Zig’s Place Chatroom News Monday PM 10-25-21

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butterfly   The Commission sets the date for the start of the manual counting and sorting of the contested stations   10-25-2021 08:42 AM

The Commission sets the date for the start of the manual counting and sorting of the contested stationsThe Electoral Commission has set, next Wednesday, the date for the start of manual counting and sorting procedures for the contested stations.

A brief statement by the commission stated, “The Electoral Commission begins the procedures for manual counting and sorting of the contested stations as of Wednesday, October 27.”

Earlier in the day, the Board of Commissioners recommended dismissing 461 appeals and recounting 297 electoral stations.

The Commission said, “It is continuing to study the appeals submitted to it, as they have been audited by the relevant department,” noting that “accordingly, 483 appeals were presented to the Board of Commissioners today, Sunday.”

And she added, “After completing the necessary investigative procedures in light of the evidence and the recommendation made, the Council recommended the dismissal of 461 appeals for various reasons, the most important of which is the absence of the appeal from the evidence or its violation of the provisions of Article 38/First of the Iraqi Parliament Elections Law in force, as the appellant did not specify the station or center.”

who is appealing his results, in addition to his demand to open all the stations of the electoral district or to prove that the announced results match,” noting that “these appeals will be sent with a recommendation to the Judicial Commission for Elections for decision in accordance with the law.”

butterfly   And she added, “The Council decided to approve the re-counting and manual counting of (297) of the contested electoral stations based on 22 appeals distributed to the governorates of Diyala, Nineveh, Maysan, Karbala, Kirkuk, Dhi Qar, Anbar, Qadisiyah, Salah al-Din, Muthanna, Basra, Baghdad and Babil, as it was supported by evidence.

Pointing out that “the council will make the appropriate recommendation in this regard after completing the counting and sorting procedures.”   dijlah.tv

butterfly   Three options: Scenarios for forming the next Iraqi government after the October elections

10-25-2021   Three options - Scenarios for forming the next Iraqi government after the October electionsWith the announcement of the full preliminary results of the Iraqi elections on October 17, the controversy renewed over the conditions for determining the largest bloc capable of forming the next government, and whether it was Al-Sadr or Al-Maliki who would go to form the next government.

The Controversy Over The Largest Mass:

Controversy renewed after the parliamentary elections over the concept of the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament, especially after al-Maliki announced his quest to form the largest bloc, which can be detailed as follows:

1- Forming the largest bloc in the government: Article 76 of the Iraqi constitution states: “The President of the Republic assigns the candidate of the most numerous parliamentary bloc to form the Council of Ministers within fifteen days from the date of the election of the President of the Republic.” In practice, the concept of the largest bloc adopted by the Iraqi Council of Representatives in various previous sessions is the bloc that is formed after the elections from several parliamentary coalitions.

2- Maintaining the cohesion of the parties: Article 45 of the new election law No. 9 of the year 2020, states that “no deputy, party or bloc registered within an open electoral winning list has the right to move to a coalition, party, bloc or other list until after The formation of the government immediately after the elections, without prejudice to the right of the open lists, or the individual lists registered before the elections, from the coalition with other lists after the elections.”

Butterfly   This article means that a political party that won a certain number of seats is not entitled to be joined by other members representing other parties and blocs, that is, they change their party affiliation, or for two parties to merge together to form a new party, but it does not prevent parties and blocs from joining together to form a government coalition to lead the next government. This measure aims to maintain the cohesion of political parties and blocs, and to prevent the transfer of their members to other blocs, something that Iraq witnessed in the previous parliamentary elections.

This article apparently aimed to prevent a repetition of what happened in the 2010 elections when Nuri al-Maliki received 89 votes and Ayad Allawi 91 votes, but the transfer of deputies from one bloc to another was not prohibited at the time, and therefore a number of members moved to the owners, which made the numbers of his bloc More than 100 votes, more than the number of Allawi’s votes, which resulted in Maliki’s assignment to form the Iraqi government.

On the other hand, the interpretations of the Federal Supreme Court 2010 and 2014 confirm that the most numerous bloc is either the one that formed after the elections from one list, or that was formed from two or more lists, so the bloc became the most numerous in the first session after taking the oath.

3- Al-Maliki announced the formation of the largest bloc: On October 16, the State of Law bloc, led by al-Maliki, announced its adherence to forming the new government after it allied itself with other blocs and independent deputies to become the largest parliamentary bloc, and nominate al-Maliki for prime minister.

butterfly   State of Law announced that it had held a strategic alliance with most of the blocs and lists that won the elections within a new entity called the “Coordination Framework”, which now includes about 93 deputies, and that the new alliance includes State of Law (34 seats), the Al-Fateh Alliance (17 seats), and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq , and the rights bloc (loyal to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades), and other currents along with some independents.

It is clear that this announcement falls within the framework of waging psychological warfare against al-Sadr, especially with the “coordinating framework” announcing its rejection of the election results, and its threat to take to the streets, which means that it has practically lost hope of forming the next government.

On the other hand, the Sadrist movement (73 seats) and the Shiite forces opposed to Tehran, especially the extension movement (9 seats), and the independents allied with the Tishreen Revolution (11-30 seats) together constitute about 93-112 seats, which means that it is not possible in theory That the coordinating framework be able to accumulate the number of announced seats unless it allied itself with other blocs, outside the Shiite parties.

It was customary in previous Iraqi elections for the largest Shiite bloc to form the new government, meaning that the alliance is between Shiite power parties to form the largest bloc, and then it negotiates with the other Sunni and Kurdish blocs. And if this rule is preserved, al-Sadr will be able to form the next government, and al-Sadr could resort to blocking the path in front of al-Maliki, if he allied himself with one of the Sunni or Kurdish parties, specifically the Halbousi Party (37 seats) or Barzani (32 seats). , the two closest to him.

Government formation scenarios:

butterfly   The options for forming the next government in Baghdad, and its reflection on Iranian influence, are as follows:

1- A trans-sectarian government: This scenario is represented in the formation of an alliance between the Sadrist Movement (73 seats), Al-Halbousi (37 seats), and the Kurdistan Alliance led by Masoud Barzani (32 seats), and the number of seats for this bloc will be about 142 seats, meaning that it is less than The number of seats needed to form a government, which is 165 seats, with only 23 seats.

These seats can be obtained through an alliance with the “Azm” alliance (12 seats), the “Kurdistan Patriotic Alliance” (16 seats), or either of them and some of the independents, whose number is estimated at about 40 independents.

There is no doubt that such a government will exclude Iran’s allies, as it will practically mean the formation of the first majority government in the history of Iraq, as previous governments after the American occupation of Iraq included all the political forces that succeeded in the elections.

Such a scenario will represent a setback for Tehran’s influence, not only by excluding its allies, but also because such a scenario means that the base, which Iran sought to establish by forming an Iraqi government by consensus first among the Shiite blocs, will be abolished this time.

butterfly   On the third hand, such a government will be an indication that Iraqi nationalism will prevail over Iranian-backed sectarianism, which is all a painful blow to Tehran. Therefore, the threat of Iran’s militias to employ armed force can be seen as Tehran’s last option in the event that al-Sadr succeeds in forming such a government.

2- Tehran militia government: This scenario assumes that Nuri al-Maliki will lead the Shiite forces allied with Iran. seats), but this coalition, if it occurs, will only be able to gather 58 seats, which is much less than the simple majority that was able to form the government, which is 165 seats, which forces it to form alliances with other parties. Therefore, al-Maliki announced his attempt to mobilize more seats than al-Sadr’s (73 seats),

by allying with all Shiite forces and independents to steal the entitlement to form the government from al-Sadr, which is difficult to imagine given that most of the independents, according to preliminary estimates, are affiliated with the October Revolution. .

Al-Maliki may be heading for an alliance with non-Shiite blocs such as the Kurds to bypass Sadr’s seats, a very difficult scenario, but not impossible. The difficulty is represented in Al-Maliki’s history with the Kurds, as he had previously reneged on his promises to the Kurds, and had deliberately marginalized them, unlike the current Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi. Therefore, any promises made by Maliki to the Kurds will be viewed with suspicion.

There is no doubt that such a scenario will preserve Iranian influence in Iraq, but it will have repercussions on stability in Iraq, especially since most currents of the Iraqi people have expressed their rejection of the negative Iranian role and the political class associated with it.

Butterfly   3- An inclusive government: This scenario reproduces the same previous Iraqi governments, i.e. the participation of all the winning forces in the elections in the government. This scenario can be achieved in the event that al-Sadr and his opponents are unable to win the majority, as Tehran may turn to pressure the Kurds, or some of their parties, especially the Kurdistan National Alliance and some Sunni forces, in order to discourage them from joining al-Sadr’s government to thwart his efforts to form the next government, even in The case that he was officially assigned to form it.

Under this scenario, Sadr and Maliki will have no choice but to agree on the inclusion of all Shiite forces in the new government. Such a scenario helps save Iran’s face and gives it the ability to claim that it has not lost its influence. However, it will represent a setback for the efforts aimed at removing Iraq from the Iranian sphere of influence, even if temporarily.

In conclusion, all previous developments in Iraq reveal the decline in Tehran’s influence, but it will seek to try to accommodate this politically, by trying to steal the mandate of the next government from al-Sadr, or to form a comprehensive government, and if it fails, it will work to employ military force through its militias to impose Its influence in Iraq, which is a scenario with unsafe consequences, will increase the level of hatred for it in the Arab and Shiite streets.   rawabetcenter.com

butterfly   After the “Najaf” message, four names are on the al-Sadr table for the government settlement

2021-10-25 06:17   After the Najaf message four names are on the al-Sadr table for the government settlementShafaq News/ An informed political source revealed, on Monday, that the bloc rejecting the election results deliberated the names of three “settlement” candidates to present them to the rest of the blocs, including the Sadrist bloc.

The source, who attended the meeting of the blocs rejecting the election results last night, Sunday at the home of the leader of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, told Shafaq News Agency, “According to the current data, it is difficult for the Sadrist bloc to single out a candidate for prime minister without the support of the political parties participating in the next government.” .

He added, “Therefore, it will be searched for a compromise candidate, and this was discussed in the meeting of the parties rejecting the election results last night.”

And he indicated that “the meeting deliberated some of the settlement candidates, including Qassem al-Araji, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, Abdul-Hussein Abtan, and Tariq Najm, provided that the names were also presented to Muqtada al-Sadr to express his position.”

The source concluded by saying, “After a letter of reference from Najaf that cut the way for all the heads of previous governments to return to the prime ministership, it has become necessary to choose a settlement candidate, and the matter does not intersect with the Sadrists’ orientations in naming a candidate for them whose loyalty is to Iraq only.”

butterfly   The atmosphere of forming the next government is still shrouded in uncertainty, and its compass is faltering between the Sadrist bloc, which won the largest number of parliamentary seats, and the coordination framework that includes Shiite blocs rejecting the election results. Matters became more complicated after talking about a crack in the coordination framework due to the division of its parties between a supporter of restoring confidence. The former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to form the next government, and others reject that.

A message from Najaf confused the Shiite blocs aspiring to the premiership, as the Najaf message included a decisive directive that put the blocs in embarrassment.

Najaf’s message included that “no party can form the next government alone, and it is not possible for those who were in power to return again under any circumstances, meaning that the road has been cut off for promoters or those seeking to restore confidence in the heads of previous governments,” according to a source who told Shafak Agency. News.

The source added; “The actors or parties controlling the political scene in Iraq are still holding the threads of the future scene’s movements, and any talk outside that context is not applicable on the ground, referring to the difficulty of the Sadrists forming the government without the approval of (America and Iran).”

butterfly   Earlier today, the Sadrist movement, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, stressed that the latter does not seek to monopolize the political decision or power, as it adopts the principle of working according to the rule (partners of the nation).

Al-Sadr’s representative in Dhi Qar Governorate, Ibrahim Al-Jabri, told Shafaq News Agency, “Al-Sadr seeks to form an alliance to serve the country based on the principle or base (partners of the nation), and this denies what some are trying to promote, and also dispels the fears of some parties to the political process that fear the Sadr’s control of power.

Several political parties announced their fear of forming a Sadrist government for fear of al-Sadr’s direct intervention in its administration.

For his part, a source from Al-Hanana – Al-Sadr’s headquarters in Najaf – told Shafaq News Agency, “The political parties that reject the naming of the Sadrists, the government, are afraid to reconsider the previous and current corruption files and to refer those involved in those files to the judiciary and prosecute them.”

The source pointed out that this matter in itself “constitutes an obsession of concern to them, and from here comes the attempts to cancel the election results and manually recount and sort all electoral stations.” shafaq.com

Butterfly   Al-Amiri’s alliance reveals a “method” to change the election results

2021-10-25 09:16  Al-Amiris alliance reveals a method to change the election resultsShafaq News/ Al-Fateh coalition led by Hadi Al-Amiri revealed Sunday, the method that will change the results of the early parliamentary elections.

The leader of the coalition, Uday Shaalan, told Shafak News Agency, “The results of the early parliamentary elections will change by re-counting and manual counting of all ballot boxes, as this will reveal the extent of manipulation and fraud that occurred in the electoral process.”

Shaalan stressed that “political and popular demands will not decline except through the implementation of the basic demand, especially with the presence of popular sit-ins in the capital, Baghdad, and this demand is focused on re-counting and manual sorting of all ballot boxes.”

He continued, “For this reason, some parties reject this demand so as not to expose the fraud conspiracy.”

The Al-Fateh Alliance, which includes the majority of armed Shiite factions in Iraq, had announced its rejection of the preliminary results of the early parliamentary elections, while its supporters, protesting at the gates of the Green Zone in central Baghdad, continue to threaten to escalate unless the commission follows the manual counting of polling stations.

According to the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections, the Al-Fateh Alliance won 14 seats, while it had come second in the previous elections (2018) with 48 seats.

It is noteworthy that the Al-Fateh Alliance participated in the elections that took place on the tenth of this month with 61 candidates divided into 60 electoral districts and distributed over 15 Iraqi governorates.

shafaq.com

Sheila   Hearing good things coming out of Nevada. Yikes... Could this actually be about to happen?

butterfly   sheila Maybe.............we will have to wait and see, as usual.

Sheila  butterfly maybe another 2 or 3 days... then?

butterfly   sheila let me know, my week is going to be very busy.

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