MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Friday Night "Exchange Rates are Sensitive" 12-4-2020
KTFA:
MilitiaMan: An economist calls for deleting the three zeros from the dinar to strengthen the local currency.
Twig said: It is known that the monetary mass in circulation is about 60 (?) trillion dinars, which is not available at the Central Bank of Iraq, the banks and the public, and it is a large monetary block compared to the economic transactions of the Iraqi economy and that a large proportion of this block suffers from compactness and therefore this does not help the Central Bank of Iraq in drawing a policy Effective cash calling on the central bank to delete three zeros or gradual deletion of zeros to make the value of the dinar appear at a higher value and that the processes of evaluation and monetary balance will be formed quickly in the market economy.
" He added: The monetary mass can become approximately 15 to 25 trillion (billion?) dinars and the value of the new dinar converges to the value of the dollar, which facilitates the process of calculation and allows small and new denominations of cash to appear in the money market. LINK
MilitiaMan: The economist in the above seems to b suggesting a new dinar is to be the value of the dollar.. If that is not leakage I don't know what is. There are people on the ground in Iraq talking about the exchange rate change that is coming. This is evidence of it too.
We know they printed a new issue of currency from the CBI site, imo. They spent money and large sums of money on it. To adjust to or converge to the value of the dollar, they will have a need for the new issue.
With the recent article about the parallel, secondary and cash markets we can deduce in short order that they are gearing for a change and pronto.. imo.. The numbers (exchange rate) are sensitive. They need to be undercover until the last moment.. imo..
Thus, if they have the COM meeting and they have the (correction) rate, then with banks be closed tomorrow, one may think a window is about to close.. The currency auction of old will be of a new.. imo.. sooner than later.. imo ~ MM
Samson: In a lengthy message to Baghdad ... Kurdistan government: We committed ourselves to the agreement, and the time has come to pay the benefits
4th December, 2020
On Thursday, the Kurdistan Regional Government published the text of a lengthy message sent by Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to the Federal Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi regarding the region's financial dues.
In a statement received by Shafaq News Agency, she said that Barzani recently sent a letter to Federal Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi in which he talked about constitutional means to resolve outstanding disputes, and emphasized the principles of partnership, consensus and balance, and the region's permanent readiness to settle these problems.
In his message, the Prime Minister touched on the initiatives undertaken by the Kurdistan Region since the ninth ministerial cabinet was formed, to settle disputes by sending official delegations to Baghdad, during the previous government headed by Adel Abdul Mahdi and the current government headed by Al-Kazemi.
And the Prime Minister of Kurdistan confirmed in his message that, after the formation of the Al-Kazemi government, the Kurdistan Region agreed to the message of Minister of Finance Ali Abdul-Amir Allawi, after which intensive meetings were held between the two sides, which resulted in the approval of the Kurdistan Regional Government on all the items put forward to reach a sustainable agreement on the draft federal budget.
According to the statement, the letter also dealt with the agreement on the clause on settling pending financial matters between the two sides, which was confirmed by the General Secretariat of the Federal Council of Ministers in its letter No. (13229) dated 15/8/2020.
The text of the message stated, "The aforementioned agreement stipulated that the Federal Ministry of Finance should finance the region at an amount of 320 billion dinars per month to pay some of the region’s expenditures. This amount was determined on the basis of an equation based on the federal government's estimates of oil imports from the region’s oil production and other regional imports."
In his message, the Prime Minister said: "This means that the federal government has deducted all oil and non-oil imports of the region from its actual entitlements from the federal budget, thus negating the justifications for accusing the region of not committing to the delivery of oil and non-oil revenues." He continued: "Despite this agreement, the Kurdistan Region did not receive any amount for the months (May, June, July, October) for the year 2020, in addition to not disbursing the dues and salaries of the Peshmerga despite its inclusion in the allocations of the Ministry of Defense."
The Prime Minister emphasized that the method of passing the Fiscal Deficit Financing Law for 2020 is a violation of the principles of balance, partnership and consensus, and stressed that the Kurdistan Region was and still is fully prepared to fulfill its oil and financial obligations, and in return it deserves to be paid to the region in full.
He said, "We would like to confirm the firm's position and vision of the regional government to reach an agreement based on the provisions of the constitution in light of the draft Federal Budget Law for the year 2021, which we previously explained according to our books numbered (1839) on 5/10/2020, and (379) in 10/18/2020, and our special message to your country in May 2020, and at the present time we believe that it is necessary to instruct the Federal Ministry of Finance to pay the region's benefits for the months referred to above, according to what was stated in the joint agreement on 8/15/2020.
The Prime Minister had confirmed during the last meeting of the Council of Ministers that he was in continuous contact with Al-Kazemi and the Federal Cabinet, and they had made promises to solve the issue of the financial rights of the region's citizens in the next few days. LINK
Samson: A high-ranking delegation from the Kurdistan Regional Government heads to Baghdad
3rd December, 2020
A high-ranking delegation from the Kurdistan Regional Government headed from Erbil International Airport on Thursday evening to Baghdad to discuss with the federal government about the country's financial budget for 2021.
An informed source in the Kurdistan Region told Shafaq News that the delegation is headed by the region's Finance Minister Awat Sheikh Janab, and the membership of Khaled Shawani, the Minister of Regional Affairs, and Abdul Hakim Khusraw, Director General of Coordination and Follow-up in the Council of Ministers.
The source, who requested anonymity, added that the delegation also includes Directors General of Budget and Accounts. He explained that the delegation will meet with officials of the Iraqi Federal Ministry of Finance to discuss the country's draft fiscal budget for 2021 next year.
Earlier Thursday, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, sent a letter to the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, asking him to abide by the agreement concluded between them last August, which includes sending Baghdad to 320 billion dinars per month to the region.
Barzani said that the Kurdistan Region did not receive any amount for the months of May, June, July, and October of 2020, in addition to not disbursing the dues and salaries of the Peshmerga despite its inclusion in the allocations of the Ministry of Defense. He pointed out that this amount was agreed upon after the federal government deducted all oil and non-oil imports of the region from its actual entitlements from the federal general budget. LINK
MilitiaMan: Interesting that September is not included. But, the even more interesting point is to me that they say the Oct payments were not made. They may have in other areas, however, they were not for the Kurds.. I am not sure they paid the Oct and I hear they have not paid the Nov either.. Why? Didn't they state that the 2019 FMLA was to be applied to the 2020 budget at 1/12th ratio through August? They mentioned back then that 2020 would be different and the last 4 months would be sorted differently. They still may have that in the plan.. We may find out tomorrow too, since the 2021 is to be at the COM. Will the rate be different in reflection of the last 4 months? ...
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MilitiaMan: A deputy sets the date for the budget to arrive in Parliament, and confirms that we need 3-4 weeks to approve it
12:55 - 12/03/2020
MP Mudhar Al-Karawi set, on Thursday, the date for the 2021 budget law to reach the House of Representatives, while stressing the need for 3-4 weeks to be approved by the parliament.
Al-Karawi said in an interview with "Al-Maouma", that "the 2021 budget law will arrive in the House of Representatives next week in any case, pointing out that the Saturday session of the Council of Ministers on discussing the budget law will decide the choice by voting on it."
Al-Karawi added, "The budget law needs 3-4 weeks for extensive discussions about its paragraphs before voting on them." He explained, "The period may decrease or increase according to what is included in the articles in the budget, especially since it is not known until the moment and what are the paragraphs contained in it, especially with the government's promises that it will include reform measures within what is known as the white paper in order to correct the course of the national economy and maximize financial revenues."
A government source had confirmed in a previous statement to "the information" that the cabinet would submit the budget bill to the parliament in the middle of next month, indicating that the cabinet would hold a special session to review the bill early next week.
MilitiaMan: We talked about they have sensitive data or numbers. They tell us above they are to have extensive discussions on paragraphs (rate/correction, imo) that are not known until the last moment.
I mentioned this today already. Exchange rates are sensitive. They are not put out to ponder on long.. Once out, there is action to take and quickly for many reasons. Some can be found in the link below. Note page 140 - 141 for interesting bits.. imo ~ MM