Why Momentum Says this Market is in Trouble
Why Momentum Says this Market is in Trouble
Wealthion: 2-11-2025
In a recent episode of Wealthion hosted by James Connor, financial expert Michael Oliver, the founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, provided an insightful analysis of the current state of the markets.
With momentum models indicating troubling signs that could predict significant downturns, investors might be overlooking critical data that precedes major price movements.
Oliver’s approach is distinct from traditional price chart analysis. While most investors focus on price trends and historical data, Oliver emphasizes the importance of momentum signals—factors that can indicate structural weaknesses in a market before they manifest in price changes.
This early warning system looks at various components within the market dynamics that often shift before prices react, making it a valuable tool for proactive investors.
One of the most alarming insights shared by Oliver is the similarity of current market patterns to those observed before past bear markets. He highlighted the behaviors of key indices such as the NASDAQ and S&P 500, which are currently showing signs that could foreshadow a significant downturn. Are we on the brink of a bear market that could see declines of 50% or more?
The interview delved into factors contributing to this potential bear market, prompting the question: Are the bubble markets poised to collapse? With the tech-heavy NASDAQ and other previously hot global markets displaying early indicators of weakness, Oliver raises the alarm that a correction is impending—one that could catch many investors off guard due to their reliance on price data alone.
The term “Everything Bubble” was pivotal in the conversation, with Oliver challenging the notion that current market conditions can sustain themselves indefinitely. As asset prices across a variety of sectors bubbles up, there’s an increasing risk that they could deflate simultaneously.
Oliver advises investors to be hyper-aware of these market dynamics because the consequences of a widespread correction can be severe and widespread.
In contrast to traditional equities, Oliver asserted that commodities, especially gold and silver, could be on the verge of a major breakout. With their historical performance often inversely correlated with stock market performance during downturns, he advocates that now might be the time to reassess asset allocations. As inflationary pressures continue to rise, the defensive properties of precious metals become notably appealing.
Finally, the discussion touched on the Federal Reserve and its influence on the market. As the central bank navigates interest rates and monetary policy adjustments, Oliver raised critical questions about the Fed’s future moves—specifically, how these could inadvertently backfire and exacerbate market instability.
With continuous shifts in monetary policy, there’s a pressing need for vigilance among investors, as the Fed’s actions could trigger a domino effect that rattles the entire economic landscape.
The conversation with Michael Oliver serves as a critical reminder for investors to pay close attention to momentum signals rather than solely focusing on traditional price charts.
The insights provided about current market dynamics—the potential for a bear market, the implications of the Everything Bubble, and the shifting roles of precious metals—present a compelling case for a more cautious approach to investment strategy.
As the markets evolve, those who remain vigilant will be better positioned to navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead.