Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  February 24, 2025

On February 27, 2009 the global financial crisis had been raging for five long months.

Many of us remember it like it was yesterday. Entire economies were ravaged. Some of the world’s largest businesses failed. Others only survived thanks to unprecedented government bailouts. Unemployment surged. Countless people lost their homes.

It was brutal— the worst economic crisis almost everyone had ever experienced. But Warren Buffett, aged 78 years young at the time, was still a cheerleader for America despite all the darkness and gloom.

He wrote to the world in his annual letter, which was released that day:

“Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 21 1/2 % prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.”

In short, he wrote, “America’s best days lie ahead.”

Powerful words at such a dark time. Yet optimism has been Buffett’s consistent tone for decades.

But this weekend his 2024 annual letter was released, and it has a significantly different tone, including some very thinly-veiled criticism that politicians need to spend taxpayer money wisely, and to “maintain a stable currency, [which] requires both wisdom and vigilance”.

It’s hard to argue with that point. We’ve obviously been writing about this for 15 years. And it’s nice to see someone in Buffett’s position finally acknowledge that politicians should spend money responsibly and not run multi-trillion dollar budget deficits.

As it stands today, the US national debt exceeds $36.2 trillion. And in the last fiscal year alone, the government spent $2.4 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue.

In fact according to the government’s own financial report, the single largest increase in cost was interest on the federal debt, which ballooned to more than $1.1 trillion— exceeding even military spending.

As we’ve written many times in the past, if this trend isn’t corrected very quickly, the consequences will likely result in extremely painful inflation.

Buffett acknowledges this when he writes, “Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge.”

True statement. In fact the US is pretty close to the edge right now.

There is a very narrow window of opportunity for the government to cut the deficit, balance the budget, and restore confidence. And it’s obvious that some people are trying really hard to make this happen.

But there’s certainly no guarantee they’ll be successful... which is why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.  Coincidentally, Buffett offers some advice on this front.

For starters, he suggests that a great business can be an excellent hedge against inflation, stating that they “will usually find a way to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s citizenry.”

I couldn’t agree more. We’ve been writing about this for a long time, in particular that real assets make sense because they are the most important, vital, critical resources in an economy.

In more difficult times, including during inflation, people tend to really prioritize how they spend their money. Recreation, luxuries, and frivolous purchases are curtailed. And essential staples like food, energy, healthcare, and other critical categories become the most important.

Businesses similarly cut back on expensive perks and wasteful moonshots and instead invest in productive technologies which enhance their bottom lines.

This aligns entirely with Buffett’s view that “desired” goods and services will still be successful. I would clarify further that “critical” and “essential” goods and services will be successful, especially if they can be exported abroad.

Speaking of looking abroad, Buffett also talks about Berkshire Hathaway’s growing holdings in Japan, under the headline, “Berkshire Increases Its Japanese Investments.”

In my view this is one of the most essential parts of a Plan B— international diversification.

If you live, work, invest and hold all of your savings and assets in the same country, this is the equivalent of putting all of your eggs in one basket. If something goes wrong in that single country, everything you’ve worked to achieve over your entire life can be put at risk.

It’s 2025, not the 15th century anymore. Today it’s easy to diversify around the world. Like Buffett, you can invest a portion of your savings abroad in different economies and currencies.

And money aside, you can also diversify many things in your personal life. You can have a second home abroad, a second residency, and a second passport. You can seek high quality inexpensive healthcare overseas. You can send your children abroad to university to receive a fantastic education at a fraction of the price.

International diversification is a very sensible strategy that rational people take very seriously.

And diversifying abroad doesn’t mean that someone is paranoid, pessimistic, or unpatriotic. I doubt Warren Buffett feels any shame or guilt for diversifying a portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio in the Japanese economy.

As a final point on the topic of investing Buffett writes that, “often, nothing looks compelling.”

By this he means that many times investments seem very expensive. This has been the case with a number of popular companies whose stock prices trade for outrageously high valuations.

For value investors like Buffett who want to buy “wonderful businesses at a fair price,” the best option is to sit patiently and wait for the right buying opportunity.

Yet “very infrequently”, he writes, “we find ourselves knee deep in opportunities.”

And it is in these moments that he becomes very greedy (his word, not mine) to scoop up high quality assets on the cheap.

We’ve been writing for quite some time that there is such an opportunity now.

Gold is presently hovering at an all time high, and there is scope for it to go much higher. If the current deficit trend in the United States continues, we could see $5,000+ gold over the next few years, due primarily to foreign central banks trading their dollars and Treasury bonds for gold.

Yet, despite gold being at an all-time high, there are extremely efficient, well-managed, profitable gold companies with pristine balance sheets whose shares are trading at laughably cheap valuations.

This mismatch doesn’t make any sense. And it absolutely will not last.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/warren-buffetts-advice-for-your-plan-b-152129/