Iraq news Highlights and Points To Ponder Sunday AM 10-6-24

The Dinar Collapses Against The Dollar.. Is The Specter Of 1600 Looming On The Horizon?

October 3, 2024  Baghdad/Al-Masala: The dollar price witnessed a noticeable increase against the Iraqi dinar during the past few days, as the exchange rate reached 1,550 dinars per US dollar.

This increase has raised great concern among economic and popular circles due to its direct impact on the local market and on the standard of living of citizens.

Economic analyst Munar Al-Abidi explained that there are a number of reasons behind this rise in the US currency against the dinar.

One of the most prominent reasons is the decline in transfers of other foreign currencies, such as the UAE dirham and the Chinese yuan, as a result of the significant restrictions imposed by correspondent banks that are in the process of strengthening the balances of these currencies.

These restrictions directly affected the fluidity of transfers and weakened the possibility of obtaining other foreign currencies on which the Iraqi economy depends.

In addition, the Citi-Pilot project faces clear challenges, as the banks participating in it are reluctant to open new accounts for operating companies, as their dealings are limited only to companies with which they have previously dealt.

This limited approach reduces the ability to use these banks as channels for external remittances, increasing pressure on the US dollar and limiting the availability of alternatives.

The current currency exchange mechanisms were unable to cover the increasing demand for foreign currency, especially for the purpose of importing some of the most valuable goods, such as mobile phones and gold, which prompted importers to resort to the parallel market, and contributed significantly to increasing pressure on the dollar and raising its price in the local market.

Expectations indicate that the decline of the dinar against the dollar may continue during the coming period.

If practical measures are not taken to address these issues, the exchange rate could reach 1,600 dinars per dollar in the coming months. In order to address this challenge, there are several solutions that can help calm the situation. One of these solutions is to increase the network of correspondent banks around the world, especially in the UAE and China, which could help facilitate remittances and increase the flow of foreign currency into the country.

The solutions also include controlling financial policy by limiting the import of some goods that contribute to increasing demand for the dollar, in order to reduce pressure on foreign currency.

Pressuring banks under the Citi-Pilot project to be more open could help accept a wider range of customers, which would help ease pressure on the dollar and diversify the channels available for remittances.

In addition, it may be necessary to temporarily ban the import of some goods to reduce the demand for foreign currency until more organized and smooth solutions for the foreign transfer process are found.

The rise in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar is the result of a combination of economic and financial factors, including weak banking infrastructure, difficulty in accessing remittances, and increased demand for foreign currency for import purposes.

The current situation reflects major challenges that require rapid and effective action from the Iraqi government and the Central Bank to restore stability to the financial market. https://almasalah.com/archives/102326

Hidden Costs”: How do 140 days of holidays affect the economy and daily life?

Posted On 2024-10-05 By Sotaliraq  Reports indicate that the financial costs associated with development projects increase significantly as a result of official and unofficial holidays that affect the workflow.

According to recent data, the number of annual holidays reaches 140 days, causing delays in project schedules and increasing operational costs.

This large number of holidays requires a re-evaluation of the work schedule to ensure that economic goals are achieved within the specified dates and budgets.

[size=45]Today, Thursday, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed the financial costs of holidays in Iraq, while confirming that their total is 140 days.

Al-Marsoumi said in a post on Facebook, “The total annual salaries of employees and others amount to 90 trillion dinars,” indicating that “the total number of Fridays and Saturdays is 104 days per year.”

He added, "The total number of official holidays in Iraq, excluding special holidays, is 16 days, while the total number of unofficial holidays is approximately 20 days, while the total number of official and unofficial holidays is 140 days."

The expert continued, "The number of actual working days per year is 225 days, while the daily cost of official and unofficial holidays, including Fridays and Saturdays, is 246 billion dinars," stressing that "the annual cost of official and unofficial holidays is 34 trillion dinars."

He pointed out that "the annual cost of official and unofficial holidays, except for Friday and Saturday, amounts to approximately 9 trillion dinars, while the annual cost of unofficial holidays amounts to approximately 5 trillion dinars."

He pointed out that "Iraq is the first country in the world in terms of official and unofficial holidays, and it is the highest in the world in this, while there are 8 official holidays in England and Wales."

He believed that “both types of holidays cause huge financial losses to Iraq, especially unofficial holidays that are granted for various reasons, including rain, high temperatures, and visits. This loss in unofficial holidays is equivalent to the annual budget of Syria,” recommending “restricting the authority to grant official and unofficial holidays to the Presidency of the Council of Ministers.”

Every year, on October 3, Iraqis celebrate the Iraqi National Day, which marks the declaration of Iraq's independence from the British mandate and its accession to the League of Nations in 1932.  LINK

Economist: Oil Prices Could Rise To $200 If War Expands

Economy  |  04/10/2024  Mawazine News - Economy   Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi predicted on Friday that oil prices will reach nearly $200 per barrel if the war in the region expands to include the Gulf states, especially if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which will lead to the interruption of the flow of about 20 million barrels of oil per day to global markets.

In an analysis published by Al-Marsoumi, he spoke about two possible scenarios for the upcoming oil war:

1. The first possibility: Israel targets Iranian oil export outlets, especially Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass, which means removing 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day from the market, which will raise prices by about $5 per barrel to reach $82. But this scenario will cut off the most important sources of funding for Iran.

   - In this case, **OPEC Plus** is likely to intervene and cancel voluntary and mandatory production restrictions to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, which may lead to a decrease in prices and their return to the $70 per barrel range.

2. The second possibility: The war expands to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which will affect Gulf oil exports, especially Saudi Arabia. In this scenario, oil prices may rise to levels exceeding $100 per barrel.

Al-Marsoumi also pointed out that Iran had previously confirmed that it would prevent oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz if it was prevented from exporting its oil, indicating that closing the strait would mean the interruption of about 20 million barrels per day of global supplies, which could push oil prices to levels of up to $200 per barrel, and the export of Gulf gas shipments passing through the strait would also be affected.

Al-Marsoumi concluded his analysis by pointing out that any Israeli strike might focus on targeting Iranian oil facilities, especially refineries, which could lead to the withdrawal of between 300 and 400 thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports.

However, he stressed that this loss may not have a significant impact on global oil prices, especially after Libyan oil production levels return to normal. https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=255616

Customs: Our Revenues During 7 Months Of The Current Year Exceeded One Trillion Dinars

Money and business  Economy News – Baghdad  The General Authority of Customs announced, on Thursday, that customs revenues exceeded one trillion dinars during 7 months of the current year 2024, indicating that it is about to implement real reform measures that will positively affect the level of revenues.

The head of the authority, Hassan Al-Akeili, said in a statement reported by the official news agency, and reviewed by "Al-Eqtisad News", that "customs revenues during the year 2022 were 807 billion dinars, and in the year 2023, revenues rose to one trillion and 33 billion, an increase of 28%, while the current year 2024 and until last July, revenues reached one trillion and 145 billion dinars."

He pointed out that "the Authority hopes that revenues will reach 2 trillion dinars by the end of this year, although the current rate is still below the level of ambition," stressing that "the Authority is about to implement real customs reform measures that will positively affect the level of revenues."

Al-Akeili added, "The estimated amount of the authority's revenues in the budget is 2 trillion dinars, and we are on track to reach it by the end of the year."- https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=48308

Parliamentary Finance Clarifies To "Alsumaria News" The Legality Of Imposing Taxes On Citizens And Sends A Message
 Economy   2024-10-04 | 06:18    Sumerian News – Economy    A member of the Finance Committee revealed Mustafa Al-Karawi, on Friday, discussed the legality of the taxes imposed by the government on citizens and employees, while pointing out that the government should start with goods taxes on merchants and companies.

Al-Karawi said in an interview with Sumaria News, "The tax section is considered one of the sections supporting non-oil revenues."Mission“The government must work on it,” he said, indicating that “the government must start with goods taxes on merchants and companies, not with the poor citizen and employee who is demanding an adjustment to the salary scale and an increase in his specializations in light of the rising price of the dollar.”

He considered "taxes a good step", pointing out "the need for direct support and interest in taxes, but the categories covered by taxation must be specified to avoid public discontent and greater burden on the citizen".

He added: "We hope that there will be a clear plan from the government and a program to increase taxes through sectors that are considered to have high capital to avoid affecting the common citizen".

Regarding the legality of taxes, Al-Karaawi explained that "the tax law exists, but many of its provisions are not implemented, and there are texts in the budget that indicate the possibility of collecting taxes from employees, citizens or companies", stressing: "There must be priorities in collecting these taxes, and the most important thing is that there be real support for the tax sector, so that the citizen is not harmed by them".    LINK