History’s Repeating, this Signal Crashed a Major Economy
History’s Repeating, this Signal Crashed a Major Economy
Steven Van Metre: 7-16-2025
The video presents a detailed analysis of a looming economic crisis centered on China’s economy, which investors increasingly believe is on the brink of collapse.
It highlights how the bond market, specifically long-term Chinese Treasury bond ETFs, is signaling expectations of a deep recession in China—contrary to misleading headlines suggesting investors are merely seeking safety.
The video uses U.S. economic data trends, particularly bond yields and GDP correlations, to illustrate how bond markets typically lead economic downturns.
Investors are speculating that China’s monetary easing efforts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will fail to stimulate the economy effectively, prompting expectations of aggressive rate cuts and deflationary pressures.
The video emphasizes that monetary policy alone cannot revive growth if demand remains weak because new money creation depends on borrowing, and when borrowing contracts, money is effectively destroyed. This dynamic is reflected in falling commercial loan growth and weak consumer demand globally, including in the U.S.
China’s economic indicators show mixed signals: while GDP targets have been met, they mask fragile domestic demand and a housing market in steep decline.
Consumer retail sales, especially discretionary spending, have fallen sharply, signaling deeper economic pain. Despite government subsidies, the broader economy is deflating, with consumer price deflators in decline for nine consecutive quarters and real estate prices falling at their fastest pace in months.
The risks extend beyond China, with global spillover effects expected as Asian, European, and American economies face similar demand contractions.
U.S. data show slowing loan growth due to falling demand, weakening consumer spending power, and potential labor market vulnerabilities as manufacturers front-run tariff impacts with rising inventories but declining new orders.
The video concludes by warning that this bond-market-led signal resembles those preceding past financial crises, suggesting the global economy could be headed for another downturn.
It contrasts this grim outlook with a brief promotion of Next NRG, a company pioneering AI-driven clean energy solutions, highlighting its growth potential amid the evolving energy landscape.