Powell, Bad Data, and a Fractured Fed in the Shadow of the Trump Admin
Powell, Bad Data, and a Fractured Fed in the Shadow of the Trump Admin
Kitco News: 8-15-2025
The Federal Reserve stands at a critical juncture, navigating a complex landscape of economic data inconsistencies, growing internal dissent, and vocal political pressure regarding its leadership and monetary policy direction.
This intricate scenario was expertly dissected by Danielle DiMartino Booth, a respected voice in monetary policy, during a recent discussion with Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News.
The central theme of the conversation revolved around the quality of economic data guiding the Fed’s interest rate decisions and the palpable signs of an impending economic slowdown. Booth highlighted how a string of significant data revisions has thrown a wrench into the prevailing narrative of a robust economy, directly impacting the calculus for future rate decisions.
A key revelation from the discussion was the extensive downward revisions to crucial labor market data, particularly payroll figures. These adjustments, Booth noted, paint a starkly different picture than initially presented, weakening the argument for a perpetually strong jobs market.
Compounding this, rising delinquencies in consumer credit—specifically credit cards and student loans—further contradict the notion of a resilient consumer.
These inconsistencies, Booth emphasized, severely complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. If the underlying data guiding policy is flawed, then the resulting policy might be miscalibrated, risking either overtly tight or excessively loose monetary conditions.
Adding a potent political dimension to the economic discussion, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged as a vocal advocate for a dramatic shift in monetary policy. Bessent explicitly called for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a lowering of 150 to 175 basis points, with an immediate 50 basis point cut as early as September.
He sharply criticized Fed Chair Jay Powell’s current “data-driven” approach as outdated, advocating for a return to a more proactive “1990s-style” economy where the Fed moved preemptively.
Bessent’s core warning: current monetary policy risks being “too tight for too long,” potentially stifling growth unnecessarily and pushing the economy into a deeper downturn.
Beyond the challenge of unreliable data, the discussion also shone a light on growing internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). An “unprecedented number of dissents” signals a widening divide among policymakers regarding the appropriate path for interest rates, indicating a lack of consensus that could further complicate future actions.
This internal friction, coupled with the increasingly public debate over Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair—with figures like Donald Trump and Scott Bessent openly discussing his potential replacement—raises significant concerns about the Federal Reserve’s cherished independence.
The reputational and political challenges facing the central bank underscore the delicate balance it must maintain between economic imperatives and external pressures.
The Kitco News discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth paints a complex picture for the Federal Reserve. Plagued by questionable data, facing external political pressure for aggressive rate cuts, and grappling with internal dissent, the Fed stands at a critical juncture.
The choices made in the coming months, both on rates and leadership, will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of the U.S. economy and redefine the central bank’s role in a highly charged political landscape.