Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Saturday Afternoon 3-21-26

India Refineries Eye Iranian Oil As US Eases Sanctions

2026-03-21 Shafaq News- New Delhi/ Tehran  Indian refiners are preparing to resume purchases of Iranian oil following a temporary easing of US sanctions, Reuters reported on Saturday, as Asia weighs options to ease a growing energy squeeze.

Three sources in India’s refining sector said companies plan to buy Iranian crude but are awaiting government guidance and clarification from United States authorities on payment terms and conditions.

The move follows a 30-day sanctions waiver issued under President Donald Trump, allowing purchases of Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels as of March 20, with unloading permitted until April 19, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).  Industry sources said other Asian refiners are also exploring similar purchases, signaling a potential shift in regional supply flows.

Indian refiners, which hold relatively lower crude inventories than some Asian peers, have recently moved to secure alternative supplies, including Russian oil, after the easing of restrictions.

Iran’s oil ministry spokesperson Saman Qadousi said earlier that Tehran does not currently hold floating crude or surplus volumes in global markets, describing US statements as aimed at influencing market sentiment.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/India-refineries-eye-Iranian-oil-as-US-eases-sanctions

Oil Could Hit $170 If Hormuz Closure Persists

2026-03-21 Shafaq News – Baghdad   Fitch Ratings warned that oil markets could face sharp volatility in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid ongoing regional conflict.

In a report, the agency said Brent crude could average $120 per barrel if the strait stays shut for six months, compared with around $100 under a three-month disruption scenario.

Fitch said shipping through Hormuz has been heavily affected by the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, raising concerns over global oil supply.

Under a shorter closure, prices could spike to $130 per barrel during the disruption, before easing to about $90 by year-end, the report said.

In a prolonged six-month scenario, Brent could trade between $130 and $170 per barrel during the closure period, before falling back toward $90 later in the year.

Fitch’s baseline forecast places Brent at an average of $70 per barrel in 2026, with a temporary rise to $100 in March, easing to $90 in the second quarter, and declining to around $60 thereafter.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-could-hit-170-if-Hormuz-closure-persists

USD/IQD Trading Halts In Baghdad And Erbil For Eid Al-Fitr

2026-03-21 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   US dollar exchange rates were not officially recorded in Iraq on Saturday as trading activity halted for the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

Despite the market closure, a limited number of exchange shops continued operating in parts of Baghdad, with the dollar selling at around 155,500 Iraqi dinars per 100 dollars and buying at 154,500 dinars.

In Erbil, markets had closed their last session on Thursday ahead of the holiday, with rates recorded at 154,600 dinars for selling and 154,500 dinars for buying per 100 dollars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-trading-halts-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-for-Eid-al-Fitr

Gold Prices Dip In Baghdad, Erbil Amid Eid Al-Fitr Slowdown

2026-03-21 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil  On Saturday, gold prices fell to around 1 million IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, tracking a downturn in global exchanges alongside the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

In Baghdad, jewelry shops operated on a limited basis, with trading activity remaining weak. The selling price of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 995,000 and 1.005 million IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams), while Iraqi gold traded between 965,000 and 975,000 IQD.

In Erbil, prices mirrored the decline in Baghdad, with markets largely closed due to the holiday, curbing trading activity. Earlier data from Thursday showed 22-carat gold selling at 1,085,000 IQD per mithqal, 21-carat at 1,035,000 IQD, and 18-carat at 887,000 IQD.https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-dip-in-Baghdad-Erbil-amid-Eid-al-Fitr-slowdown

Iraq Holds Power At 14,000 MW As Iran Gas Resumes

2026-03-21 10:30   Shafaq News- Baghdad    Limited Iranian gas supplies have resumed to Iraq, helping stabilize the national electricity grid at around 14,000 megawatts, the Electricity Ministry announced on Saturday.

In a statement, ministry spokesperson Ahmed al-Abadi described the system as operating under a “planned and closely monitored” framework. Resumed gas flows at about 5 million cubic meters per day helped contain the impact of the earlier disruption, he clarified, noting that the ministry managed alternatives, including reallocating domestic gas and coordinating with the Oil Ministry to secure substitute fuel.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-holds-power-at-14-000-MW-as-Iran-gas-resumes

Strategic energy projects remain on track and unaffected by recent developments, the spokesperson added, citing combined-cycle upgrades, a liquefied gas platform in Khor al-Zubair, and electricity interconnection with neighboring countries as key pillars to strengthen grid capacity.

Earlier this week, Iranian gas supplies had stopped completely, cutting more than 3,000 megawatts from the national grid, according to the ministry. The disruption followed reported Israeli strikes on facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars gas field —part of the world’s largest offshore gas reserve shared with Qatar— and energy infrastructure in Asaluyeh.

Iraq continues to face chronic electricity shortages despite its oil wealth, with demand typically reaching 50,000–55,000 megawatts during peak summer months, compared to current production of about 27,000–28,000 megawatts. Iranian gas covers roughly 40% of the country’s fuel needs and supports nearly one-third of its electricity generation.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-holds-power-at-14-000-MW-as-Iran-gas-resumes

Read more: Energy war nears Iraq: Oil infrastructure faces rising threat

The Strait Of Hormuz And The "Great Shock" Scenario: Can Iraq Withstand The Revenue Hit?

Reports   Economy News – Baghdad   The Iraqi economic situation today intersects with one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy trade: the Strait of Hormuz. With the escalating US-Iranian tensions and reports and leaks circulating about potential US military action against Iran, the strait has returned to the forefront not only as a shipping lane but also as a bargaining chip that could be used should diplomatic efforts collapse.

This tension coincides with negotiations that began in Muscat and then moved to Geneva, and with an increasing American military buildup in the region, while Iran monitors the movement of ships using speedboats, missile platforms, and radars that track the movements of the American fleet.

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Within this context, talk of Hormuz does not seem to be merely a theoretical scenario. According to the aforementioned data, approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, representing more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade and about 11% of the volume of global trade, which means that any disruption to it would have an “immediate shock” to markets, energy, marine insurance, and shipping costs.

Despite the continued passage of giant oil tankers and the uninterrupted movement, the “cautious calm” prevailing at the narrowest point of water in the region indicates that the market is reading the possibilities before they occur, and that the level of risk is priced in advance.

Iraq at the heart of the conflict

But the most sensitive aspect in this context is Iraq's position within the equation. Unlike some Gulf states that have alternative outlets and routes, Iraq practically relies on exporting via the south, through the Gulf, and then the Strait of Hormuz.

Here, expert statements stand out as a direct warning bell because they link "politics" to the immediate financial impact on the state and salaries. Economic expert Nabil al-Marsoumi lays out the scenario in numerical terms: if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iraq will be prevented from exporting its oil southward by sea, causing exports to plummet from 3.4 million barrels per day to a mere 210,000 barrels per day; of which 200,000 barrels would be transported via the Turkish port of Ceyhan and 10,000 barrels per day to Jordan by tanker.

Crucially, al-Marsoumi's analysis dismantles the "illusion of price compensation": even if the closure were to drive oil prices up to $150 per barrel, Iraqi oil revenues would still drop from approximately $7 billion per month to less than $1 billion, a level he estimates "only sufficient to cover 14% of salaries."

Al-Marsoumi attributes the fragility to the lack of ready alternatives, stressing that Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, does not currently have complete alternative methods for exporting oil, concluding with a grim result that the country has no quick solutions other than "hoping to prevent war or to prevent a shutdown."

This description intersects with what oil and energy expert Kovand Sherwani puts forward, but from another angle it expands the circle of influence and shows the extent of Iraq's dependence on the strait.

Shirvani reminds us that any military confrontation and Iran's move to close the Strait of Hormuz would have major repercussions for global trade and oil supplies, because 20% of the world's oil passes through this strait.

Then he turns to the specific case of Iraq: More than 90% of Iraqi oil is exported through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning a loss of revenue from approximately 3.5 million barrels per day if exports cease. If the closure continues for a month, Iraq could lose more than $6 billion, representing nearly 90% of its total revenue. Herein lies the gravity of the situation: the problem is not the price increase or decrease, but rather the "severing of the artery" that funds the budget and the state.

Oil expert Haider Abdul-Jabbar Al-Batat's comment completes the analytical circle and readjusts public expectations: Yes, oil prices often rise globally at any threat to Gulf supplies, and this may give Iraq "temporary" financial gains under normal circumstances, but Al-Batat warns that any actual disruption to exports through the Gulf or closure of the Strait will mean a disruption to revenues despite the global price increase.

In other words: the market may push the price higher, but the Iraqi treasury will not catch these gains if the pipelines and ports are not operating, because the revenue is ultimately the product of the price and the exported quantities, and when the quantity drops to a small fraction, the "price increase" becomes incapable of saving the budget.

Conflicting media reports are circulating about the timing of a potential US strike on Iran. CBS reported that the strike could begin as early as Saturday, while the BBC indicated that the US military had informed the White House of its readiness to launch a strike by the end of the week.

Axios also reported a high probability of military action in the coming weeks, described as potentially "massive." Simultaneously, the same article stated that Iranian state television announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours as part of "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercises, with Revolutionary Guard naval commander Ali Reza Tangsiri stating that the decision to close the strait rested with senior regime officials and that readiness was in place "at any time."   https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=65900