The Coming Melt-up Before the Global Bust
The Coming Melt-up Before the Global Bust
Palisades Gold Radio: 7-15-2025
In this detailed discussion on Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics interviews David Hunter, a seasoned contrarian macro strategist with over five decades of market experience.
The conversation centers around the current state of the financial markets, the anticipated final leg of a 43-year secular bull market, and an impending global economic bust.
Hunter argues that despite recent market volatility, the stock market is entering a parabolic phase likely to peak within the year, driven primarily by a cautious but gradually confident institutional investor base and falling interest rates. He highlights the divergence in sentiment between retail and institutional investors, noting retail’s surprising bullishness amid institutional skepticism.
Hunter foresees a soft landing narrative supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates, and positive corporate earnings, which will further fuel market gains. However, he emphasizes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not the primary driver of this final rally; instead, institutional money flows and a shift in market sentiment toward pro-growth policies, particularly those associated with the Trump Administration, will be more influential.
Looking beyond the immediate market cycle, Hunter predicts a severe global bust reminiscent of but larger than the 2008 financial crisis, driven by excessive debt and derivatives leverage worldwide.
This bust, expected around 2026, will force central banks to engage in unprecedented monetary easing, potentially printing up to $20 trillion or more to stabilize the financial system.
The aftermath will likely usher in a prolonged inflationary period by the early 2030s, with inflation possibly reaching 20-25%, causing a dramatic revaluation of asset prices and a shift away from growth sectors toward commodities and industrials. Hunter projects gold reaching $20,000, silver $500, and oil $500 per barrel in this new cycle.
Hunter also discusses geopolitical risks, particularly the potential for conflict involving China and Europe, but views these as more relevant to the next cycle rather than the impending bust.
He expresses cautious optimism about supply-side reforms and reshoring efforts under the Trump policies but doubts these will fully offset the structural imbalances and monetary dynamics driving the looming bust.
The conversation closes with Hunter emphasizing the predictable nature of monetary responses to crises, the challenges of timing market tops, and his active engagement on social media and through his macro letter to share ongoing insights.
Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:48 - Melt-Up Phase Outlook
00:05:35 - Secular Top, Drivers?
00:07:20 - Mkt. Confidence & Big Money
00:09:44 - Earnings, Housing & Jobs
00:12:28 - Rates & Foreign Buyers
00:15:30 - The Top, Timeframes
00:18:13 - Market Behavior & Debt
00:28:59 - Final Top - Gold & BTC
00:32:30 - Mining Sector Targets
00:36:00 - Global Bust Structure
00:40:12 - Supply Side Economics
00:49:48 - Conflict & Hard Times
00:52:40 - NATO Vs. Putin, Europe
00:55:03 - Fiscal Stimulus Scenario?
00:58:10 - Money Printer is Coming
01:04:32 - Concluding Thoughts