KTFA Monday Night CC Replay and Tuesday News 1-28-2020
KTFA:
Samson: Barclays expects oil prices to be affected by two dollars a barrel due to Corona
28th January, 2020
Barclays Bank said on Tuesday that oil prices will be affected by two dollars a barrel due to the potential economic impact of the outbreak of the Corona virus in China
China confirmed more than 100 deaths and more than 4,000 infected with the virus, prompting authorities to step up preventive measures, impose travel restrictions and extend the Lunar New Year holiday to limit the spread of the virus
The bank expects Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices to fall by two dollars throughout the entire year to 62 and 57 dollars a barrel, respectively
Oil prices have declined over the past six sessions, but the bank says the market's reaction may be overrated
Brent is currently trading near $ 59 a barrel and US crude near $ 53 a barrel LINK
Monday Night CC with Frank, Walkingstick and Delta 1-27-2020
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Don961: Mr. Sadr summarizes the demands of the demonstrators by 3 points
Saleh Muhammad al-Iraqi, spokesman for the Sadrist movement leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, published a picture from Tahrir Square, bearing 3 demands, one of which concerns the candidate for prime minister in the transitional government.
Al-Iraqi posted a post on his account on Facebook today (January 28, 2020), a banner raised by the demonstrators in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, which includes 3 points, under the comment "Our demands":
1- Resolve the new election law
2- Nomination of an incontestable Prime Minister –
3- Set a date for the early elections
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Don961: Trump Offers China Help: Our Experts Are Exceptional
January 27, 2020
Scientists expect the infection of the Corona virus will exceed 40 thousand
Washington — Morsi Abu Touq
Hong Kong AP
US President Donald Trump announced Monday that the United States has offered China help in fighting the spread of a virus Corona, which sparked panic from its spread worldwide. Chirp Trump « We continue very closely with China with regard to the virus » . He added « very few cases monitored in the United States , but we are watching closely. We put on China and President Xi ( Jinping ) any necessary assistance. Our experts are exceptional .
” The researchers from the University of Hong Kong said that the government should take measures « strict »Restriction of people's movements to control the spread of the emerging corona virus, and researchers estimated based on mathematical models that the number of casualties exceeded forty Olva.oukalt World Health Organization said the threat of Corona virus has become the emerging « high » at the international level, China 's first recorded case of death Bkrona in the capital city of Beijing .oosdr these Scientists from the University of Hong Kong warn them after the spread of the virus has accelerated A it led to 80 deaths declared in China
Officially declared 2744 cases in China, including a baby aged nine months, while the number of suspected cases has doubled in 24 hours to reach 6 thousand cases
The research group said Gabriel Leung Director « We must prepare for the possibility of this extraordinary epidemic became an epidemic world » . He added « must take important and tough measures as soon as possible to limit the movements of the population »
On Sunday, Chairman of the Chinese National Health Committee Ma Xiaoyi said that the incubation period for the emerging virus is up to two weeks And that infection is possible during the incubation period, that is, even before the symptoms of infection appear
Based on the mathematical models of the spread of the virus, Leung and his team concluded that the true number of infections far exceeds the toll Announced by authorities that only include officially declared cases
Leong estimated, based on the theory of statistical data, during a press conference in Hong Kong Saturday that « the number of confirmed cases bearing the symptoms must be within 25 or 26 thousand in the first day For the Chinese New Year »
He added that if the cases that are still in the incubation period, and which have not yet been shown to them, are calculated symptoms of the virus, « is approaching the number of 44 thousand »
Saw Leong it can to double the number of casualties every six days, reaching its peak in April / April the May / May in the areas where the epidemic has already found, but acknowledged the possibility of reducing the infection pattern in Once effective public health measures are taken
Wuhan and Hubei Province generally remain the epicenter of the disease. But cases have also been detected in a number of major Chinese cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Canton
Young said « We expect to see the spread of permanent centers of the epidemic in these major cities »
While quarantine considered that « quite sound » , the researcher felt that the measures « may not "It would be sufficient to prevent the epidemic from spreading to other major cities "
The Hong Kong University Institute of Medicine team is a WHO collaborating center in the field Control of infectious diseases LINK
Samson: Historically, how do markets interact in times of viruses and outbreaks?
28th January, 2020
Days she witnessed many developments regarding the "Corona" virus with the fact that the disease spread inside and outside China, but historically, how will the markets and the economy perform in times of epidemic
Investors have recently interacted with updates related to the prevalence of a pneumonia-like disease, as news continues to emerge about the announcement of cases of corona
"There are fears that the Corona virus may spread quickly inside and outside China, which could cause economic and market damages," says Charles Schwab, global investment strategist Geoffrey Kleintop, in a memo quoted by Market Watch
The Corona virus was first detected on December 31 in Wuhan, the capital of the Chinese province of Hubei, but it has spread to other major cities. Eighty-one people have died in China so far as a result of the rapidly spreading virus, with the fact that about 2,681 people have been infected inside the country. The disease has spread outside China to countries such as the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, and others
Ultimately, the severity of the virus will determine the response of markets, as the success of indicators in overcoming infection from past disease outbreaks does not mean that this will be the case this time. The World Health Organization last week avoided declaring a global health emergency, but noted severe consequences in China
The head and chief financial officer of consulting firm "Cumberland" David Cotok wrote in a research note that infectious diseases and epidemics have consequences for the markets as they increase the risks and can be fatal. He continued: "External shocks can hinder economic trends and suddenly change market sentiment. Not all risks lie in economic or monetary policy
In 2003, while the Chinese authorities were struggling to combat the SARS virus, the MSCI Chinese stocks fell more than 10 percent. SARS had infected about 8,100 people with the virus during its outbreak in 2003, with 774 deaths, according to WHO data and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention but the economic damage caused by SARS was more sustainable, according to a study by economists Gong Wha Lee, from the University of Korea, and Warwick Maqueben from the Australian National University. They said during a research paper published in 2004 that the rapidly spreading virus wiped out more than 1 percent of China's gross domestic product and 2.6 percent of Hong Kong's economic growth
It should be noted that during the peak of the spread of the SARS virus in the period from December 2002 to April 2003, the Standard & Poor's index declined by about 8.3 percent, and that the stocks related to discretionary spending and emerging markets (especially China) recorded a weak performance against A jump of 4.8 percent in gold prices. But the markets recovered quickly, in conjunction with the control of SARS, which indicates that in most cases any financial damage will be short-lived, as the chief market economist at Capital Economics in London wrote to “Oliver Jones” during a memo quoted by The Washington Post
Looking at the United States, which reported two cases of the disease in 2020, we find that Wall Street has historically interacted with such outbreaks and rapidly spreading diseases. According to Dow Jones Market data, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index registered gains of 14.59 percent after the first outbreak of SARS in 2002 and 2003, based on the performance of the index in the six months ending in April 2003 but its rise of 20.76 Percentage in the twelve months ended in the same month
Separately, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose nearly 11.66 percent in the six months following the 2006 bird flu virus announcement. But the broader US benchmark gained 18.36 percent in the twelve months to June 2006
The aforementioned data on the performance of stocks worldwide are similar based on the data of "Charles Schwab", where the MSCI index, which follows global stocks, rose by an average of 0.4 percent after a month of the epidemic and 3.1 Percent within the next six months and 8.5 percent a year later
In 2014, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa led to a stoppage of US stocks as investors worried about the negative impact on consumer spending, as the Dow Jones index fell about 7 percent between mid-September and mid-October of the same year
As for the Corona virus, which causes respiratory syndrome in the Middle East, it scared investors from the end of 2012. From November 1, 2012 to December 1, 2012, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined by 0.8 percent, while gold prices rose 0.5 percent. But the broader index quickly recovered from losses much more quickly, gaining 15.1 percent over the next six months
The spread of the virus this year coincides with the country's Lunar New Year holiday, which is usually characterized by travel, leisure and increased consumption by the Chinese people. Analysts at Wells Farges Securities said in a report led by Jay Bryson that celebrating the lunar new year could increase the spread of the virus as well as the economic impact
The epidemic comes at a time when China's economy is experiencing its worst annual growth rate in three decades, with gross domestic product slowing to 6.1 percent in 2019. Wells Fargo analysts added that if the SARS epidemic is used as evidence, the economic impact of the current coronavirus, however, is likely to be temporary
So far, preliminary data on the virus that erupted in the Chinese city of Wuhan indicates that it is less severe, both in terms of infection and severity of impact compared to "SARS", according to analyst at Bank of America "Helen Qiao" in comments reported by "Penzinga
Investigators Robert Sevens, founder of Tom Asai, added during comments commented by Penzinga that investors should be prepared for more headlines on Wuhan which will move markets in the coming weeks. He continued: "From a market perspective, given that this disease is closely related to SARS, I believe that the market's response to the SARS outbreak provides a good model that should be followed
This turmoil comes at a time when Chinese economic growth is already fragile and will unfortunately remove some support in consumer and corporate sentiment from the trade deal between the United States and China, according to the former head of China’s unit at the International Monetary Fund, “Eswar Prasad,” during a comment with a newspaper. Washington Post. He pointed out that the spread of this disease on a larger scale has the potential to disrupt travel, trade and supply chains throughout Asia, with impacts on the global economy, given that Asia is a major driver of global growth
However, experts stress that it is important not to generalize the possibility of unforeseen outcomes from epidemics in economies and markets
Bloomberg cited a 2006 report by Fidelity Investments, indicating that no firm conclusions could be drawn about the effects of epidemics on stock market performance, as stock markets interact unexpectedly with the unknown. However, such events should not be interpreted in isolation, but should be viewed jointly with other prevailing market conditions, the report continued LINK