Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Thursday Afternoon 3-19-26
ECB holds rates at 2%, warns of war impact
2026-03-19 Shafaq News- Brussels On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2%, cautioning that tensions and the war in Iran could weigh on growth and inflation prospects in the eurozone.
In a statement, the ECB indicated that “the war in the Middle East will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices,” noting that its medium-term effects will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict, and the extent to which energy costs pass through to consumer prices and the broader economy.
See below the baseline inflation outlook for the euro area, taken from our latest macroeconomic projections. In view of the current geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, two additional scenarios have also been prepared.
According to Reuters, financial markets expect eurozone inflation to rise to around 4% next year, with a return to the 2% target likely to take several years. These expectations come amid a surge in oil and gas prices since the start of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, raising the risk of higher energy costs, increased consumer prices, and slower economic activity in the eurozone, which comprises 21 countries and relies heavily on fuel imports.https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/ECB-holds-rates-at-2-warns-of-war-impact
Iraq Oil Shipments To US Drop ~5% In 20252026-03-18 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq’s oil exports to the United States fell in 2025 to just over 90 million barrels, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
The data showed that total shipments reached 90.8 million barrels, down 4.6 million barrels, or 4.8%, from about 95.4 million barrels in 2024.
Despite the decline, Iraq remains a key oil supplier to the United States, though current export levels are far below the decade peak of 220.5 million barrels recorded in 2018, a drop of nearly 59%.
Monthly exports varied, peaking in August at 10.2 million barrels and falling to a low of 5.4 million barrels in February, reflecting fluctuations in Iraq’s oil supply flows to the US market. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-oil-shipments-to-US-drop-5-in-2025
Oil Jumps As Iran Strikes Energy Sites Across Middle East
2026-03-19 Shafaq News Oil prices rose on Thursday, with benchmark Brent rising as much as $5 a barrel, after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East following a strike on the South Pars gas field, a major escalation in the war with the United States and Israel.
Brent futures were up $4.66, or 4.3%, at $112.04 a barrel by 0400 GMT, after an earlier rise of more than $5 to $112.86 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 96 cents, or 1%, to $97.28 a barrel, after having risen over $3.
Brent closed up 3.8% on Wednesday, while WTI settled nearly flat. WTI has been trading at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years due to releases from U.S. strategic reserves and higher freight costs, while renewed attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities boosted support for Brent.
"Escalation in the Middle East, precise attacks on oil infrastructure, and the death of Iranian leadership all point to a prolonged disruption in oil supplies," Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said in a note.
"Adding fuel to the fire, the Federal Reserve served 'steady rates' with a hawkish narrative, pointing to the economic concerns that follow a war."
The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, projecting higher inflation as policymakers take stock of the impact of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
On Wednesday, QatarEnergy said Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan, the site of Qatar's core LNG processing operations, caused "extensive damage" to its energy hub.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched on Wednesday toward Riyadh and an attempted drone attack on a gas facility.
Iran issued evacuation warnings before its attacks for several oil facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as it prepared to retaliate for strikes on its own energy infrastructure in South Pars and Asaluyeh.
South Pars is the Iranian sector of the world's largest natural gas deposit, which Iran shares with U.S. ally Qatar on the other side of the Gulf.
Israel carried out the South Pars gas field attack, but the United States and Qatar were not involved, President Donald Trump said late on Wednesday.
He added that Israel would not further attack Iranian facilities in South Pars unless Iran attacked Qatar, and warned that the United States would respond if Iran acted against Doha.
Oil prices are set to stay supported as Iran's fresh strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure worsen regional tension, with no sign of de-escalation in the conflict or a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, said Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ.
Earlier, Reuters reported that Trump's administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, in preparation for the next steps of its campaign against Iran.
Options include providing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which would involve primarily air and naval forces, said the sources cited in the report, but securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops.
(REUTERS) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-jumps-as-Iran-strikes-energy-sites-across-Middle-East
Iraqis 3rd In Turkiye’s Foreign House Purchases In February
2026-03-19 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Ankara Iraqis ranked third among foreign buyers of real estate in Turkiye in February, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT).
The total house sales across Turkiye rose to 124,549 units in February, compared with 112,818 in the same month last year. Sales to foreign nationals reached 1,457 houses during the month, marking a relative decline compared with February of the previous year.
Russians led foreign purchases with 256 houses, followed by Iranians with 133, while Iraqis ranked third with 106 houses. Ukrainians, Germans, Chinese, British, Americans, and Kazakhstanis followed in the overall ranking.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraqis-3rd-in-Turkiye-s-foreign-house-purchases-in-February
USD/IQD Exchange Rates Surge In Baghdad, Erbil
2026-03-19 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar rose slightly in Iraq on Thursday, trading near 155,000 dinars per 100 dollars. According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad’s Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya central exchanges at 154,900 dinars per 100 dollars, up from 154,700 dinars earlier in the day.
In the capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 155,500 dinars and bought it at 154,500 dinars, while in Erbil, selling prices reached 154,800 dinars and buying prices stood at 154,700 dinars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-exchange-rates-surge-in-Baghdad-Erbil-0-4
Gold Extends Losses To Seventh Consecutive Session
2026-03-19 Shafaq News Gold prices dropped over 5% on Thursday, falling for a seventh consecutive session, as the Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated.
Spot gold fell 5.5% to $4,552.38 per ounce by 8:46 a.m. ET (1246 GMT), its lowest since early February.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 7% to $4,554.70.
"Gold is now a very widely held position for institutional investors and that has been on the back of the debasement trade over the last year. But the foundations of that trade are now weakening," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.
"For the near term, we continue to see risk to the downside. There is a very substantial amount of room for gold to sell off while maintaining its bull market era trend support," he added.
Gold is prized as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical turmoil, but because it does not generate interest, it tends to lose appeal in periods when rates are high.
Top central banks struck hawkish tones as the Iran war drove energy prices sharply higher but acknowledged the sheer uncertainty over the impact on the global economy called for caution in their next policy moves.
Benchmark Brent oil prices traded above $110 a barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East following Israel's strike on its South Pars gas field.
Meanwhile, a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter said President Donald Trump's administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East as the Iran war enters a possible new phase.
Analysts at SP Angel said gold has been hit by profit-taking and a stronger dollar, noting that after its strong rally in 2025, it is not surprising to see traders lock in gains to cover margin calls and rotate into fresh trades such as hydrocarbons amid renewed volatility.
Spot silver fell 10.7% to $67.26 per ounce. Spot platinum fell 6.8% to $1,886.13, and palladium lost 4.1% to $1,415.41.
(REUTERS) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-extends-losses-to-seventh-consecutive-session