, especially policies on foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction in the industry and trade sector, encourage FDI enterprises to support, transfer technology and share management expertise with domestic enterprises, and form supply chains of materials, improving the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises and their participation in global production and supply chains.

The ministry will consistently and efficiently implement free trade agreements, increase cooperation with potential neighboring markets, and assist localities and businesses to expand and diversify markets, supply chains, imports and exports, and focus on branding and sustainable export development.

Other tasks and solutions include developing domestic trade, combining traditional with modern trade, efficiently exploiting the potential of the country’s 100 million domestic consumers, closely monitor supply, demand, prices and markets of essential commodities, improve market inspection and control, combat smuggling, trade fraud, origin fraud, and unfair competition, better trade remedies, ensure a healthy and equal business and production environment for enterprises, and protect production and consumer interests in compliance with international commitments.

The sector will strengthen administrative disciplines, improve management and administration efficiency, innovate working styles and methods, accelerate administrative reform to encourage investors, producers and traders, promote information technology application, and continue building its e-government.   LINK

Henig:  Company bosses share outlook on economy in 2023

January, 22/2023 - 09:39

2023 is predicted to be a tough year due to various factors like inflation, high interest rates and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. But companies in Việt Nam say they have various strategies in place to overcome the challenges. Việt Nam News reporter Thu Ngân asks senior executives at a number of companies about the strategies and where they think the Vietnamese economy and their own sectors are headed.

2023 is predicted to be a tough year due to various factors like inflation, high interest rates and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. But companies in Việt Nam say they have various strategies in place to overcome the challenges. Việt Nam News reporter Thu Ngân asks senior executives at a number of companies about the strategies and where they think the Vietnamese economy and their own sectors are headed.

Trang Bùi, General Manager Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam

The mild recession in the last quarter of 2022 will continue into the first quarter of 2023. Việt Nam has gone through four real estate cycles, and Cushman & Wakefield anticipates that the real estate industry will go through the current economic downturn more quickly than in previous crises, allowing for recovery in the real estate market in the second half of 2023. In the process of working with domestic and foreign investors, we have noticed there is still strong demand for residential, industrial, retail, and logistics properties.

The major office-based organisations appear to be especially reticent about the hybrid workplace strategy and are taking more time to properly understand its impact on the organisation. Next year we estimate about 140,000 square metres of new grade A & B office space will enter the HCM City market, and this is expected to ease tension related to rents and supply.

The Government is focusing on regulating middle renting and encouraging home ownership in combination with a strong push for social housing. Increasing housing stock in the mid- and lower-priced sectors should promote flow and be a crucial link in the housing stock between social and owner-occupied housing. Therefore, even in 2023 we expect the housing market to remain under tension.

Despite an uncertain economic outlook, retailers continue to seek new physical retail space on sought-after high streets. Investor portfolios are being optimised through relocation and consolidation. This leads to relatively stable retail rents, especially in larger shopping cities. The demand for logistics real estate has remained high despite the current tight market situation and restrictions on new project developments due to the shortage of lands, building materials and administrative support. We forecast the industrial sector will become the next market leader in 2023.

Cushman & Wakefield’s business in Việt Nam has grown considerably in recent years, and 2022 marked our 15th year in Việt Nam.

We have a stable and growing business in Southeast Asia and Việt Nam is an integral part of this growth trajectory. Despite some volatility in the market, our regional and local leaders are excited by the bright prospects of the Việt Nam’s property market.

Kiệt Phạm, Vice President & Country Head of Zoomcar Vietnam

Being open to global trade, Việt Nam's economy is greatly influenced by the international context. There are many forecasts of an economic recession in 2023, but in my opinion we will not quite see a recession next year, though growth will be lower than in 2022. The pandemic is basically under control, and even though the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue to cause unpredictable fluctuations in food and energy prices, we are prepared and have countermeasures in place. Businesses should not lose trust in our economy.

In Việt Nam, we have done very well in controlling the pandemic as well as inflation, thanks to the great efforts from the Government and authorities at all levels. Besides, we have a very strong domestic market with nearly 100 million people, which is a great driving force for the development of the local economy in terms of consumption, investment and tourism. Earlier, Việt Nam's economy was mostly relying on exports and FDI, but that has changed. We are a developing country with a flourishing domestic market, grown and mature local businesses, a young population, and a growing middle class. We can completely rely on our inner strength to grow the economy.

This also bodes well for the services sector. According to market research by Mordorintelligence, Việt Nam's car rental market was valued at US$463 million in 2021 and is expected to reach $884 million in 2027 with a compounded annual growth rate of about 14 per cent in the period from now to 2027. On the other hand, the car ownership rate in Việt Nam is now reaching 23 cars per 1,000 people, which is still low compared to the region, while demand for transportation is high. These are bullish factors for the self-driving car rental industry in Việt Nam.

Despite the great potential, Việt Nam’s car-sharing market also faces challenges. A big challenge is the perception of car owners who still consider their vehicle first and foremost as a great asset that they don’t want to rent. But in fact, an owned car is also a liability, as its value decreases over time. We always tell our hosts that the car is an investment that they should optimise for the best benefit. 

Besides that, the self-driving car rental service relies too much on seasonal occasions and typical use cases of leisure trips due to the legacy of traditional car rental practices such as: high deposits, lengthy and inconvenient renting process, and high pricing.

We believe that overall local consumers still do not fully understand the benefits of car-sharing platforms like Zoomcar, which are convenience, much better security/safety protection, affordability and transparency. In the initial days, the Zoomcar team had to meet and talk to car owners individually, convincing them of the benefits of the platforms for both car owners and users in Việt Nam. Thanks to the non-stop efforts and the team's hard work, we have gradually won the trust of Vietnamese users. 

Despite a difficult 2022, Zoomcar Vietnam achieved the remarkable milestone of closing in on breakeven at the transaction level after just one year of operation.

In our first year, there were zero major accidents/incidents in the tens of thousands of bookings served. We also secured strong positive feedback from guests who love the experience of using Zoomcar as well as from hosts who have been earning extra income from their idling cars.

In 2023, we will continue to stay laser-focused on improving our products and services. We plan to expand to Hà Nội and then Đà Nẵng. This will bring us a step closer to our mission of creating localised solutions that address pressing challenges linked to urban mobility in Việt Nam. Our goal is that by the end of 2023 Zoomcar will be the largest self-driving car rental e-commerce platform in Việt Nam. This is quite a challenging goal, but I strongly believe we can do it.

Dane Fort, CEO of FLG Vietnam

The forthcoming inflationary environment impacts every business like ours in Việt Nam as it puts pressure on our costs and pressure on our members' and potential members' discretionary spending. 

Still, we have seen similar pressures before, and the key to weathering the storm is the same now as it was then: sound financial management practices. We demonstrated this during the global financial crisis of 2008 and more recently during COVID-19 pandemic. Some of our competitors have failed to do so, and we see them starting to falter now - with some of the boutique gyms in the fitness sector proving unable to continue to attract and service their members in this environment, and some of the larger companies in fitness either closing their doors or drastically scaling back expansion plans.  

Conversely, we are launching a new brand which we think fits the tighter times well with California Active. It replaces our Jetts brand with an affordable entry point to Cali's services as well as an upgrade path to broader Cali membership, and this is one key way that we are adapting our business to ensure we have competitive service offerings for the market against a backdrop of reduced spending and higher inflation.  

In the end, the key to success in 2023 is going to be focusing on what we have always done best: providing an amazing member experience nationwide to people looking to improve their health and improve their lives - and doing so at a scale, which no one else in our industry can rival.

— VNS   LINK

Some "Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA 1-21-2023

KTFA: Vietnam

Henig:  Vietnam’s top 10 socioeconomic developments in 2022

06:00 | 21/01/2023

(VEN) - Vietnam overcame difficulties induced by COVID-19 and achieved significant economic growth in 2022. Vietnam Economic News has compiled a list of the country’s 10 most outstanding socioeconomic developments of the year.

1. GDP grows an estimated 8.02 percent – a 10-year record

According to a General Statistics Office of Vietnam report, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached US$409 billion, an estimated increase of 8.02 percent compared with 2021 – a record annual GDP growth of the 2011-2022 period.

The economy grew in all three major sectors: agro-forestry-fishery: 3.36 percent; industry and construction: 7.78 percent; and services: 9.99 percent.

2. Inflation kept under control

While the world was struggling with growing inflation, Vietnam successfully curbed the domestic inflation rate at lower levels compared with most other countries in the region. The consumer price index (CPI) grew 3.15 percent compared with 2021, with the core inflation rate curbed at 2.59 percent (the National Assembly-set target was below four percent).

Vietnam’s inflation control efforts were praised by international organizations and experts.

3. FDI attraction reaches nearly US$27.72 billion

Vietnam attracted nearly US$27.72 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI) through new projects, capital increases of ongoing projects, capital contributions and stock purchases by foreign investors.

Foreign investment covered 19 of 21 sectors of the Vietnamese economy, focusing on processing and manufacturing industries, real estate, and electricity generation and distribution. Currently, 108 countries and territories invest in Vietnam. Singapore takes the lead with nearly US$6.46 billion, accounting for 23.3 percent of total FDI in Vietnam; the Republic of Korea ranks second with nearly US$4.88 billion; and Japan ranks third with more than US$4.78 billion.

4. Major policies foster economic growth

Resolutions adopted by the Communist Party of Vietnam had a significant impact on Vietnam’s socioeconomic situation.

These include Resolution 18-NQ/TW on further efforts to accelerate institutional and policy improvements, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of land use management, and striving to turn Vietnam into a high-income developed country; Resolution 19-NQ/TW on agricultural and rural development until 2030, with a vision to 2045; Resolution 20-NQ/TW on further innovation and development of the collective economy in the new period with a vision to 2035 and 2040; and Resolution 06/NQ-TW regarding sustainable urban development until 2030, with a vision to 2045.

5. Import-export value hits record, with strong trade surplus increase

Total import-export value reached an estimated US$732.5 billion, an increase of 9.5 percent compared with 2021. The export value was estimated at about US$371.5 billion, up 10.6 percent (the target set by the National Assembly and the Government was eight percent).

The list of goods with export value exceeding US$1 billion each consisted of 39 products, an increase of four products compared with 2021. These included nine products with export value of more than US$10 billion each, an increase of one product compared with 2021.

Trade surplus reached US$11.2 billion, marking 2022 as the seventh consecutive year of Vietnam’s trade surplus.

6. Vietnam ranks fifth among e-commerce markets worldwide

The Vietnamese e-commerce market continued to develop and has become an important distribution channel. In 2022, the market value reached an estimated US$16.4 billion, accounting for 7.5 percent of total consumer goods and services’ sales nationwide. With an annual growth rate of 20 percent, Vietnam was listed by eMarketer among the world’s five fastest-growing e-commerce markets.

7. Outstanding results of external relations

This was a busy year for Vietnam’s external relations, after two years of interruptions due to COVID-19. Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong’s visit to China in late October following the success of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was of special significance. President Nguyen Xuan Phuc visited Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, and attended APEC 2022 meetings in Thailand. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh visited the US, Cambodia, European countries, and attended ASEAN summits and related summits in Cambodia. National Assembly Chair Vuong Dinh Hue visited Laos, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand. External relation activities continued strengthening Vietnam’s position and role in the international arena.

8. Effective control of COVID-19

This was considered the most impressive success resulting from major efforts of the Vietnamese people, the political system and particularly the health sector. The government changed its pandemic prevention policy toward safe, flexible adaptation to and effective control of COVID-19, aiming to protect at a maximum level people’s health and minimize new infections and deaths. It also promoted socioeconomic recovery and development and ensured social security.

9. Vietnam hosts SEA Games 31

The 31st Southeast Asian Games (SEA Games 31) took place in Vietnam from May 12-23, 2022, following a delay due to COVID-19. The images of stadiums and sporting events attended by mass audiences impressed athletes and international friends.

The Vietnamese delegation came in first, with 205 gold medals, 125 silver medals and 116 bronze medals, making it the event champion for the first time in 19 years. The number of gold medals won by the Vietnamese delegation doubled that of the delegation that ranked second, Thailand. Vietnamese athletes broke SEA Games records in swimming, bike racing, and weightlifting. Both men and women’s football teams won gold medals.

10. Vietnam reopens for domestic, international tourism

On March 15, 2022, Vietnam reopened its borders to resume tourism after almost two years. The United Nations World Tourism Organization listed Vietnam among the countries with the most open tourism policies.

The Vietnamese tourism sector has prepared to serve visitors and adapted to post-pandemic changes in demand.  LINK

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Henig:  AMRO revises Việt Nam's 2023 GDP upward despite regional slowdown

January, 21/2023 - 07:54

In its January update, AMRO estimated ASEAN+3 growth for 2023 at 4.3 per cent, down from the 4.6 growth in the previous projection.

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s GDP growth in 2023 has been adjusted upward to 6.8 per cent in the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)’s January Update, up from 6.5 per cent in its October report.

This is in contrast to its downward projection for most economies in ASEAN+3.

In its January update, AMRO estimated ASEAN+3 growth for 2023 at 4.3 per cent, down from the 4.6 growth in the previous projection. The region’s growth in 2022 was also revised down from 3.7 per cent to 3.3 per cent. The downward projection is mainly due to the continuing weakness of Plus-3 economies, especially China, where growth has become much weaker.

China’s 2022 growth was estimated at 3 per cent and is forecast to grow by 5 per cent in 2023 (down from the 5.3 per cent in October projection).

Việt Nam’s economy meanwhile was projected to expand 8 per cent in 2022.

The 2023 growth outlook for ASEAN is forecast down from 4.9 per cent to 4.8 per cent, a slowdown compared to the 5.6 per cent growth of 2022.

According to AMRO, the drag on economic activity from aggressive monetary policy tightening in the United States and the Eurozone will be felt more fully this year, translating to softer export orders for the ASEAN+3.

However, the ongoing resumption of tourism — especially with the return of Chinese tourists — will provide a much-needed boost to growth.

“With recession risks still haunting the United States and Europe, China’s economic reopening cannot come at a better time for the region,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. “China’s stronger economy will support regional activity while the border reopening will boost intraregional tourism.”

China’s economy is expected to rebound strongly, reflecting the removal of containment measures and reopening of its economy.

Inflation is moderating across ASEAN+3, tempered by sustained policy tightening by central banks and easing global supply chain bottlenecks. Oil prices have reverted to almost pre-pandemic levels, reflecting weaker global demand. Prices of key agricultural commodities — although remaining relatively high due to the prolonged war in Ukraine — have fallen from their 2022 peaks.

Việt Nam’s inflation is predicted to come in at 3 per cent in 2023 (down from 3.2 per cent in the previous forecast). Inflation for the ASEAN+3 region was revised down from 6.3 per cent in 2022 to 4.5 per cent in 2023, and for ASEAN at 5.4 per cent in 2023 from 7.7 per cent in 2022.

— VNS   LINK

Henig:  Đà Nẵng to build duty-free zone

January, 21/2023 - 09:36

Đà Nẵng’s people’s committee has submitted a plan for a duty-free zone.

ĐÀ NẴNG – Đà Nẵng’s people’s committee has submitted a plan for a duty-free zone.

The area will cover 151ha at the end of Bà Nà-Suối Mơ Road – 30km southwest of the centre and near the Bà Nà Hills resort.

The city’s planning and investment department said the zone, which was sent to the ministry of planning and investment for review, would include a trade complex, with entertainment sites, duty-free shops, a logistics hub, warehouses, healthcare services, an R&D centre, international education centre, medical school and exhibition centre.

It said the project would be completed by 2027.

The department said the free-duty zone would attract investors with land-rent exemptions for three years of construction, and another 11 years land-rent free in the operation of investment projects.

Investors would also enjoy a 10 per cent tax rate for 15 years, a four-year tax exemption and a 50 per cent cut in income tax for the following nine years.

Despite ranking top in the Provincial Sustainable Development Index in 2021, Đà Nẵng is still seeking economic growth and investment in the post-COVID-19 period as the city’s key tourism industry has not yet fully recovered.

The city said the zone would be a magnet for global trade and service providers and developers.

The first downtown duty-free shop was launched at the beach-front Crowne Plaza Đà Nẵng resort in Ngũ Hành Sơn District at the end of last year.

The city plans to raise more than VNĐ7.9 trillion ( $316 million) for public investment projects in 2023.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Developing mechanical industry top priority for VN

January, 20/2023 - 14:43

Developing the country's mechanical industry sector is a top priority for Việt Nam in the coming decades, said industry insiders and experts.

HÀ NỘI Developing the country's mechanical industry sector is a top priority for Việt Nam in the coming decades, said industry insiders and experts.

While the sector's technical capacity has made leaps and bounds in recent years, gradually becoming a major supplier for highly advanced domestic industries, a key issue remained as it has not been able to utilise economies of scale to bring down costs and further integrate into the global supply chain.

Đỗ Quang Hòa, leader of a mechanic team in one of many factories located in the northern industrial hub of Bắc Ninh Province said his company's biggest fear is not having enough work.

It usually takes a huge amount of investment to build a factory, set up machines, and train skilled mechanics, he said. Not having enough work makes everything expensive for the company and hurts its ability to compete in the market.

In addition, small and medium-sized companies such as Hòa's were almost entirely dependent on larger companies. It has resulted, according to him, in mechanical firms willing to sell at lower-than-cost prices just to maintain production.

He said it's likely the single most important hurdle to overcome for hundreds of mechanical companies in Việt Nam, holding them back from reaching their full potential.

Hòa's opinions echoed a report on the sector by the Ministry of Industry and Trade last year, in which the ministry highlighted major barriers to overcome for mechanical firms including higher set-up costs, longer cashflow cycles, advanced technologies, and very high cost of training.

In addition, the sector's products were typically difficult to sell compared to consumer products. The difficult environment resulted in just a handful of Vietnamese brands, which were mostly small-to-medium in size, unable to compete with larger international brands even with home-ground advantages.

The ministry said the sector's major weaknesses were subpar product quality and a lack of core technologies. In the absence of large mechanical firms, capable of leading and improving the industry's standards, Vietnamese firms have been falling behind in the research and development game, leaving them entirely dependent on foreign inventions and technologies.

According to the ministry, the country's domestic mechanical firms only accounted for 32 per cent of Việt Nam's market share. In addition, they accounted for even less share in the sector's output value at just 18 per cent and declining by the year, showing major shortcomings and limitations in their operations.

To add insult to injury, the government has been slow, or inefficient, in implementing support policies to speed up the industry's growth, according to the Vietnam Association of Mechanical Industry (VAMI).

VAMI urged the government to play a more active role in supporting Vietnamese firms including lowering the barrier of entry to participate in domestic projects and setting a quota for made-in-Vietnam products, to be used in such projects.

"We have observed a lack of collaboration and connection among governmental ministries, science and technology institutes, and universities in training a skilled workforce for the sector." said a spokesperson from VAMI.

The association said while many State-owned companies enjoy key advantages such as infrastructure, financial capital and skilled workers, management has often been found inadequate, causing waste and inefficiencies.

Meanwhile, private-sector companies lacked a clear development path and often failed to communicate or collaborate with their peers, leading to several firms investing in producing the same products, with little added value to compete with imported rivals.

Huỳnh Quang Nhung, deputy director-general of THACO Industries, one of the country's leading mechanical companies, said most Vietnamese firms have not met the standards to supply parts to major manufacturers operating in Việt Nam.

"Our approach to solving this issue is to actively seek capable partners, which allows us to not have to invest in parts they can already make. Our job is to build a strong brand, find new markets and come back to work together with them to grow." Nhung said.

VNS   LINK

KTFA Members "News and Views" Saturday PM 1-21-2023

KTFA:

Henig:   Installing sonar devices between the governorates to monitor dollar smuggling and currency speculators

Today, 22:59  Baghdad - IQ  

The Ministry of Interior announced, on Saturday, the installation of "sonar" devices on the external roads linking the Iraqi governorates to monitor the smuggling of foreign currency.

The ministry said, in a statement received by IQ NEWS, that "the Ministry of Interior, in coordination with the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, has begun installing sonar devices on the external roads that connect the provinces."

She added that the aim of this "is to monitor cases of smuggling of foreign currency and to hold speculators accountable according to the law."   LINK

Henig:  IMO: Well, THAT'S an interesting development. Electronic financial platform, you say? Iran trading with Iraq on an electronic trading platform to trade currency? Huh.

Iran finds an "exit" for hard currency with Iraq and launches the first deal worth 300 million euros

 Baghdad today - follow-up

 Today, Saturday, the Central Bank of Iran revealed the launch of an electronic platform that allows it to deal financially with Iraq, as it confirmed the sale of 300 million euros of its funds deposited in Iraq through this platform.

Iranian media quoted a statement by the Central Bank of Iran, which was followed by "Baghdad Today", in which it stated that "after conducting successful monetary and banking negotiations with the Central Bank of Iraq, new breakthroughs occurred regarding the offering of hard currency on the electronic" NIMA" platform.

He added, "So that, after a year of hiatus, today (January 21, 2023), 300 million euros were offered from the Central Bank of Iran's balances deposited in Iraq through the platform, and it was sold directly, and that this process will continue in the coming days."

The statement of the Central Bank of Iran confirmed that "through this breakthrough, merchants can accelerate the pace of commercial and banking operations through the funds in Iraq in order to cover imports of basic commodities quickly and appropriately."

And she indicated that "the breakthrough in benefiting from the balances of the Central Bank of Iran in Iraq occurred following successive visits by a commercial-Iranian bank delegation to Iraq in recent days and negotiations with the Iraqi Central Bank and one of its affiliated commercial banks."

It is noteworthy that the "Nima" platform is dedicated to displaying foreign currency remittances to exporters and selling them to importers.  LINK

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Clare:  Al-Sudani: We are supervising the completion of a “different” budget, and we continue to support the restoration of the exchange rate

1/21/2023   Baghdad –

Prime Minister Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani confirmed, on Saturday, his supervision of the completion of the budget law, while indicating that the government continues to support the Central Bank to restore the exchange rate of the dollar to the official rate.

Al-Sudani said at the official memorial ceremony "on the occasion of the martyrdom of Sayyid Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim": "We remember today the martyrdom, but with the taste of victory that was achieved over terrorism, and we remember the pure blood, with the taste of security and stability that those sacrifices lavished."

He added, "Today we are nearing the completion of the draft budget law, which is different from previous years, and it is the first time that the budget law revolves around the government program."

He continued, "We have taken a number of bold decisions to support and stabilize the Iraqi dinar, and we warn those who try to exploit the crisis and play on people's needs."

He pointed out that "the exchange rate did not rise as a result of a government decision, but rather because there were those who took advantage of the temporary conditions and turmoil in the markets that are not yet familiar with dealing with the new banking mechanisms, which will preserve the funds, which is an important step on the path to economic reform."

And he added, "We affirm the priority of combating corruption, and our government continues to assign it to the judiciary and the competent authorities to pursue those wanted and work to recover the looted funds."

He continued his speech:

The Prime Minister stressed that "all the active forces need to move away from disagreements and tensions that are no longer an appropriate means to correct the course of the political situation in Iraq," stressing: "We will not be against opposition opinions whose goal is to correct the imbalances in the body of the state. The opposition voice that bears national responsibility does not less important than the backing vocal.

He concluded by saying, "We will continue to work, as long as there are brave and serious leaders in it, and as long as our rational authority sponsors its path with its wisdom, and as long as our security forces, of all kinds, are capable and empowered, mobilizing their determination from the sacrifices of the martyrs."    LINK

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Clare:  Central Bank: The decision to activate electronic payment includes the government and private sectors

1/21/2023  Baghdad –

The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed, on Saturday, that the use of electronic payment tools will be circulated in the government and private sectors in a binding manner.

The bank's deputy governor, Ammar Hamad Khalaf, said, "The cabinet's decision to activate electronic payment in all joints aims to reduce the use of cash and increase dealing with funds electronically through the use of cards, and it is an important complement to the salary settlement project, which began to be implemented several years ago."

He added, "The decision will enable the bank to implement a mechanism that enables employees to receive their salaries through the payment cards currently used, such as the MasterCard, and it is filled into their bank balance without the need to receive cash."

Khalaf indicated in an interview with the official news agency, which was followed by Mawazine News, that "payment via electronic devices will reduce cash circulation, and it is better in terms of saving money and safer than transferring it."   LINK

KandG:  This is a packed one that may even give the "ole timers" a well deserved pick me up - All 3 laws in one article due for passage! Let's get'r done!!!  IMO

Clare:  Parliamentary energy: Approving the oil law soon will be a solution to the disputes between Baghdad and Erbil

1/21/2023

A member of the Oil, Gas and Natural Resources Committee, Zainab Juma Al-Mousawi, revealed today, Saturday, that "there is a parliamentary effort to pass the oil and gas law soon."

Al-Moussawi said, in a statement received by the Euphrates News Agency, that: "The adoption of the law soon in the House of Representatives will be a radical solution to the dispute over oil wealth between Baghdad and Erbil, and it will regulate all energy files throughout Iraq."

Al-Moussawi added: "There are understandings between Baghdad and Erbil to approve the oil and gas law to take advantage of paragraphs that support the exclusive powers of the federal government regarding oil and gas in Iraq."

And the Parliamentary Legal Committee had announced that"the first laws that will be discussed are the financial budget law for the year 2023 as soon as it arrives from the government, the draft oil and gas law and the draft social security law."

Raghad Daham    LINK

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Clare:  How can fraud trading companies be avoided in Iraq?

1/21/2023

Finding licensed trading companies in Iraq is not as difficult as many Iraqi traders think, especially beginner traders in this field, but with the presence of many fraudulent trading companies within this market, traders may face a real problem in ascertaining the credibility of the trading company they intend to dealing with it.

In any case, the trading companies licensed in Iraq  that are honest can be distinguished from those that can be false with ease according to a set of specific criteria, and this is exactly what we will learn about in the next report, where we will discuss together how to avoid fraudulent trading companies in Iraq? So stay with us.

Licensed trading companies in Iraq 

The Iraqi trading market contains many trading companies, some of which are local, and some are global, but we always recommend dealing with international trading companies that provide their services to the Arab market, and one of the most important international trading companies in Iraq, which provides its services directly to the Iraqi market Al-Arabi is AvaTrade.

About Ava Trade Company for trading in Iraq 

It is one of the best trading companies that allows you to trade on the global stock exchange inside your home in Iraq, where you do not need to trade with it except to open an account with it for an amount not exceeding $ 100, and you can also try the demo account with it before paying any money in order to find out if it is the platform are you looking for? And that's before you start with it for real, and pay any money.

AvaTrade has the following advantages.

Licensed by the Abu Dhabi Global Market Authority (ADGM).

It is regulated by the Australian Financial Services Commission (ASIC).

Trusted by many global financial licensing authorities.

It has a turnover of more than 60 billion pounds per month.

Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF).

Member of the Investment Commission of Canada (IIROC)

Provides Islamic accounts for Iraqi and Arab traders free from usurious transactions.

It offers free demo accounts to practice on its platform before starting financially with it.

It has very strong customer service support in 12 different languages, including Arabic.

Support is available around the clock.

It offers MetaTrader 4, 5 platform to trade with, and it is one of the best trading platforms that you can find in the market, and it is smooth to deal with whatever device you are using, computer, tablet, or even your smart mobile phone.

It enables you to trade with it in more than 250 trading instruments with a wide variety of assets.

How can fraud trading companies be avoided in Iraq? 

In general, any trading market in which many fraudulent companies can be found, whether we are talking about the Iraqi trading market, or other global trading markets, but these companies are highly exposed, and they can be identified through the following details.

Fraudulent trading companies make fake offers with imaginary profits, and entice those wishing to trade with them with those profits.

The imposter trading companies do not have a physical headquarters on the ground in any country around the world, but only practice their work electronically.

Quotation trading companies are not licensed by any of the global financial licensing companies.

Fraudulent trading companies have trading platforms that are difficult to use, and are not developed.

Fraudulent trading companies have account managers who have unlimited powers.

Trading companies licensed in Iraq to trade in stocks and forex 

There are many Iraqi stocks that can be traded through trading companies licensed in Iraq, which are also listed on the local Baghdad Stock Exchange, including the following.

Bank of Baghdad share (BBOB)

Gulf Bank share (BGUC)

Share of Baghdad Gas Company (IBSD)

As for the global stock market, as well as the forex market, you can trade on it easily with any international trading company, especially the Ava Trade company, which offers many advantages specifically for the Iraqi market, and offers highly developed trading platforms that will enable you to trade in the stock market and the forex market in every way. smoothness.

These were the most important details related to the licensed trading companies in Iraq, and how they can differentiate between them and the fraudulent trading companies.   LINK

Friday "Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA 1-20-2023

Vietnam:

Henig:  Việt Nam remains good business partner of Hong Kong: official

January, 20/2023 - 12:10

Việt Nam is always a very good business partner of Hong Kong (China), and the two sides have maintained effective trade and investment ties over the past years, according to Hong Kong’s Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau. (fifth, right) and representatives from Việt Nam and Hong Kong attend the Vietnam and Hong Kong - Guangdong - Macao (China) partnership business forum. Photo courtesy of the Hong Kong Commerce and Economic Development Bureau

HONG KONG – Việt Nam is always a very good business partner of Hong Kong (China), and the two sides have maintained effective trade and investment ties over the past years, according to Hong Kong’s Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau.

Trade between Việt Nam and Hong Kong grew 11.8 per cent each year during the 2017-2021 period. In 2021 alone, the value reached 220 billion HKD (US$28.1 billion), up 19 per cent year-on-year.

Hong Kong is the fifth largest trade partner of Việt Nam, while Việt Nam is the seventh largest trade partner of Hong Kong, and the second biggest among the ASEAN countries, only after Singapore. The two-way trade in the first half of 2022 stood at 125 billion HKD, a year-on-year rise of 21 per cent.

Algernon told the Vietnam News Agency that his recent visit to Việt Nam for a workshop on business cooperation between Việt Nam and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China was a very “eventful and fruitful journey”.

While in Việt Nam, he met the Vietnamese Minister of Planning and Investment, the Minister of Science and Technology and the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade to seek measures to boost the bilateral cooperation in the time ahead.

Algernon and his entourage of more than 60 representatives from Hong Kong enterprises had effective working sessions with the Hong Kong China Chamber of Commerce and the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, he said.

He emphasised that Hong Kong businesses are very interested in investment in Việt Nam and Vietnamese firms also expressed their interest in investment in Hong Kong.

During his stay in Việt Nam, Algernon also visited an industrial park in the northern province of Hưng Yên and had a “good discussion” with local authorities about cooperation opportunities.

Algernon said he saw substantial opportunities for trade and investment cooperation between the two sides in the time ahead.

Việt Nam is a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government has applied for  accession into the RCEP since early 2022, he said, explaining that the membership would help to further facilitate the trade between Hong Kong and the RCEP countries.

According to him, Hong Kong serves as a platform to get into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and getting accession into the RCEP will facilitate the members to use Hong Kong as a platform to do business, both in Hong Kong and in the Greater Bay Area as well.

Highlighting Hong Kong’s advantages, Algernon said they would help Việt Nam and other RECEP countries do business in the region.

VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Central bank seeks to contain inflation at 4.5 per cent

January, 20/2023 - 11:28

The central bank has said it will keep monetary policy flexible to ensure inflation does not exceed 4.5 per cent this year and monetary and foreign exchange markets remain steady.

HCM CITY — The central bank has said it will keep monetary policy flexible to ensure inflation does not exceed 4.5 per cent this year and monetary and foreign exchange markets remain steady.

The credit growth quota for the year is 14-15 per cent, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said in a directive, adding that its aim is to ensure liquidity for all lenders.

It requires them to keep their bad debt ratio to below 3 per cent and ensure management and transparency in operations.

Banks should promote non-cash payments and digital transformation to improve the quality of their products and services and prevent money laundering, it said.

Under the directive, the Bank for Social Policies will further reduce interest rates to support businesses in priority sectors.

Cross-ownership in banks

The directive requires the banking sector to continue with the restructuring of weak credit institutions.

The SBV said it would also improve the legal framework for handling bad debts and preventing cross-ownership in banks, explaining it is vital to prevent cross-ownership and governance abuse by major shareholders to manipulate them.

Analysts have repeatedly warned that cross-ownership between real estate firms and banks could cause the latter to give the former priority in lending.

This could pose risks to the financial system and the entire economy, they have warned.

The SBV has since October last year placed the HCM City-based Saigon Commercial Bank under special control due to its multiple problems related to cross-ownership and abuses by major shareholders.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Foreign investment flow into Việt Nam to reach $36-38 billion in 2023

January, 20/2023 - 11:25

Disbursement of foreign investment this year is expected to hit $22-23 billion, Deputy Director of the FIA Đỗ Văn Sử told baodautu. 

HÀ NỘI — Foreign investment inflows into Việt Nam will likely reach US$36-38 billion in 2023, according to the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment. 

Disbursement of foreign investment this year is expected to hit $22-23 billion, Deputy Director of the FIA Đỗ Văn Sử told baodautu. 

The opening of China's economy might affect Việt Nam's foreign investment attraction, Sử said, adding that China remained the leading investment destination in the region, so when they opened up, capital would flow into this market while that to Việt Nam and other economies in the region would be limited. 

On the contrary, the investment capital movement of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan from mainland China would be accelerated. This shift would be accelerated until 2025, and Việt Nam would be a preferred investment destination for investors, Sử told the online newspaper.

Currently, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan (China) are Việt Nam's major sources of foreign investment and they have constantly increased their investments in Southeast Asian countries. 

According to the FIA, essential factors for FDI to continue to prosper in 2023 included economic growth results in 2022, endless efforts of authorities in improving the business investment environment, creating trust with investors and effectively exploiting the advantages of free trade agreements.

Người lao động (Labourer) newspaper cited Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyễn Chí Dũng as saying that Việt Nam had adopted a selective approach to attracting foreign investment inflows which would  contribute to the country's implementation of the sustainable development strategy.

Priority would be given to projects using new and green technologies, with high added value, modern corporate governance, high spillover effects, ensuring technology transfer and being integrated with global supply and production chains, Dũng said. 

To lure more foreign investment, Dũng emphasised the importance of developing innovation and financial centres at the regional and international levels, creating a driving force for socio-economic development in the coming period. 

He added that stabilising the macro-economy, improving infrastructure and the quality of human resources would be also needed. 

Economic expert Lê Đăng Doanh told the Labourer that Việt Nam needed to have a comprehensive assessment of the trend of shifting foreign investment inflows soon so that the country could have more appropriate and effective policies to attract this capital flow.

Accelerating administrative reforms, improving the investment environment, and ensuring policy stability would make foreign investors feel secure when they pour capital into Việt Nam.

Good news

Since the beginning of this year, Việt Nam saw good news in foreign investment attraction as nearly $900 million in foreign direct investment (FDI) has been registered in the northern province of Bắc Giang. 

On January 7, China’s Yadea Group said it would invest $100 million in a factory to manufacture and assemble electric motorcycles with an expected capacity of about two million vehicles per year in the province's Tân Hưng Industrial Park. 

Covering an area of 23.2ha, the project will be implemented in the second quarter of 2023. 

Earlier on January 2, Bắc Giang Province granted an investment certificate to Singapore’s Ingrasys Pte Ltd, the Fulian precision technology factory project investor signed an MoU with Chinese investor Hainan Longi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd on a project to produce solar panels.

Both projects will be conducted from the first quarter of 2023, with combined registered capital of about $761 million.

A bright spot in 2022

Last year, foreign investment in Việt Nam remained a bright spot on Việt Nam's economic picture, despite experiencing a year-on-year decrease in value, thanks to its disbursement reaching a five-year high.

Data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment showed as of December 20, there were 2,036 newly-registered foreign direct investment (FDI) projects worth $12.45 billion, up 17.1 per cent year-on-year in the number of projects, but down 18.4 per cent in value.

In addition, 1,107 projects had their capital adjusted, with a total amount of $10.12 billion, up 12.4 per cent and 12.2 per cent year-on-year, respectively.

Capital contributions and share purchases (foreign indirect investment or FII) were worth $5.15 billion, down 25.2 per cent. This figure made total foreign investment in the country in 2022 top $27.7 billion. 

Meanwhile, FDI disbursement in 2022 hit nearly $22.4 billion, up 13.5 per cent year-on-year, making it the highest amount in the past five years, the General Statistics Office (GSO) reported.

Accumulated to December 20, 2022, the whole country was home to 36,278 valid projects with a total registered capital of approximately $438.7 billion. The accumulated realised capital of foreign investment projects topped $274 billion, equalling 62.5 per cent of the total valid registered investment capital.

Foreign investors poured funds into 19 out of 21 sectors in the national economic classification system, of which the processing and manufacturing industry maintained its lead in terms of attracting FDI with a total investment of over $16.8 billion, accounting for 60.6 per cent of the country’s total capital.

Among 108 nations and territories pouring capital into Việt Nam this year, Singapore ranked first with $6.46 billion. It was followed by South Korea ($4.88 billion), and Japan ($4.78 billion). 

The foreign investors invested in 54 provinces and cities nationwide in 2022. HCM City came first with more than $3.94 billion, Bình Dương ranked second with a total investment capital of over $3.14 billion. Quảng Ninh ranked third with a total registered investment capital of $2.37 billion. 

— VNS   LINK

Henig:  Positive 2023 securities market forecasts

06:00 | 20/01/2023

(VEN) - Vietnam’s securities market experienced strong volatility in 2022, stemming from investor caution in the face of global economic and political uncertainties.

Sharp fall in share prices

With stocks plummeting throughout 2022, most investor accounts registered a negative balance.

As of mid-December 2022, the VN-Index was trading at a price to earnings ratio P/E of 10.91 times, almost near the lowest level in a decade (10.34 times) on November 5, 2012. This valuation is also close to the valuation that VN-Index recorded during the first wave of COVID-19 on March 31, 2020.

The State Securities Commission (SSC) attributes the sharp decline both to domestic and international developments. Government economic support measures after the COVID-19 pandemic generated high inflation in many parts of the world, prompting rapid tightening of monetary policies. Domestically, cash flows on the securities market were affected by interest rate changes. After the Fed's continuous interest rate adjustments, the State Bank of Vietnam also increased the operating interest rate twice to cope with inflation and reduce external impacts.

In addition, deposit interest rates at commercial banks also increased, attracting cash flows back to the banking system and reducing the attractiveness of short-term securities investments.

The government’s crackdown on real estate enterprises suspected of violations in issuing corporate bonds also increased investor caution and affected securities market cash flow.

Basis for optimism in 2023

The breakthrough recovery of the VN-Index from its 900-point low to over 1,000 points during the final month of 2022 was mainly supported by foreign capital inflows. In November 2022, foreign investors net bought VND16 trillion on Vietnam’s securities market. The recent massive disbursement of foreign funds also matched foreign investors’ evaluation of Vietnam's securities market outlooks in 2023.

According to Craig Martin, Chair of Dynam Capital that manages Vietnam Holding Limited (VNH), the market recovered strongly at the end of November and is currently witnessing steady growth, pushing up prices of large-caps and luring back more local investors.

Tran Thang Long, analysis director of BIDV Securities Company (BSC) has reported that the BSC successfully issued shares to Hana Securities from the Republic of Korea for investment in long-term development opportunities of the Vietnamese securities market.

Tough government measures, including strengthened inspections and handlings of violations, are also expected to improve the stability, sustainability and transparency of the Vietnamese securities market.

The management agencies will also review the Law on Securities and guiding documents to resolve inadequacies and obstacles, thereby restoring investors’ confidence in the market.

According to J.P. Morgan data for the Asia-Pacific region, if Vietnam is upgraded to an emerging market, about US$5 billion from Exchange Traded Funds will pour into the country.

Thanh Thanh  LINK

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Henig:  Việt Nam retail real estate market expects growth in 2023

January, 20/2023 - 11:36

The retail space market has the opportunity to grow strongly in 2023 with the forecast of the recovery of the retail industry, especially with new investment of foreign brands in Việt Nam.

HÀ NỘI The retail space market has the opportunity to grow strongly in 2023 with the forecast of the recovery of the retail industry, especially with new investment of foreign brands in Việt Nam.

Many retail brands are looking at Việt Nam because the economy is strong, and they see the potential. Brands are diverse and range from luxury to mid-market brands, said Nick Bradstreet, head of Asia Pacific Retail, Savills. For example, Lotte is completing a new project, and it is expected to welcome international brands.

"The challenge Việt Nam is facing is that there are not enough shopping centres being built to meet the demand from international retailers," he said.

Việt Nam’s economy is growing quickly, which creates an attractive retail outlook. By 2025, Việt Nam will be the third largest economy in Southeast Asia, following Indonesia and Thailand. The country is vibrant and increasingly wealthy, and there is a dynamic population of young people.

Retailers want well-designed and managed properties with a dynamic tenant mix. They also want landlords to advertise and promote the spaces to draw in traffic, Bradstreet said. Central Group from Thailand is looking to invest more money in Việt Nam, and this is likely to attract international retailers because they trust the products. It might be harder for local developers and landlords because they are unknown on the international scene. Relationships are essential to attracting international retailers.

Besides, large cities such as Hà Nội, Đà Nẵng and HCM City, “tourist hubs, like Hội An, present opportunities, especially for pop-up stores during the high season. All the ingredients are there for Hội An, it just needs a well-planned and well-designed shopping centre,” Bradstreet said.

According to Bradstreet, everybody likes a well-managed shopping centre. Shopping centres deliver experiences. A prime example is Siam Paragon in Bangkok. It’s got all the big brands, people go and spend time with their friends, and parking and public transport are convenient. Shopping centres like this are popular in mainland China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Việt Nam is no exception.

New suburban shopping centres and Lotte’s new project will be successful because people will be happy to go. The difficulty is that there are not enough shopping centres. Usually, there are shopping malls where all the luxury brands can be together or where fast fashion brands like Zara and H&M be grouped, but in Hà Nội, this is still very difficult to achieve.

“In the past, wealthy customers in Việt Nam travelled to Paris, Dubai, or Singapore and bought goods overseas. Before COVID, Vietnamese shoppers were spending overseas," he said.

However, with the lockdowns and restrictions over the last few years, they spent in Việt Nam and sales increased dramatically. Even today, luxury sales are extremely strong even though people are beginning to travel,” he said.

“The luxury market is interesting because there is a VIP business model. If someone shops at Louis Vuitton or Christian Dior, they will get to know them and will give them VIP treatment with dinners or gifts. So even if shoppers go overseas to buy a bag, they will still get a store from their local store when something new comes in. The relationship between customers and retailers has become stronger.”

E-commerce is now a vital sales avenue, and retailers have physical and online stores. However, physical stores deliver the experiential side of retail and can demonstrate the strength of a brand, its products, and its people. This plays an important role in how people feel about a brand and loyalty comes from that. Savills has seen people return to stores post-COVID, and physical spaces are important, Bradstreet said.

Luxury brands don’t rely too much on e-commerce because luxury retail is about service. When customers go to stores like Prada or Louis Vuitton, they walk out feeling good and often share this experience with their friends. However, when it comes to brands like Zara or H&M, getting delivery at home is okay because there isn’t the same level of aspiration or exclusivity.

In 2022, the retail market in general and townhouses in particular already recovered with a better occupancy rate, but the recovery has not reached the level of the pre-COVID-19 period, according to Savills.

The rental price of retail space also recorded an increase against the COVID-19 period. Of course, the recovery is still not as the performance before the pandemic due to the impacts of the economic situation at present and the landlords' psychology of comparison in the price at present against that in the pre-pandemic, said Hoàng Diệu Trang, Senior Leasing Manager for Savills Vietnam in Hanoi Branch.

Therefore, to further develop the market of townhouses for rent in 2023, there needs to be cooperation between customers and landlords in adjusting rent expectations.

In addition, the advantages of Việt Nam, such as a large and young population, and the young people's higher shopping needs than previous generations, will play a big role in attracting retail brands to the market, leading to the development of townhouse-retail in the future.

However, the retail real estate market in Việt Nam has high competitiveness, so retailers must constantly innovate to survive.

For the occupancy rate, the market still needs to continue adjusting to increase this rate in the near future.

Meanwhile, homeowners need to be aware of strict requirements on retail space from the brands. Brands need retail space with good quality in building and technical conditions.

Therefore, besides the good location of retail space, the landlord needs to provide more professional services and have more investment in the quality of the space to attract big brands.

In fact, if the townhouse space does not meet the desired brand criteria, they will prioritise Grade A retail space, which has special locations, reputable investors and properly-invested retail space.

Besides that, it cannot ignore the adverse effects of global macroeconomic conditions on consumption. Moreover, tourism has not really boomed, which also affects consumption, so it is necessary to have policies to support enterprises and Vietnamese brands to develop in many industries, thereby encouraging domestic consumption.

VNS  LINK

KTFA Members "World News" Friday 1-20-2023

KTFA:

Henig:  From Davos.. The President of the Republic: The security situation in Baghdad and other cities is stable and better than other countries

Baghdad / NINA / - The President of the Republic, Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, affirmed that the security situation in Baghdad and other cities is stable and better than other countries.

He said in a dialogue session on the Middle East within the activities of the World Economic Forum in Davos: The current government is moving towards reform and benefiting from oil revenues towards building and improving the economy.   LINK

Henig:  Al-Saihoud: The next stage should be an industrial revolution to support and encourage the national economy

Baghdad / NINA /- The MP for the State of Law coalition, Muhammad Saadoun Al-Saihoud, said that "the next stage must be an industrial revolution to support and encourage the national economy."

Al-Saihoud stressed in a press statement today that: The time has come for Iraq to take its main and pioneering role for the development and upgrading of the local product, whether it is agricultural, industrial, commercial or even investment, given that Iraq has economic resources, infrastructure, human resources, raw materials, minds and expertise that can enable it to revitalizing the national economy in all its details.

He added that: The government must develop and upgrade the national product after inaction and absence that lasted for many years, and that Iraq must be a producer country, not just a consumer, and it has all the ingredients for success, and this is what needs political and economic support, whether at the level of the legislative and executive authority alike.  LINK

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Clare:  Planning announces the rate of inflation in Iraq and the government's measures to address it

1/20/2023   Baghdad -

On Friday, the Ministry of Planning revealed government measures to address the effects of inflation in Iraq, while identifying the reasons for its high rates.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Planning, Abd al-Zahra al-Hindawi, said, “The whole world is witnessing a rise in inflation indicators as a result of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and climate conditions,” noting that “the repercussions contributed to the rise in prices of industries and energy to the highest levels, and thus reflected on inflation indicators, which rose significantly.” in the countries of the world.”

Al-Hindawi added, "Inflation rates rose in Iraq during the past year 2022, affected by global repercussions and the exchange rate that changed during the recent period."

He pointed out that "the rate of inflation in Iraq reaches (6 to 7%) compared to what it was previously, and this type is a natural cumulative increase over the past months," attributing the reason to "the high prices of some services, the volume of cash circulation and the cash mass circulating in the markets." ".

And he indicated that "the more the monetary mass in circulation inflated, the higher the inflation rate would be affected," noting that "the real measures to reduce inflation are to support the local product, preserve the value of the national currency, and ration imports."
He pointed out that "these measures would contribute to achieving a state of stability in inflation indicators."

He continued, "The government is taking a number of measures to reduce cases of inflation, and there are policies within the future directions to support industry and agriculture to reduce the volume of imports and ration it in proportion to the actual need," explaining that "these measures will contribute to reducing the irrational increases in inflation in the country."   LINK

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Henig:  Al-Sudani chairs a special meeting to discuss the final details of the 2023 draft budget

 Baghdad today - Baghdad

 Today, Thursday, Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani chaired a special meeting to discuss the final details of the draft federal budget law 2023 .

 A statement by the media office of the prime minister, which was received by (Baghdad Today), stated that "Al-Sudani chaired a special meeting to discuss the final details of the draft federal budget law 2023."  

 Al-Swadani stressed, according to the statement, "the need to complete the draft budget law as quickly as possible, and submit it to the House of Representatives, in order for it to enter into force without delay." Fighting corruption, improving services, and reforming the economy. 

 Al-Sudani directed that "the draft law takes into account the importance of presenting infrastructure projects over other projects, in order to create an appropriate environment in the internal economy to achieve the adoption of the ministerial curriculum, provide service and make a difference that the citizen touches, in the service sector and other economic sectors."

On November 26, 2022, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani chaired a meeting devoted to discussing the draft federal budget law for the year 2023, while he demanded that the draft be completed as quickly as possible and submitted to Parliament .   LINK

Clare:  High oil prices in world markets

1/20/2023

Oil prices rose today, Friday, amid optimism that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) will end the cycle of monetary tightening, which will boost the economy and support demand for fuel.

Brent crude futures for March delivery rose 48 cents, or 0.6%, to $86.64 a barrel, while US crude prices rose 54 cents to $80.87 a barrel, up 0.7%.

The two benchmarks are heading for a second consecutive week of gains, and both closed up 1% on Thursday, near their highest closing levels since December 1.

New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams said on Thursday that the US central bank will approve more interest rate hikes, and that he sees signs that inflationary pressures may be starting to ease from their very high levels.    LINK

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Henig:  Gold is heading towards a fifth weekly rise, amid bets on slowing rate hikes

023/01/20

Gold prices stabilized today, Friday, but are heading for gains for the fifth week in a row, as the weakness of the dollar and hopes of a slowdown in raising US interest rates boosted the attractiveness of the yellow metal, which represents a safe haven.

 And by 03:08 GMT, gold settled in instant transactions at $ 1930.04 an ounce, up 0.5% during the week. Yesterday, Thursday, prices recorded $1,935.20, the highest level since April 2022.

 US gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,931.50.

According to a Reuters poll, the US Fed is expected to end the monetary tightening cycle with a 25 basis point hike in each of the next two policy meetings, then likely keep interest rates steady for at least the rest of the year.           

With lower interest rates, which means lower returns from assets such as government bonds, investors may prefer gold.

Data on Wednesday showed US retail sales fell by the most in a year, putting the overall economy on a weaker growth path.    

 The dollar index is heading for its second weekly decline, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

 As for other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.5% to $23.94.

 Platinum fell 0.1% to $1,032.25, and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,748.28. Both metals are heading for a second week of decline. LINK

Thursday "Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA 1-19-2023

KTFA:  Vietnam:

Henig:  Việt Nam's foreign exchange reserves to grow this year

January, 19/2023 - 05:51

Việt Nam's foreign exchange reserves will recover to the level of three months of imports and reach $102 billion by the end of this year from the current level of $89 billion.

HÀ NỘI — VNDirect Securities Corporation expects Vietnamese foreign exchange reserves to recover to 3.3 months of imports and reach US$102 billion by the end of this year from the current level of $89 billion last year, said in its updated macro report.

Analysts of VNDirect have made forecasts and said that with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) slowing down the rate of interest rate hikes this year and improving Vietnamese foreign exchange reserves, it would stop the decline price of Vietnamese đồng.

At the same time, the rate at the end of this year is likely to decrease by 1-2 per cent.

Besides, experts also expect a trade surplus of $13.4 billion this year, from a trade surplus of $12.4 billion last year.

In addition, the current account will turn into a surplus at 1.4 per cent of GDP this year from a projected deficit of 0.8 per cent of GDP last year.

According to data published in March 2022, Việt Nam's foreign exchange reserves are at a record high of nearly $110 billion.

However, after that, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) faced many difficulties in balancing the three main goals of controlling inflation, stabilising exchange rates and interest rates to support growth.

SBV had to sell a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to stabilise the exchange rate, which is estimated at approximately 20 per cent of foreign exchange reserves, in the first 10 months of last year.

This has caused Việt Nam's foreign exchange reserves to fall below the level recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when it was less than three months of imports.

VNDirect expects a trade surplus of $12 billion next year, from an expected trade surplus of $10.4 billion last year.

At the same time, VNDirect also expects the current account to turn into a surplus in to 0.4 per cent of GDP this year from a projected deficit of 1.3 per cent of GDP last year.

Therefore, the securities company said that Việt Nam's foreign exchange reserves will recover to the level of three months of imports and reach $102 billion by the end of this year from the current level of $89 billion.

However, VNDirect said that there were several key risks to the forecast including higher-than-expected inflation and a stronger-than-expected US dollar which could put additional pressure on the Vietnamese đồng and the stronger-than-expected recession of Việt Nam's major trading partners.

In fact, Vietnamese đồng once depreciated by 7-8 per cent last year compared to the end of 2021, but by the last trading day of last year, Vietnamese đồng only depreciated by 3.53 per cent, equivalent to half of the two previous months.

— VNS  LINK

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Henig:  Significant upticks in international trade in 2022: MXV

January, 19/2023 - 08:53

International trade saw significant upticks with an average daily exchange of VND5 trillion daily, with some days at over VND10 trillion, and more than 4,000 new accounts created during the year 2022, according to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV).

HÀ NỘI — International trade saw significant upticks with an average daily exchange of VNĐ5 trillion daily, with some days at over VNĐ10 trillion, and more than 4,000 new accounts created during 2022, according to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV).

In a recently released report, MXV said trade volume has increased by 36 per cent compared to 2021 with a total of over 22,000 active accounts on the platform. Monthly growth has also been reportedly stable with an upward trend. 

"We have overseen deals being made 24/7 from Monday till Saturday with some of the world's largest trade platforms for the entire year, without any issues," said MXV's director-general Đặng Việt Hưng.

He said the smooth operation was the result of upgrading IT infrastructure with a number of new automatic functions which has been well-received by international and industry experts. Hưng added the system has been geared toward greater trade volume in the future.  

Since its foundation in 2010, the platform's focus has been on improving collaboration with international trade platforms to push key Việt Nam's commodities including agricultural products, energy, metals, and industrial input materials.  

"Last year, we introduced new Mini and Micro transactions. Investors could place an order with as little as VNĐ10 million, a significantly lower amount compared to before, which has allowed thousands of new investors, with limited financial capacity, to enter the playground," he said.

It has paid off, according to Hưng, as WTI Micro oil transaction was among the country's busiest trade activities last year. 

The platform has been working around the clock to expand its networks to cover all regions across the country with a growing number of partners and members. A series of new protocols and policies, implemented in 2022, have been enforced to ensure all partners and members received sufficient training to follow the country's laws and regulations, as well as international trade norms. 

MXV said it organised 12 training classes during the last year and granted certificates to over 500 brokers and investors through a collaborative effort with international trade platforms as part of an effort to improve its human resource quality and efficiency. 

The growing Việt Nam market has received attention from some of the world's largest trading platforms such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as many others regularly paid visits and conducted working sessions with MXV. 

CME advised its Vietnamese partner to focus on the delivery of commodities, given the country's advantage in producing a number of key commodities and input materials and its growing influence in the global supply chain. 

Hưng urged the government to quickly implement additional policies to speed up the development of trade activities on the platform, stressing the importance of adapting and reacting to the global trade's new environment. 

"It will provide the platform a solid foundation for future development and further support Vietnamese products," he said. 

In 2023, the platform's top priority, he said, is to introduce additional new services for Vietnamese key commodities including coffee, cashew, and pepper. Access to new markets around the world should provide a marked improvement in farmers' confidence and productivity. 

MXV has been working closely with its logistics partners and port authorities in an attempt to raise commodity delivery by 200-300 per cent this year compared to 2022.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Shares extend gains on the rise of real estate, securities stocks

January, 19/2023 - 06:31

Shares gained ground on Wednesday thanks to the sharp rises of large-caps and in the securities and real estate group, supporting the overall market.

HÀ NỘI — Shares gained ground on Wednesday thanks to the sharp rises of large-caps and in the securities and real estate group, supporting the overall market.

The benchmark VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) gained 0.92 per cent to close at 1,098.28 points. The index had ended Tuesday at 1,088.29 points, an increase of 2.03 per cent.

The market's breadth turned positive with 105 stocks declining, while 322 rose.

Liquidity rose to a new high with 604.2 million shares traded on the southern bourse, worth VNĐ10.2 trillion (US$435.2 million).

The 30 biggest stocks tracking VN30-Index rose 1.09 per cent to 1,115.72 points. Twenty-five in the VN30 basket increased, while two declined and three ended unchanged.

Securities stocks soared at the end of the session with many strong gainers, namely Asia - Pacific Securities Joint Stock Company (APS), Việt Nam Bank For Industry & Trade Securities JSC (CTS), VNDirect Securities Co (VND), Bank for Invesment & Development of Vietnam Securities Company (BSI) and VIX Securities Joint Stock Company (VIX).

Real estate and construction stocks witnessed a dramatic gain in prices, such as Khang Điền House (KDH), Novaland (NVL) and Phát Đạt Real Estate Group (PDR).

The bullish inertia continue to bring the market up and conquer the higher resistence zone. Liquidity improved compared to the previous period, showing that investors’ sentiment is gradually becoming positive again, said Việt Dragon Securities Co.

“With this development, the market may continue to gain in the next session thanks to the inertia, yet a dispute situation may take place. The next resistance area to watch out for is the old peak of 1,100 points of VN-Index, equivalent to 1,120 points of VN-30 index. Therefore, investors expect the market’s ability to rise, but still need to pay attention to selling pressure at the upcoming peak,” said the company.

Meanwhile, the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) gained 1.2 per cent, to close Weddnesday at 217.73 points.

The index had closed Tuesday at 215.15 points, a decline of 2.02 per cent.

During the trading session, investors poured VNĐ1.2 trillion into the northern market, equivalent to a trading volume of 75.3 million shares.

— VNS   LINK

Henig:  Association asks for support to build cold storage system in HCM City

January, 19/2023 - 07:51

HCM City needs to develop a cold storage system and raw material storage areas for the food processing industry, the Food and Foodstuff Association of HCM City said.

HCM CITY — HCM City needs to develop a cold storage system and raw material storage areas for the food processing industry, the Food and Foodstuff Association of HCM City said.

The two projects play an important role in the development of the city's food processing industry in the 2021-2030 period. The industry is among the four key industries that the city prioritises, it said.

Lý Kim Chi, chairwoman of the association, said the city currently has many cold storages units but they are at small scale and not that modern, so they do not meet all the requirements for cold storage.

The municipal government, therefore, has approved a cold storage system development project and assigned the city Department of Industry and Trade in collaboration with the association to deploy it, she said.

The cold storage units will have an average area of 5-10ha and be located at areas with convenient traffic and not too far the city centre. They must be at international quality to store and preserve many groups of goods, including imported ones and locally produced products, she said.

“But we have not found an appropriate site for building the cold storage despite making intensive searches,” she said.

Funds for building the cold storage system are contributed by businesses in the industry. The association did not ask the city government to fund for the project, but wanted the city to have policies to support the industry to implement the project, she said.

Chi said a material storage area is very important to the food processing industry, adding that currently, material inputs for food processing firms in the city are mainly supplied by farmers in the southwest provinces.

Therefore, the industry needs to link with provinces to build stable material storage areas for each commodity, and instruct farmers to adopt certain requirements in their crop production to yield clean raw materials so firms can process products for export to fastidious markets such as the US and EU, she said.

Building raw material storage areas should go in tandem with logistics development. The current transport infrastructure is not that good, pushing up costs to firms. If ring roads that connect the city with neighbouring provinces are soon completed, they would help HCM City food processing enterprises reduce costs, she said.

While other sectors witnessed a drop in revenue last year, the food and foodstuff sector recorded over 10 per cent growth in revenue in 2002, and enterprises have had many export orders from several markets for this year, Chi said.

— VNS  LINK

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Henig:  Việt Nam will face opportunities and challenges from the world economy in 2023

January, 19/2023 - 08:00

The factors affecting the world economy in 2023 will bring significant challenges to Việt Nam but also open great opportunities for this country if it has suitable solutions to develop the economy

The factors affecting the world economy in 2023 will bring significant challenges to Việt Nam but also open great opportunities for this country if it has suitable solutions to develop the economy.

Phạm Sỹ Thành, Director of the China Economic Research Programme at the Việt Nam Centre for Economics and Policy Research (VEPR), spoke to Vietnam News Agency about this issue.

Many financial institutions believe that monetary policy tightening for curbing high inflation and the unending energy crisis will be important factors affecting the world economy in 2023. What do you think about this issue?

The monetary policy tightening of the major central banks is one of the important factors that create a reduction of external demand of the economies as well as the decline in production of countries at present. However, this is only part of the difficulties to anticipate for 2023. The fact is that world inflation has already peaked while the roadmap of central banks' interest rate hikes will follow a much lower margin compared to that in 2022.

Besides that, I think there are three other factors that have a negative impact on the global economy. First of all, there is not ever a situation that all three major economic regions of the global economy face many difficulties like now.

In 2008, the US economy had problems, while the European and China economies were fine.

In 2010, the European economy was unstable, but the US economy recovered and China was on a good growth track.

In the two years of 2015-2016, China's economy had problems, while the US and Europe recovered strongly from the crisis.

However, now, it is the first time all three major economies have problems. Specifically, the US still faces high inflation. In Europe, inflation and energy prices are problematic. China, on the other hand, is experiencing problems in asset market and the unexpected effects of the zero-COVID policy.

In the world economic model, the US and Europe are like the demand side, and China is like the supply side. So, if only one of the two sides has problems, the global economy will face great difficulties. If these two sides face difficulties at the same time, the risk of a global economic slowdown is even more obvious.

The second factor that will negatively affect the global economy is the consequence of the monetary policy tightening that central banks have applied in recent years to control high inflation. Accordingly, it is not only the problem in the exchange rate, but also the consequence will create great pressure on the economies that pursue an export model or rely on exports to promote economic growth.

In addition, the instability of the asset market in China is also a new hot spot to watch. For the world economy, China is a very important growth country. According to the latest forecast, China's economic growth in 2022 reached only 50 per cent of the target. The reasons are the effect of the zero-COVID policy, the volatility of the asset market affecting consumer sentiment and reducing exports. These are the factors that can adversely affect China's economic growth prospects in 2023.

Many analysts believe that China can fully open up in 2023 after a long period of isolation against the COVID-19 pandemic. It will be a big impact on the world's inflation control in 2023. What do you think about this?

China's opening has a huge impact on the prices of global basic commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, oil and agricultural products. In fact, China's imports of those commodities for domestic consumption are very small. With the characteristic of being an export economy, if the exports from China to the US and Europe cannot recover, China will boost exports to other markets.

However, the statistics at the end of 2022 showed that China's export growth was at a low level. In November 2022, China's exports fell 8.7 per cent year-on-year, and it was the second consecutive month of decline.

This was also the deepest drop in China's exports since February 2020 - the peak of the outbreak of COVID-19 in China.

These numbers showed that the real difficulty comes from the monetary policy tightening of the US and EU that have had an immediate impact on large export-based economies like China.

Besides, the world's inflation problem also comes from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine because this has caused the world to face an energy price crisis. Therefore, the world's inflation in 2023 depends not only on China's opening up, but also on solving the world's energy crisis.

How will Việt Nam's economy face these big challenges to maintain economic growth?

I think that Việt Nam is facing a big challenge from the outside, which is a huge decrease in demand for Vietnamese exports.

In fact, the growth rate of Việt Nam's many export commodities gaining turnover of over US$1 billion, such as wood and garment products, in October and November 2022 decreased by 30-40 per cent compared to the same period last year and to the previous month.

This showed that the foreign market is no longer attractive enough for exports in 2023. Meanwhile, the decline in exports will bring many problems, especially poverty, lack of work, and an increase in unemployment in industrial zones.

In addition, Việt Nam also faces two internal challenges. Firstly, the handling of violations in both the bond market and the banking system is creating bottlenecks in capital flows.

Meanwhile, the cost of capital is one of the barriers for businesses in approaching capital. This difficulty requires the Government to take measures on removing it, helping businesses access capital as quickly as possible with an appropriate interest rate.

Besides, Vietnamese exporters also have great opportunities to get orders from partners that did business with Chinese businesses before in the context of China applying the zero COVID policy.

That partly also made the supply chain's move out of China to Việt Nam faster, like the move of Foxconn, Apple, Adidas or Samsung. In fact, in Southeast Asia, Việt Nam is emerging as one of the locations where large corporations choose to build research and development (R&D) centres.

To take advantage of the external advantages, Việt Nam needs to have synchronous solutions, including the building of a better industrial infrastructure and office systems.

Another important solution is to deal with the problems of the bond markets and banking system. In particular, fiscal policy needs to play a bigger role in opening up more opportunities for economic development as well as take advantage of the situation that other affected economies do not recover.

VNS   LINK

KTFA Wednesday Night CC "Welcome WTO....and Everyone Else" 1-18-2023

KTFA

Wednesday Night Conference Call

Frank26:  1-18-23…WELCOME WTO …. AND EVERYONE ELSE

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gry5HNLlz5A

Some Wednesday "Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA 1-18-2023

KTFA:  Vietnam

Henig:  Shares make large gains on banking, securities stocks

January, 18/2023 - 06:55

Vietnamese equities closed sharply higher on Tuesday, bolstered by a dramatic injection of cash flow into banking and securities.

HÀ NỘI - Vietnamese equities closed sharply higher on Tuesday, bolstered by a dramatic injection of cash flow into banking and securities.

The market’s benchmark VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) ended the day at 1,088.29 points, an increase of 2.03 per cent.

The breadth of the market stayed in positive territory, with more stocks gaining points. Specifically, 352 stocks advanced on the southern bourse, while 69 stocks inched lower.

Investors poured nearly VNĐ11.7 trillion (US$499.3 million) into the southern exchange, equivalent to a trading volume of 673.9 million shares.

The VN30-Index, which tracks the 30 biggest stocks on HoSE, also increased by 2.6 per cent, to 1,103.73 points.

Twenty-nine stocks in the VN30 basket witnessed positive performance on the trading day, while only one tumbled.

Strong cash flow poured into blue-chips, spurring the market’s gains. Among the most notable gainers were Hoà Phát Group (HPG), the Việt Nam Rubber Group (GVR), SSI Securities Inc (SSI), Khang Điền House (KDH) and FPT Corporation (FPT), Vingroup (VIC), Vincom Retail (VRE), Masan Group (MSN), Vinhomes (VHM), Novaland (NVL), Vietjet (VJC), Vinamilk (VNM), Mobile World Group (MWG) and Bảo Việt Holdings (BVH).

Bank stock prices have witnessed a substantial increase such as Agribank Securities Corporation (AGR), Asia - Pacific Securities Joint Stock Company (APS), Viet Nam Bank For Industry & Trade Securities JSC (CTS), Military Bank (MBB), Petrovietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI), Sacombank Securities Joint Stock Company (SBS), VNDirect Securities Co (VND), FPT Securities Joint Stock Company (FTS) and Liên Việt Post Bank (LPB).

“In the last week of the Lunar Year, BSC maintains the view that VN-Index may not have too strong fluctuations and will continue to accumulate in the range of 1,050-1,065,” said BIDV Securities Co (BSC).

Foreign investors net bought VNĐ227.96 billion on HOSE, including FUESSVFL with VNĐ124.26 billion, Hoà Phát Group (HPG) with VNĐ30.29 billion, Bank for Investment and Development (BID) with VNĐ29.99 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers on HNX with the value of VNĐ1.5 billion.

On the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX), the HNX-Index moved up. The northern market’s benchmark closed at 215.15 points, a decline of 2.02 per cent.

During the session, nearly 64.7 million shares were traded on HNX, worth VNĐ934 billion.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Support industries vital for global integration

06:00 | 18/01/2023

(VEN) - “Entering 2023, Vietnam needs to promote the development of support industries to help the country’s industrial sector effectively participate in the global supply chain,” said Deputy Director of the Industry Agency under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) Ngo Khai Hoan in an interview with Vietnam Economic News’ Lan Anh.

What is your evaluation of the linkage model between foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises and Vietnamese companies?

Most FDI enterprises invest in Vietnam to take advantage of investment incentives, low labor costs, and other advantages offered by our various free trade agreements (FTAs). As a result, they do not pay attention to the formation of domestic supply chains and have only a loose connection with domestic enterprises, which does not create spillover effects between the FDI sector and the domestic economic sector.

Currently, with the increase of per capita income, Vietnam’s advantages of low-cost labor are no longer sufficient magnets for large FDI enterprises. Vietnam must therefore adopt breakthrough policies, build sustainable cooperation and connection models between the government, FDI enterprises and Vietnamese companies.

What should the government and businesses do to promote the development of support industries?

The government needs to improve the capability of Vietnamese enterprises by adopting solutions on business connections, market information, human resource development, etc. These long-term goals need to be implemented simultaneously to raise awareness of related parties and the supporting industry community towards long-term and sustainable development goals.

Vietnamese enterprises also need to be proactive and make efforts to access the government's support programs, as well as equip themselves with new technologies and innovative management methods to optimize production and improve competitiveness, in order to manufacture products of high technology content and high added value.

FDI enterprises should continue to actively coordinate with the Vietnamese government and enterprises in sharing information, support training, transferring technology, and facilitating the participation of Vietnamese enterprises in long-term, sustainable supply chains.

What specific opportunities did the selection of six prioritized industries in the supporting industry development strategy create for foreign investors and Vietnamese enterprises?

The selection of the six prioritized industries following Decree 111/2015/ND-CP, including textiles and garments, footwear, electronics, automotive, mechanical and high-tech industries, reflect government determination in these fields. This is one of the most important solutions for Vietnam to affirm its position in the global supply chain.

In addition, the selection is a signal and basis to attract and encourage FDI enterprises to invest in or expand investment in the above-mentioned industries. Particularly, it will give priority to projects of high technology content that use advanced and clean technologies, adopt modern management and have spillover and connective effects with global production and supply chains.

In 2023, the promotion of domestic support industries is expected to help the Vietnamese industrial sector effectively participate in the global supply and value chains.

According to the MoIT, supporting industry development is one of the most important solutions to improve the quality of Vietnam’s economy, promote its sustainable growth and enhance its attraction to foreign investors, thereby helping domestic enterprises deeply participate in supply chains of FDI enterprises and global value chains of multinational corporations.

Lan Anh  LINK

Henig:  Forest exports target $17.5 billion

January, 18/2023 - 09:52

Trần Thanh Bình from the Import and Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the wood industry, like all trade sectors, could not avoid difficulties.

HÀ NỘI — Despite many difficulties, the export of wood and forest products still reached the target of US$16.9 billion last year. Continuing this momentum, the industry has set an export turnover target of $17.5 billion this year.

Trần Thanh Bình from the Import and Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the wood industry, like all trade sectors, could not avoid difficulties.

The reason is that the COVID-19 pandemic, the political situation and the high inflation coming from the US and EU major markets make it difficult for businesses to sign and fulfil orders.

The common difficulty of wood industry enterprises is high input costs and rising prices, which reduces the competitiveness of goods, including timber.

Strong fluctuations in the financial and monetary market also make wood production lose its competitive advantage.

Rapidly rising interest rates lead to high capital costs and the risk of disruption to the supply of raw materials and the value chain for the wood industry.

One of the critical drivers of exports is the expansion of exports in China, Japan and South Korea.

The US, Japan, China, EU and South Korea accounted for the total export value estimated at nearly $15.5 billion, accounting for 91 per cent of the export value of forest products, said the general secretary of the Việt Nam Timber and Forest Product Association Ngô Sỹ Hoài admitted.

In the opposite direction, the import value of wood and wood products was estimated at $2.8 billion last year, up 4 per cent compared to 2021.

The industry has a trade surplus of about $14.1 billion, up 6.5 per cent year-on-year.

The industry sets a positive target, with export turnover reaching $17.5 billion this year.

The growth rate of forestry production value is from 5 to 5.5 per cent. The forest cover rate remained stable at 42 per cent.

Concentrated afforestation will be 245,000 hectares, 140 million scattered trees will be planted, the output of harvested forest timber will be 22 million cubic metres, and the revenue from forest environmental services will be about VNĐ3 trillion (US$127 million).

Dealing with trade remedy lawsuits

Việt Nam is integrating very deeply with the free trade process through many trade agreements. Therefore, trade competition will become increasingly fierce; many countries apply self-defence measures.

Hoài explained that the wood industry has been facing anti-dumping lawsuits.

The country has over 6,000 small and medium enterprises, of which about 3,000 enterprises participate in the global supply chain.

Hoài emphasised the need to prepare well in two stages to respond well to trade defence cases.

The first is the pre-suit; before signing a commercial contract and preparing the shipment of wooden furniture for export, enterprises must listen and equip the best tools.

Enterprises needed to apply modern accounting software so that when there is a problem, it could provide proof, invoices and documents to prove business transparency.

Next comes dealing with the major market lawsuits that initiated the investigation.

"Vietnamese businesses are weak in knowledge of international law, foreign languages, and informatics," he said.

Strengthening corporate capacity management was essential, which included investing in knowledge, technology and people.

In addition, the role of each local timber association, the Việt Nam Timber Association, and the authorities must be enhanced, timely warnings to businesses must be increased, and training courses for businesses on trade defence skills, criticism, and record-keeping must be organised.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Trade with Australia hits record high in 2022

January, 18/2023 - 08:56

Việt Nam has become Australia's 10th largest trade partner for the first time, while Australia is now Việt Nam's seventh largest trade partner.

SYDNEY — Two-way trade between Việt Nam and Australia topped US$15.7 billion in 2022, up 27 per cent year-on-year, statistics from the Việt Nam Trade Office in Australia revealed.

Last year, Việt Nam exported $5.55 billion worth of goods to Australia, a year-on-year increase of 26 per cent while its imports from the market saw a yearly hike of 27.3 per cent to $10.14 billion. 

Vietnamese export items posting high growth amid various challenges included iron and steel (103 per cent); electric wires and cables (81 per cent); coffee (63 per cent); machinery, equipment, tools, and other spare parts (62 per cent) besides footwear (41 per cent);  aquatic products (37 per cent); textiles (26 per cent); handbags, suitcases and umbrellas (25 per cent).

At the same time, Australia continued to be an important supplier of raw materials for Việt Nam’s production of coal, cotton, ores and other minerals, and wheat. 

Head of the office Nguyễn Phú Hòa said that the industry structure of Việt Nam and Australia were complementary to each other, helping the two economies enhance their advantages instead of competing.

He added Việt Nam had become Australia's 10th largest trade partner for the first time, while Australia is now Việt Nam's seventh largest trade partner.

According to economic experts, there remain room for the two countries to promote bilateral trade.

The implementation of free trade agreements, including the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANFTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), have been offering opportunities for further cooperation between the two nations. 

Chu Hoàng Long, Lecturer at the Australian National University (ANU) suggested State agencies and businesses from the two nations clearly identify their strengths and comparative advantages; carefully study the legal system, customs, regulations and standards of goods and services while improving their local knowledge and understanding about the capacity of partners in order to make good use of cooperation opportunities. 

For Việt Nam, it was necessary for the Southeast Asian country to enlist the support of Australia to improve its investment and business environment, so that it could be ready and proactive to receive technology transfer, upgrade value chains in both governance and technology to quickly connect with Australian value chains and reach out to the global value chain.

This year, the Việt Nam Trade Office in Australia plans to implement promotion programmes for industries with large turnover and follows the directions of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in expanding Vietnamese exports, especially frozen fruits such as jackfruit, passion fruit and durian besides some spices. 

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Challenges persist for small and medium-sized domestic packaging companies

January, 17/2023 - 09:41

According to Ngô Đức Nhật, co-founder of HCM City-based Hoàng Phát Packaging Co, which specialises in carton packaging production, this market segment had slowed down during the social distancing period due to restrictions in good transportation and import and export activities.

HÀ NỘI — Despite the hard work of small and medium-sized domestic packaging companies to stay in tune with market demands and apply the latest production technologies, they continue to face a host of challenges.

According to Ngô Đức Nhật, co-founder of HCM City-based Hoàng Phát Packaging Co, which specialises in carton packaging production, this market segment had slowed down during the social distancing period due to restrictions in good transportation and import and export activities.

Similarly, the glass packaging segment was also affected when consumption of cosmetic products and high-end drinks in glass bottles slowed down as bottled water producers preferred to use plastic packaging, Nhật told thesaigontimes.vn.

In the post-pandemic period, Việt Nam’s major import markets faced many difficulties and the risk of economic recession, so they cut back on goods imports and outsourcing orders. That had reduced the amount of packaging they consumed, especially those used to pack goods for export, Nhật said, emphasising difficulties local pulp packaging producers had been coping with in production activities.

Furthermore, dependence on imported raw materials, which had been significantly influenced by many relevant factors such as prices of gasoline and logistics services, also affected the firm's revenues and profits, he spoke to the online newspaper.

The Việt Nam Pulp and Paper Association also agreed. It said packaging enterprises still faced many challenges, such as consumption competition among domestic enterprises due to many new production lines being put into production, harsh competition from foreign rivals, lack of raw materials and high raw material prices and transportation costs.

Moreover, the market has also been experiencing many changes in packaging trends and demands. For example, in the face of climate change, concerns about business sustainability were more important than ever, with a particular focus on packaging and waste generated from food, beverages and consumer products.

Therefore, domestic enterprises needed to grasp this trend to make the necessary changes to solve these challenges.

According to the association, several enterprises had converted packaging production technology from recycled PP plastic pellets - a material with abundant domestic supply. That helped them meet environmental protection requirements and avoid affecting manufacturing costs.

Haiquanonline.com.vn cited a representative of Đồng Tiến Paper and Packaging Co saying that consumers' awareness about the classification and recycling of waste was increasing. Still, recycling in Việt Nam faced many obstacles due to the lack of collection facilities and the low quality of output materials because of old technology, leading to commercial recycled products not having high value.

Therefore, the company invested VNĐ57.8 billion in a system of factories and production lines for toilet paper and packaging from recycled materials.

For Hoàng Phát Packaging Co, Nhật said his company was striving to automate production processes, facilitating IT appliances to improve the management quality and finding solutions to improve the quality and the design of packaging products to meet the requirements of the demanding partners.

Diversifying packaging products would also be included, he said.

In the long run, Nhật also called for packaging enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, to foster their cooperation.

He explained that currently, each enterprise often covers all stages or several stages in the production process. That forced them to divide their investment capital and buy out-of-date machines.

If the firms could team up, each enterprise could specialise in one stage to invest in a modern, high-quality machine for that particular stage.

Thanks to co-operation, the finished product of each stage would have a high quality, and all members of the production chain would benefit from that.

According to Nhật, quality was the most effective language for promotion, and open-minded and cooperative thinking would help the firms have more customers.

A recent survey by Vietnam Report showed that there remained huge room for the domestic packaging industry to promote growth in the future. Specifically, when Việt Nam and many countries that were the main export markets of packaging enterprises had also switched to a strategy of living with COVID-19, the sector had many prospects for recovery as high consumption would open growth opportunities for the packaging industry.

On the other hand, free trade agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, and RCEP continued to open up export opportunities for industries that used a lot of packagings such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, and processing industry, along with the large demand for high-quality packaging in the world such as high-grade packaging paper, which presented great export opportunities for Việt Nam's packaging industry.

FiinGroup also said in its report that packaging was one of the fastest growing industries in Việt Nam, with an annual growth rate of 13.4 per cent between the 2015-20 period. It was expected to continue double-digit growth in the coming years.

The strong development of the packaging sector in Việt Nam was driven by solid growth of such related sectors as F&B, consumer goods, export activities, and the robust development of modern trade.

To support the development of the local packaging industry, FiinGroup mentioned several solutions for domestic packaging companies, including catching up on the key trends in global packaging materials and designs, such as environmentally friendly and biodegradable products or products from recycled materials.

They should also have a thorough understanding of the requirements/commitments on certification of origin, technical standards, and sustainable development of the bilateral and multilateral FTAs Việt Nam signed in recent years to boost exports.

They should also pay attention to accelerating digital transformation, and automation of manufacturing processes to improve efficiency and product quality, it said.

— VNS   LINK

KTFA Members "International News" Tuesday PM 1-17-2023

KTFA:

Clare:  Why does Iraq participate in the Davos Forum? .. The President answers

2023-01-17

The Iraqi President, Abd al-Latif Rashid confirmed, on Tuesday, his participation in the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland, to emphasize the importance of establishing security and stability in the country. 

We are participating in the Davos Forum to stress the importance of consolidating the security and stability of Iraq and its vital role in the region and the world," he said in a tweet on Twitter, seen by Shafak News Agency.

Rashid stressed, "Working on economic partnerships that are in the interest of citizens and their needs through important projects, rehabilitation of basic infrastructure, and coordination to confront climate changes facing Iraq and the whole world."

Yesterday, Monday, the President of the Republic, Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, left Iraq for Switzerland to participate in the meetings of the World Economic Forum in Davos, accompanied by Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.    LINK

Henig:  Economist: The Federal Bank requires Iraq to hand over oil revenues

 34 minutes ago

Economic expert Nasser Al-Kinani confirmed, on Sunday, that the US Federal Bank requires Iraq to hand over its revenues from selling oil to the countries of the world, while stressing that it is possible to invest in oil exports in the face of the dollar crisis.

Al-Kinani said in a press interview seen by “Takadam” that “the Federal Bank imposes on Iraq the delivery of oil export revenues to the countries of the world,” noting that “Iraq cannot dispense with foreign currency at all because of the international link with the dollar.”

And he continued, "Iraq has the opportunity to barter, through oil in exchange for work or projects directly, without the need to deposit Iraq's money in America," noting that "it is possible to invest oil exports in the face of the dollar crisis."

And on the method of supplying money to Iraq, Al-Kinani said, “The Federal Bank is working to send money in dollars to Iraq from time to time, or at the request of Iraq.”

It is worth noting that the Development Fund for Iraq was formed according to UN Security Council Resolution 1483, to protect Iraqi funds from international claims and their piracy after the events of 2003.   LINK

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Clare:  Saudi Arabia announces the readiness of its companies to invest in Iraq

01/17/2023  Economy News / Baghdad

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fouad Hussein, confirmed today, Tuesday, that Iraq is seeking 25 Gulf investments as an occasion for the gathering of Gulf brothers in Iraq.

The ministry stated, in a statement, that "Hussein met with the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, on the sidelines of the Davos World Economic Forum meetings."

The statement added, "The meeting discussed bilateral relations between the two brotherly countries, in addition to discussing the regional situation in the Gulf region and the Middle East."

The minister began the meeting by "expressing the depth of relations between Iraq and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, stressing Iraq's endeavor to strengthen Gulf relations in general and Iraqi-Saudi relations in particular, because of their strategic importance for Iraq."

He explained, "Iraq seeks to invest in non-traditional diplomacy in the Gulf 25, which is currently being organized in the city of Basra as an occasion that brings together the Gulf brothers in Iraq."

For his part, the Saudi Foreign Minister expressed his thanks for "providing this opportunity for the purpose of discussing and exchanging views on Iraqi-Saudi relations and the latest current events in the region. He also expressed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's support for the Iraqi government's efforts aimed at promoting democracy and prosperity for Iraq."

He stressed that "Iraq's geographical location and available resources make it an important pillar in the region and enhance the role it can play regionally."

He pointed out, "We must work to strengthen economic relations between the two countries, and that Saudi companies are ready to invest in the Iraqi economy."   LINK

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Henig:  "Chinese gaming giant" enters Iraqi telecom markets: "An end to the Internet delay problem"

Baghdad Today – Translator

The well-known Chinese company "Tencent" specialized in electronic games announced today, Monday, its entry into the Iraqi telecommunications market through a partnership with the local "IQ" company to cover the country with private networks, expressing its hope to improve the local communications network in general and the performance of electronic games in particular.

The company said in a statement reported by (MENAFN), translated by (Baghdad Today), that "the number of mobile phone users in Iraq is expected to reach 10 million by 2026, mostly suffering from a weakness in the local communications network operating in Iraq, And the absence of suppliers capable of providing a communication service that meets the needs of the players in the country, which the company confirmed its intention to invest.

And she indicated, "One of the biggest problems facing players in Iraq and hindering the growth of the electronic games market and the use of the Internet significantly, is the delay that exceeds eighty parts of a second under the service of the current Internet providers in the country, the company," noting that it "will provide networks and devices It hopes to reduce the delay rate to 20 milliseconds only.

It promised the Iraqi players to "solve the problem of delay once and for all in the country."

And she added, "It will provide an Internet connection service that will outperform all current competitors in Iraq and lead to an improvement in communications and Internet services in general across the country," explaining that "the new networks will reduce Internet congestion and delays and significantly increase speeds in line with the players' needs." In addition to setting up local servers for well-known games inside the country to reduce momentum and increase speeds.

She pointed out that "the project also contributes to linking Iraq to the Silk Road Telecom Network, which will increase the effectiveness of communications in an unprecedented way," stressing that "the entry of the Chinese gaming giant into Iraq and its willingness to install servers and local networks of its own is a very positive indication of the escalating desire of companies." foreigners to enter the Iraqi market and serve its technological needs.  LINK

Henig: Integrity: the arrest of 18 employees and a commentator, and major breaches in the tax branches

Baghdad today – Baghdad

Today, Monday, the Integrity Commission announced the arrest of 18 employees and commentators, and dozens of transactions, violations and major violations, in the branches of the General Tax Authority.

And the Commission’s Investigations Department stated, in a statement received by (Baghdad Today), that it had caught “discussed persons in the Rusafa and Adhamiya taxes who are practicing their work illegally, and an employee in the Ward Division in the Rusafa branch was caught red-handed and is receiving sums of money from auditors.”

In Wasit Governorate, the department pointed out that "3 commentators were seized and 11 transactions, ten of which were accompanied by them, while one transaction was seized in the personal car of an employee in the tax branch in the governorate inside the department's garage."

And she indicated that in Diyala, "5 tax inspectors were seized in the tax branches in Baquba and Al-Khalis, in addition to a large group of transactions belonging to citizens, adding that a tax assessor was caught in Baquba and in possession of a group of transactions in his car for modern cars and sums of money."

And she added, "The teams carried out seizure operations in the Authority's branch in Al-Diwaniyah Governorate, as they were able to seize 3 suspects in accordance with the provisions of Article 335 of the Penal Code, for having taken out citizens' transactions outside the department without the knowledge of the department director and exempting the real estate subject of the transactions from tax accounting, claiming that its estimate is less than 50 million dinars.

And the department continued: “As for the branches of the General Tax Authority - Kirkuk 1 and 2, they were affected by audits and investigations. In (Kirkuk 1), the team seized a treasurer and a lawyer, because the first accepted a sum of money that was more than legally prescribed, and fixed a smaller amount in the receipt, while he was able to The team also seized an amount of more than 4 million dinars with the receipt, and seized a fund official after the field team monitored a shortage in the amount of the amounts received by her.

She added, "The field teams of the Commission's investigation offices in Anbar and Salah al-Din were able to seize two, one of whom is an employee of the tax branch in Fallujah in flagrante delicto."

And it alerted to "the organization of fundamental seizure records, and presenting them with the accused and the seized documents to the judges of the investigative courts specialized in hearing cases of integrity in Baghdad and the provinces, who decided to arrest most of the accused pending investigation."  LINK

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Henig:  The International Monetary Fund warns of a danger that will cost the world 7% of its GDP

 Economy News / Baghdad

The International Monetary Fund said in a new report that the current fragmentation could cost the global economy up to 7% of GDP.

The longer-term cost of the fragmentation of the trade sector ranges from 0.2% of global output to nearly 7%, roughly the combined annual output of Germany and Japan, according to the report published on Sunday titled "The Complexity of Grand Challenges" facing policymakers today. The research did not say how long it would take for fragmentation processes to affect growth of this size.

Depending on the definition of "fragmentation," some of the IMF's forecasts look even bleaker. Estimates that include technological decoupling between regions suggest that countries could lose up to 12% of GDP.

The International Monetary Fund lists a number of factors contributing to increasing global fragmentation, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Both cases caused international turmoil in financial, food, and energy supplies, with additional trade restrictions adding to the dispute between regions, according to CNBC, which Al Arabiya.net reviewed.

"The danger is that political interventions adopted in the name of economic or national security could have unintended consequences, or could be used deliberately for economic gain at the expense of others," the report said.

It also lists restrictions on cross-border migration, reduced capital flows and decreased international cooperation as different types of dichotomy.

'The developing world will lag further'

The IMF does not expect all countries to feel the effects of fragmentation equally.

According to the report, low-income consumers in advanced economies will not have access to cheaper imported goods, leaving small open market economies particularly vulnerable.

"Most Asian countries will suffer because of their heavy reliance on open trade," the report said.

Emerging and developing economies will also stop benefiting from the “technology spillovers” from more advanced economies, which in the past helped boost growth and living standards.

"Instead of catching up with income levels in the advanced economy, the developing world will fall further behind," the report added.

3 recommendations

The International Monetary Fund has recommended three approaches to address fragmentation: strengthening the international trading system, helping vulnerable countries deal with debt, and stepping up climate action.

These topics are likely to feature heavily in discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, starting Monday, which this year is under the theme "Cooperation in a Fragmented World."

LINK

KTFA Monday Night CC "What Happened To The 9th Of February?" 1-16-2023

KTFA

Monday Night Conference Call

Frank26:  1-16-23 WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 9th OF FEBRUARY

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95IjSAtVP9Q

Some "Vietnam News" Posted by Henig at KTFA Monday 1-16-2023

KTFA: Vietnam

Henig:  Bank stocks to flourish in 2023

January, 16/2023

Bank profits are forecast to be the bright spot in the fourth quarter 2022 financial report season, which takes place after the Lunar New Year.

HÀ NỘI — Bank profits are forecast to be the bright spot in the fourth quarter 2022 financial report season, which takes place after the Lunar New Year. This will help bank stocks flourish.

Although the financial statements for the fourth quarter of 2022 have not been announced, according to analysts' forecasts, in 2022, the picture of bank profits will have a strong divergence, along with the return of the commercial banking group with State capital. After two years of "holding" growth to support customers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the profit of this banking sector has increased sharply again.

By the end of 2022, Vietcombank's pre-tax profit reached nearly VNĐ36.8 trillion (US$1.6 billion), an increase of 39 per cent compared to 2021. This figure at BIDV was VNĐ22.56 trillion, an increase of nearly 80 per cent and at VietinBank was VNĐ20.5 trillion, an increase of 21.5 per cent compared to 2021.

Credit poured into priority areas, interest rates controlled at a reasonable level, and good asset quality are the reasons why State-owned commercial banks are granted more credit room by the State bank, thereby improving business results. In 2022, the credit of these banks all increased sharply, while bad debts were strictly controlled.

By the end of 2022, BIDV's bad debt ratio was only 0.9 per cent, bad debt coverage ratio reached 245 per cent, the highest level in recent years, and the balance of the risk reserve fund was up to VNĐ40 trillion. At Vietcombank, the bad debt ratio was only 0.67 per cent and the bad debt coverage was also above 465 per cent. At VietinBank, bad debt was also only 1.2 per cent, bad debt coverage ratio reached approximately 190 per cent, up 10 per cent compared to 2021.

The private joint stock commercial banks have not yet announced their profits, but it is forecast that the top banks will still maintain a positive growth rate, especially those with not too large corporate bond outstanding loans. Meanwhile, small joint stock commercial banks and banks with large bond outstanding loans are likely to see lower profits in the fourth quarter of 2022.

A recent survey by the State Bank of Việt Nam showed that business results of many credit institutions in the fourth quarter of 2022 did not meet expectations. However, 80 per cent of credit institutions predict that the overall business situation in 2022 will improve compared to 2021.

According to VNDirect analysts, in 2022, the banking industry's profit increased by about 32 per cent. In 2023, the banking sector's profit growth will decelerate, growing at only about 10 per cent due to slowing credit growth, narrowing net profit margin (NIM) and rising credit costs. Even so, opportunities are still open for banks with cheap valuations, healthy asset quality, high capital adequacy ratio, healthy credit structure, and restructuring. These will be the banks prioritised by the State Bank in the credit room grant in 2023.

Nguyễn Hoài Phương, Investment Director, who runs the Việt Nam Market Access Equity Fund (VESAF) under VinaCapital, said that in 2023, the VESAF Fund will consider increasing the proportion of bank stocks, especially banks with competitive advantages in terms of liquidity ratios, diversified loan portfolios and good risk management.

In 2022, banking stocks went through a turbulent period, with only two stocks increasing, namely Vietcombank (VCB) and Bank for Investment and Development of Việt Nam (BID), 25 out of 27 stocks declined, with some decreased by more than 50 per cent. The liquidity of bank stocks also dropped sharply. Even so in 2023, banking stocks are expected to lead the rising wave again after hitting 10-year lows in 2022. However, most likely, the market will have challenges in the first half of 2023, before growing in the second half of the year.

Analysts appreciate banks that have a high proportion of retail lending and demand deposits, or current account savings account (CASA), as well as good liquidity buffers and risk provisions.

In the first week of 2023, bank stocks traded actively. Lê Đức Khanh, analyst at VPS Securities Company, said that it is still too early to judge the growth trend of bank stocks, but most likely, the banking group is leading the market to 1,060 - 1,080 - 1,100 points.

— VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Vietnamese booths launched in French supermarkets

08:15 | 15/01/2023

France's Carrefour Group and the Vietnamese Embassy in the European country on January 13 launched the Vietnamese booths at all supermarkets run by the French retailer, on the occasion of the Vietnamese traditional New Year (Tet).

At Carrefour supermarket in Lyon city, the Vietnamese booth introduced many agricultural products such as rice, spring roll, noodle, and coffee, along with industrial products.
Traditional fruit tray and Chung (glutinous rice cake) were also prepared to give visitors an insight of Vietnamese Tet.

Attractive promotion programs were run on the occasion, aiming to encourage more visitors to try the products.

Addressing the launching of the booth at Lyon Carrefour supermarket, Vietnamese Ambassador Dinh Toan Thang said that this activity marks a step forwards in the Vietnam-France economic and trade partnership right in the time as the two sides are marking the 50th anniversary of the bilateral diplomatic relations and the 10 years of strategic partnership.

For his part, Carrefour Director Rami Baitiéh said that Vietnamese goods are always among the top 20 best-selling agricultural products in the international zone of Carrefour.

He said he has directed all member supermarkets to ensure the supply of Vietnamese products to meet their customers' demand.

Bruno Lebon, Executive Director of Hypermarkets at Carrefour, said that the supermarkets are selling 200 products from Vietnam, adding that the firm plans to organise a number of promotion programmes to better meet the rising demands for Vietnamese products.

Lebon said that Vietnamese rice, coffee and tea are popular among French consumers, and Vietnamese fruits are receiving increasing attention from local shoppers. Therefore, the firm is seeking suppliers of these products.

Last year, Carrefour and the Vietnamese Embassy in France organised three promotion programmes of Vietnamese products.

VNA    LINK

Henig:  Trading in tight range ahead of Tết holidays

January, 16/2023

Experts believe that in the period before the Lunar New Year, the index will fluctuate at a narrow level, but investors can still look for opportunities in short-term positions.

HÀ NỘI — The stock market traded in a narrow range last week, with most industries experiencing a divergence trend. Experts believe that in the period before the Lunar New Year, the index will fluctuate in a narrow level, but investors can still look for opportunities in short-term positions.

The market’s benchmark VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) ended the week at 1.060.17 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) closed at 211.26 points. 

Both benchmarks gained for the week, with the VN-Index rising 0.8 per cent and the HNX-Index up 0.3 per cent. 

Liquidity also did not have a big change, partly reflecting the cautious sentiment of investors in the trading sessions before Tết. Specifically, the average matching volume on HoSE reached nearly 436 million shares per session, down 20.65 per cent over the previous trading week, while the HNX's average matching volume was nearly 51 million shares a session, down 16.52 per cent. 

This was also the reason why the VN-Index had no motivation to hit higher levels.

As the Lunar New Year approaches, investors are often worried. However, it is worth noting that in the last 21 years, the VN-Index has increased 15 times and decreased six times during sessions ahead of the festival. Especially, five days before Tết, the average performance is always positive.

Nguyễn Anh Khoa, Head of Analysis and Investment Consulting Department of Agriseco Securities Company, said that this will be an opportunity for investors to accumulate leading stocks, especially in the VN30 basket, at low prices.

Following a slight increase in the benchmark index and continued low liquidity levels in recent weeks, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) believes that the market will continue to struggle and fluctuate in a narrow range before the holidays.

Experts from VCBS recommend short-term investors take advantage of the uptrend to take profits on short-term speculative stocks while limiting the opening of new transactions until the holiday.

BIDV Securities Company (BSC) forecasts that the VN-Index will continue its sideways trend this week, trading in the range of 1,050 to 1,065 points, and may fluctuate more strongly in the sessions close to Tết. 

Similarly, Yuanta Securities said that the market may extend the sideways trend and trade in a tight range.

If it breaks away from the sideways trend, the short-term cash flow is still quite weak. Furthermore, the short-term sentiment index is still in the negative territory, indicating that investors are still not ready to invest again and that the market is still diverging.

However, the short-term trend of the general market is still up. As a result, Yuanta advises short-term investors to continue to take advantage of correction sessions to increase the proportion of stocks in their portfolio, but not to exceed 50 per cent.

MB Securities (MBS) said that as the VN-Index gained for two consecutive weeks, the upper limit of 1,064 points is still a strong resistance when there is no support from liquidity. 

With a fairly positive breadth, the market is expected to break out of the accumulation zone after the Lunar New Year or remain sideways, but investors will have opportunities with individual stocks. 

VNS   LINK

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Henig:  Insurance companies benefit from interest rate hike in 2023

January, 16/2023

Insurance companies will have the chance to earn higher profits in 2023 thanks to a continual interest rate hike trend.

HÀ NỘI — Insurance companies will have the chance to earn higher profits in 2023 thanks to a continual interest rate hike trend.

It is feasible for insurers to continually increase profits this year as the majority of their investment portfolios are bank savings and government bonds, whose interest rates are forecast to remain at high levels in the year.

According to the current legal regulations, insurers have to use at least 70 per cent of their capital to deposit at banks or buy government bonds to ensure the insurers’ capital safety. Therefore, the current high interest rates of the two channels are an advantage for insurers to increase their profits.

As the interest rate hike trend is forecast to remain in 2023, financial activities of insurance companies are expected to continually record positive results this year.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) last year raised interest rates by a total of 4.25-4.5 per cent per year to curb inflation, the highest rate since January 2008. Fed is expected to continue increasing interest rates in the first quarter of 2023.

The Fed’s interest rate hike caused the money flows to change. Investors have gradually withdrawn in most of the emerging and frontier countries and returned to the US. This pushed the US dollar Index to 104.2 points on December 27 last year, up by 8.6 per cent compared to the beginning of 2022.

Facing the pressure of local currency devaluation, as well as the withdrawal of investment flows, most countries have had to raise interest rates. Việt Nam is no exception, especially when the market is thirsty for capital with the credit growth increasing faster than the capital mobilisation growth. To cope with the difficulties, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) increased policy interest rates twice in September and October 2022, by 1 per cent per year each time.

Under the SBV’s move, the interest rates for 12-month term deposits at banks in 2022 increased by 2-4 per cent per year on average. For example, the 12-month interest rate at BIDV is currently 7.4 per cent per year from 5.5 per cent at the beginning of 2022. Similarly, the rate rose from 5 per cent to 9.1 per cent per year at VPBank, from 5.8 per cent to 8.9 per cent per year at Sacombank, from 5.5 per cent to 7.4 per cent per year at Vietcombank.

The savings interest rates are forecast to remain high or even increase higher in the next six months to 12 months.

As interest rates are high, borrowing costs are expensive, and economic growth is slowing. It is currently a tough time for most businesses. However, this is an opportunity for businesses, including insurance companies, which own a large amount of cash.

Statistics of seven listed insurance companies, including Bảo Việt Holdings (BVH), Bảo Minh Insurance Corporation (BMI), PetroVietnam Insurance Corporation (PVI), Vietnam Reinsurance Corporation (VNR), Post and Telecommunications Insurance Corporation (PTI), Petrolimex Insurance Company (PGI) and Military Insurance Corporation (MIG), showed by the end of the third quarter of 2022, the companies had more than VNĐ127.5 trillion in cash. The cash was short-term financial investments with mainly short-term bank savings, which accounted for some 42 per cent of the companies’ total assets.

As the short-term savings interest rates of banks have been consecutively adjusted up, especially at the end of September and October last year, the VNĐ127.5 trillion short-term financial investments of the insurers have earned significant profits.

According to experts, the financial revenue of insurers often depends on the interest rates of the market. When interest rates increased, the financial revenue of the insurers increases and vice versa.

Data from Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) also showed interest rates tended to go up in the 2009-11 period. They then slowed in the 2011-15 period, and increased again since 2016.

The financial revenue of insurers was also under the same move in the periods. The financial revenue of three typical insurance companies, including BVH, BMI and PVI, also increased from 2009 to 2011, when the interest rates rose in the domestic market. In the period of interest rate decline in 2012-15, the financial revenue of the insurers slowed before increasing again in the 2017-19 period.

In fact, besides the insurance business segment, the financial revenue of insurance companies is often high compared to their total pre-tax profit. Specifically, at BVH, in the 2008-21 period, the insurer’s ratio of financial revenue to pre-tax profit averaged 339.7 per cent. The ratio at BMI and PVI was 102.5 per cent and 150.7 per cent, respectively.

According to Ngô Việt Trung, Director of the Ministry of Finance’s Insurance Supervision Administration, despite difficulties and challenges of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, insurance companies adapted proactively and flexibly, helping the country’s insurance market maintain a good growth rate in 2022.

As of December 12, 2022, insurance premiums in Việt Nam increased 15.1 per cent year-on-year to more than VNĐ251.3 trillion, of which VNĐ68.2 trillion was from non-life insurers and VNĐ183.10 trillion from life insurers.

By December 12, the total assets of insurance companies grew by 14.51 per cent against the beginning of the year to VNĐ811.31 trillion, while equity reached VNĐ162.81 trillion, up 3.83 per cent.

The numbers are positive in the current context, Trung noted, adding insurance companies have actively improved their competitiveness and expanded their operation area.

— VNS  LINK