One Last S&P Rally, then a 50% Crash Like 2008
One Last S&P Rally, then a 50% Crash Like 2008
Wealthion: 5-6-2025
Are we on the precipice of another financial crisis reminiscent of 2008? Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist at The Technical Traders, believes so.
In a recent interview with James Connor on Wealthion, Vermeulen laid out a compelling, albeit unsettling, case for a significant market correction, potentially a 30-50% plunge in the S&P 500. He argues that we’re in the final stages of a market “exit-liquidity” squeeze, mirroring the infamous stage-four breakdown that preceded the 2008 collapse.
Vermeulen’s warning hinges on several key factors, including the behavior of institutions, collapsing freight volumes, the impact of tariffs, and concerning signals from the oil market. He paints a picture of Wall Street giants actively “dumping” their holdings onto retail investors, utilizing them as the “exit liquidity” needed before the markets take a nosedive.
Vermeulen is closely monitoring specific levels on the charts to identify the moment the market truly breaks down. He anticipates a final push potentially pushing the S&P 500 towards 5,950 before the inevitable crash.
He didn’t specify the exact breakdown level, emphasising focusing on the overall market behaviour and momentum shifts rather than a single number. Identifying these trigger points is crucial for investors looking to protect their portfolios.
According to Vermeulen, the current market dynamics bear striking similarities to the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. He points to a characteristic “stage-four breakdown,” where initial optimism and a false sense of security give way to a rapid and devastating market decline. The key is to recognize the signs of this final leg and prepare accordingly.
Vermeulen highlights specific stocks that are showing signs of weakness, including tech giants like Apple and Nvidia, as well as data analytics firm Palantir. These companies, once market darlings, are now flashing sell signals, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and a broader market downturn.
Vermeulen’s starkest warning is directed towards retail investors. He believes they are being actively used by institutional investors as “exit liquidity” – the buyers who allow them to offload their holdings before the market crash. This highlights the importance of understanding market cycles and avoiding the trap of buying at the top.
While Vermeulen’s outlook is largely bearish, he does see a silver lining in the precious metals market. He predicts that gold is poised to break towards $3,750 once the market shake-out is complete. He also anticipates a short-term correction in the precious metals market before the upward trend resumes.
This suggests that gold and silver could serve as safe-haven assets during the impending market turmoil.
The collapsing price of oil is another key indicator of an impending recession, according to Vermeulen. The decline in oil prices often reflects a decrease in demand, which in turn signals a slowdown in economic activity. This reinforces the overall bearish outlook for the market.
Interestingly, Vermeulen makes a contrarian call on the U.S. dollar. He believes that the dollar will likely strengthen during the downturn, as investors flock to the perceived safety of the U.S. currency. This is a crucial point for investors to consider, particularly those holding assets denominated in other currencies.
Finally, Vermeulen addresses the potential impact of a market crash on Bitcoin and related companies like MicroStrategy. He suggests that Bitcoin’s price will likely decline if risk assets broadly suffer, and MicroStrategy, with its significant Bitcoin holdings, is particularly vulnerable.
Chris Vermeulen’s analysis paints a concerning picture of the current market landscape. While the potential for a final push towards 5,950 on the S&P 500 exists, he urges investors to be vigilant and prepared for a significant market correction.
By understanding the key indicators, monitoring critical chart levels, and recognizing the role of retail investors as exit liquidity, individuals can take steps to protect their portfolios and potentially capitalize on opportunities that arise during the downturn.
While a 2008 repeat is not guaranteed, Vermeulen’s warnings serve as a crucial reminder of the importance of careful analysis and prudent investment strategies in today’s volatile market.