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Việt Nam's GDP projected at 7% in 2022: AMRO

7th October, 2022

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has joined many international organisations in revising up Việt Nam’s GDP growth this year thanks to the country’s strong performance since early this year and success in containing inflation.

In its quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook released on Thursday, Việt Nam’s economy is projected to expand by 7 per cent in 2022, up from 6.5 per cent in its July forecast and making it the second-highest gainer in the region this year after Malaysia with expected growth of 7.3 per cent.

Việt Nam’s GDP will likely slow down in the next year to 6.5 per cent, topping the region and followed by the Philippines at 6.3 per cent.

AMRO’s forecast followed recent moves by Moody’s, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) which forecast Việt Nam’s 2022 GDP will reach between 7 per cent and 8.5 per cent. “Việt Nam is doing well,” said AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor at the Thursday meeting.

Though attributing the high GDP growth partly to the low base from last year, Dr. Khor said the opening up of the economy, relaxation on pandemic control, increase in domestic demand, recovery in tourism and successful attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) all contributed to Việt Nam’s quick recovery.

“On top of that, the Government’s policy is quite supportive this year. So, because of all these factors, we expect Việt Nam’s economy to grow strongly,” Khor said. However, Khor pointed out an external risk of import inflation coming from high oil prices. “I mentioned the Vietnamese Government has cut taxes to curb inflation, but that’s not sustainable or the switch you need to refer back to normal,” Khor said, adding the Government needs to start raising the policy rate to contain coming inflation.

For the first time in two years, the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) decided to raise its policy rates by one percentage point on September 23. SBV’s move was deemed inevitable as the FED has been raising interest rates, subsequently putting pressure on exchange rates.

Khor also endorsed the Vietnamese central bank’s move, emphasising Việt Nam’s economy is already recovering very strongly and there’s no need for monetary stimulus at this point in time. “The focus is shifting from supporting growth to containing inflation,” he said.

Việt Nam’s inflation is expected to reach 3.5 per cent this year and drop slightly to 3.3 per cent in 2023. This year, most countries are forecast to see their inflation surpass their targets but in the case of mainland China, Hong Kong and Việt Nam, the expected inflation by year-end will be under the ceiling target.

Regional outlook

For the regional outlook, AMRO revised downwards its short-term growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region due to the continuing strict dynamic zero-COVID policy and real estate sector weakness in China and potential recessions in the United States and the euro area.

The ASEAN+3 region (ASEAN plus China, Japan and the Republic of Korea) is expected to grow by 3.7 per cent this year – down from the 4.3 per cent growth projected in the July forecast.

China’s growth was revised down to 3.8 per cent in 2022 from 4.8 per cent in the previous forecast. Japan and Korea’s GDP were projected at 1.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively.

The ASEAN region alone is slated to grow strongly by 5.3 per cent. The region’s inflation rate for 2022 is now projected to be 6.2 per cent – a full percentage point higher than previously forecast. Growth is expected to increase to 4.6 per cent in 2023 as China’s economy picks up, with inflation moderating to about 3.4 per cent.

The prolonged war in Ukraine is deepening Europe’s energy crisis, pushing it closer to recession. In the United States, aggressive monetary tightening to fight persistently high inflation is intensifying fears of a hard landing. “A simultaneous economic slowdown in the United States and euro area, in conjunction with tightening global financial conditions, would have negative spillover effects for the region through trade and financial channels,” Khor said.

In ASEAN+3, inflation is accelerating. Food and fuel prices remain elevated despite recent easing in key global commodity benchmarks. Subsidy cuts in some economies and depreciating currencies have also pushed prices higher. “Central banks in the region are raising policy interest rates to safeguard price stability and support their currencies. However, the pace of monetary tightening has generally been more measured and gradual than in the United States and the euro area,” Khor said.  LINK

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Samson:  Symposium seeks to foster Vietnam-Korea  co-operation in digital banking

3rd October, 2022

Korea’s digital transformation policy and implications for Việt Nam, Việt Nam’s digital banking transformation policy, the importance of credit information system in digital transformation, the leap towards digitisation and the recent trend of digital banking and payments in Asia were discussed at a symposium in Hà Nội last week.

Organised by Shinhan Bank Vietnam to mark the 30th anniversary of Việt Nam - Korea diplomatic relations, the event discussed the vision for and direction of Việt Nam's digital bank, and sought to foster collaboration between the two countries in investment and development of a secure financial framework.

Attendees included senior officials from the State Bank of Vietnam, the prime minister's economic advisory group, the Korean embassy in Việt Nam, the Korean Financial Services Commission, the Korea Credit Information Service, Shinhan Bank Korea, Shinhan Bank Vietnam, Korean financial companies, and major local banks and fintech companies.

A spokesperson for Shinhan Bank Vietnam said: "This symposium is the driving force for Shinhan Bank to continue its efforts to promote effective digital bank development towards its objective of becoming a leading digital banking in Việt Nam by 2030’. “Furthermore, this is a valuable opportunity for our bank to promote and maintain sustainable financial cooperation between the two countries, contributing to Việt Nam's future socioeconomic growth.”

Shinhan Bank Vietnam established a ‘future bank group’ last May to strengthen internal digital capabilities and respond immediately to the rapidly changing digital financial environment. Since its inception, the future bank group has effectively promoted its capabilities by cooperating with digital enterprises in various industries to provide innovative, safe, and convenient digital banking services.

Its Mobile Banking SOL digital banking application had 800,000 users by the end of August 2022, a big achievement by the bank in its efforts to promote digital banking. LINK

Samson: Việt Nam retains positive economic outlook in short-term: World Bank

28th September, 2022

World Bank experts has forecast Việt Nam's economy to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2022, the highest growth rate among East Asian and Pacific economies. 

According to the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) Economic Update October 2022 released on September 27, WB experts said the growth will be supported by a strong recovery in domestic demand and continued solid performance by export-oriented manufacturing. However, it would revert to normal rates over the medium-term, with 6.7 per cent for 2023 and 6.5 per cent for 2024.

Việt Nam's inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in July on grounds of higher transport costs, which increased by 15.2 per cent. It is projected to accelerate to 3.8 per cent in 2022 and 4.0 per cent in 2023 due to second-round effects of community price impacts.

Its public debt is estimated at 39.9 per cent of GDP in 2022 and 40.5 per cent for 2023, sustainable and well below the threshold of 60 per cent of GDP set by the National Assembly.

Its poverty is expected to decline from 3.7 per cent in 2021 to 3.3 per cent in 2022. The same goes for lower middle-income poverty, which would fall from 3.7 per cent to 3.4 per cent, before ending up at 3.1 per cent in 2023.

Its public expenditures are likely to speed up in the second half of the year, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2022. The deficit is projected to rise to 3.2 per cent next year as the implementation of the 2022-23 support programme picks up.

In the short term, given Việt Nam's ongoing economic recovery and well-controlled inflation, the current accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate whereas a more supportive fiscal policy would hedge against downside risks, including heightened financial risks.  However, if inflation overshoots 4.0 per cent and core inflation hikes up, Vietnamese authorities should consider recalibrating monetary and fiscal policies.

Notably, higher financial sector risks would require intensified prudential supervision, reporting and provisioning on NPLs, and improved corporate insolvency and banking sector resolution frameworks.

In the regional scale, three factors could be a hindrance to regional growth beyond the end of 2022, which are global deceleration, rising debt and policy distortions. The growth is projected to slow to 3.2 per cent this year and accelerate to 4.6 per cent in 2023.

The consumer price index has been on the rise in recent months but remained around target ranges in several major economies. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure is building rapidly in other countries, reflecting mounting energy and food prices, as well as idiosyncratic factors.

In most EAP countries, the rise in public debt during the pandemic was driven primarily by an increase in domestic debt. At the same time, private sector debt remains high, especially household debt in China, Malaysia and Thailand.

Poverty in the region is expected to fall thanks to continued recovery from the pandemic. The pace of poverty reduction returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and the number of poor is projected to reach historic lows.   LINK