KTFA Members "News and Views" Wednesday 6-14-2023

KTFA:

Clare:  Today.. the launch of the activities of the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg

6/14/2023

Today, Wednesday, the activities of the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg will start, which will continue until June 17.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is a unique event in the world of economics and business, as it has become a global platform for communication between representatives of the business community and discussion of major economic issues.

It is remarkable in the global economic event, this year, the participation of the United Arab Emirates as a guest of honor.

 This year, the forum will bring together representatives from more than 100 countries, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, China, India and Vietnam.

The forum, which has been held since 1997, will discuss various topics, such as politics, economics, management, technology, development, digitization and the environment.

In 2022, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum witnessed the conclusion of deals and contracts worth about 5.6 trillion rubles ($105 billion), as 695 agreements were signed. LINK

Turk182:  ‘Iraq 2023, Open to the World’, IBBC Mansion House Conference, June 16th, 2023

One would be embarrassed to "Open to the World" within the next 24-Hours, with an absolutely worthless currency.

Not sure how they sent the Budget over to the President for Signatures?  Must have used the "Camel-Express"

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Clare:  Tomorrow... the Emir of Qatar arrives in Baghdad for an "important" visit

6/14/2023

The Iraqi government announced that the Emir of Qatar will arrive in Baghdad tomorrow, Thursday, on a visit it described as "important".

Government spokesman Basem Al-Awadi said, in a statement reported by the official Iraqi news agency, the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, will arrive in Baghdad tomorrow, Thursday.

Al-Awadi added that the visit of the Emir of Qatar has important political and economic dimensions, without giving further details.

Last May, an informed source in the Iraqi government revealed to Shafaq News agency that the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, will pay an official visit to Iraq in June.

The source added that Al-Thani will meet with the three Iraqi presidencies, in addition to a number of Iraqi political leaders, indicating that he will discuss in Baghdad the file of the commercial and investment sector, security cooperation and other files.   LINK

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GameofPatience:  Question for Frank or admins, I’m an attorney and Iraq’s laws require them to amend laws to make changes to them (budget is a law).

Question: even though the budget states the currency value can be changed at anytime, it’s a law and requires amending to make changes. Because it was already approved 1,300 dinar per dollar, it’s not able to be changed without amending it.

What steps will they use to change the rate?    Thanks  

Paulette:  IMO.........The Budget is NOT law yet.........Usually at least 7-10 days to be approved and signed by the President and then 3 days Gazette posting

Clare:  THE BUDGET MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SIGNED imo

Paulette:  Perhaps.........  however, IMO.....Latif has been in Italy and the budget was first "sent" from Parliament yesterday.  In the past, this has not meant that the President "received" it.  I do not recall ever seeing the budget law signed by a President in less than 7 days.  As Latif is a Kurd, his signature will be symbolic of a final "approval" by the Kurds .....

Turk182:  I don't believe that Iraq has the "Luxury" of "slow walking" this thing any further.  The Time is NOW, Action is needed NOW.

StephenMac68:  I know this was addressed to Frank or Admins, but id like to throw in my two cents.

     This brings up various possibilities in the "interpretation" of the Budget Draft Law. The figure of 1300 (internal rate) was agreed upon as a starting point to continue with the budget, a common ground. From there, using those numbers, they could assign various allotments to different ministries, organizations, etc.

     The 1300 figure will not remain at 1300 because the value will change due to the actions of the internal and international markets. Parliament has no control over that. Hopefully, and eventually, that 1300 will get smaller (because the iqd is becoming more valuable), and when it does, the effect will be shared by all parties involved with the iqd equally.

     I think if anyone is responsible for either the success or failure of the IQD, it would be the CBI. And since the Parliament has no authority over the CBI, the ball is always in CBI's hands. Of course, they have assistance via the IMF and possibly input from the AMF, but ultimately, its CBI's baby.

     We were told, "Rate First, then Budget." It happened: Iraq got the rate of 1300, and then the budget was passed.

     Thank you for the fascinating question,

Clare:  Legal: The implementation of the oil agreement between the center and the region will take place immediately after the budget is approved

6/13/2023

Information / Baghdad..

Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi confirmed, on Tuesday, that the oil agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region will be implemented within the budget items as soon as the law is published in the Official Gazette, stressing that the Democratic Party will not challenge the amended budget paragraphs.

 Al-Tamimi said in a statement to Al-Maalouma, that "the implementation of the laws takes place after their approval and from the date of approval after their publication in the Official Gazette, and they do not have a retroactive effect unless they are proven by a legal clause."

He added, "The paragraphs that regulate the relationship between the center and the region, with regard to the oil agreement, will be implemented after the ratification of the law and from the date of its publication in the Official Gazette, and they do not have any retroactive effect."

Al-Tamimi indicated that "all the paragraphs contained in Articles (13, 14 and 15) of the Federal Budget Law are identical to the decision of the Federal Court," stressing that "the Democratic Party will not submit an appeal to those articles with the Federal Court."   LINK

Turk182:  The Gazette is only published on Wednesday's & Saturday's.  Looks like they missed today's chance (Wednesday's edition), so now this is kicked to "maybe" Saturday's edition.  Obviously AFTER Iraq Welcomes the World on Friday.   

What an Embarrassment.    It's like inviting the Homecoming Queen to the Prom, then picking her up in a rusted Yugo, wearing a Wife-Beater Tied-Dye Tee shirt, and ripped jeans shorts.

Not sure what else there is left to say?

Budget was Voted On and Approved, sent to President of Signature

Just waiting on Signature & Posting in Gazette to make it "Official"

Then The implementation of the oil agreement between the center and the region will take place immediately after the budget is approved.

Once that happens, WHAMO - NEW RATE - not days, weeks, or months after... Immediately!  or none of this "Budget" stuff works.  IMO

Ryan1216:  I fully agree with you. After the budget is signed and posted in the Gazette there is nothing left. All IMO

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Clare:  Reuters: Two billion dollars in losses for the Kurdistan region from stopping oil exports within 80 days

6/14/2023

Baghdad

Iraq is working to start technical talks with Turkey by early next week on resuming oil exports from northern Iraq, but hopes appear low that a quick solution can be reached, sources told Reuters.

Turkey stopped Iraq's exports of 450,000 barrels per day through the oil pipeline that extends from the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on March 25.

Reuters calculations indicate that the 80-day stoppage has cost the Kurdistan Regional Government more than two billion dollars.
The two sources, familiar with the discussions, said on condition of anonymity that discussions at a technical level regarding the resumption of exports between Iraq and Turkey are scheduled to take place over the weekend or early next week.

An Iraqi oil official from the state North Oil Company told Reuters that the Turkish state energy company said that the pipeline needs further technical examination before restarting and will send a technical note on the status of the pipeline in the coming days.

The source said that this does not mean the resumption of exports immediately because this decision requires high-level political talks, adding that a Turkish energy delegation is expected to arrive in Baghdad, but he has not set a date yet.

Turkey's decision to suspend exports followed an arbitration decision by the International Chamber of Commerce that ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion in compensation for damages caused by the Kurdistan Regional Government's export of oil without permission from the government in Baghdad between 2014 and 2018.

Attempts to restart the pipeline were delayed by last month's Turkish presidential election and discussions between the Iraqi government's Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) and the KRG over an export deal that has now been reached.

Hopes for the resumption of work were boosted when Turkish President Alp Arslan Bayraktar appointed Minister of Energy and Natural Resources on June 3.

Sources told Reuters earlier that among the issues to be resolved was that Turkey seek to negotiate the amount of compensation ordered by the International Chamber of Commerce.

The sources said they also want to permanently resolve outstanding issues in other open arbitration cases before they agree to resume flows.

Last Monday, the Iraqi parliament approved the 2023 budget, which included some articles that negate the financial independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

And the Kurdistan region suffers from a lack of liquidity due to the interruption of the pipeline, and Iraqi politicians and Kurdish lawmakers said that the region had no other choice but to approve the budget, from which it would receive 12.67 percent of the total 198.9 trillion dinars ($ 153 billion).

The loss in KRG revenue due to the 80-day oil shutdown is more than $2 billion, according to Reuters calculations based on exports of 375,000 barrels per day, plus the KRG's historical discount to the price of Brent crude.

The pipeline was also exporting about 75,000 barrels per day of federal crude.  LINK