News, Rumors and Opinions Monday 11-16-2020
KTFA:
Samson: The World Bank: More than 5 million new Iraqis are below the poverty line due to the dual crisis
16th November 2020
The World Bank revealed that the double crisis represented by the drop in oil prices and the epidemic, as well as the increasing government deficit, will push several million more Iraqis to join the class of those below the poverty line
A World Bank report seen by "Al-Eqtisad News" clarified that millions of new Iraqis will join the previous number of pre-crisis poor, which numbered about 10 million poor, calling on the Iraqi government to introduce urgent economic reforms
The report added, that estimates indicate that poverty in Iraq will increase in the short term by 7 to 14 percent, and this means that between 5 million to 7 million Iraqis will become among the new poor because of the dual crisis
Indicating that the brunt of the economic crisis will affect the family's ability to withstand it, and many families may lose the bulk of their income or all of them, especially those working in the private sector, which will force them to exhaust any little savings and use negative coping strategies LINK
TNT:
Harambe: Bloomberg: Southeast Asian Currencies Face Central Bank Hurdles This Week ... Indonesia Rupiah gains 3%.
(11/16/20)
A rally in Southeast Asia’s currencies is petering out as a global surge in coronavirus infections tampered vaccine optimism. Policy outlooks by three central banks this week may offer clues for growth expectations.
Bank of Thailand and Bank Indonesia, whose currencies rallied the hardest last week, will be under scrutiny for any signs of alarm at the pace of appreciation and potential dovish tilts that could diminish their yield advantage. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said last Wednesday there’s room to cut its reserve requirement ratios.
“We see two themes driving markets into year-end,” says Divya Devesh, head of Asean and South-Asia FX research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “Firstly the search for yield and secondly re-rating of growth expectations following vaccine confirmation.”
Global funds have piled into Southeast Asia’s bonds and equity markets as global risk-on sentiment spurred a hunt for higher returns. Inflows into Thai sovereign debt have climbed to the highest in 17 months in November, even though the month is less than half over. Offshore funds are set to be net buyers of Indonesian stocks this month for the first time since May.
Here’s a look at some key currency levels for the region going ahead:
THAILAND:
The baht rose to its highest in 10 months last week, bullishly breaching resistance at its June high and paving the way for further advances. “THB is performing strongly, benefiting both from a return of bond and equity inflows as well as hopes that a vaccine will help boost the tourism industry,” said Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank in Singapore. The baht may have difficulty breaching 30 per dollar level in the near-term, he said. It closed at 30.176 on Friday.
INDONESIA:
The rupiah gained over 3% this month but resistance at 13,878, a June 5 low, remains intact. This level maybe tested if foreign carry trade demand picks up given Indonesian yields are among the highest in the region. Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its key rate on hold at 4% this Thursday. It’s kept rates on hold in its last three meetings to support the rupiah after slashing borrowing costs by 1 percentage point this year.
SINGAPORE:
The Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate started weakening in mid October providing the currency with room to appreciate into year-end. The trade-reliant economy is expected to get cues from October non-oil domestic exports data this Tuesday, which is seen slowing to 5.1% year-on-year according to a Bloomberg survey.
PHILIPPINES:
The Philippine peso has rallied to be Southeast Asia’s best performer this year, bringing into sight the next psychological level of 48 per dollar. The currency closed at 48.21 on Friday. It has been buoyed by a narrowing trade gap, that’s boosted its current account surplus. Overseas remittances this week will also be watched closely after they unexpectedly dropped last month.
MALAYSIA:
The ringgit’s rally against the dollar has stalled at resistance near 4.10 per dollar. Inflation data later in the month could provide clues on growth prospects after the gauge fell 1.4% from the previous year in September.
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Courtesy of Dinar Guru
Jeff We're looking for two things this week. We're looking for the President to sign off on the borrowing law. That way it becomes legal and binding. That would be the first step. At that point they can change the rate at any time. But once they come out and tell you when they plan to make the payment on those salaries the rate has to change before that. It's as simple as that...
USA Brooking Institution Give PM Kadhimi Failure Grade
Currency365: Nov 16, 2020
From Recaps Archives:
Daz: ITS EASY TO BELIEVE IN JUST THE FACTS
I SUSPECT MUCH OF THE STUFF WE HAVE HEARD FROM ALL OVER THE NET OVER THE YEARS CONTAINS AN ELEMENT OF TRUTH..SOME MORE THAN OTHERS OF COURSE.
I DETERMINED LONG AGO THAT THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW DELAYS IN THE PROCESS. BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF COURSE CORRECTIONS AND FALSE STARTS...AND THE RV WAS EVEN USED AT TIMES AS A TOOL TO PRY OPEN A FAULT OR WEAK SPOT THAT NEEDED REPAIR OR ARREST.
WITH ALL PROCESSES YOU MUST SET GOALS AND THOSE GOALS ARE MARKERS TO MEASURE PROGRESS TOWARDS A FINAL SUCCESSFUL RESOLUTION. SOMETIMES THOSE GOALS ARE HIT...AND SOMETIMES THEY ARE MISSED...BUT EITHER WAY YOU ADAPT, ADJUST AND TRY TO NAVIGATE A NEW OR MORE SUCCESSFUL PATH TO THE END OF IT...ULTIMATELY, IT IS JUST A PROCESS.
I ALWAYS GO BACK TO A SINGLE PIECE OF INFORMATION THAT IN PART, SHOWS CLEARLY A FEW SIMPLE FACTS. AND FOR ME, ITS THE FOUNDATION OF MY CONFIDENCE AND TRUST.
WITH THAT SAID, LETS LOOK AT WHAT WE "KNOW".
_________________________________
IRAQ HAS ALWAYS BEEN A WEALTHY, RICH CULTURE WITH A STRONG HERITAGE AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORY.
IRAQ ALWAYS HAD AMPLE RESOURCES AND A STRONG ECONOMY... IN ITS OWN RIGHT.
THEIR MONEY ALWAYS HAD VALUE, HISTORICALLY AND CONSISTENTLY.
DUE TO PRESSURES TO ENACT A LIBERATION OF IRAQ AND EFFECT A REGIME CHANGE...A COALITION OF NATIONS "TURNED OFF THE MONEY (DINAR)" AS PART OF A WAR EFFORT AND STRATEGIC ASSAULT TO DEBASE THE FINANCES OF REVOLT, RESISTANCE AND INSURGENCY AGAINST THAT CHANGE IN 2004.
THERE WAS, AND STILL IS, A PLAN TO GIVE REBIRTH AND REVITALIZE THAT ECONOMY, INFLUENCE THAT CULTURE AND, EVENTUALLY EMBRACE IRAQ, ITS PEOPLE AND THEIR WEALTH AND TRADE INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FOLD.
AND, WHEN A SATISFACTORY CONDITION AND ALIGNMENT OF ALL THE VARIOUS INTERESTS AND POWER STRUCTURES INVOLVED HAVE REACHED A POINT OF REASONABLE SATISFACTION THAT THEIR INTERESTS AND GOALS ARE MET... THEY WILL JUST AS SIMPLY.... "TURN THE MONEY BACK ON".
IT WILL ALL COME TOGETHER WITH A PUBLIC RELEASE AND PERMISSION FOR ALL OF US TO EXCHANGE IN ANY MANNER WE WANT, ALMOST ANYWHERE WE WANT...AND IT WILL BE A SAFE, ORGANIZED, ULTIMATELY FAIR AND REASONABLY SIMPLE BUSINESS TRANSACTION.
HANG IN THERE BUT...KEEP LIVIN'.
WE'RE READY WHEN THEY'RE READY.