TNT

Tishwash:  The 'war' of currencies... and the future of the dollar

The dollar is indisputably the dominant international currency, and has been for about 77 years, that is, since the countries participating in the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 adopted it as the "official" currency of monetary reserves. 

According to international reports, 59 of the global foreign exchange reserves today are held in dollars, 20 in euros, 6 in Japanese yen, and 5 in British pounds, while the share of the Chinese yuan (or renminbi) is still less than 3.  

But the dominance of the dollar has been under discussion for years due to shifts in the balance of economic power and the emergence of China as a strong competitor to the United States, technical transformations that facilitated digital financial transactions, the rise of cryptocurrencies, in addition to geopolitical tensions that made some countries search for alternatives to the US dollar. 

The debate on the topic has finally resurfaced with the Ukraine war and tough sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries on Russia.  

As of the end of January, Russia's foreign exchange reserves were estimated at $469 billion. President Vladimir Putin had hoped that this reserve would be a guarantee for his country from the effects of any Western sanctions, after the lesson he received after his invasion of the Crimea region in 2014. But his calculations were not accurate. 

This time, the sanctions were harsher and included the reserves of the Russian Central Bank located abroad, which deprived Moscow of half of its foreign exchange reserves, and placed serious obstacles to its international trade.  

This situation was not reflected in Russia alone, but rather sent signals to other countries such as China, which is watching the Ukraine war and its repercussions, and is aware that it may be targeted in the future by US sanctions in light of the raging struggle between it and Washington for influence and a leading position in the global economy. 

Freezing Russia's foreign reserves means that these reserves do not provide a safe haven, and therefore other countries may consider that diversifying foreign exchange reserves gives them greater guarantees than placing all their eggs in the dollar basket.  

In fact, the dominance of the dollar began to face questions a long time ago; Several countries have already diversified their monetary reserves by resorting to the euro, sterling, the yen, and finally the yuan. The dollar’s ​​share in global foreign exchange reserves decreased from about 70 at the beginning of this century to about 59 at the end of last year, but so far there is no alternative that can be said that will remove the dollar from its place. 

Even the yuan, which relies on China's vast economic power, is not an alternative in the eyes of most global financial circles, owing to traditional fears that the nature of central power in Beijing means that it can make decisions that lead to currency fluctuations, as well as a lack of transparency.  

There are those who believe that the strongest challenge to the dollar may come from digital currencies in the future. Currently, there are 100 countries considering the possibility of using digital currencies, and these countries represent approximately 90 of the world's gross domestic product. 

Among the four largest central banks in the world (the European Central Bank, the British, the Japanese, and the US Federal Reserve), the United States appears to be lagging behind in moving towards the adoption of the digital dollar project due to differences in political and financial circles, regulatory obstacles, and the impact on the financial system Global.  

But US decision makers understand that the world is changing and sooner or later will move towards digital currencies. Over the past few years, the world of financial transactions has witnessed a digital revolution in light of the rapid growth of unofficial encrypted currencies such as Bitcoin, and the adoption of new generations of electronic payment systems and their gradual departure from dealing with paper and metal currencies, preferring to pay using their mobile phones and the touch system. The prevailing view now is that if central banks do not act to keep pace with these changes, people may turn to alternative, informal systems, most notably cryptocurrencies.  

Another thing that worries the United States is China's move towards digital currencies by launching the digital yuan and its efforts to popularize it for use among its citizens as a first step towards adopting it in its transactions with other countries.  

In light of these changes, the US Congress has begun to show an increased interest in the issue of cryptocurrencies, and last January the US Federal Reserve published a paper on its internal discussions on cryptocurrencies and the digital dollar.

 Although the Federal Reserve spoke about the potential benefits of the idea of ​​an official digital currency such as facilitating payment systems, reducing its costs for financial institutions, and ending with maintaining the dollar’s ​​position as a major currency in the global financial system, it also raised some reservations and concerns about the possible effects of the move on Monetary and financial stability.  

Talking about a new digital currency or currencies that challenge the dollar and try to remove it from its position as the global monetary reserve currency is not new, nor is it a point of view necessarily emanating from the opponents of the United States and its competitors such as China and Russia. 

For example, Mark Carney, the (former) Bank of England Governor, in a speech in 2019 before a meeting of global central bank managers in the American town of Jackson Hole, called for an end to the hegemony of the US dollar over the global financial system, as the main monetary reserve currency. He said that this influence has reached a stage where it has become an obstacle to a sustainable global economic recovery.  

He was thus indicating that many countries around the world maintain huge amounts of cash reserves in dollars to secure themselves in turbulent times, which means the accumulation of a lot of money, which could have been used in the global trade and economic cycle. In addition, the dollar is used as a payment system in at least half of international trade invoices, and thus many countries become vulnerable to the indirect repercussions of fluctuations in the US economy and the value of the dollar.    

Carney believed that the dollar could be exchanged and the use of a global digital currency adopted by central banks in different countries. He said that this digital currency "could dampen the dominant influence of the US dollar on global trade. If the share of trade billed with this new digital currency rises, the shocks that occur within the US will have less strong effects (on other countries)."  

He also mentioned that a global digital currency backed by a large group of countries will release the money that governments currently store in dollars as an insurance policy in turbulent times. He likened the transition from the dollar to a new global digital currency to the end of the British pound's dominance of global financial markets 100 years ago.  

Since Carney's speech, which sparked widespread interest, many have talked about the topic of cryptocurrencies and the future of the US dollar. At the beginning of last February, the Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, gave a speech before the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, about the future of money and the rise of the concept of digital currencies. She said that the world has passed the stage of discussions on the idea and reached the stage of experimentation with digital currencies, noting that countries such as China and Sweden have made strides in this field.  

The debate about the future of the international monetary system will not stop, especially with the intensification of the international influence struggle, the expected attack on the dollar in the coming era of digital currencies, and the increasing movements between a number of countries, including Russia, China and India, to carry out their joint commercial transactions in rubles, yuan and rupees. The question is, how will America respond to this challenge?  link

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Tishwash:  Brent and West Texas crude futures are down

Economic sources reported that Brent crude futures fell to $4.71, or 4.2%, and resulted in a drop in the price of a barrel to $108.58 a barrel.

It also reported that US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $5.45, equivalent to 5%, and the price of a barrel to $102.74 a barrel.  link

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Tishwash:  Al-Tamimi to the Obelisk: Wednesday’s session (still) continues.. and the sixth of April handing over the crisis to the Federal Court

The legal expert, Ali Al-Tamimi, clarified, on Wednesday, March 30, 2022, the nature of the parliament's decision after adjourning Wednesday's session to elect the President of the Republic until further notice .due to the failure to achieve a quorum

Al-Tamimi told Al-Masala that adjourning the parliament session on Wednesday to further notice means keeping it .continuous and not open because the open is prohibited by Federal Court decision 55 of 2010

Al-Tamimi added: As for the continuous, it opens at an unspecified time with the same quorum that it opened on .Wednesday

The Iraqi parliament had adjourned its session on Wednesday, without specifying its next date, after it failed for the .third time to choose a new president of the republic Parliament has until April 6 to elect a president, according to a decision of the Federal Court, the country's highest .judicial authority

Al-Tamimi says that crossing the sixth day of next April without electing a president will lead the country to a constitutional problem that has not been addressed either in the constitution, nor in the parliament's internal system, .nor in the provisions of the candidacy law for the presidency

Al-Tamimi expects that Parliament will need again to refer to the Federal Court, and perhaps Parliament to dissolve .itself in the face of this inability to achieve, and we may enter into these problems that have a first and not another

Al-Tamimi explained that the decision of the Federal Court, which opened the door for candidacy for the position of President of the Republic, required that the door for nomination be opened again by presenting it to Parliament, and .this was done

And he went on: Article 6 of Law No. 8 of 2012 requires the House of Representatives to convene before the end of the period specified in Clause Two of Article 72, which includes that (provided that the President of the Republic is .)elected within 30 days from the first session of the House

Al-Tamimi added: Since the Federal Court has amended the constitutional terms and changed the constitutional terms stipulated in Article 72, the first meeting of the Council when the door for nomination is opened again is the date of 6/3, so the period for electing the President of the Republic ranges from 6/3 to 6/4 According to this text contained in Article 72 II of the Constitution, but the Federal Court said (a short period) that is, short, which means that Parliament .must complete the task, in a short period before the end of the 30 days

Al-Tamimi continues: Constitutionally according to this provision, from Article 72, secondly, the period from 6/3 to 6/4 will be the election of the President of the Republic, and if we cross 4/6 we enter into the taboo and the constitutional problem that has not been addressed either in the constitution or in the internal system For Parliament, not in the provisions of the law on candidacy for the position of the Presidency of the Republic, and perhaps Parliament needs .again to refer to the Federal Court, and perhaps Parliament will dissolve itself in the face of this inability to achieve .

He added: There is a fear of entering into these problems, which have a first and have no other Al-Tamimi summarized the possibility of failure in the Wednesday session, by saying: Even if the next session fails, it can be postponed to 4/6, but if through this date it will be a problem and at that time the Federal Court referendum .must be done or Parliament is dissolved or the session is continuing

Al-Tamimi said that everyone is waiting for the sixth of next April, and for each incident there is a recent, stressing .that after this date, the MPs are not entitled to an extension   link

Mot:  ... aaaaahhhhhhh - the Joys of Raising the ""Wee Folks"" ~~~~

Mot: ....... Dang! - Who Would Have Guessed! ~~~~woodpecker