Frank, Walkingstick and KTFA Members Tuesday PM 3-10-2020
KTFA:
Don961: In numbers, experts are thinking about the fiscal deficit: Iraq needs $ 70 billion .. What is the solution?
2020-03-09 Follow-up Yassin Iraq:
Iraq entered its rentier economy, on the line of the crisis between the oil giants Russia and Saudi Arabia, after the latter's insistence to flood the market with oil, contrary to the agreement of the Organization of Petroleum Exporters "OPEC".
Economists agree that the collapse of oil prices in urgent contracts, today, Monday, will place Baghdad in front of very difficult options, and perhaps resort to strategic cash reserves. LINK
Walkingstick: Ftti: The GOI expenditures are not paid from the CBI reserves... They are paid from the (oil proceeds fund) established at the US federal reserve...
Iraq draws roughly 1.5 - 2 billion per month from this fund for GOI expenditures... A fund that is believed to contain roughly 35 billion..The CBI, itself... has been urged a number of times by the IMF, maintain a (healthy reserve) considered 6 months of gross expenditures.... ie: foreign currency reserve of roughly 50 billion...
The IMF has also warned against , the continuation of pumping 150+ million into the auction.. A scenario that could be unsustainable, putting the local currency at risk... Adding, to that... They, have been .. cautioned, the use of currency reserves at the CBI should only be used as a weapon of last resort...
Yes, the IMF had recommended in past..Iraq resort to external borrowing in a scenario such as this... Therein, lies the problem...
The CBI is the borrower, but.. it does not borrow money on its own behalf... The CBI borrows money on behalf of the GOI... It is unknown, though unlikely, a caretaker government is in a position of power to request such a loan from the IMF.. It is, certainly illegal .. per Iraqi, law..
Regards.....
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Frank26 Monday Night CC 3-9-2020
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Samson: The Central Bank designs a pooled Islamic financing program (SIFP)
10th March, 2020
In an effort to reduce the unemployment rate and reduce the import gap by supporting
projects that have a positive impact in raising the rate of GDP growth, the Central Bank
of Iraq has provided a monetary approach that combines the methodology of specific monetary policy and the basic conditions for establishing market economies by
designing a program for consolidated Islamic finance (SIFP) ) , Which provides
opportunities for partnership in financing between Islamic and conventional banks
by targeting projects of strategic importance .
This comes at a time when the current economic stage is witnessing a number of
challenges in the production and consumption markets .
The Central Bank of Iraq
information Office
March 10, 2020
DELTA: ESTABLISHING MARKET ECONOMY........... SUPER SAMSON THANK U...
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Don961: New York Stock Exchange suffered the most severe daily loss in 11 years
2 hours ago Agencies - Abu Dhabi
The Wall Street suffered, on Monday, its heaviest daily loss in more than 11 years, in a decline caused by the collapse of oil prices due to the price war launched by Saudi Arabia on Russia and the outbreak of the new Corona virus in the world.
The Dow Jones industrial average losses at the close of 7.79 percent as it fell to 23.85102 points, losing more than two thousand points.
As for the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology companies , its losses reached 7.29 percent, closing at 7,95068 points.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, in turn , tumbled 7.60% to settle at 2.74656 points.
According to Howard Silverblatt, an index specialist at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the S&P 500 lost a total of $ 1870 billion during Monday's session and $ 5,300 billion since February 19, when it hit an all-time high.
Compared to the population of the United States , the loss incurred by the New York Stock Exchange on Monday is equivalent to $ 5682 per person.
For the first time Monday, the Dow Jones index caused a significant decline at the start of the trading session, when it lost more than 7 percent by activating the 15-minute suspension mechanism.
The combined losses of the three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange were about 20 percent each since hitting an all-time high last month.
The losses came as a result of the collapse of oil prices, which fell by 25 percent, after Saudi Arabia decided to reduce oil prices significantly in the wake of its failure to reach an agreement with Russia on production.
On the other hand, the death toll from the emerging virus, Corona virus , continues to rise, exacerbating the panic that prevails in the markets. LINK
Samson: High oil prices after the biggest daily loss in 30 years
10th March, 2020
Oil prices rose 8 percent on Tuesday, to recover from the largest loss recorded in one day in nearly 30 years, while investors are looking for a possible economic stimulus in light of the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the slowdown of new cases of coronavirus in China.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would take “significant” steps to support the US economy in the face of the impact of the Corona Virus outbreak and would consider salary tax cuts with Republican lawmakers in Congress on Tuesday.
By 0605 GMT, Brent crude futures rose $ 2.85, or 8.3 percent, to $37.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $ 2.46, or 7.9 percent, to $ 33.59 a barrel. The benchmarks fell 25 percent on Monday, dropping to their lowest levels since February 2016 and marking the largest percentage decline in one day since January 17, 1991, when oil prices fell when the Gulf War erupted.
Trading volumes in the contract for the closest entitlement to both raw materials reached record highs in the previous session after the collapse of a three-year agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia and other major oil producers to reduce supplies on Friday.
Asian stocks rose and bond yields rose from historic lows, as speculation of coordinated stimulus by central banks and governments around the world calmed the sell-off by panicked investors. Spirits also received a boost after Chinese President Xi Jinping Wuhan visited the epicenter of the outbreak of the Coronavirus, for the first time since the epidemic began, and as the spread of the virus on the Chinese mainland slowed strongly. LINK
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Don961: China sets next April as the date for the launch of the vaccine that the world is waiting for!
19:45 Monday 09 March 2020 Baghdad _ people
"Scientists are about to find a vaccine for the deadly coronavirus (COVID-19), the first of its
kind, and it will be available for emergency use by next April," a Chinese government center
said on Monday.
The director of the Development of Science Center and Technology Commission of the National
Health China Zhong Cheng Wei according to the reported site " Mchabl " American Technical,
today, (March 9 , 2020), "according to our estimates, we hope that the intervention of some
vaccines , clinicalresearch , or be useful in emergency situations, By next April. ”
He added, "Scientists have succeeded in reaching this vaccine through cooperation and
exchange of the genetic sequence of the virus between various Chinese research institutions.
The Chinese announcement comes days after a famous Chinese epidemiologist injected
herself with a new vaccine against the emerging coronavirus, with six members of her team.
"We are doing everything we can to put the vaccine we are developing into the clinical trial
and application phase," said Chen Wei, an officer with the Chinese army. With providing
strong technical support to win this battle, ”she indicated, it usually takes between 12 and
18 months to ensure that vaccines meet safety standards.
Under Chinese law, vaccines can be used in an emergency before that period, if "their
benefits outweigh the risks," according to China's National Medicinal Administration.
And Moderna Biotechnology Company in the United States revealed its own vaccine that it
shipped this month to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to start
human tests, while the director of the institute, Anthony Fushi, warned that even if the
initial safety tests were good, it would take 12 to 18 months to see these vaccines widely
used around the world.
Experts stressed that expediting the use of vaccines outside the specified testing period
may be "ineffective and insecure", considering that China is trying to contain the flood of
criticism directed at it in dealing with the crisis of the spread of the Corona virus, by
appearing as a savior and developing a vaccine without taking the necessary precautions.
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Samson: US Vice President: Our Companies Have Come Up With A Vaccine To Treat The Corona Virus
10th March, 2020
Mike Pence, the American Vice President, announced that US drug companies have reached a new vaccine to treat the Corona virus.
"Drug companies have started vaccine tests," Pence said at a news conference, noting that "25 children in California have been cured."
The vice president added, "The risk of the virus to Americans remains low, and research is continuing in efforts to combat its spread."
It is noteworthy that the new Corona virus appeared in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, in a market for the sale of wild animals, then spread quickly with a massive movement of citizens to spend the Lunar New Year holiday in January. LINK
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Iggy: OVER 50,000 PEOPLE HAVE RECOVERED FROM CORONAVIRUS AROUND THE WORLD, ACCORDING TO JOHNS HOPKINS
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-update-50000-recoveries-global-cases-1490495
Don961: Corona and Political Corona
- 14 Hours Ago
It is no secret to anyone that the emergence of the new coronavirus has aroused grave global concern, and it carries with it many ramifications, the extent of which has not been determined yet, and if there is consensus that it is dangerous to human health, and may have negative repercussions that threaten our lifestyle in the 21st century.
The first cause of turmoil and anxiety is not only the emergence of the virus, as the world previously exposed to viruses, and will face others in the future, but the source of anxiety is due to the fact that the new virus presents an equation that is not clear-cut, not prepared for, and led to confusion and lack of transparency in the initial dealing with its emergence.
The anxiety was exacerbated by the rapid growth in the number of patients, and its rapid spread in a large number of countries around the world, which had several repercussions, including, among other things, placing restrictions on receiving visitors from or traveling to specific areas in China, then from other countries after that In an effort to stop the spread of the virus and avoid its consequences.
Challenges and new events, and a government hesitation in dealing with events, the speed of transmission of events and challenges across borders, airspace and seas, and reactions towards isolationism, are the same features and challenges that we are witnessing politically and economically, or advocated by some in the era of globalization, whether in government interaction, or in The emergence of populist tendencies toward isolationism in small and large countries, democratic and centralized in decision-making.
Will the world go through the "political corona" stage?
All indications point to this. The contemporary international system was established in the aftermath of World War II, on the basis of a balance of power between the Western Atlantic Alliance and the eastern Warsaw Pact, with a third group complementing the scene, namely the non-aligned countries.
This was accompanied by the development of the most important international charters, the first of which is the Charter of the United Nations, and the adoption of a number of economic documents in the crucible of Bretton Woods, in the context of which the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were established, as well as a set of documents and treaties to arrange international situations, for example the Universal Declaration of Human Rights , And arms control agreements, the NPT ... etc.
These documents and treaties defined the balance of political power that existed at the time as the basis for the movement's drive for the contemporary international system for more than half a century, and it remained stable and exists in general, despite being subjected to various challenges in light of the tension and attraction between the two allies, or with the non-aligned developing countries, which were The number is increasing as a result of it getting more independence from the old European colonialism, each with its aspirations and stances.
The situation was not fair in the past century, and there were numerous violations by the major powers over the rights of others, but international competition maintained stability in general, until the end of the eighties and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact with which he headed, so the balance that was providing some deterrent controls was disturbed by the actions of the two allies. .
International law remained the only pillar of the stability of the international system, and it was subjected to more challenges and irregularities with the growing willingness of various countries to overcome and ignore it, especially those that enjoyed security, political and economic superiority at the international or regional levels, and among these violations are the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the genocide in Rwanda, the war in Syria and Libya, and many other examples that have come to characterize the past few decades.
With the increasing rates and speed of international globalization, driven by huge technological developments in the field of communications and information transmission, new circumstances, achievements and challenges have arisen between governments and peoples from one moment to the next, and rapid, uncontrolled communication has occurred for peoples and goods, providing enormous opportunities, as well as many problems and challenges.
Among the main drivers of globalization are neoliberal policies, such as free trade and privatization, which were required of developing countries to implement them quickly, regardless of their conditions and competitiveness. However, some in developed countries feared competition from more efficient markets and less expensive employment, and several isolated and right-wing currents appeared in West, East, North, and South, and the popular and national trend has grown towards focusing on personal interests at the expense of societal and national and at the expense of regional and regional at the expense of international and global interests.
The problem lies in the fact that the rates of change in the era of globalization came very fast, and posed a real challenge to stability and traditional identity, as well as that the economic aspect of globalization was applied without giving great importance to the different circumstances and special considerations of other least developed countries, as well as to the differences of cultures between societies.
What we have seen from spontaneous reactions to the new virus is the same that we have seen politically and economically during the past decades in front of the challenges of globalization, and the best ways to deal with this new challenge medically are very similar to the correct ways to deal politically, economically and socially with the challenges of the globalization era, namely cooperation in accordance with the rules International and agreed upon, as cases of health crises and emergencies require transparency between governments, states and societies, cooperation and interaction in accordance with international protocols, rules and laws in the context of the international multilateral system in which we live, including respect for all countries health rules In relation to the Corona virus, cooperation is required in implementing three initiatives to support the capabilities of countries in detecting, evaluating and reporting public health events, and granting the World Health Organization the coordinating role to build this capacity, and taking specific measures in transportation such as ports, airports, and land crossings, to reduce The spread of health risks, without
There are also lessons from dealing with the new Corona virus that can be used in our political dealings, the most important of which are:
1- That technological development, globalization, and considerations of market economies will all remain part of the future societal equation, with all its pros and cons.
2- We live in an integrated world, and we depend on each other, and therefore cooperation is a necessity, isolationism and unilateral decisions are a chain bound to failure in the long run. Fast and as much as possible.
3- That pluralism and setting the rules for collective preventive action are better and safer in the long-term and strategic, and that giving priority to immediate needs at the expense of the long-term interest is not a solution, but rather inevitably takes us from one problem to another.
4- That confronting urgent problems will require from time to time precautionary measures by states and governments, but they must be in accordance with the need and for specific and limited periods.
5- The importance of having strong and effective governmental authorities and agencies, knowing that their strength and success will depend on their success in educating their people and communicating with them with credibility.
6- The necessity of respecting international law, general rules and equal rights of peoples in order to preserve international stability from fluctuations in the balance of power and emerging international challenges, in order to ensure states' commitment to their obligations.
7 - That dealing with issues in an international, prior, preventive and strategic framework is not a necessity, but a necessity, including for example climate change, the scarcity of available freshwater quantities, extremism and terrorism, the militarization of security concepts, the excessive use of force to resolve disputes, and employing modern technology to develop Military capabilities, including outer space.
Nabil Fahmy
Independent Arabic LINK