Crisis 2033 Is Eight Years Away. Are You Ready?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)   July 8, 2025

US President Dwight D. Eisenhower was absolutely terrified of inflation.

 And that’s really saying something for a guy who had commanded Allied forces against the Nazis, faced down the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and overseen the dawn of the Atomic Age.

 Sure, those threats might seem more serious than a 5% increase in the price of milk. But Eisenhower felt strongly that inflation was a matter of national security.

I’m Far More Concerned About The Deficit Than World War 3

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 24, 2025

I can understand why so many people are worried about World War 3 breaking out. It’s a completely rational concern. I just don’t happen to share it.

Why? Because regardless of the debate over whether the US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities were a good idea, or a reckless risk of another expensive foreign entanglement, one thing is indisputable: America reminded the world of its immense military capabilities.

The Missing Part RE: Iran— No Rational Discussion About Costs

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 23, 2025

If the Land of the Free wasn’t already divided heavily along ideological lines, it is even more so after the US military bombings in Iran over the weekend. Even on the political right, which would ordinarily be unified over a US military engagement, there seem to be two distinct camps.

On the one hand, there are those who hold the view that America doesn’t need more foreign entanglements.

$1.2 Trillion Later, and Air Traffic Control is Still Using Floppy Disks

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 18, 2025

In 1988, a Professor of Anthropology at the University of New Mexico named Joseph Tainter published a book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. 

Now, “collapse” is a strong word that conjures images of apocalyptic scenarios... Mad Max or Hunger Games drama. But that’s not what Tainter intended.

He uses the term ‘collapse’ in its academic, anthropological meaning, i.e. a breakdown of strength and order in  society. In fact Tainter’s entire career has been devoted to investigating how large, sophisticated civilizations throughout history ultimately “collapsed”.

Some Clear Thinking On Why World War III Is NOT Happening Anytime Soon [Podcast]

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 17, 2025

Today’s topic is so far-reaching, deep, and important that we had to dedicate an entire podcast episode to it.  Frankly, it is one of the most interesting we have ever done. With so much conflict in the world—and the potential for even more escalation, particularly in the Middle East—we have heard a lot of worry, concern, and even hyperbole in the media about “World War III.”

I actually have the opposite view: that after the recent strikes and counter-strikes between Israel and Iran, I wholeheartedly believe that World War III is far less likely than it was even just a couple of months ago.

153% Gain in Three Months

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 11, 2025

We’ve been extremely consistent—practically shouting from the rooftops over the last year—that there was an absolutely outrageous investment trend that was going to make people who were paying attention a lot of money… and it wasn’t going to last.

What we’ve been saying over and over is that gold’s bull run was just beginning. At $2,000, we said it wasn’t the end. At $3,000, we said it wasn’t the end…  But the bizarre anomaly was that while gold was heading to all-time highs, gold stocks were still remarkably cheap.