DINARRECAPS8 9/9/24 DINARRECAPS8 9/9/24

Shocker: Iran Funneling Billions Through the Fed’s System

Notes From The Field By James Hickman / Simon Black September 9, 2024

When I was a kid growing up in the 1980s, my father used to go every summer for two weeks of military training as part of his commitment to the US Army Reserve. And whenever he flew home, we would always meet him at the airport.

But back then, my mom, sister, and I could all go straight through security and sit at the gate to wait for him. In fact that was normal all the way through the late 1990s.

Then, of course, everything changed after 9/11. The federal government took over airport security overnight, and for the past 23 years, we’ve been taking off our shoes, getting fondled by federal agents, and throwing away our liquids.

More than two decades after 9/11, most of these TSA Security rules (the majority of which have been adopted around the world) seem pretty stupid.

DINARRECAPS8 9/5/24 DINARRECAPS8 9/5/24

Three Key Trends That Will Shape the Future of America

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black September 5, 2024

You wouldn’t be especially impressed by someone’s insight if they told you that the world today is full of turmoil. That’s obvious— from wars and cultural clashes to cost of living crises and a pervasive sense of negativity.

More impressive is that William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted that the 2020’s would be like this nearly three decades ago in their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning.

According to their theory, societies move through cycles approximately 80-100 years long, with each cycle divided into four distinct "turnings." These phases mirror the seasons, with the Fourth Turning representing the harsh winter—a period of upheaval and transformation.

Strauss and Howe predicted that the next Fourth Turning would begin in the mid-2000s, ignited by a crisis that would set the stage for significant societal change.

DINARRECAPS8 8/28/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/28/24

How Genghis Khan Is Driving Your Grocery Bill Higher

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black August 27, 2024

Over eight hundred years ago, in what is now northwestern China, the Uyghur people— long before they were carted off to internment camps by the Communist Party— ruled their own independent kingdom, known as Qocho.

Then, in the year 1209, Genghis Khan sent diplomatic emissaries to Qocho. The message was clear: the Great Khan wanted to avoid a bloody military campaign, and he proposed a peace offering instead.

Genghis Khan’s deal was simple: the Uyghur people would keep their rulers, their infrastructure, their religion, and their customs. Their soldiers would live. Their buildings would not burn. Their women would not be touched. They would even be granted a high degree of autonomy.

DINARRECAPS8 8/27/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/27/24

The “Good Ship Transitory” Sank - The Captain Is Joking About It

Schiff Sovereign - August 26, 2024 By Peter Schiff

It almost sounded like an apology. Almost.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stood in front of reporters and explained how we got here... and how inflation took hold.

To be fair, he rightly diagnosed the root causes: extreme government spending and money printing during the pandemic. And then, when the economy reopened after the lockdowns, there was a sudden surge in inflation.

The Fed and its army of experts assumed this inflation would be a temporary phenomenon—what they called “transitory.” They said that, due to the pandemic lockdowns being lifted, prices would rise suddenly, then fall back down.

DINARRECAPS8 8/13/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/13/24

Can Elon Musk Save The US Dollar?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black August 13, 2024

I was one of the millions of people listening to the live conversation last night between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

And if you missed it, Trump was Trump. You pretty much know exactly what you’re getting with him, and there weren’t any major revelations.

Elon, on the other hand, came off as a genuinely concerned citizen who recognizes the problems facing the country and is exasperated why the people in charge aren’t implementing common sense solutions.

Honestly, I feel bad for the guy; Elon is blasted as a hard-core, right-wing nut job… and there are people who literally want to put him in prison because of his views.

But last night he said things like:

DINARRECAPS8 8/7/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/7/24

The Federal Reserve Is Missing What Seems To Be Obvious To Everyone Else

Notes From The Field By Peter Schiff August 7, 2024

On Wednesday, March 8, 2023, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was sworn in for testimony in front of members of Congress to deliver remarks about the state of the US economy.

Inflation had been raging for well over a year at that point, and, in response, the Fed had rapidly increased interest rates to levels not seen since 2007.

But nothing happens in a vacuum. The Fed cannot expect to jack up rates without some major consequences. And concerned members of Congress asked the Chairman about these potential consequences.

But Chairman Powell played them off, practically dismissing any risk to their raising rates and ‘tightening’ monetary policy, saying “nothing about the data suggests we’ve tightened too much. . .”

DINARRECAPS8 8/5/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/5/24

This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things.

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black August 5, 2024

Athenian general Miltiades was already a hero across ancient Greece when he set sail for the island of Paros in 489 BC.

Born into stardom as the son and nephew of famous Olympic champions, Miltiades made a name for himself as one of the most important and successful commanders in the Greek war against Persia.

In fact, Miltiades was responsible for devising the incredibly unique, surprise battle plan that confounded the Persian army at the Battle of Marathon in 490 BC. The Greeks were vastly outnumbered and outmatched... but they annihilated the Persians thanks to Miltiades’ tactical genius, making him an instant celebrity-hero throughout the region.

DINARRECAPS8 8/1/24 DINARRECAPS8 8/1/24

This Is One Of The Only Ways They Can Tame Inflation And Save The Dollar

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black July 31, 2024

There are only seven countries in the world that have a GDP in excess of $3 trillion: the United States. China. Germany. Japan. India. United Kingdom. And France.

Microsoft’s current market capitalization is also right around $3 trillion… which means that out of the 193 countries in the world that are recognized by the United Nations, 186 of them have an economy that’s smaller than Microsoft. Crazy.

Of course, much of Microsoft’s meteoric growth has taken place over the past three years because of the AI boom. And just like Nvidia is considered the most important hardware company in AI, Microsoft has positioned itself as the most important software company in AI… and they’re pretty much betting the business on it.

DINARRECAPS8 7/16/24 DINARRECAPS8 7/16/24

“Inflationary Forces”? Duh

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black 7-16-24

Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, one of the world’s largest banks. And last week he issued a stern warning on the bank’s quarterly earnings call that “multiple inflationary forces” are still lurking.

File that one away under “duh”. It should be completely obvious to just about anyone paying attention to the world that many of the key drivers that rocketed inflation higher are still with us.

The Federal Reserve, of course, desperately wants to pretend that inflation is in the rear-view mirror, never to return. And they keep insisting that the downward trend of inflation justifies their interest rate cuts.

But as Mr. Dimon points out, “large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world” all create high risk of substantial inflation.

We agree with him.

DINARRECAPS8 7/11/24 DINARRECAPS8 7/11/24

3 Real Assets Primed For Growth In The Coming Inflation Bonanza

Notes From The Field By James Hickman/Simon Black 7-11-24

After today’s inflation report showing ‘only’ 3% inflation, the Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to start slashing interest rates.

The Fed Chairman essentially promised as much to Congress earlier this week, and has warned that if they don’t start cutting interest rates soon, “we could undermine the [economic] recovery.”

These guys still don’t get it. At this point it’s not even about 3% inflation (which is still too high) or 2% inflation. It’s about prices going back down to pre-pandemic levels… or just lower in general.

But that’s just never going to happen. The Fed doesn’t care about price reductions; they’re happy with a slower rate of price increases… which is totally out of touch with what people want and need.

DINARRECAPS8 7/10/24 DINARRECAPS8 7/10/24

Boots On The Ground In The World’s Bitcoin Paradise

Notes From the Field by James Hickman July 10, 2024

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Schiff Sovereign’s CEO, Viktorija Simulynaite, who is on the ground in El Salvador.]

The first thing my driver said to me after I got off the plane in El Salvador was, “Welcome to my country. It’s very safe here now.” I chuckled to myself because this seemed like such an odd greeting. But the more time I spent mingling with locals in El Salvador, the more it made sense.

The transformation that has taken place in the country over the past five years cannot be overstated.

Five years ago El Salvador had one of the highest murder rates in the world. It was basically a war zone. Gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18 were far more powerful than the government, and they enforced their own laws in their respective territories, sort of like the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The country’s young president, Nayib Bukele, put an end to all that when he was elected in 2019.

DINARRECAPS8 7/9/24 DINARRECAPS8 7/9/24

Social Security Will Run Out Of Money In Nine Years

Notes From the Field by James Hickman/Simon Black May 7, 2024

Social Security’s annual trust fund report was released yesterday… and, no surprise, the report states very clearly that trust fund balances “are projected to become depleted during 2033.”

Allow me to repeat that: Social Security’s most important trust fund will run out of money in nine years.

This is a fact, not some wild conspiracy theory; remember that the annual report is signed by top government officials including the United States Secretaries of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services… so the projection is about as official as it can get. But if you dive into the report, you quickly notice that even such a grim forecast may, in fact, be too optimistic.

DINARRECAPS8 7/8/24 DINARRECAPS8 7/8/24

Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As The Global Reserve Currency

Notes From the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black

By the early 400s, the Roman Empire was coming apart at the seams and in desperate need of strong, competent leadership. In theory, Honorius should have been the right man for the job.

Born into the royal household in Constantinople, Honorius had been groomed to rule, practically since birth, by the finest experts in the realm. So even as a young man, Honorius had already accumulated decades of experience.

Yet Rome’s foreign adversaries rightfully believed Honorius to be weak, out of touch, divisive, and completely inept.