Sam Lawrie: The Devastating Effects of Financial Black Swans
Sam Lawrie: The Devastating Effects of Financial Black Swans
Palisades Gold Radio: 9-6-2023
Tom welcomes Sam Lawrie from Adams Bullion to the show. Sam discusses his background in the finance industry and the potential risks associated with leveraged trades.
He describes leverage as like a Ferrari, it can be a lot of fun but you can also wrap it around a tree. He examines the consequences after the Swiss central bank broke the peg between the Swiss Franc and Euro, despite traders applying risk management techniques.
He reflects on the United States still acting as the centerpiece of the world's financial market, and the possible risks of a major sell-off in treasuries, resulting in a potential global financial crisis.
He acknowledges that rules in the financial market can be changed at a moment's notice, another risk investors should be cautious of. The long-term Keynesian policies by central banks have resulted in rising inflation which may ultimately lead to a lack of confidence in a country's currency.
Commodity-producing countries may be in a better position when compared to consuming countries, however, both Australia and Canada have seen issues in their asset bubbles and in particular there housing markets.
He believes silver is lagging due to dollar strength and has the potential to outperform at some point.
Sam believes the Australian dollar is likely to remain weak, aiding in the value of gold in the currency.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Sam's Background
6:18 - Black Swan Events
10:52 - Broker Failure Risk
13:12 - Forex Carry Trades
19:08 - Japan's Approach
22:00 - Treasury Markets
24:10 - Banks & Failures
29:04 - Rates & Rebalancing
31:39 - End of the Road
35:55 - Inflation Outlook
39:22 - Gold Vs. Silver
42:53 - Metals Undervalued
45:27 - Incentives & Thieves 4
8:08 - Bullion & Activisim 4
9:49 - Wrap Up