Zig’s Place Chatroom News Thursday PM 1-6-22

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butterfly   Expert: The Government Continues In Its Economic Confusion And Has Failed To End Arbitrary Appointments

Economic   Last Update 01/06/2022 | 1:01 PM   The economic expert Bassem Antoine confirmed, on Thursday, the government's failure to end the file of randomness in the appointments of employees in the public sector, indicating that Iraq exceeded 9 times the global ratios for the number of employees in the public sector.

Antoine said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma", that "the government continues to think in a populist manner towards the economic sector, and it cannot achieve any significant achievement, especially in light of the random increase in the number of employees in the government."

He added, "Those in charge of the Iraqi economy do not realize that work and the economy depend on competitive value, as making 2000 workers cannot be compared to a modern factory that has less than 100 workers, with the same productivity, and at prices that are several times lower."

Antoine pointed out that "the public sector is paralyzed and does not achieve any significant achievement, and international estimates indicate that Iraq possesses 9 times the workers in the international labor market, which made the state budget operational par excellence without any success rates." https://almaalomah.me/2022/01/06/574987/

butterfly   State Of Law: The Government Failed In The File Of Expelling Foreign Forces

Politician  Last Update 01/06/2022 | 1:45 PM

State of Law coalition stated, on Thursday, that the caretaker government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi came to achieve three goals, foremost of which is the exit of foreign forces, but it failed to do so.

A member of the coalition, Alaa Al-Hadadi, said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma", that "Al-Kazemi has proven his failure in the two things that were a main reason for his sitting on the presidency," noting that he "failed to expel the American forces and to conduct fair legislative elections, and it was a reason for the exclusion of some politicians."

He added, "He not only failed in the elections and the withdrawal of US forces, but also caused confusion in the security scene by changing some security leaders with experience and competence in defeating terrorism, which made terrorist gangs increase their activities in many areas."

Al-Hadadi pointed out that "the current reality does not mention the government any achievement, whether on the economic, security or agricultural side."

The political analyst, Karim Al-Khikani, said that the government is still ignoring the people's demands regarding the American exit from Iraq, pointing out that there is ambiguity regarding the true number and the rules in which these forces are present, as ignoring will lead to the destabilization of Iraq. https://almaalomah.me/2022/01/06/575013/

butterfly   Al-Sadr will not participate in a government with Al-Maliki, official says 2022-01-06 02:30

Shafaq News/ On Thursday, the State of Law Coalition revealed that the Sadrist Movement sent a message to the Coordination Framework that it will not participate in any government that includes Nuri al-Maliki.

The leader of the State of Law, Wael Al-Rikabi, told Shafaq News Agency, "The Sadrists sent a message to the Framework that Al-Sadr will not participate in any government with the leader of the State of Law Coalition despite that the two parties agreed on forming the largest bloc and the new government.”

“The Framework is coherent and cannot accept to exclude one of its most potent parties, especially that the State of Law has the highest number of parliamentary seats among the Framework forces.” He said.

Al-Rikabi stressed that the negotiations with Al-Sadr is continued to forming the largest bloc and the government without eliminating any political party.

It is worth noting that the Sadrist bloc emerged as the clear winner with 73 seats in the 329-seat parliament. Takadum party, one of two main Sunni political groups and led by the speaker of the outgoing parliament Mohammed al-Halboosi, followed with 37 seats. Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc came third with 33 seats.

The Iran-backed al-Fatah Alliance, won only 17 seats, compared with 45 in 2018. https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq-News/Al-Sadr-will-not-participate-in-a-government-with-Al-Maliki-official-says

butterfly   What will happen to Iraq when the US withdraws? - opinion

An ISIS resurgence is just one scenario out of four.

By SARDAR SATTAR Published: JANUARY 6, 2022 19:20 On December 29, only two days before the deadline for the US-led Global Coalition to withdraw its combat forces from Iraq, prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi announced that the last American soldier had already left his country and the remaining foreign forces were only there to train and advise the Iraqi forces.

This might be considered the end of an era, but could also be the beginning of a new one. The withdrawal, as many believe, can lead to the resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS), which is only one scenario in the absence of US combat forces in Iraq. The ISIS resurgence itself could mark the beginning of a new chain of crises that would not be easy to handle this time.

Early in December, when the US began the practical phase of their withdrawal, ISIS stepped up terrorist attacks in the provinces of Diyala, Salahaddin, Anbar, Kirkuk, and Nineveh. In less than 30 days, the extremist group killed at least 30 Peshmerga fighters of the Kurdistan Region, and many more Iraqi troops and paramilitary fighters.

This was soon interrupted by a debate on whether or not Iraq should ask the US to prolong the withdrawal, but it was too late because the official agreements had already been made.

If we consider the re-emergence of ISIS as the first likely scenario in the absence of coalition and US combat forces, then there are three others that could eventually become inevitable realities.

Butterfly   First of all, the possible ISIS comeback could give the Iranian backed Shia militias in Iraq a chance to justify prolonging their existence, as they were originally formed to assist the Iraqi Army in its war against the Sunni extremist group. Since the latest parliamentary elections, the powerful Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, whose Sadrist Movement has emerged victorious, has repeatedly called for the dissolution of the militia groups, so weapons would only be in the hands of the state.

Therefore, an increase in ISIS movements in Iraq could give the Shia militias the chance to convince influential leaders like Al-Sadr that their existence is still needed in Iraq.

THE SECOND scenario is giving Iran an upper hand again to shape the future of Iraq’s political landscape. Since 2005, when the majority Shia population rose to power in Iraq, Iran has been an active and, in most cases, decisive player in Iraq. The strength of the Shia militias would mean Iran’s greater hegemony in Baghdad, where a gap has been left by the US and its allies since their withdrawal.

The third one is: if these domino-like scenarios are what we should expect, a last blow comes when Baghdad fails to form a new government – at least an inclusive and successful one.

In this scenario, the Shia militias have lost the election, but they are unlikely to let political rivals take power and shape the next government so easily and through a democratic process. They see the real power as coming from military capacity and not public backing, which means they will keep their weapons and, consequently, maintain their political power.

butterfly   Considering these arguments, Iraq would most likely see a significant surge in violence once again that would help Iran to restructure its deep state in Iraq. It would also revive Iran’s regional influence, especially after facing a massive setback in the absence of Qasem Soleimani, the top Iranian general killed in a US airstrike two years ago, who was known as the man behind every political move in Baghdad.

The writer is a journalist based in Erbil, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. He writes for several different local and international news organizations about security and political developments in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and the wider region.   https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-691792

butterfly   https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-691792

butterfly   In the UK, Calls Grow to Revoke Tony Blair's Knighthood Over Iraq War

"It's just heartbreaking really to think he's being rewarded for all the deaths that have happened. If he had any morals at all, he would decline and refuse it."

January 6, 2022   Citing his role in the Iraq War and other devastating conflicts, hundreds of thousands of people in the United Kingdom and beyond are calling for former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to be stripped of his newly bestowed knighthood. rest of the article: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/01/06/uk-calls-grow-revoke-tony-blairs-knighthood-over-iraq-war

butterfly   US Appeals Court renews lawsuit against companies allegedly funding Iraq terrorism

Josephine Wenson | U. Pittsburgh School of Law, US

JANUARY 6, 2022 11:41:14 AM The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Tuesday renewed a lawsuit against twenty-one medical equipment and pharmaceutical companies over allegations that their contracts with Iraq’s health ministry aided in funding terrorism that ultimately led to the death of American soldiers during the Iraq War.

AstraZeneca, GE Healthcare USA Holding, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Hoffmann-La Roche, and other companies are accused by plaintiffs, family members of victims of the attack in Iraq by the Mahdi group, of providing illegal support to terrorist acts in two ways. First, plaintiffs claim that defendants used local agents to deliver cash kickbacks to the terrorists who gave them business.

Second, plaintiffs argue that defendants delivered extra, off-the-books batches of valuable medical goods to Jaysh al-Mahdi to sell on the black market to fund their operation and pay terrorist fighters. Jaysh al-Mahdi is a militia group funded by Hezbollah, who had power over Iraq’s health ministry during the time of the war in Iraq. more in article: https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/01/us-appeals-court-renews-lawsuit-against-us-companies-allegedly-funding-iraq-terrorism/

butterfly   Iraq’s new Parliament has its work cut out

Al Sadr may want to bring Al Kadhimi back as PM but pro-Iran factions won’t accept that

Published: January 06, 2022 18:43 Damascus: On January 9, Iraq’s newly-elected parliament will meet for the very first time, three months after nationwide elections took place in October. Its 329 MPs will have to name a new speaker, president, and prime minister.

According to norm, the eldest of the parliamentarians will chair the first session, and the assembly will get 30 days to elect a new president, replacing the incumbent Barham Salih.

Since the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi presidency has traditionally been reserved for a Kurdish figure (with the brief exception of Ghazi Al Yawer in 2004-2005). Salih’s successor is up for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to decide, who jointly command 63 seats in the new Chamber.

The new president will then name a prime minister, replacing Mustafa Al Kadhimi. The new premier gets a constitutional period of 30 days to form a new government. more in article: https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iraqs-new-parliament-has-its-work-cut-out-1.84795744

butterfly   ok, I'm done until something pops up.

Sheila   bad weather, good day

Sheila   Video: The Most Honest 3 Minutes in Television History, 3:27 -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML3qYHWRIZk

NORV   Zig   butterfly : The big factor remains the money supply of Dinar....unless it is drastically reduced the rate will not move....at least not where we hope....no way of knowing if they are removing the larger notes as some have alleged for a long time....

NORV   Yes there is Zig! If they were reducing the money supply or the larger notes their would not be 100+ trillion in circulation. As for paper notes, most citizens use paper..therefore the exchange rate would be effected. Remember, part of the daily auctions is to manage the exchange rate, which is a balance between dinar and dollars. Reducing one or the other effects the rate..We know daily from CBI reports the rate is stable.

NORV   Nothing will change till Iraq ends the auctions and replaces it with making the dinar internationally traded.

6 Jan 22, 06:47 PM NORV   6 Jan 22, 03:24 PM Zig  Dave : Yeah but Kap could be right and we would eventually still make money ya know....

6 Jan 22, 03:25 PM Dave In 10 years we would see 1 cent..........

6 Jan 22, 03:26 PM Zig   Dave : No....lol....it would free float and could move faster than you may think....okay enough from me....I will try and stay positive.....

NORV   You keeps saying " I may be right" This is not what I say..this is what the IMF says. They will float! Go read the IMF Article IV Consultation from 2013-2014!

NORV   Why will they float? Because it is what emerging markets and countries do.

NORV   Quote...  6 Jan 22, 06:51 PM Sheila   NORV how long will they float?

NORV   It's not a time thing. Once they float, they are like any other country

NORV   From IMF>>31. The stable exchange rate has provided a valuable anchor in an uncertain environment. This policy remains appropriate for the foreseeable future. In the medium term, the authorities should create the conditions that would facilitate moving to a more flexible exchange rate.

NORV   The IMF is telling Iraq to create the conditions to begin a float

NORV   page 23. 2013 imf  14

NORV   14. The de facto fixed exchange rate has served Iraq well. The authorities agreed that a stable nominal exchange rate provides a valuable anchor for inflation expectations in an uncertain environment, and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future.

In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.

NORV   staff (imf) encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy.

NORV  Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect

NORV   to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation

NORV   It is right there in print     That is the plan

NORV   But they need to pass the laws, get a gov in place and create the conditions mentioned BEFORE they can float

NORV   Someday      so we wait     have a good night!

NORV   Here is the report to read for urself.

NORV   https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217.pdf

NORV   pages 17-19

NORV   Later

Zig   Wow...it's a @Kaperoni avalanche....lol.

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