DINARRECAPS8 2/9/25 DINARRECAPS8 2/9/25

The “Wait and See” Phase for Gold is Over

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 6, 2025

In the year 1025, the Byzantine Empire stood at the height of its final golden age.

Basil II had just died, leaving behind a vast and wealthy empire stretching from Southern Italy to Armenia. At the heart of its economy was the solidus, a gold coin that had served as the bedrock of Mediterranean trade for centuries. Merchants from Venice to Baghdad had so much confidence in its purity that the solidus became the primary currency for international trade as far away as China.

DINARRECAPS8 2/8/25 DINARRECAPS8 2/8/25

How to Buy Gold at Just $1,500 an Ounce

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 5, 2025

In the late 1990s, the Internet was brand new... and sizzling hot. And most people thought it would bring radical change to the world, practically overnight.

This is a common theme with disruptive technology. Enthusiasts often overestimate the impact of new technology in the short run, and underestimate its impact in the long run. Such is the case with AI today.

But the euphoria over the Internet in the 1990s compelled investors to pour money into Internet startups— companies with no profits, no cash flow, and no real business model.

DINARRECAPS8 2/6/25 DINARRECAPS8 2/6/25

This Trade War Might Be The Straw That Breaks The US Dollar’s Back.

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 3, 2025

It was early spring in the year 1171 AD when Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos decided to go to war against his much smaller ally-- Venice. And the historical record shows that it was a really bad idea.

The Byzantine Empire was still a vast and powerful state by the late 12th century. But it was becoming obvious to anyone paying attention that they were in serious decline.

The Byzantine treasury was almost always empty. Imperial debt was piling up left and right. Byzantine borders were constantly being invaded by Muslim hordes. And the imperial coin-- the gold solidus-- was beginning to fall out of favor as the dominant currency for international trade.

DINARRECAPS8 2/5/25 DINARRECAPS8 2/5/25

This Will Likely Be A Really Big Deal For Gold

Notes From the field by James Hickman (Simon Black) February 4, 2025

Well that was fast.

The smoke had barely cleared on the opening salvo of the Great North American trade war, when all sides called a truce to talk out their differences.

Just as we wrote yesterday, this is exactly what I was hoping would happen. In fact, in a Zoom call that Peter and I had Friday with our Total Access members, we predicted this outcome: that the trade wars were just an elaborate show to demonstrate to the world that America is willing to make good on its threats, and force everybody to the negotiation table.

DINARRECAPS8 1/30/25 DINARRECAPS8 1/30/25

Even the US Government is Worried There Won’t Be Enough Electricity

Notes From the Field January 27, 2025 By James Hickman ( Simon Black

It was known as the “Timber Famine” in 18th-century Great Britain. And it was no exaggeration to say that it was a national crisis: Britain was running out of wood.

The first major reason was population growth; wood was the major material and fuel source of the era, used for cooking, heating, and construction. And Britain’s booming population growth created insatiable demand for timber.

DINARRECAPS8 1/29/25 DINARRECAPS8 1/29/25

It’s like a Netflix and a Half Just Vanished Yesterday.

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) January 28, 2025

Yesterday, Nvidia—the company which makes GPUs, including for AI— suffered the largest single-day market value loss in history.

The stock dropped 17.4% wiping $600 billion from its valuation in hours, and actually pulling the entire Nasdaq Composite down 3.4%.

To put that in perspective, this amount of value loss is like if the entire company of Netflix AND AT&T simply disappeared.

DINARRECAPS8 1/23/25 DINARRECAPS8 1/23/25

Is the New Golden Age Possible? We Do the Math

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) January 23, 2025

The Wall Street Journal this morning released its latest economic forecast survey. This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc. One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

DINARRECAPS8 1/23/25 DINARRECAPS8 1/23/25

Some Thoughts On Today’s Record High Prices

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) January 22 2025

Herbert Hoover was an unstoppable force in 1928.

The Roaring Twenties were in full swing. Prosperity (it seemed) was everywhere. The stock market was soaring. People were making money hand over fist. And Hoover was the ‘status quo’ Presidential candidate that year.

In other words, a vote for Hoover was a vote for the good times to continue. And the guy vanquished his opponent on election day, November 6, 1928, by one of the most lopsided margins in history up to that point.

So the euphoria continued. In the four months between Hoover’s election victory in November, and his inauguration in early March, the stock market soared by more than 20%.

DINARRECAPS8 1/22/25 DINARRECAPS8 1/22/25

Is this America 3.0? One Key Question to Ask Yourself

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) January 21, 2025

When the Founding Fathers put the finishing touches on the Constitution in late September of 1787, they probably had no idea whether or not it would be formally adopted by the states. There had been intense debate. Criticism. Dissent. And so the ratification of the Constitution was by no means guaranteed. Delaware became the first state to ratify the document on December 7, 1787. Then Pennsylvania and New Jersey within the same month.

But Article VII stated that the Constitution would not be considered valid unless formally approved by at least nine states. And that milestone wasn’t reached until June 21, 1788 when the state of New Hampshire ratified the Constitution.

DINARRECAPS8 12/19/24 DINARRECAPS8 12/19/24

The Fed Saves Its Own XXX at Your Expense

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 19, 2024

Marco Polo never actually set foot on Japanese soil. But that didn’t stop him from writing the most wildly exaggerated tales about the immense, incredible wealth of Japan-- which he called Cipangu.

Supposedly Marco Polo had spoken to merchants and traders who’d been there, but it’s entirely possible he made it all up—typical for Marco Polo and his tall tales.

Nevertheless, about a century and a half later, a young Italian sailor devoured Polo’s writings and became convinced he had to lead an expedition to Cipangu and exploit the unimaginable wealth described in Polo’s stories.

DINARRECAPS8 12/14/24 DINARRECAPS8 12/14/24

The Most Insolvent Bank In The History Of The World Is. …..

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 12, 2024

As the 1800s came to a close and the world propelled itself full of innovation and optimism into the 20th century, there was perhaps nowhere else on the planet more admired and envied (except for the United States) than Argentina.

In fact, just like America in the late 1800s and early 1900s, Argentina was overflowing with immigrants from all over the world looking for a better way of life in that land of opportunity.

DINARRECAPS8 12/11/24 DINARRECAPS8 12/11/24

Great News If You Own A Company

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 7, 2024

Right at the beginning of the year in early January, I wrote to you about one of the dumbest laws to hit the books in the Land of the Free in a VERY long time. It’s called the Corporate Transparency Act.

DINARRECAPS8 12/10/24 DINARRECAPS8 12/10/24

What Does It Mean To Have A Plan B?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 10, 2024

What does it really mean to have a Plan B— especially these days?

We’ve used the term Plan B for almost the entire 15 years since I started this business in 2009.

Back then the national debt was really starting to become a major problem. The Federal Reserve was printing trillions of dollars to bail out irresponsible bankers. The economy was on the ropes after the Global Financial Crisis.