Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economic Updates Thursday Evening 7-31-25
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Trump’s Tariff Deadline Hits: Who Has a Deal—and Who’s on the Brink of Trade War?
With hours to go before the U.S. imposes sweeping new global tariffs, the world is holding its breath. On Friday, August 1, President Donald Trump’s long-threatened reciprocal tariffs will take effect, reshaping global trade with abrupt force.
A Trade Flashpoint Years in the Making
More than 120 days after declaring “Liberation Day” in April, Trump’s administration is now set to begin enforcing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, or more, on countries that failed to finalize new deals with Washington. Sectors like steel, copper, pharmaceuticals, and electronics will bear the brunt.
Trump remains unyielding:
“THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE – IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED,” he posted on Truth Social.
Winners: Countries That Secured Deals
A handful of U.S. partners have locked in agreements, accepting tariff increases in exchange for continued market access, U.S. investment, or exemptions on key goods:
European Union: Accepted 15% tariffs on most exports, including cars and pharmaceuticals, plus energy and investment pledges.
Japan: Secured 15% tariff (down from 25%) with a $550B investment pledge to the U.S.
United Kingdom: Agreed to a 10% general tariff, with a 25% sectoral tariff on metals.
South Korea: Accepted 15% tariff in exchange for U.S. export exemptions and $350B in pledged investments.
Indonesia: Negotiated a 19% rate by committing to Boeing aircraft purchases and trade liberalization.
Vietnam: Settled on a 20% base tariff and 40% for transshipped goods, in return for zero tariffs on U.S. cars.
Philippines: Accepted 19% tariffs, plus full U.S. export access and enhanced military cooperation.
Pakistan: Agreed to a joint oil development project; specific tariff terms remain undisclosed.
Still No Deal: Trump’s Top Three Trade Partners
Mexico: The largest U.S. trade partner ($840B/year) faces ongoing 25% tariffs. USMCA exemptions offer limited protection.
Canada: With $700B in bilateral trade, Canada risks a 35% tariff for goods not USMCA-compliant.
China: Trades over $530B with the U.S.; a 30% tariff is set to apply August 12 following a brief extension. Earlier rates had escalated to 145%.
On the Edge: India, Taiwan, Pakistan
India: Faces a 25% blanket tariff, plus penalties for energy ties with Russia. Trump criticized India’s high tariffs and minimal bilateral trade.
Taiwan: Facing a proposed 32% tariff (excluding semiconductors), final terms are still pending intense negotiations in Washington.
Little Hope: Brazil’s Breakdown
Brazil has drawn the harshest penalties: a 50% reciprocal tariff. Trump has directly linked the tariff to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Bolsonaro, calling it “economic blackmail.” Lula has called the move “an international disgrace.” Negotiations are stalled.
Wider Implications: Economic Blowback and Supply Disruptions
The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs could cost U.S. households an average of $2,400 in 2025, as prices rise across imported goods. Key industries such as electronics, clothing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to face disruptions as costs climb and supply chains reconfigure.
The IMF Weighs In
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the tariff war risks undermining global stability:
“Restoring stability in trade policy is essential. We urge all parties to agree on clear and predictable frameworks,” he said, in what was seen as a veiled criticism of Washington’s aggressive stance.
@ Newshounds News™
Source: Al Jazeera
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Trump’s 25% Tariff on India Puts BRICS Unity to the Test
U.S. tariff escalation deepens BRICS economic tensions as India faces mounting pressure over stalled trade talks.
As the August 1 deadline approaches for sweeping new U.S. tariffs, the economic standoff between Washington and New Delhi has taken a dramatic turn. President Donald Trump confirmed Tuesday that a 25% tariff on Indian imports is imminent, sending shockwaves through both bilateral relations and the broader BRICS alliance.
Despite months of negotiation, the India-U.S. trade deal remains unresolved, threatening to ignite a full-scale trade war between the world’s largest and most populous democracies. And now, with India at the epicenter of escalating BRICS economic tensions, the bloc’s cohesion is facing one of its most significant tests to date.
Trump Escalates India Tariff Threats
Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, President Trump offered no ambiguity about his position:
“They are going to pay 25%.”
When asked directly whether Indian goods would face 20–25% tariffs, Trump reiterated:
“Yeah, I think so. India has been—they’re my friends.”
But the friendship appears strained. According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the path to a trade agreement remains murky:
“They [India] have expressed strong interest in opening portions of their market. We, of course, are willing to continue talking to them. But I think we need some more negotiations with our Indian friends to see how ambitious they want to be.”
Trade Deficits and Discontent
The tariff threats stem in part from a widening trade imbalance. In 2024, the United States imported $87 billion worth of goods from India while exporting only $42 billion, a deficit that has more than doubled over the past decade.
Trump has long voiced frustration over India's tariff policies, calling them among the highest in the world:
“They charge more tariffs than any other country.”
During recent talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump reportedly said:
“You’re not treating us right.”
A Crucial Moment for BRICS Solidarity
India’s rising friction with the United States comes at a time when the BRICS alliance is under increased external pressure. Trump’s tariff campaign—part of a broader strategy that includes threats against China, Brazil, and others—has placed the bloc’s unity in the spotlight.
Earlier this year, Trump briefly imposed 26% tariffs on Indian goods before suspending them amid trade talks. Now, with new tariffs back on the table, India's response may shape the BRICS bloc’s credibility in resisting Western economic coercion.
India’s reaction has been reserved but pointed. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar rejected any suggestion that a trade deal was near completion:
“The announcement was premature. Negotiations are complicated and intricate.”
High-Stakes Sectors at Risk
Key Indian exports to the U.S.—including pharmaceuticals, apparel, and telecommunications equipment—stand to be hit hard by the proposed tariffs. U.S. negotiators have also raised concerns over India's digital services tax and what they call “uniquely burdensome” testing standards for imports.
With time running out, the standoff poses a serious challenge not only to India-U.S. trade ties but also to BRICS’ long-term resilience. Other members of the bloc are closely watching how India navigates Washington’s pressure.What Comes Next?
The outcome of the U.S.-India tariff dispute could have lasting consequences for BRICS. Will India compromise to secure a bilateral deal? Or will it hold firm, testing the alliance’s resolve to stand up to U.S. economic dominance?
As Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline looms, BRICS unity may be redefined not by declarations, but by decisions—and India’s next move may determine the future of the alliance’s economic architecture.
@ Newshounds News™
Source: Watcher Guru
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