Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Late Tuesday Evening 6-16-26
Oil Prices Fall On Uncertainty Over Hormuz Reopening
2026-06-16 Shafaq News Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, as markets weighed prospects for resumption of supply through the key Strait of Hormuz against shaky physical market drivers and a lack of details from a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.
By 0436 GMT, Brent crude futures fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.92 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate inched down 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.66 a barrel.
On Monday, oil prices fell nearly 5% to their lowest close since March 4, after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been made public.
The hostilities led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that typically carried one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the conflict.
Some analysts expect a resumption of supply soon via the Strait, with other factors weighing down physical market prices.
"From here, it likely takes several weeks for tanker flow to be restored," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a client note.
"We see 50% of production back by September, and 80% by December, slightly faster than before."
A broad range of indicators had signaled weakness in physical oil markets in recent weeks, they added.
"High U.S. exports and low China imports are the key drivers (and) in the short term (i.e. next weeks) they do not seem to come to an end just yet."
China's crude imports slumped 29% in May to their lowest in eight years, extending a dramatic decline for the world's importer, with its liftings of Saudi Arabia crude expected to also fall in July.
Early indications are that the U.S.-Iran deal would reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to tackle difficult issues such as the future of Iran's nuclear programme.
On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the U.S.-Iran pact an "important step" toward stopping the fighting but cautioned a final agreement for a lasting truce "has yet to take shape".
But with full details yet to emerge and a permanent truce still to be reached, overall price weakness is limited.
Suvro Sarkar, the head of DBS Bank's energy research, said the deal's first phase, encompassing the Geneva signing of an extension of the 60-day ceasefire, was easy, would buy time and kick the "nuclear can" down the road.
But the second phase, to be watched most closely by markets for its physical impact, is the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the wind-down of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, he added.
"Anything other than a clean simultaneous unlock will mean renewed volatility in oil prices," Sarkar said. "Given the trust deficit so far, it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks."
On Monday, a senior Iranian official said Iran would freeze its nuclear activity until a final agreement, and refrain from further uranium enrichment or expansion of nuclear facilities.
Reuters https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-prices-fall-on-uncertainty-over-Hormuz-reopening
Iraq's Petroleum Product Exports Fall 16% In Q1 2026
2026-06-16 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq's petroleum product exports totaled 2.35 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down nearly 16% from 2.80 million tonnes during the same period last year, according to data released on Tuesday by the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO).
The exports consisted of 2.12 million tonnes of fuel oil and 234,503 tonnes of naphtha, while no sulfur exports were recorded during the January-March period.
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, relies on crude oil exports for about 90% of federal revenue. According to government accounts through April, oil revenues reached 26.121 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $17B), accounting for 84% of the country's total income of 31.163 trillion dinars (about $20B) during the first four months of 2026.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-s-petroleum-product-exports-fall-16-in-Q1-2026
Iraqi Crude Among Top Losers On US-Iran Deal Hopes
2026-06-16 Shafaq News- Basrah Iraq's Basrah crude posted sharp losses on Tuesday, ranking among the steepest decliners in global oil markets as optimism over a preliminary US-Iran agreement pressured prices.
Basrah Heavy dropped $4.64, or 7.98%, to $53.50 per barrel, while Basrah Medium fell by the same amount, losing 7.70% to settle at $55.60 per barrel.
Globally, Brent crude eased 0.31% to $82.92 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.11% to $80.66 per barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket declined 6.52% to $91.68 per barrel. Omani crude on the Dubai Energy Exchange also fell 7% to $81.91 per barrel, as wait-and-see sentiment spread across regional markets. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraqi-crude-among-top-losers-on-US-Iran-deal-hopes
Two Tankers Receive 4M Barrels Of Iraqi Crude At Basra Ports
2026-06-16 Shafaq News- Basra Two oil tankers, a Greek and an Emirati tanker, are currently being loaded with a combined four million barrels of Iraqi crude at southern ports in Basra as part of the resumption of crude oil exports, an Iraqi ports source told Shafaq News on Tuesday.
This development follows the preliminary understanding between Iran and the United States announced on Sunday, which led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic after intermittent disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Hormuz, the strategic maritime corridor, has been largely shut since February 28 following the US–Israel war on Iran, disrupting energy flows and prompting Gulf producers, including Iraq, which routes roughly 95% of its oil exports through the waterway, to scale back shipments.
Turkiye Rejects Extending Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Agreement
2026-06-16 Shafaq News- Ankara Ankara refuses to extend the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline agreement under current conditions, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Turkish official.
Iraq requested at least a one-year extension to allow more time for negotiations on a replacement deal.
Ali Nizar, head of Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), said Iraq has exported about 12 million barrels of crude oil through its southern ports since the beginning of June.
The current Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement is due to expire on July 27, ending a framework that has regulated oil exports between Iraq and Turkiye for decades. Both sides continue to discuss a draft agreement that would govern export operations through the route in the coming period.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Turkiye-rejects-extending-Kirkuk-Ceyhan-oil-pipeline-agreement