IQD CALLS Early Friday 3-13-20
IQD CALLS Early Friday 3-13-20
Sandyf @Kaperoni sandyf That being said I think you need to read the IMF article for consultations with Iraq and you will find that they are encouraging the CBI to accept Article VIII to send a message to the world that they are open for business.
I read the IMF publications as a matter of course. The IMF started a concerted effort in the mid 90's to get countries into Art 8, but to date Iraq and about 16 others have resisted the pressure. If Iraq wanted to be in Art 8, it could do so very quickly.
At the end of the day the so called auctions are related to Iraqi revenue and as long as the revenue is foreign currency based the auctions will remain.
Floating the currency is always an option to any country, when the currency is in trouble it is often seen as preferable to multiple devaluations. Iraq is being pushed along the same road as Egypt and that currency lost 50% of it's value overnight.
sandyf @Francis Albert Not sure where this "float" thing is coming from. All currencies go up and down based on people buying and selling them. I believe there's over 5 Trillion, (that's a T) bet on the FOREX market every DAY. And all currencies are basically pegged to the dollar whether they like it or not.
Garbage. Only currencies on a floating exchange rate are driven by market forces. Fixed rate is exactly that,"fixed".
Forex is a relationship trading vehicle, trading is done in pairs, just because a fixed rate currency is part of a pair does not mean it's value is changing.
Kaperoni sandyf For the most part you are correct. Iraq could accept Article VIII, but fear plays a part since it is a one way decision. The IMF does not allow a country to return to Article XIV once accepting VIII. I o expect sooner or later if they want to diversify their resources they will accept it.
As for floating the currency, it is the natural progression to get off the peg once the create the conditions for a private sector/market economy. That would be called an "orderly exit." Currently, due to a lack of a prime minister, a cabinet, the laws needed along with low oil and Coronavirus it is creating the "perfect storm" for Iraq's economy and speeding up the transition. In fact, often called a "disorderly exit."
I am not a fan of this situation but it is what it is and we will have to see what the CBI decided to do..wait for the perfect conditions or just throw the oars in the water and row for a few months until this passes.
Again, Egypt and other countries that have chosen to float are not Iraq. I do expect if they choose this now for it to devalue some, but not much or for very long. Predictions are 1300-1350 to $1.
Xyz wife of Canadian Prime Minister, tests positive for coronavirus
mod Interview From Inside China ~ Return to Normal, Business' Reopening CORONAVIRUS https://iqdcalls.com/cvirus.html
Chattels US Defense Department: we have struck Iraqi Hezbollah militia weapons facilities throughout Iraq to reduce their capabilities. LINK
chattels Joint operations reveal the outcome of the US bombing losses and describe it as a "violation of partnership leading to escalation" https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/130320204
chattels Bader leader calls for declaring emergency: We live in a state of war https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/130320205
Doug_W well then kick out the Iranians
Futuremoney Iraq is a black hole
Doug_W Silver:$15.78 -0.36 more cents today again
Baxter Dow Jones back up over 1000 points
Doug_W what a ride eh?
Baxter yeh.. someone is making money
Doug_W always but not us
Baxter for sure
Mod Baxter Insiders may no the Chinese back to normal almost
mod Chia^
mod You can't believe everything you hear on both sides, especially the news there ridiculous
mod I'm not saying don't take care of yourself but there trying to control the heard (Us) with fear it seems
Doug_W mod makes sense
Matt Dow Jones Industrial Average INDEXDJX: .DJI 21,843.36 +642.74 (3.03%)
Doug_W wow that's better
Doug_W Silver:$15.48 -0.66
Weatherford TX Just checking in to see if anyone is believing all the pumpers out there. Just wait the next delay will be blaming the Corona Virus for the delay. To many people gathering together to exchange.
Doug_W Silver:$14.73 -1.41
Doug_W Gold:$1,528.30 -67.43
Dave in waitful anticipation of chattels brining in some news?
Dave good news.......???
Dave well.....no news is good news i hear esp lately
chattels U.S. Central Command Briefing on Airstrikes in Iraq -- LIVE now online here: https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1238447395517710343
chattels Iraq will file a complaint with the United Nations and the Security Council regarding the American forces assault on the headquarters of the army and the crowd / expanded
Friday 13, March 2020 https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=817363
chattels Tariq Harb: The constitutional fifteen days are an organizational period for choosing the new prime minister and can be extended
Friday 13, March 2020 https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=817345
chattels Deputy: The Seven Committee will present a candidate for prime minister in favor of next week
Editing Date: 12/3/2020 19:37 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87889
chattels "the political blocs are currently studying a number of names to take over the position of prime minister and will present the final candidate to all Kurdish and Sunni political forces," noting that "the committee has not resolved the prime minister's personality yet."
chattels Parliamentary Economy proposes to the government 8 measures to manage the financial crisis
Editing Date: 12/3/2020 14:55 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87870
chattels " ............ Reviewing the exchange rates from the Central Bank of Iraq to ensure prices that do not affect the citizen .........."
chattels Whatever the foregoing means ????????????
Dave Canadian dollar sure has been crashing tooo
Dave Global recession?
chattels Likely does not mean that the exchange rate will " improve ". No need to protect the citizenry from betterment.
Doug_W what a rats nest over there
chattels Parliamentary Finance: The emergency budget is limited to paying salaries and conducting elections
Editing Date: 11/3/2020 18:24 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87824
Dave Doug_W invest in that
chattels Saleh said in a press statement that the drop in oil prices to less than $ 30 for a non-short-term period means, of course, dealing with a major financial-economic shock based on the absence of important sovereign resources and the deprivation of the general budget from them, taking into account that the country's budgets depend 92% on Oil revenue.
Doug_W already have
Dave Rat traps?
Dave 92%........
chattels Abdul Mahdi directs a series of measures to mitigate the negative effects on the economy
Editing Date: 11/3/2020 17:59 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87817
chattels The meeting was attended by the finance, oil and planning ministers, the governor of the Central Bank and a number of agents, consultants and economic experts.
Baxter Stock Market up almost 2000 points...as Trump speaks..
Chattels So this is "caretaker" PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi's speech from Wednesday, with my comments below. His main point is that Iraq is not about to collapse totally, which I guess is true if you set the bar for what constitutes "collapse" high enough. https://youtube.com/watch?v=oX-fxrd6j34
chattels Right off, mins 1-4, he makes what I think is an absurdly wrong statement about the oil collapse, saying that a 50% drop in oil prices would still leave Iraq with $30-40bn instead of $75bn before.
That can't be right. Fixed costs of oil production means that if oil prices are reduced by 50%, Iraq's revenue should drop much faster, because the fixed costs including payments to IOCs are going to take up a much larger portion of $35bn than $70bn. Our oil experts can provide more precise figures, but it can't be a proportional drop. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
Chattels Next Abd al-Mahdi says Iraq won't go insolvent bc of the oil collapse. This is true, but the reason he gives for this is misleading. He cites Iraq being 34th in the world in PPP, but that's Iraq's total GDP. Iraq has a larger GDP in PPP terms than several European countries but this has no relationship to Iraq's solvency. Iraq has a larger GDP in PPP terms than Norway but does not have similar credit worthiness. He later does mention borrowing from the CBI, which will have to keep Baghdad afloat in 2020.
Chattels " .............. the CBI, which will have to keep Baghdad afloat in 2020."
Dave 1.35 here
Doug_W chattels amazing
Baxter yeh.. a liter whoopie
Doug_W 3.76 liters a US gallon
chattels Abd al-Mahdi says SOMO thinks that the rebuilding of reserves around the world will make a substantial difference in oil demand. I doubt that. He is right that shutting down shale wells in the US will help, but a gradual increase over 2020 to $50-60 leaves Iraq in a huge hole.
Dave "afloat in 2020.".......
chattels At min 18 he says oil could cover operational expenses. No way it will do that this year. Parl't Finance Comm Chairman Haytham al-Jiburi says that oil revenues are over $6bn short of just covering salaries, pensions & similar basic payments.
chattels Abd al-Mahdi talks about coronavirus at min 20 and makes statements I find credulous. He first mispeaks & says Iraq's infection rate is 1.8%, then corrects to 1.8 per million, then compares this favorably to figures published in European countries. There is a problem here.
Dave Kap will catch that......
chattels While it is true that Iraq's officially reported figures to WHO are about that, 70 total as of March 12, I can't believe AAM finds these numbers credible. Given how quickly the virus has spread in Iran & elsewhere & the amount of contact there has been, that # can't be real.
Doug_W nope
chattels AAM: he closes the speech by talking about progress in agriculture under his govt plus the new China deal (both favorite topics). I'll note that there is a fair amount of criticism of the China deal, & it can't be approved until there is a new govt.
chattels AAM also talks about the large amount of waste in the budget that could be cut, & "dead money" sitting in accounts unspent in various places that can be used to plug the hole. That raises the question of why he didn't address these things last year.
chattels In sum: AAM is probably right the Iraqi state is not going to just collapse entirely, but given the existing urgent need for CapX investment, going a lengthy period of time with almost no investment + growing population means Iraq got closer to a permanent dead end under him. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
chattels Incredible to step back and realize that Iraqi leader presiding over late-stage plummet to insolvency and complete collapse basically defends status quo by saying "it's not the end of the world yet." https://twitter.com/tcambanis
chattels More astounding is after the 24 min talk full of inaccuracies and empty talk he tells those present I called meeting to try identify problems Iraq faces. After all these years and his time in office, he still needs to identify the problems? When does he start making decisions? https://twitter.com/iraqoilforum/status/1238487103056547840
chattels I actually hit "pause" and didn't listen to the last 30 seconds, but it is interesting he says they need to talk to identify problems, then decide at some point on whether the "caretaker" govt can pass the budget. He should have been an academic. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk
chattels I've lost that " RV " feelin'.
Baxter CHATTELS... SO HAVE I.... I have completely disregarded Iraq in this anymore... and have flipped over to the GCR possibility.... Mainly because that is the only possible way.. this will ever happen..
chattels https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOnYY9Mw2Fg
chattels You've Lost That Loving Feeling ................. Righteous Brothers.
Dave PEEPS wont stand for this much LONGER??????
Baxter 4 days... and I start my 15th year..
chattels Okie told us to relax, but ..........................
Baxter HA
Dave Baxter LOST ALL FAITH in their Parliament.........
Dave Coup only solution imo
Baxter GCR...GCR..GCR..
chattels Pentagon retaliates after deadly Iran-backed strikes on US troops Jack Detsch March 13, 2020
Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/pentagon-retaliate-iran-backed-strike-us-troops.html#ixzz6GbQBXCFJ
Dave chattels and Iraq files a claim to UN against the US?????
Baxter Stock market up 1985 points...done for the day
Dave Who do recommend to learn about this GCR?
Baxter well.. PTR has been working on this GCR for over 5 years now.... and they do have some very good points.. Im not saying they are right..but I am saying.. dont rule it out especially right now...with the way the world is
Dave Go ZIM????
Baxter Ha... not hardly