KTFA:
Clare: A report analyzes the dollar crisis: 14 reasons driving the rise of the parallel market rate and widening the price gap in Iraq.
11/12/2026
The head of the “Iraq Future” Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, economist Manar Al-Obaidi, identified on Thursday a set of main reasons that drive the increased demand for the dollar in the parallel market, and the pressure to widen the gap between the official and unofficial prices in Iraq.
Inability to finance trade with Iran
According to a report issued by the organization and published by Al-Obaidi, Iraq is considered one of Iran’s largest trading partners, and the sanctions prevent its trade from being settled through the window or the international banking system, so it is paid in cash or in currencies purchased with dollars.
US restrictions on dollar transfers
The report stated that the US Federal Reserve’s prior scrutiny and the ban on banks dealing in dollars narrow the official supply and push qualified traders towards the parallel market to avoid rejection and delays.
Invoice tampering and importing outside the window
The organization indicated in its report that part of the value of the goods is financed officially and the remainder is paid from the parallel market to reduce customs duties and taxes, in addition to importing from entities not served by the window.
Increased customs tariffs on "high-value" goods
According to the institution, full disclosure and payment of tariffs through the official channel makes its cost uncompetitive compared to the parallel system, which bypasses customs entirely or partially.
Funds that do not enter the formal system
The report noted that the inability to clarify the sources of funds in the face of compliance requirements keeps them in cash outside the system, so they are spent and transferred through the parallel market.
Smuggling dollars to neighboring countries
The “Iraq Future” Foundation considered Iraq to be one of the largest sources of cash dollars in the region, and the demand from countries subject to sanctions and review with neighboring markets comes from its parallel market.
Small traders outside official platforms
The report stated that among the reasons for the high exchange rate was the failure to include small traders in the official platforms for selling dollars, stressing that they cannot access the transfer platforms due to the scarcity of their resources or the small size of their transactions, so they finance imports from the parallel market.
Excess liquidity in dinars
The report noted that the expansion in government spending and salaries is injecting more dinars than dollars are being offered through the window, and the surplus is looking for a store of value.
Hoarding dollars at the expense of the dinar
The report confirmed that households and businesses hold their dollar reserves as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, thus withdrawing the dollar from circulation.
Slow conversion and disruption of capital circulation
The institution criticized the slowness of the transfers, noting that taking days or weeks in the official channel compared to hours in the parallel channel makes the cost of lost time exceed the price difference for many traders.
Banks' reluctance to process small transfers
The report criticized banks for favoring high-value transfers to maximize commissions and reduce compliance costs per transaction, while neglecting or delaying smaller amounts.
Limited spread of money transfer banks
The institution continued to list the reasons, including the concentration of banks capable of transferring funds in Baghdad and some centers without covering all governorates, leaving the local money exchange as the only option.
Expectations of reduction and speculation
The report warned that any discussion about adjusting the official price generates preemptive buying, and money changers speculate on the gap between the two prices, thus exaggerating it. LINK
Courtesy of Dinar Guru: https://www.dinarguru.com/
Thom Article quote "US envoy Tom Barrack says Iraq holds the 'magic key' to resolving regional crises and facilitating dialogue with Iran. He adds that Washington encourages Baghdad to expand trade with its neighbors and supports Iraq’s unity, stability and rule" Iraq is the key to stability in the region.
Frank26 The HCL does not necessarily trigger off the new exchange rate, but...they have to make a change to the exchange rate the moment the HCL is introduced in order to bring the purchasing power of the HCL...If not, the HCL is a joke
Stephen A lot of people don't really understand why the HCL is correlated to an increase in the exchange rate...It is a well-known fact this law is the catalyst for a revaluation. If the HCL gets passed...and we have proof it is in the budget, that's...exciting. That tell me we are very very close...Iraq's constitution states Oil and Gas belong to all Iraqi people...But the legal framework governing those resources has remained contested...US envoy Tom Barack and Kurdistan Prime Minister Mosrour Barzani welcomed progress on...finalizing an oil and gas agreement...They are in the final stages of getting this thing done and this is the reason why the budget is going back and forth right now. This is a big big deal.
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