Ariel: Vietnam is on the Verge of a Currency Revaluation
Ariel: Vietnam is on the Verge of a Currency Revaluation
9-19-2025
Vietnam On The Verge? The IMF Concludes In Favor Of Currency Adjustment (The Green Light)
What Article IV Really Means for the Dong
At its core, the Article IV consultation is the IMF’s deep dive into a nation’s economic health, assessing policies and risks with unflinching precision.
Directors emphasized that Vietnam’s economy, rebounding to 6.9% growth in early 2025 despite global volatility, is resilient enough to handle shocks through a more flexible exchange rate.
They urged modernization of the monetary policy framework to mitigate risks, explicitly recommending a shift from strict State Bank of Vietnam interventions to a managed float where supply, demand, and investor confidence dictate value.
This isn’t speculation; it’s a formal IMF push for the Dong to breathe freely, setting the stage for appreciation that could multiply holdings overnight.
Echoes from Iraq: The SOMO Agreement as a Global Precursor
This Vietnamese breakthrough doesn’t stand alone it’s amplified by seismic shifts in Iraq, where the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) is finalizing critical oil agreements that pave the way for currency stability.
Just weeks ago, on September 6, 2025, SOMO advanced talks with ExxonMobil for storage and refining in Singapore, alongside wrapping Kurdish oil contracts to resume federal exports under the 2025 budget law.
These pacts, supplying at least 230,000 barrels per day, are the linchpin for Iraq’s economic unification, directly tying into the release of a new exclusive exchange rate for the Dinar mirroring Vietnam’s path but rooted in oil wealth.
Navigating the Road Ahead with Informed Patience
As we stand on this precipice, remember: revaluation isn’t instantaneous, but the IMF’s unequivocal recommendation for managed market determination eradicates the biggest hurdle.
Vietnam’s authorities, buoyed by 2025’s strong start, are poised to implement reforms swiftly, with the State Bank signaling pilot floats by year-end.
Iraq’s SOMO, having ended Kurdish contract overhangs, eyes full resumption by October, triggering the exclusive rate.
For U.S. holders, this duo heralds a life-changing pivot stay vigilant, diversify wisely, and prepare for the influx. The wait has forged resilience; now, it yields revolution.
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