Learning from Failure
Learning from Failure
Adam M. Grossman | Mar 19, 2023 HumbleDollar
IN THE WEEK SINCE Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed, a debate has raged: Did the government do the right thing when it decided to guarantee all of SVB’s depositors, including those that exceeded FDIC limits?
On one side of this debate are those who view the government’s action as an inappropriate and undeserved bailout. In an article titled “You Should Be Outraged About Silicon Valley Bank,” The Atlantic argued that the bank’s failure was the predictable result of incompetent risk management. Critics further cite a reality of human nature: If bank executives are confident the government will step in to pick up the pieces every time something goes wrong, they won’t be as careful in managing risk. Economists call this “moral hazard.”
On the other side are those who think the government did the right thing. They point to the fact that the crisis was quickly contained, and at a cost that will likely be insignificant. Not surprisingly, the loudest voices in this camp came from Silicon Valley. Before the government stepped in, one venture capitalist warned of a “startup extinction event” if SVB were to fail. He urged the Federal Reserve to, as he put it, “bearhug the situation,” but also argued that this should not be characterized as a bailout and would not create moral hazard.
For better or worse, the crisis was contained, and everyone is now breathing a little easier. But it’s worth asking what we can learn from this incident. I see five lessons:
Rule No. 1 of investing. In a letter to my clients last weekend, I commented that, when it comes to our finances, there’s always something to worry about. Beyond the stock market, which everyone understands to be volatile, investors have lost sleep over investments which are usually perceived to be far safer.
For instance, three years ago, at the start of the pandemic, there was widespread worry about municipal bonds. Earlier this year, with another government shutdown on the radar, investors began discussing the unlikely possibility of a default on Treasury bonds. And despite their infrequency, the failure of SVB, along with that of Signature Bank, serves as a reminder that even the safest instrument available—a bank account—can carry risk.
Fortunately, there is a solution, and it’s an easy one: diversification. It’s not only the simplest tool in an investor’s toolbox, but I believe it’s also the most effective. Back in 2018, I suggested several ways to diversify so as to protect against so-called unknown unknowns. As an example, I cited the 2003 blackout that hit New York City. Among the effects, ATM and credit card networks went offline.
For those without cash to purchase groceries, it was a difficult situation. While it was temporary, these are the sorts of black swan events that can occur. That’s why I recommend diversifying along as many dimensions as possible to guard against whatever the next financial curveball turns out to be.
Rule No. 2 of investing. When it comes to managing our finances, many things are outside our control. That’s why it’s even more important to control what we can. SVB customers whose balances exceeded FDIC limits are lucky the government came to their rescue, but they wouldn’t have needed that support if they’d taken even the simplest of steps.
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