Frank, MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Friday PM "China Syndrome" 5-15-2020

KTFA:

Frank26:  THIS IS WHAT OUR FF SAW  ........ TOO BAD SOME DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS ..... THAT'S MY 3RD SENSE ......(smile)

Don961:  Parliamentary source: Al-Kazemi's government will print the currency to pay employee salaries

Thursday 14 May 2020 | 3:30 pm   Baghdad / ...

Parliamentary source confirmed, Thursday, that the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi will go to print a new local currency in order to pay the salaries of employees.

The source said to "Eye of Iraq News", "This measure is one of the solutions to overcome this economic crisis that is ravaging the country, so it is necessary to find harmless solutions for future generations such as the use of cash or gold reserves in the central bank."

He pointed out that we, "after the application of this procedure, we expect a decrease in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar," stressing that "this will have a positive impact on activating the industry in Iraq and not resorting to global or regional markets that provide goods to Iraq at low prices because of the high exchange rate The dinar compared to the price of currencies in Turkey, Iran and others.

 "The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, had determined, on Wednesday, the loan disbursements that the government intends to request from home and abroad.

Saleh said in a press statement, "The government submitted a draft law to Parliament in order to authorize it to borrow from internal and external financing sources, in order to bridge the deficit and enhance public financial liquidity when necessary." And, "The borrowing came because of the financial hardship that the country is going through, and in order to bridge the revenue deficit gap against fixed expenditures, especially in the operating budget."

He added, "The legal cover did not provide the government with internal and external borrowing, due to the lack of a federal budget law for the year 2020." He pointed out that "internal or external loans will be included in the event of legislation for the budget for the year 2020 or its alternative the final account at the end of the fiscal year (as a reality)."

Saleh said, "External loans will go toward supporting investment projects and completing the stalled ones and the urgent need to launch them, while internal loans will be allocated towards the operational budget in the government's needs for insurance of salaries and others."

It is mentioned that the Iraqi Council of Ministers approved the draft of the domestic and foreign borrowing law to finance the fiscal deficit for the year 2020 and refer it to the parliament in accordance with the provisions of the constitutional articles. Finished  LINK  

OneWildRide:  IMO... This is our China syndrome article. With all that's going on it's hard NOT to get excited.

Currency auctions shut down.
ISX shut down.
Three day holiday coming up.
Citizens getting paid with a new currency. Lol (lower denoms)
A new Government. (Stability)

As Frankie says "Come on man"

Even a blind man can read the writing on this wall.

I will admit it has been OneWildRide

2Cents:   IMO, I have learned through the 11 years of reading translated articles, I have learned that the problem with looking at just one article is that the precise meaning is hard to glean.....Often reading just the titles is even more misleading...to find the proper meaning, many articles on the same or similar subject matter, perhaps even over weeks, must be read and put together.....

IMO, The "printing of currency" refers to what the Iranian influenced politicians are pushing........This is in essence amounts to quantitative easing, increasing the money supply and decreasing the rate of the dinar against the dollar.  

They are advocating reducing the rate to 1300 or even 1400 based on the articles......This would then result in increased cost to bring in imports as it would require more IQD to purchase USD for remittances....so the National product would have more appeal as it could be sold cheaper....

This is how they are trying to "sell" that there would be benefits to the country if they would increase the money supply by just printing more money and decreasing the rate.....

lIMO, this is there last ditch effort to stop what we believe to be the inevitable and that which we hope for.....

IMSO, we certainly do not want them to go down the path that Iran is wanting to just print more money and decrease the rate....

Frank26:  CLEAR AND DIRECT OBVIOUS NEEDS NO FURTHER EXPLANATION WHEN FIRST GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO.    UNDERSTOOD VERY WELL IN MY SPIRIT.  THANK YOU.

Samson:  - I believe 2cents is referring to what we have always been told that when this is about to hit there will be conflicting news that it won't happen - a China Syndrome effect.

Purifiers:    I AGREE SAMSON.... IMO, COULD THIS WELL BE "OUR"... "CHINA SYNDROME"?... THE NEGATIVE... BEFORE WE SEE THE POSITIVE??? A KODAK MOMENT... IN FILM PHOTOGRAPHY... IMO... YOU MUST HAVE A "NEGATIVE" TO CREATE A "POSITIVE"... END RESULT...A "PHOTOGRAPH"  MOMENT IN TIME, OF TRUTH... CAPTURED!!! METAPHOR OR NOT... SEEMS THAT THIS ARTICLE, IS TRYING TO POINT AWAY FROM THE "OBVIOUS" IMO

Frank26:  EVEN DOWN UNDER ............. UNDERSTANDS….LOL

MilitiaMan:  It takes some doing to understand the key points to articles. It also takes memory of who says what and what actions have they taken to support those actions. Alak is the one who spoke of value to loans last year. Alak spoke of not devaluing the currency and that they have done a good job keeping the exchange rate stable. So if the Dinar decrease from 1190 to say 1000 or 500 or to .85, the decrease in exchange rate to the dollar brings value! By actions and data from the CBI, IMF, World Bank, UST and the above imo they are about to bring value needed and the USA specifically said they supported monetary and economic reforms. In fact the world does!!! Imo ~ MM

JJimmyJJ:  It may be helpful to remember that much of the Iraqi public has a 4th grade education.  So "increasing the exchange rate by giving you fewer notes of less value" may not compute.

But,  "solve the financial crisis by decreasing the exchange rate" just might.

2Cents:  I will pretty well be out of touch until next Thursday….IMO. Nothing "big" will occur until then......Watching and waiting for Eid......."After Eid and before the New Year"   ---- Sinan al Shabbibi

2Cents:  IMO, Follow and understand payroll and the procedure that has to occur by the MOF (minister of finance) and you will see that we are still at least 6 days away.  What I posted is positive, not negative, as change appears imminent whether now, weeks or months away.  WE have never seen Iraq move as quickly as they are under Khadimi.

"BOY (beginning of year), middle or EOY" (end of year) -----Saleh (whom I have never listened to.  He has been at CBI and then economic advisor to Abadi and Mahdi.  I believe he is likely DS and has engaged as many do that either want to hide the truth or really don't know the truth - "baffle them in BS")

Weak currency increases import costs and therefore theoretically people will look to National Product

Strong currency decreases import costs and theoretically turn away from National Product

Printing more money, increasing the money supply weakens the currency.

Articles state 1300, 1400

IMO, ALL IS GOOD.....Look at what has occurred in the first week of Khadimi including but not limited to

Kuwait meeting:  "How do we get the donor conference money released?"  Answer: "...officially be acknowledged by the US, UST, WB, UN and the IMF that you have accepted Article VIII obligations...."

So, 

US ------> check, talked with DT personally
UST------> check, talked with DT personally
WB ------> check, meeting and they gave full support
UN-------> check, addressed UN and they gave full support
IMF------->   ?

It should be obvious what WE are looking for...........(it may be after the fact but WS may report,  time will tell)

Samson:  An economist is surprised to continue wasting huge amounts of money through the currency auction, and no action has been taken yet !!   LINK

MilitiaMan:  It is now FRONT and CENTER now to STOP the AUCTIONS.. Open the corruption files!! I'll bet, the new PM has already had that in the briefcase of things to do.. imo ~ MM

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Samson:  Victory Coalition: Al-Kazemi is able to establish a correct process that contributes to the introduction of new revenue for the budget

15th May, 2020

On Friday, the victory coalition affirmed the ability of the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to establish a "correct process" that would contribute to the introduction of new revenues for the budget.

The leader of the victory coalition, Aqeel al-Rudaini, told the official agency, "The biggest challenges facing the Al-Kazemi government are not only salaries, the economic situation and the Corona epidemic, but the biggest challenge is how to restore the state's prestige and win the people's trust, especially since 80% of citizens did not participate in the 2018 elections and this indicates On the existence of a hostile tendency between the political class and citizens."

He added that "the other challenge is the decline in oil prices and its impact on the economic situation," noting that "this crisis needs to develop alternative plans such as encouraging industry, agriculture, border ports and taxes, and this needs a long time, but it is possible for Al-Kazemi to establish a correct process. It is possible to introduce new revenues to the budget."

He continued, "The most important other challenge is to confine arms to the state, as there are a lot of weapons outside the scope of the state," stressing "the importance of working with two parallel lines and that there are external agreements to schedule the exit of US and Turkish forces in northern Iraq and this enables them to disarm."   LINK

MilitiaMan:  The country of Iraq lost their prestige in the exchange rate of the Dinar due to the conditions from the Saddam era and to now restore the prestige is to bring value back to the country via the REER applied to the currency.

Back to the Glory Days if you will. Prestige is important to currencies. Just as the British Pound lost her prestige after World War II, the opposite can occur with having mopped up the excess currency in the markets over time.

We watched a video of the CBI destroying large category notes and in massive quantities. To thus allow room for the new currency they have already printed to be introduced that will be new to the citizens.. Most are not old enough to have used the small category notes, coins or fils.. They lost their prestige and the latter went away.

Now it is time to restore the prestige with new small category noted, coins and fils.. imo.. That will bring usher in the new revenues he mentions.. Reconstruction of the country will bring many new revenues from around the world.. Big Time too. imo We are in a very sweet spot.. oh ya! The PM just leaked out the minutes of that crisis cell meeting from the looks of it.. lol imo ~ MM  

MilitiaMan:  The PM is speaking in terms as noted in 194 and 195 about things that will bring value.. imo..  The article i found from the WORLD BANK and the CBI about an agreement for asset portfolio management is in place. They need to RI to get international. The UNSC meeting was imo after the Crisis Cell metting with the money guys in Iraq, i.e., Minister of Planing, Minister of Finance, etc.. The PM is talking about restoring prestige and getting new sources of revenues.. Well Kuwait conference, is  billions of reasons to RI.. lol imo ~ MM

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Samson:  Lebanon is preparing for fundamental structural changes in its economy

17:30 - 05/15/2020

The Lebanese government announced today, Friday, its serious intention to reduce the number of commercial banks from 49 to about half in the country.

This was stated by the Lebanese Finance Minister, Ghazi Wazni, during an interview with "France Press", where he said: "We are ready to meet the request of the International Monetary Fund to float the exchange rate of the lira, but after receiving external support, provided that in the next stage a price Flexible exchange."

My weight said: “The IMF has always called for the liberalization of the exchange rate of the lira. They want to unify exchange rates and flotation, but the Lebanese government requested a transitional phase that passes the flexible exchange rate before we reach the flotation. ”

My weight pointed out that "we have to adjust the stabilization policy to the flexible exchange rate policy in the first stage and in the foreseeable future, and when we receive financial support from abroad we move to floatation," declaring that "the government wants to reduce the number of commercial banks numbering about 49 to about Half, as part of a reform plan that includes restructuring the banking sector.”

He explained that "the structuring of the banks will be step by step and there are several options for treatment, including consolidation, which is normal," adding "in Lebanon 49 commercial banks, and it is natural for the number to decrease to about half in the next stage."

On Friday, the Central Bank of Lebanon announced that it had made a decision to provide the US dollar for imports at an exchange rate of 3,200 Lebanese pounds, with the aim of reducing food prices.

The Reuters news agency quoted the Central Bank of Lebanon statement, which stated: “The Bank of Lebanon will continue to pump the cash dollars it acquires through banks, in order to finance the import at a price of 3,200 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar, with the aim of reducing food prices.” LINK

Don961:  imo ... like Iraq ... IMF doesn't want multiple exchange rates that can be exploited by speculators and banks .. without any tangible progress being made in the lives of the citizens by messing up the REER ... with multiple exchange rates in the markets